HOL 8 today

[WinterTriangle]

You all might remember the maiden who FELL DOWN during the race in his last-----and then got up and raced again. :eek: ala Afleet Alex.

So, I put that in my notes.

Saw he was racing today, and odds were...........get this...........15-1. Got bet down to 6-1, but the public still went for the 1/1 and 5/2 chalk.

Paid $14.20 to win. Guess nobody thought that was quite a feat last time.

Kinda makes you wonder what a horse has to *do* to get horseplayers "off the chalk." (Maybe his beyer speed wasn't good or something :p )

[Fingal]

Beyers. :sleeping: To each his own I suppose.

Numbers without perspective are just numbers.

[WinterTriangle]

Yes. Eyes work better.

The horse fell down! Then got up and continued racing and won.

So, next out, people don't bet him? :D

this makes absolutely no sense to me. and he goes off at high odds to boot.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think my next contest is going to be to challenge any of the Beyer bashers to outperform the speed figures they love to bash.

I wonder how many of them could actually outperform a straight, mechanical Beyer system.

Might be interesting and entertaining...

[Zman179]

Yes. Eyes work better.

The horse fell down! Then got up and continued racing and won.

So, next out, people don't bet him? :D

this makes absolutely no sense to me. and he goes off at high odds to boot.

Ever stop to think that maybe, just maybe, not everyone who goes to the racetrack follows the races on a daily basis? Unless the DRF comment in his prior race said, "Clipped heels, fell, got back up and won the race", how in the heck do you expect others around the country to see what you had been lucky enough to see?

[gm10]

I think my next contest is going to be to challenge any of the Beyer bashers to outperform the speed figures they love to bash.

I wonder how many of them could actually outperform a straight, mechanical Beyer system.

Might be interesting and entertaining...

Bring it on. No prize money required.

[bks]

I'll take Winter Triangle for whatever you can afford to lose, PA (unless it's more than I can) :)

[Dahoss9698]

I think my next contest is going to be to challenge any of the Beyer bashers to outperform the speed figures they love to bash.

I wonder how many of them could actually outperform a straight, mechanical Beyer system.

Might be interesting and entertaining...

It is amusing, isn't it? Apparently every horse is bet down due to Beyers and when the favorites lose it's Beyer's fault. The really amusing thing is the people that bash usually have no understanding of the number and how it is formulated.

The other misconception is that people are just blindly betting Beyer's without doing any other handicapping. No trip work, trainer stats, other stats, etc. Just a bunch of robots buying a form and betting strictly on whoever had the highest Beyer last race.

I also suppose that every horse that has ever clipped heels (and finished 8th) comes back to win next time. Such an easy game (when you actually bet).

[WinterTriangle]

people are just blindly betting Beyer's without doing any other handicapping.

Pace and Dahoss, if you read my post in context, you will see that I am saying exactly that, not bashing Beyer.

The post was about bettors and how they bet, not beyer.

So, we are in agreement.

(good lord, one can't even include the "B" word in a post here, lest it be taken wrong, and someone think one is trampling a sacred cow.):bang:

Read both posts carefully again, and you'll see it's about bettors not using their eyes or notes, or, not knowing much about the horses in a race they are betting on. In which case, it's a non-wagering race.

If this is bad advice, then so be it.



Just about anyone can pull up a few replays after work to see what happened at the tracks they like to play. It has nothing to do with being "lucky" enough to see something. It's work, not luck.

So, Pace, IF you read the posts, you will see I am asking: Why didn't bettors wager this horse? I am asking what they used. Beyers, splits, what? I was not bashing Beyer at all. I was asking if anyone thinks people bet races where they are not clear about the horses in the field.

[Dahoss9698]

It's hard to take either post seriously when you say the horse fell down (he clipped heels) then got up and won. He finished 8th in said race. You also have taken my quote totally out of context.

If you look at Detroit Donnie's first race, he was moving well before he got behind the traffic, but by that point the winner was long gone. he might have been second if he doesn't clip heels. but he didn't really get up and continue racing. he was essentially eased under the wire.

I think there is a lot of dumb money in pools. Look at the Derby. How was a horse like Backtalk not 99-1? but, this horse was bet down to 6-1 off of that effort, so some people thought enough of his debut.

You can learn a lot by watching as many replays as possible. The pp's are a good start, but they certainly don't tell the entire story.

[PaceAdvantage]

Bring it on. No prize money required.Definitely...like I said, it will at the least be entertaining...

I just have to figure out which way to mechanically select the Beyer selections...best last Beyer...best out of last three...best ever...I'll figure something out...

Maybe someone out there has a study as to which mechanical method has lost the least amount of money...

[WinterTriangle]

Definitely...like I said, it will at the least be entertaining...

that *contest* with cmoore and the other guy wasn't entertaining. I think it turned into a big headache for you, didn't it? Be careful what you ask for. ;)

[Nitro]

Definitely...like I said, it will at the least be entertaining...

I just have to figure out which way to mechanically select the Beyer selections...best last Beyer...best out of last three...best ever...I'll figure something out...

Maybe someone out there has a study as to which mechanical method has lost the least amount of money...What's to figure out?
Its very simple! Get Andy directly involved and I'm in! Who better to make use these numbers then the author himself? Personally I think he would frown on any "mechanical" usage of them. At least I would hope so!

Any track, any time, and my preference (like Andy's) is to play the exotics. ;)

[PaceAdvantage]

What's to figure out?
Its very simple! Get Andy directly involved and I'm in! Who better to make use these numbers then the author himself? Personally I think he would frown on any "mechanical" usage of them. At least I would hope so!

Any track, any time, and my preference (like Andy's) is to play the exotics. ;)My point isn't to find a Beyer figure expert. My point is to try and throw a little egg on the face of these Beyer bashers, as I would be surprised to see them outperform even a simple, mechanical Beyer selection system.

[PaceAdvantage]

that *contest* with cmoore and the other guy wasn't entertaining. I think it turned into a big headache for you, didn't it? Be careful what you ask for. ;)How was it not entertaining? I was thoroughly entertained, especially when cmoore left in a huff because he couldn't handle the fact that I was going to implement the very scoring changes he demanded that I implement (until he realized it was going to credit his rival with a big winner).

No headaches here at all...

[gm10]

Definitely...like I said, it will at the least be entertaining...

I just have to figure out which way to mechanically select the Beyer selections...best last Beyer...best out of last three...best ever...I'll figure something out...

Maybe someone out there has a study as to which mechanical method has lost the least amount of money...

I will have a look at his books. I am 100% sure he has tested a few methods himself.

[WinterTriangle]

You all might remember the maiden who FELL DOWN during the race in his last-----and then got up and raced again. :eek: ala Afleet Alex.

So, I put that in my notes.

Saw he was racing today, and odds were...........get this...........15-1. Got bet down to 6-1, but the public still went for the 1/1 and 5/2 chalk.

Paid $14.20 to win.


Just reviving this to give Kudos to Detroit Donnie, who won again today and paid $10.20 to win. :jump: I guess you can tell I really like him.:blush:

[JohnGalt1]

Even Beyer in his books gives over a dozen reasons NOT to use the high figure horse.

[Fastracehorse]

Just reviving this to give Kudos to Detroit Donnie, who won again today and paid $10.20 to win. :jump: I guess you can tell I really like him.:blush:

.................excellent handicapping!

fffastt