My thoughts on the Derby

[PaceAdvantage]

...are posted on the home page if anyone is interested.

http://www.paceadvantage.com

Yeah, I know it's an ego trip to put it on the front page...so sue me... :lol:

[PhantomOnTour]

Noble's Promise is a brawler, a fighter, a competitor but he has lost ground to the leader from the 1/8 pole to the wire in every route race he's been in except the Cash Call. I see him there or thereabouts but just can't support him for top honors....he will be on my tix underneath though.

Good luck to ya Pace. :ThmbUp:

[DRIVEWAY]

Ultimately the game is all about making decisions. Congratulations for taking the time to go on the record. You've had your fair share of success in the past.

Good Luck today.

[FenceBored]

Does anyone else sometimes hear "Lookin Unlucky" when someone says "Lookin at Lucky?"

[tribecaagent]

Oh no PA..Hank Goldberg just picked Noble's Promise

[redshift1]

Wow... I don't have any of yours ... you must have liked the Arkansas Derby
here's mine

Awesome Act
Sidney's Candy
Looking At Lucky
Devil May care
Stately Victor

[Bobzilla]

Thoughtful analysis, Pace. As much as I think NOBLE'S PROMISE is one of the more talented in the field, I still can't get past the breeding of Cuvee on top of Clever Trick. Stikes me more as good 8 or 8.5f breeding. He definitely had a less than clean trip in the Arkansas Derby and maybe if the early fractions aren't as fast as most are predicting then maybe he can explode off moderate fractions on a surface that might be to his liking. I need to remind myself that I didn't like Closing Argument's breeding for 10f either back in 2005 and he damn near won, so maybe it matters on the specific Derby whether or not this is a variable that should be given a lot of weight. NP may have the talent level to outrun his pedigree, I wouldn't be surprised.

I can't remember handicapping a KD in which I felt the bar was this low. It seems as though a performance figure, or adjusted speed figure, in the mid to high 90s could win. So I don't really think that it would take all that much improvement from any number of these guys (and gal) to win this thing which makes it a very good betting race.

My horse is CONVEYANCE, who I suspect after his last race, a hiccup in his current cycle which isn't uncommon, might be ready to improve off of his somewhat fast Southwest two races back. Rather than excessive rating, I think this guy would prefer to gear up off of somewhat quicker fractions than what he set at Sundland. Moreover, I don't think Endorsement is all that bad a colt. As long as he isn't forced by LINE OF DAVID to go too fast, I predict that two ticks to the half quicker than par might be within his comfort zone and an improved performance in the low 100s might be possible. At odds in the 20s/1, he and LOD might be affodrd the necessary safe quarter to effectively set up shop on the front. Is anyone really going to be doing much running in the lane in this thing from off the pace if the fractions aren't wildly fast. Maybe DUBLIN, NP or ICE BOX to some degree, but I might approach this Derby with the mindset that the fractions will be moderate to moderate fast and that will be okay with the still improving Baffert trained gray grandson of HOLY BULL.

I'm going:

:12: Conveyance
:17: Dublin
:4: Super Saver