Something I dont understand...

[JPinMaryland]

If you believe in pace handicapping, I think most of us do to some degree, didnt Line of David run a hell of a race in the Ark derby?

If so what is the knock against him??

[PaceAdvantage]

It was a humongous effort for him, that's probably part of it...tough to come off that kind of effort and then win the Kentucky Derby...I say he regresses a bit...plus this field is so packed with speed, it certainly won't be easy for him near the front.

[JPinMaryland]

yeah I can understand that sort of thinking. The way I see it, he was 17-1 and had every reason to quit after setting the pace. The fact that he was a longshot and didnt give in suggests he must be rapidly improving. Recently I have been looking more at post time odds, in order to get an idea of which horses might be rapidly improving. I think he fits the bill for rapidly improving looking at it that way...

[MNslappy]

I was on him as the one bomb at the top of my exacta, but I keep hearing negative reports about the way he's been working at CD. So now I dont know what to do...

Maiden to Allowance to Grade I winner, bam bam bam.
Improved his figs every race.
According to Bris all of them were above par in terms of pace.
And he led them all gate to wire. And they were all at a mile or more.

I want to believe.

They go from the SA poly to turf, a new rider, and add blinkers and suddenly he blossoms....

Just don't know about those work reports.

[JustRalph]

I watched two work vids on him. The first one.....he looked agitated on the wet track. The second was a much more dry track and he looked full of himself and ready to go.....but they were constraining him........... who knows what happens if it gets sloppy

[JPinMaryland]

he's enuf of a bomber I will prolly leave him on all my exotics just cause I dont want to find out later he was the one rapidly improving horse.

ANother angle on mud: I cant recall what race it was, but we began talking about large vs small horses and whether a small horse might have an advantage in slop as they are nimbler vs big giant horses that really dig deep. Do we have any idea which horses are more in the Northern Dancer/Sunday Silence model?

oh yeah blinkers off in last race. ANother sign he's rapidly improving.

Going from that transcript: Beyer dismisses him quite cavalierly, Moss says maybe, if I recall.

[WinterTriangle]

Watch his workouts.

Sadler may scratch him, IMHO. I don't think sid or lod like slop and rain

[JPinMaryland]

actuallly Moss doesnt like him either.. :confused:

[keithw84]

Maiden to Allowance to Grade I winner, bam bam bam.
Improved his figs every race.


Sounds like Big Brown

[Skanoochies]

Only three weeks since his last race. Is that enuf time off a tough stretch battle 6f work 1:15b 4f 1:02 nothing to get excited about either. Your call. :confused:

[JPinMaryland]

Line o David Seems to be off most people's radar...Paddy OPrado and SuperSaver seem to be dropping in odds...

[Dave Schwartz]

It was a humongous effort for him, that's probably part of it...tough to come off that kind of effort and then win the Kentucky Derby...I say he regresses a bit...plus this field is so packed with speed, it certainly won't be easy for him near the front.

One of the things that came up in our Kentucky Derby Webinar was that ranking high off of the speed rating from the last race was actually a negative! The race had to be good enough (within 5 points) relative to the horse's top but actually ranking 1st was not a good thing.

The top 4 from "last race speed rating" did win 4 of the last 8 Derbies.

The top 4 qualifiers are:

Line of David
Super Saver
Dublin
Mission Impazible

[JPinMaryland]

what does that mean "last race speed rating?"

BRIS shows Am Lion, DEans Kitten, DEvil May Care and Ice Box as the top 4 speed ratings in the last race (all of them 101). what is your parameter here?

[MNslappy]

Beyers vs BRIS speed ratings

[Dave Schwartz]

Not BRIS. Not Beyers.

Those ratings were made using my par time based numbers.

[JPinMaryland]

okay. Interesting to see such a discrepancy I had the Beyers around here somewhere. what did they come up with..?