Derby Picks as of Friday Night

[Dave Schwartz]

Super Saver
Dublin

[PaceAdvantage]

Man...you're copying me! lol

I like Super Saver...also like Noble's Promise...Dublin, Conveyance and Line of David round out my top five...

[Marlin]

Man...you're copying me! lol

I like Super Saver...also like Noble's Promise...Dublin, Conveyance and Line of David round out my top five...Close to mine. Take out Dublin and add Awesome Act for my top five.

[DeanT]

I work for two hours Wed night to the wee hours constructing tickets with Super Saver, thinking I am getting north of 15-1 (he was over that at Betfair) and today I talk to like 10 people and they all like this horse.

I feel like I am bidding on a cabbage patch kid, four years after they went hot. :D

[InsideThePylons-MW]

As a breeder, I'm rooting for Dublin due to having a nice Afleet Alex colt standing next to his mama.

As a bettor, he won't be on a ticket.

[Maverick58034]

American Lion
Awesome Act
Mission Impazible

[AZWrobel]

Super Saver is actually the favorite in the race right now with advance wagering odds showing him at 7 to 1. We might have the highest favorite in derby history which will make for some big prices. I like Ice Box to rally and win in the mud with Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible and Awesome Act all with a shot

[JustRalph]

both on my exacta ticks....... along with 4-6 others............ :lol:

[tribecaagent]

Stately Victor.

He's my man in the big dance.

[DeanT]

Super Saver is actually the favorite in the race right now with advance wagering odds showing him at 7 to 1. We might have the highest favorite in derby history which will make for some big prices. I like Ice Box to rally and win in the mud with Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible and Awesome Act all with a shot

At betfair, which should be a better indication of final odds, Lookin is 9-2, Sidney 8-1, Awesome Act 10-1, Ice Box 13-1 and Super Saver 14-1. That is with about a 5% takeout, which will close up closer to post time. If I had to guess right now I think Lookin at Lucky ends up at 7-2 on the board. Maybe 4-1 in the soup.

[shots]

Super Saver
Ice Box
Lookin At Lucky
Line Of David

[Dave Schwartz]

Interesting that almost nobody has mentioned Lucky.

[tribecaagent]

Man...you're copying me! lol

I like Super Saver...also like Noble's Promise...Dublin, Conveyance and Line of David round out my top five...

PA.....aren't Conveyance, Line of David, and many others (Super Saver among them) supposed to form the top flight?

[bucksboy]

Ice Box ....... rain or shine ....too many possibilities ... have to take a stand... have a 100.00 double with Blind Luck .... most wide open Derby
I have ever seen ....esp. with the slop. Best of luck to all

[Niko]

Right now the early money is all the casual bettors and lottery players, look at how all the 50-1 shots are bet down...good to see the betfair odds.

If Lookin at Lucky wins I'll feel like a fool, highest rated horse for me and I'm betting against. Will use on top as a saver though

[DeanT]

I am assuming that the early cash on Super Saver is a combo of Borel and slop, looking for last years lightning in a bottle. I wish someone else was riding him, for better odds, if that is a correct assumption.

I like Lookin at Lucky. I just cant place him on a ticket because I want to try and make a good score.

I see Mike M's picks were in the paper today. He likes Lookin at Lucky, but seems to want to bet Awesome Act. Since I dont like AA very much at all, and Mike is 50X the capper as me, it is probably a good bet.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horses/triple/derby/2010-04-30-derby-cover_N.htm

[chickenhead]

Like a witness to a mugging in a mud bog, the Derby will leave us all feeling dirty and displeased.

I'm down with cheap speed for a cheap, strung out, dirty low rent kind of race.

[PaceAdvantage]

PA.....aren't Conveyance, Line of David, and many others (Super Saver among them) supposed to form the top flight?Can't you tell I'm looking for a little speed? Not necessarily on the lead, but a horse like Noble's Promise seems ideal to me...I'm having a hard time separating Noble's Promise from Super Saver.

The fact that SS is more a need to lead type might sway me to Noble's Promise, but NP's breeding doesn't exactly scream 10 furlongs, although his off track breeding is exceptional...might be the thing that carries him home...

I think you've just convinced me to put Noble's Promise on top...

[DeanT]

Like a witness to a mugging in a mud bog, the Derby will leave us all feeling dirty and displeased.

I'm down with cheap speed for a cheap, strung out, dirty low rent kind of race.

If there was one more line, it would be like a really bad Haiku.:)

I am thinking the same thing might happen. See how the track is playing I guess........ and stupidly I already handicapped my pick 4's already for fast.

Anyway, domoaregato Chick.

[JustRalph]

Line of David
Can he get over to the rail from the :5: hole and stay there ?

Super Saver
If you pick Line of David You gotta pick this guy

Lookin at Lucky
Can he get through the traffic

Dean's Kitten
Longshot play, better than he looks on paper. Form play too.
If memory serves he won same race as Hard Spun on Poly
and Hard Spun took to Churchill pretty well........

****I can't seperate this group by more than a Couple of lengths.

This should be fun to see..........

[plainolebill]

I'm betting Awesome Act to win and keying him in the exotics using Dublin, Nobles Promise, Conveyance and Super Saver. Got some other shot in the dark bets going using a few longshot/favorite combos.

Good luck everyone.

[46zilzal]

When it rains, young horses have trouble coming later...I'll watch a few before committing to any...EXOTIC betting only as this field is too close to call a single scenario taking place.

If the rains are heavy at post, there is very good chance for a runaway, who would never be considered on a dry course, to hang on to be in the money

[TiznowfaninNY]

Sidney's Candy
American Lion
Devil May Care
Jackson Bend
Mission Impazible

[magwell]

tri box 4 12 15 16 20 my play :cool:

[Spendabuck85]

I'm alive in the Oaks/Derby double to Lookin At Lucky and Mission Impazible

[raybo]

Stately Victor, Sidney's Candy, American Lion, Conveyance, Super Saver

[BIG HIT]

conveyance
lookin at lucky
super saver

[Tiderunner]

Paddy O'Prado
Icebox
Lookin at Lucky

[Trotman]

:2: Ice Box
And key :2: on to :1: , :4: , :16: , :20: for the tri
Good Luck to all

[garyoz]

So wide open and in the slop, should go for a price....which probably means it will be the three lowest odds.... I hate Lookin at Lucky, but agree with Dave that it is interesting no one is mentioning him.

Every wise guy seems to be on Super Saver. I am using American Lion in the back end of my gimmicks. Will be using Awesome Again, Super Saver, Lookin, on top on well diversified tickets. This race is really gambling.

[098poi]

Last year I was in Florida watching with my Dad who was not well. I had to fly back a month later and he died on June 11th. I still love you Dad! I associate playing golf with my Dad more than horseracing so today I am going to play before the Derby. Should be a great day actually! My picks (better post them before I completely change my mind)

:12: Conveyance and :17: Dublin in the win spots and

:1: :7: :12: :13: :15: :16: :17: :20:
:1: :7: :12: :13: :15: :16: :17: :20:

underneath for the tri (84$)

If I don't bet that will insure a win and big payoff. :D

Have a safe and happy Derby all!!!!!!!!!!!!

[overthehill]

I like conveyance as a long shot for many reasons, but i would not be surprised if the filly wins.

[jonnielu]

Super Saver
Dublin

The way it shapes up, it seems like a group bet may be the way to go this year. But, my eyes have to turn to Calvin Borel as perhaps being a big factor once again, due to his mastery of piloting the winning trip in recent years. His mount, Super Saver also comes up as the Ability-X Ratings "Simple" pick, and you have to wonder if this throws and edge to Calvin for his classic ride.

Super saver is without the kind of standout speed that we saw in Big Brown and Mine That Bird, but he does possess an edge that is reminiscent of Street Sense. the question might be, can Calvin dole it out as wisely as he did aboard Street Sense. Is this the Pletcher/Borel plan? In 2007, Pletcher saddled 5, but couldn't beat the Borel ride with any.

The distance, the crowd, the conditions... would seem to work against any outside posts, but may supply opportunity to a couple of "slow" horses that are reasonbly close to the rail. The Ability-X "Key", Stately Victor, and the big closer, Ice Box might be the ones possessing a burst from the quarter pole today due to the distinct lack of front end speed.

The shape of the race, and conditions, may leave Line of David as the only capable horse to go from the gate, if left un-pressed, he might hold up on a sloppy track. At one and a quarter, a Filly with sufficient ability, such as Devil May Care... is always a threat to win.

1 Lookin At Lucky 3 C LA o 126 Gomez Garrett K. Baffert Bob
2 Ice Box 3 C LA 126 Lezcano Jose Zito Nicholas P.
3 Noble's Promise 3 C LA 126 Martinez Willie McPeek Kenneth G.
4 Super Saver 3 C LA 126 Borel Calvin H. Pletcher Todd A.
5 Line Of David 3 C LA 126 Bejarano Rafael Sadler John W.
6 Stately Victor 3 C LA 126 Garcia Alan Maker Michael J.
7 American Lion 3 C LA 126 Flores David Romero Harty Eoin G.
8 Dean's Kitten 3 C LA 126 Albarado Robby Maker Michael J.
9 Make Music For Me 3 C LA 126 Rosario Joel Barba Alexis
10 Paddy O'prado 3 C LA 126 Desormeaux Kent J. Romans Dale L.
11 Devil May Care 3 F LA b 121 Velazquez John R. Pletcher Todd A.
12 Conveyance 3 C LA 126 Garcia Martin Baffert Bob
13 Jackson Bend 3 C LA 126 Smith Mike E. Zito Nicholas P.
14 Mission Impazible 3 C LA 126 Maragh Rajiv Pletcher Todd A.
15 Discreetly Mine 3 C LA 126 Castellano Javier Pletcher Todd A.
16 Awesome Act 3 C LA 126 Leparoux Julien R. Noseda Jeremy
17 Dublin 3 C LA 126 Thompson Terry J. Lukas D. Wayne
18 Backtalk 3 C L 126 Mena Miguel Amoss Thomas M.
19 Homeboykris 3 G L 126 Dominguez Ramon A. Dutrow, Jr. Richard E.
20 Sidney's Candy 3 C LA 126 Talamo Joseph Sadler John W.

[Tom]

Interesting that almost nobody has mentioned Lucky.
Well, he is my main pick..so far.
I gotta see the track today, but I've been looking at Looking at Lucky for a while, and I am not stuttering.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I picked Ice Box on top.

[reckless]

My picks:

1-Ice Box
2-Super Saver
3-Devil May Care
4-Dublin
5-Awesome Act

I will key Ice Box and Super Saver top and bottom with the others in the usual gimmicks. I also made a 5-ply exacta box and keyed top three picks in pick 3s.

Along with the rest of the racing world I am alive in the Oaks-Derby daily double with all five selections.

I plan to make win-place bets with Ice Box and Super Saver, and 'save' with the others if their odds seem a little too much out of line.

Good to luck to each and every one in the PA family both today and every day!

[iwearpurple]

At the end of the day the winners will say "I really got value on that horse".

Excellent betting opportunities with no clear cut favorite.

My picks

1. Sidney's Candy
2. Lookin At Lucky
3. Paddy O'Prado
4. Dean's Kitten

Look out for these 2 long shots.

[Skanoochies]

Can't you tell I'm looking for a little speed? Not necessarily on the lead, but a horse like Noble's Promise seems ideal to me...I'm having a hard time separating Noble's Promise from Super Saver.

The fact that SS is more a need to lead type might sway me to Noble's Promise, but NP's breeding doesn't exactly scream 10 furlongs, although his off track breeding is exceptional...might be the thing that carries him home...

I think you've just convinced me to put Noble's Promise on top...
P.A. I would think you would have a hard time separating N.P. fro LAL. They have never been more than 1 1/2 lengths apart in the three races they have run together. :confused:

[sally]

Jackson Bend and Mission Impazible across the board.

Looking at Lucky and Sidney's Candy with Awesome Act, Backtalk, Conveyance and Noble's Promise underneath

or something like that anyway.

:D

[PhantomOnTour]

Our collective opinion is all over the place in this Derby. Wide open as it's ever been imo, so I can't trash ANYONE else's pick at this point....cuz I haven't much of a clue myself. My gut instinct is to pass the race, but we know that ain't happening, so I will keep my bets small compared to other years.

Yeah, I may favor or fancy a horse or two, but to say I've got a strong feeling about anyone's chances is a lie.

Let's go with an EX:

:1: :4: :16: w
:1: :4: :6: :7: :16: :20:

????????????

[Bobzilla]

I can't remember handicapping a KD in which I felt the bar was this low. It seems as though a performance figure, or adjusted speed figure, in the mid to high 90s could win. So I don't really think that it would take all that much improvement from any number of these guys (and gal) to win this thing which makes it a very good betting race.

My horse is CONVEYANCE, who I suspect after his last race, a hiccup in his current cycle which isn't uncommon, might be ready to improve off of his somewhat fast Southwest two races back. Rather than excessive rating, I think this guy would prefer to gear up off of somewhat quicker fractions than what he set at Sundland. Moreover, I don't think Endorsement is all that bad a colt. As long as he isn't forced by LINE OF DAVID to go too fast, I predict that two ticks to the half quicker than par might be within his comfort zone and an improved performance in the low 100s might be possible. At odds in the 20s/1, he and LOD might be affodrd the necessary safe quarter to effectively set up shop on the front. Is anyone really going to be doing much running in the lane in this thing from off the pace if the fractions aren't wildly fast. Maybe DUBLIN, NP or ICE BOX to some degree, but I might approach this Derby with the mindset that the fractions will be moderate to moderate fast and that will be okay with the still improving Baffert trained son of INDIAN CHARLIE and grandson (maternal side) of HOLY BULL.

I'm going:

:12: Conveyance
:17: Dublin
:4: Super Saver

[vegasone]

10 20 PADDY OPRADO
15 30 DISCREETLY MINE
13 15 JACKSON BEND

[markgoldie]

My personal belief is that this race is truly unhandicappable. This was so even before the slop threw an extra measure of randomness into the event. Adjusted speed figs made that clear. In addition, the speed profile is wildly unpredictable. For example, The Randy Giles pace-pressure gauge for this event is 77, where a 21 number indicates an excellent chance for closers! My feeling is that a rational over/under for the trifecta payout should be about $4500- $5000.

With that in mind, I am playing the following shotgun stab, looking for the possible monster payout in the tri:

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,16,20 with

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,16,17,20 with

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,16,17,20 (same in 3rd leg as second)

$2 Investment is $2200.

I am projecting a 60-70% chance of cashing and a 50-50 chance that the payout will be over $4750.

GLA.

[Dave Schwartz]

Considering the weather, I have revised my picks a little. I have added Sydney's Candy.

http://groups.google.com/group/dave-schwartzs-world-of-horse-racing/web/upcoming-events?_done=/group/dave-schwartzs-world-of-horse-racing%3F

That gives me:

Super Saver
Dublin
Sidney's Candy

[DeanT]

Doing anything with the track yet Dave? I am thinking of rehandicapping.

[WinterTriangle]

Tier 1: The only horses I like are Lookin at Lucky, Ice Box, Devil May Care, Dean's Kitten.


Tier 2: (If I had to pick 4 more for exotics they would be Awesome Act, Mission Impasible, Super Saver, Sidney.)


I'll make up an exacta and tri with the top ones in the win and show positions, and the 2nd ones in the place position. Small wager.

Hoping Zito win the KY Derby though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dave Schwartz]

When I did my Kentucky Derby workshop the other night we made several interesting discoveries:

1. Over the last 8 Ky Derbies, you could have wagered $2 on every horse and shown a flat bet profit.

2. The most important negative factor was that the last race speed rating had to be within 5 points of the best in his last 10 races.
Of the 24 horses that got into the money, only 3 of them were not qualified on this factor.

Here are the horses that did not qualify:
1 Lookin At Lucky
10 Paddy O'Prado
13 Jackson Bend
16 Awesome Act
18 Backtalk

3. 5 of the last 8 winners ranked in the top 2 for "start rating."
Start rating is simply an average of the last 10 start calls in the Past Performances.

Note that this is a "positive" factor. You do not remove horses because they do not qualify. Rather, you consider these horses as plays.

Two horses qualify:
4 Super Saver
20 Sidney's Candy

4. Horses that ranked in the top 2 for 3 different ways of looking at speed ratings were highly successful:

best-2-of-last-3
best-2-of-last-4
best-3-of-last-4

The following horses qualify:
Super Saver
Dublin

5. Horses that rank in the top 2 for the HSH factor called "Composite Stretch Run," "call points at the stretch call" and "Composite Late Pace" also did very well.

The following horses qualify:
Sidney's Candy (SR, CallPts3, LatePace)
Stately Victor (SR)
Conveyance (CallPts3)
Dublin (LatePace)

6. Horses that rank in the top 3 for the HSH factor called "Hidden Fraction" won 6 of the 8 races.

The following horses qualify:
Super Saver
Dublin
Sidney's Candy

[peakpros]

jackson bend
super savor
dublin

why not?

good luck to all

[WinterTriangle]

Tier 1: The only horses I like are Lookin at Lucky, Ice Box, Devil May Care, Dean's Kitten.


Tier 2: (If I had to pick 4 more for exotics they would be Awesome Act, Mission Impasible, Super Saver, Sidney.)




woops, forgot to add Noble's Promise, I like him a little too.

[W2G]

Preferred order of finish...

1. :13: Jackson Bend
2. :18: Backtalk
3. :2: Ice Box
4. :8: Dean's Kitten

[Viruss]

Exacta Boxing the fastest late pace horses :2: :6: :17: :19: :20:

[JustRalph]

The "Wisdom of Crowds" is a little tough to define in this thread :lol:

[EQUIPACE]

Key Horses - #12 Conveyance and #4 Super Saver

$1 Trifectas - Total Bet $80

4/12
1/2/5/10/20
1/2/5/10/20

1/2/5/10/20
4/12
1/2/5/10/20

Good Luck To All!

[Rookies]

I too am going with the H2O strategy as there's lots of that today!

I like Borel's hell bent for the finish line rides and so will be taking:

#4 Super Saver & Borel to Win. SS has a W & 2nd. in 2 attempts in the slop- PLUS is 1/1 @ Churchill with a Gr 2 win last year!

Ex Box 4-3

Tris

4&3 Over:

#11 Devil May Care, 1/1 in the Slop, had a 100 Beyer @ Gulfstream + JR
# 12 Conveyance, 3/3 In the $ this year for $386k, decent (394) and ran a 5F-59 in the slop trainer @ CD
# 14 Mission Impazible, a 2nd & 3rd. in the slop, 3/3 ITM this year for $483
& in a # 17 Tossup Dublin for the 'Irish' wink ;)

GLTA

[Joey D]

Exacta and Trifectas keying Super Saver first and second.

4/1,2,16
1,2,16/4

4/1,2,16/1,2,16
1,2,16/4/1,2,16

[JustRalph]

shit value in the exacta pool

I canceled my exacta ticks and turned them into Tri tickets

[john del riccio]

I like Sidney's Candy.


Good Luck,
John

[DeanT]

shit value in the exacta pool

I canceled my exacta ticks and turned them into Tri tickets
I think we are looking at random pools for the first time in history. With the track, the two talented ones with crap posts (esp L at L with the rail which has been bad today), I think this has turned into dart throwing for a lot of people.

35-1 is the longest shot on the board? That spells pure chaos to me.

What a race!

[garyoz]

That spells pure chaos to me.

What a race!

Has little to with day-to-day handicapping. The inside looks like it sucks, but there is plenty of time between races for the maintenance crew. Roll the bones...not worth much dough (unless you win--then you should have bet more).

[Tom]

:1::2::4::7: Exacta boxes

:1:10W30S
:7:5W15S

[bisket]

had the same 4, but you played it better. way to go tom

[Tom]

Notice how I cleverly took the two that ran out for the side bets? :faint:

[JustRalph]

Nice Call guys......Dave starts the thread with the winner right out of the box...

I had him for 2nd....... :bang:

Shorty, cold Exacta.........nice :ThmbUp:

Tommy.....Nice one!

Looked to me like Sids Candy went wrong at the top of the stretch and wiped out some other closers chances.

[098poi]

Last year I was in Florida watching with my Dad who was not well. I had to fly back a month later and he died on June 11th. I still love you Dad! I associate playing golf with my Dad more than horseracing so today I am going to play before the Derby. Should be a great day actually! My picks (better post them before I completely change my mind)

:12: Conveyance and :17: Dublin in the win spots and

:1: :7: :12: :13: :15: :16: :17: :20:
:1: :7: :12: :13: :15: :16: :17: :20:

underneath for the tri (84$)

If I don't bet that will insure a win and big payoff. :D


Have a safe and happy Derby all!!!!!!!!!!!!




I bet and lost!!!!!!! Still nice Derby day with Gen Quarters and TP finally does it.

[EQUIPACE]

Key Horses - #12 Conveyance and #4 Super Saver

$1 Trifectas - Total Bet $80

4/12
1/2/5/10/20
1/2/5/10/20

1/2/5/10/20
4/12
1/2/5/10/20

Good Luck To All!

Alright... I was hoping for the #12 on top... But #4 on top still get's a return of $1100+ For an $80 wager... HAPPY AS A CLAM!
Wife want's a Prime Rib or Lobster meal tonight...

I think that is a fair trade off... It could be worse.... She might ask for sex...
But then I might have to accomodate, just so I can handicap and wager on tommorows cards.... LAUGHING!

John
~¿o

[Dave Schwartz]

I think that is a fair trade off... It could be worse.... She might ask for sex...

LOL - Are you insane, man? Posting this on a public board? What if you wife sees this?

[bcgreg]

Super Saver
Ice Box
Lookin At Lucky
Line Of David

Nice exacta call.

bcgreg

[bcgreg]

Key Horses - #12 Conveyance and #4 Super Saver

$1 Trifectas - Total Bet $80

4/12
1/2/5/10/20
1/2/5/10/20

1/2/5/10/20
4/12
1/2/5/10/20

Good Luck To All!

Nice Tri! Were you surprised at the payout?

bcgreg

[EQUIPACE]

LOL - Are you insane, man? Posting this on a public board? What if you wife sees this?

Dave,

It's Too late... She already read my post... (Dead Man Walking!)
Now she's talking about a new dining room set too... A Killer Meal At Outback Wont Cut The Mustard... On top of that, I have to now commit to doing the wild thing till the PREAKNESS...

Your Right!.... I must be insane!

John
~¿o

[EQUIPACE]

Nice Tri! Were you surprised at the payout?

bcgreg

bcgreg,
I was hoping for a Wire to Wire win on Baffets other horse (#12)...
It really looked like he was setting this race up for a repeat of 2002
with War Emblem... (I SPANKED THAT RACE HARD!) The #12 horse was there and then got swallowed up so bad, it was a disater when (#20) pressured him out of the gate... But I won't complain... I always look for a 2nd key and the #4 fit the race perfectly. As far as your Q... Was I suprised at the payout? Yes.. With the odds being what they were I expected a bit less for a return. I can't kick a gift horse in the mouth... The #4 had everything going for him... Just like so many others on this site saw.... I only wish I would have played him harder as a flat bet... By The Way... I see you are from Durango.... I'm a Denver Colorado Home Runner (Almost 15 Years)... But I'm Not A Bronco's Fan!

John
~¿o