What hapenned to Candy?

[beertapper]

Looked like he was eased up before the turn...

[Audioslavery]

Pace was clearly too fast.

[bisket]

the post killed him. either run like a scaredy cat to get position or be stuck 5 wide the whole race. neither scenerio put him in the money imop. once you get a horse going like that early its very rare you can get them to slow down and relax after that 1st 1/4. especially on a young horse. he'll be a tough call wagering wise again in the preakness if they choose to go. his style would suite pimlico...

[JustRalph]

he looked like he went wrong to me. He stopped and backed up a crowd behind him

[Stevie Belmont]

Off track did not help one bit--the red flag was when Sadler said he did not gallop out right on the sloppy track...

[RXB]

I rarely bet the Derby, and didn't this time either, but two things come into play for the race:

1. The typical Derby pace is too faster for the frontrunner(s), and in this case it seemed almost assured that they would be going too quickly:
2. Mike Welsch's workout reports are excellent and are ignored at one's own risk.

The pace was going to be fast, and Welsch's report on the last workout of Sidney's Candy was not favourable.

[joanied]

Yes...I agree...I liked the interveiw they had with him on HRTV. Hope that horse is OK.

[ghostyapper]

He was way too head strong. He ran a 22 quarter and that was fighting the jock

[bisket]

i guess all those 1's in his races should have told everyone something. it seems to me the inside bias in the STRETCH :p AT SANTA ANITA helped candy to finish with such good times. misleading many handicappers into thinking he was better than he actually was. think about it. in the sa derby he started in the 1 hole ran over the SEALED 1 PATH AT SANTA ANITA AFTER HE BROKE FROM THE GATE AND IN THE STRETCH. SO FOR 4 FURLONGS AND PARTICULARLY THE LAST 2 FURLONGS HE WAS RUNNING ON A SURFACE THAT WAS SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT PRODUCED THESE TRACK RECORDS 2 YEARS AGO (2008). while the rest of the field was running on the same old speed killing pro ride surface.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmunYEbmmc0&feature=related
all weather track records at the bottom
any wonder why his finishing times were so impressive :confused: i started thread a few weeks back trying to bring this to light, but was ridiculed by some whose speed or "performance" figures that handicappers purchase stated otherwise. a fountain of misinformation it was referred to... it seems maybe they were the "fountain of misinformation". its tough selling things to people that have inaccurate information. i was just trying to be a nice guy :rolleyes:

[andymays]

Candy didn't have what it takes.

[toussaud]

he really was never a serious contender for me. i was not crazy for that pedigree on dirt. but moreso than that, he was running faster than he was used to running. conveyance basically did sidney's candy in.

[bisket]

Candy didn't have what it takes.
you had me scratching my head on him. to me there was just a little to many negatives for his odds. i felt you could make just as good a case for american lion with better odds. turns out they are probably equal in ability :D looking at candy's path to the derby. his works were the type that they treated the preps like they were more important than the derby. he was worked at 6 furs on a regular basis from jan staight up to the race. he had to regress either this race or the next or he was the next cigar...

[Tom]

A synth horse quitting like that?
Egads!

[PhantomOnTour]

Pace was clearly too fast.
Yep, he was frontrunner who didn't go fast early but somehow got clear leads. When confronted with an uncomfortably fast early pace he wilted. Joe had a tough choice from the 20 hole. The Derby ain't the place to teach a colt to rate for the first time, but gunning it from that post will kill you. So what did I do? I used on top on some tickets :bang:

[Stevie Belmont]

The post killed nothing, in fact he got right into position perfectly--but he never settled and that was it behind a fast pace...

Sadler said he did not gallop out that well in a work on the slop--saying he did not relish it??

That was a big red flag--did not care for those words

[Stevie Belmont]

Well if people look at how many horses tried dirt from poly this spring?

American Lion, Line of David, Make Music For Me, Evening Jewel, Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise--all won or ran well...

People can blame the track he stopped--I think he is a quality horse--He certainly was not himself

Anyway you look at--he tossed a stinker and that's that

Hope he gets a break and targets the Haskell

Super Saver and Borel were great--and Todd got his first Derby

I though is was a great Kentucky Derby this year.

[bisket]

The post killed nothing, in fact he got right into position perfectly--but he never settled and that was it behind a fast pace...

Sadler said he did not gallop out that well in a work on the slop--saying he did not relish it??

That was a big red flag--did not care for those words
he wants to be in front no matter how fast he has to go to get there. all of his preps fell into his lap, and he was exactly where he need to be on the track (inside in the stretch) to help him finish. he was getting getting a synthetic type pace, while running on a surface that was closer to dirt than the rest of the fields he raced against. the track is what assisted him in getting decent closing times in his preps. not his "stamina". when a track plays like santa anita did this winter there won't be a preponderance of statistical data to bring it to light. it will only assist horses in very narrow type situations.

[bisket]

Well if people look at how many horses tried dirt from poly this spring?

American Lion, Line of David, Make Music For Me, Evening Jewel, Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise--all won or ran well...

People can blame the track he stopped--I think he is a quality horse--He certainly was not himself

Anyway you look at--he tossed a stinker and that's that

Hope he gets a break and targets the Haskell

Super Saver and Borel were great--and Todd got his first Derby

I though is was a great Kentucky Derby this year.
i would be a bettor who would definately look at him for a win in the haskell. i do think he's a quality horse, but not at 1 1/4 mile. 1 mile to 1 1/8 mile are his best distances like most candy ride and storm cat prodgeny.

[Robert Fischer]

he got ate up

[Robert Goren]

He may well be a "poly" horse.

[WinterTriangle]

i guess all those 1's in his races should have told everyone something. it seems to me the inside bias in the STRETCH :p AT SANTA ANITA helped candy to finish with such good times.

I have to disagree, bisket.

Anyone who doesn't believe that running in slop/mud didn't change the outcome of this race is dreaming.

I took sid out of all my wagers precisely because even his trainer said he and LoD didn't run well in the mud.

If you're going to use "the track assisted him" then you would have to use "the track didn't assist him" in slop.

It had nothing to do with a bias at SA. It had to do with mud, post position, etc. His "stamina" was not suspect, the horse is good to 10F easily.

[bisket]

it was the bias in the stretch. thats my story and i'm sticking to it.

[Rackon]

I'm with WT, his pedigree alone tells you he should have some versatility - distance and surface.

Telamo lit the rocket to get position to the first turn, SC then would not relax. It happens.

I also believe the mud had a negative impact on him - neither SC or nor LoD worked well in the slop.

Still think this is a classy horse and will be interested to watch him in future.

[DeanT]

He was sent like a quarter horse from the gate. Man, he was running out of his skin the first 220. I thought I was watching a 5F sprint at Mountaineer. I don't think any horse in history would finish within the same zip code as the winner off that start.

[Smarty Cide]

he definetly is no big brown

[bisket]

I have to disagree, bisket.

Anyone who doesn't believe that running in slop/mud didn't change the outcome of this race is dreaming.

I took sid out of all my wagers precisely because even his trainer said he and LoD didn't run well in the mud.

If you're going to use "the track assisted him" then you would have to use "the track didn't assist him" in slop.

It had nothing to do with a bias at SA. It had to do with mud, post position, etc. His "stamina" was not suspect, the horse is good to 10F easily.
sid's mom and dad would yield stamina if they were coupled with a solid stamina influence on the other end. a storm cat and candy ride= speed. a candy ride with say a broad brush mare would have the stamina for a classic race for instance. sid's mom and dad together is more of a mile to 1 1/8 mile horse. the blood tells me that, and watching the horse run tells me that. yeah sid could win at a mile and a quarter if he was let alone on the lead and running 24-48-112-137-201 and change. another words the race would need to fall into his lap. sorta like all his preps...

[JPinMaryland]

He was sent like a quarter horse from the gate. Man, he was running out of his skin the first 220. I thought I was watching a 5F sprint at Mountaineer. I don't think any horse in history would finish within the same zip code as the winner off that start.


I know. The pace was totally insane, I looked up and saw 1.10 and change for 3/4 and just pointed to it and shrugged. That would be too fast on most of the faster days. Unless you're spend a buck. Did Big Brown run from the front like that? I didnt really follow him as much.

[WinterTriangle]

a storm cat and candy ride= speed



Candy Ride set a track record at 10F ..... brilliant speed and classic stamina. For goodness sake, he beat Medaglia D'Oro. Like Hardspun, brilliant speed that can be carried a distance is very dangerous.


Misremembered seemed to do pretty well at 1-1/8 and 1-1/4. Chocolate Candy, too. Besides, it's too early to say what "kind" Candy Ride throws in that he only has 3 crops of racing age. Sidney's distaff family has lots of stamina, from his 2nd dam Exchange who was a multiple graded stakes winner at 1-1/4 and 1-1/2 miles.

I still don't see distance as sid's main problem on Sat.[/size]

[Robert Fischer]

this horse is really a 7furlong horse.

Sadler has an edge, and Santa Anita wasn't averse to speed horses.

Sidney's Candy is a lot better than the other Sadler derby entry. SC does have some natural ability and some gameness. Call it class or quality or whatever you like, SC is not a POS, even if he didn't have the medications and running on a favorable track. No he isn't anywhere as good a classic distance racehorse as LAL, but I think he still beats Lucky in the SADerby with both having a clean trip over that track with the same training up to that point.

He isn't a real big guy, and he's been trained to exploit the stamina stuff they have going, meaning they put him on the lead. It's the same stuff Pletcher has been doing - if you have an edge, they've found that it is safer to just send em around in front. Most others aren't going to match that cruising speed and your horse just keeps going.

I don't even think Sadler believed in this horse, but after the San Felipe he's being interviewed and feeding the Craigs a whole bunch of BS because the horses win looked attractive and most don't know any better.

[Stevie Belmont]

The bottom line is this--watched racing long enough to know some horses don't care for sloppy/sealed surfaces period.


People can debate all they want about numbers, biases and whatever else...

The race is a toss.

[Black Ruby]

he definetly is no big brown

might be if they could still use steroids.

[ghostyapper]

The post killed nothing, in fact he got right into position perfectly--but he never settled and that was it behind a fast pace...


It took a lot more energy to get into the right position from post 20 rather had he come out of post 5. Also Talamo had to give him his head to get into position and was never able to get it back from him, hence the sub 23 quarter.

[bisket]

yes stevie i agree it was a toss. i don't think you have any real evidence about my contention from the derby. we will find out in time. this type decision is "feel" type of thing. bottom line we're all good handicappers that can look at a situation like this and get it wrong and still be winning players. in a situation like this you just have to go with how you feel because its your green backs your putting on the line. you know going forward i still think 1 1/4 mile may be in sid's scope, but the situation has to be right.

[bisket]

a general rule i use on horses like sid is when they are in great form they are tough to beat, but their form doesn't last. why? because it takes alot out of them to run a route the way sid does. this is why horses like say zenyatta or lucky are always better plays going a route. they have true stamina and their form lasts longer. where as with speed horses they are good for a race or two and then its best to get off them. its just the way i look at speed like this at a route. play them when they're hot, but drop them after a race or two. eskendara falls into this group by the way.