View Full Version : Synthetic exacta
After the synthetic exacta in the Oaks, can we expect the same in the Derby?
I'm going for Stately Victor and Lookin At Lucky in that case!
46zilzal
04-30-2010, 06:03 PM
After the synthetic exacta in the Oaks, can we expect the same in the Derby?
I'm going for Stately Victor and Lookin At Lucky in that case!
No as neither of these closers were anywhere near the huge late moves that will knock out Paddy and Stately and a few others...Even Lookin at Lucky will have to get luckier from that post
Pick6
04-30-2010, 06:03 PM
I thought I was the only 'capper picking off this pattern.
It has been quite close to free money of late.
andymays
04-30-2010, 06:05 PM
Horses running finally to their potential is a beautiful thing.
Pick6
04-30-2010, 06:06 PM
But usually never this easy to predict...
andymays
04-30-2010, 06:08 PM
But usually never this easy to predict...
Horses running on or near the pace from Pro Ride are doing well. Wouldn't you agree?
Horses running on or near the pace from Pro Ride are doing well. Wouldn't you agree?
Andy, you're making a good case for keeping the Pro-Ride!!!
andymays
04-30-2010, 06:17 PM
Andy, you're making a good case for keeping the Pro-Ride!!!
Yes, Santa Anita would make a great training track. :D
Don't get your hopes up for a meaninful exchange. ;)
Pick6
04-30-2010, 06:19 PM
I liken it to horses running with ankle weights.
Dirt = taking the ankle weights off. Their endurance bounces up, and their ability to finish improves.
andymays
04-30-2010, 06:23 PM
I liken it to horses running with ankle weights.
Dirt = taking the ankle weights off. Their endurance bounces up, and their ability to finish improves.
Are you Bob Baffert or Darrell Vienna? ;)
Pick6
04-30-2010, 06:25 PM
Is that what they said? I'm curious...
Cadillakin
04-30-2010, 06:29 PM
Horses running finally to their potential is a beautiful thing.
Without a doubt, Blind Luck's best race was the Hollywood Starlet - on synthetic - when she put in a blistering run in the lane, and drew off by 7. The race track crowd and the forumites were in awe of that victory. In fact, many crowned her the best 3 year old in the country that day. Lookin at Lucky ran later in the card and ran a few lengths slower.
The finish today in the Oaks was almost an exact reproduction of form in the Las Virgenes on Pro Ride.. where Evening Jewel got the lead between calls and Blind Luck ran her down in the very last jump.. to win by a nose.
They both reproduced their synthetic form, almost perfectly..
andymays
04-30-2010, 06:33 PM
Without a doubt, Blind Luck's best race was the Hollywood Starlet - on synthetic - when she put in a blistering run in the lane, and drew off by 7. The race track crowd and the forumites were in awe of that victory. In fact, many crowned her the best 3 year old in the country that day. Lookin at Lucky ran later in the card and ran a few lengths slower.
The finish today in the Oaks was almost an exact reproduction of form in the Las Virgenes on Pro Ride.. where Evening Jewel got the lead between calls and Blind Luck ran her down in the very last jump.. to win by a nose.
They both reproduced their synthetic form, almost perfectly..
Caddy, go back to your roots where you were the cat's meow.
Not so much lately.
Valuist
04-30-2010, 08:01 PM
After the synthetic exacta in the Oaks, can we expect the same in the Derby?
I'm going for Stately Victor and Lookin At Lucky in that case!
Didn't Blind Luck run most recently at Oaklawn in the Fantasy? Oaklawn is most definitely a NORMAL racetrack. Not some piece of sh it embarrassment of a track.
PaceAdvantage
05-01-2010, 03:29 AM
It really is sometimes shocking how much faster these quality animals run once they hit the dirt. Blind Luck being a prime recent example with her race at Oaklawn.
Of course, it is odd that Zenyatta, queen of the synthetics, hasn't shown the same type of dramatic move forward in her two dirt attempts. Maybe one day.
cuzimahustler
05-01-2010, 04:22 AM
What are you talking about? she's pulled off 2 wins on dirt doesnt matter by how many lengths a win's a win. Zen won just like Blind Luck's Last race at OakLawn from behind by a couple lenghts and alot easier then BL might i add.
PaceAdvantage
05-01-2010, 04:30 AM
What are you talking about? she's pulled off 2 wins on dirt doesnt matter by how many lengths a win's a win.Not talking lengths. Talking raw speed. Final time and all that jazz.
It's just not there with Zenyatta on the dirt. Not yet anyway. Wasn't really there on synthetics either, but I've been hearing lately that come-from-behind winners are somehow supposed to be SLOWER than all other types of winners.
I think my signature hear sums up this thread nicely.
One might argue that Zenyatta has not had to sue blazing speed yet on dirt.
Myself, I suspect given a fast pace, show will more than rise to the occasion. I would not hesitate to play here against any males in training on dirt at 9 or longer. Not a blink.
I would not make RA a contender in any race at this time. I predict a Lady's Secret finish for this one.
FenceBored
05-01-2010, 10:47 AM
After the synthetic exacta in the Oaks, can we expect the same in the Derby?
I'm going for Stately Victor and Lookin At Lucky in that case!
Ah, but notice that the filly coming off a dirt start out finished the filly coming off a synthetic start. Clear evidence of the superiority of dirt. :)
Didn't Blind Luck run most recently at Oaklawn in the Fantasy? Oaklawn is most definitely a NORMAL racetrack. Not some piece of sh it embarrassment of a track.
Funny how horses manage to confirm their form from those shit tracks to dirt tracks and not the other way around. But hey keep on backing those dirt horses, keep those odds high for the punters who keep an open mind.
It really is sometimes shocking how much faster these quality animals run once they hit the dirt. Blind Luck being a prime recent example with her race at Oaklawn.
Of course, it is odd that Zenyatta, queen of the synthetics, hasn't shown the same type of dramatic move forward in her two dirt attempts. Maybe one day.
PMSL
It's not shocking how some people just refuse to see the truth. It's just entertaining by now. Blind Luck ran a faster 8.5F as a 2yo than she did at Oaklawn. And why do you think that "sudden improvers" end up in the Oaks? Don't they only get in because of graded earnings?
I think it is time to drop the blinkers. They don't work.
Ah, but notice that the filly coming off a dirt start out finished the filly coming off a synthetic start. Clear evidence of the superiority of dirt. :)
:D
I think my signature hear sums up this thread nicely.
Why not change it to: "Synthetic surfaces: making good handicappers take a lot of money from mediocre handicappers since 2004".
My signature isn't about betting, it is about the sport of racing and identifying the best athletes. Rubber doesn't do that, which is why nobody else is switching. (except of course the Arabs who were swindled once again in the horse business)
My signature isn't about betting, it is about the sport of racing and identifying the best athletes. Rubber doesn't do that, which is why nobody else is switching. (except of course the Arabs who were swindled once again in the horse business)
The rubber horses sure did OK against those superior dirt athletes yesterday and in last year's Derby.
The rubber horses sure did OK against those superior dirt athletes yesterday and in last year's Derby.
I have never said the horses can't run. If running 2nd while getting beaten by 7 is OK, I'll agree POTN ran OK. Again, it is not to say the horses aren't any good, just that it is more a crapshoot on rubber and good horses look average many times, including the Oaks winner.
By the way, are you calling Mine that Bird a "rubber" horse? He is clearly way better on dirt.
I have never said the horses can't run. If running 2nd while getting beaten by 7 is OK, I'll agree POTN ran OK. Again, it is not to say the horses aren't any good, just that it is more a crapshoot on rubber and good horses look average many times, including the Oaks winner.
By the way, are you calling Mine that Bird a "rubber" horse? He is clearly way better on dirt.
I completely disagree. Mine That Bird is clearly comfortable with both surfaces. POTN was a creditable second. Papa Clem was also OK with rubber, as was Chocolate Candy.
I completely disagree that it is a crapshoot on rubber. Maybe it is a bit more subtle because the winning margins aren't 5 lengths by default but it's no coincidence that the best animals keep winning AND that they manage to win on the dirt too.
Oh and the Eight Belles winner just came out of a rubber race as well :ThmbUp:
Oh and the Eight Belles winner just came out of a rubber race as well :ThmbUp:
You just don't get it. This only furthers my point. She has won on dirt 4 times now, all four times, while never winning on turf or synthetic, 0 for 3. In other words, on those surfaces, she loses and looks mediocre. That is the whole point. I've never said horses that race on rubber can't run on dirt. Some run better, some run worse, some run the same.
For the record, those that use my figures can tell you the winner was a strong play on my numbers.
Have Churchill Downs secretly installed a synthetic track? Those rubber donkeys are putting the real dirt horses under the slop!
You just don't get it. This only furthers my point. She has won on dirt 4 times now, all four times, while never winning on turf or synthetic, 0 for 3. In other words, on those surfaces, she loses and looks mediocre. That is the whole point. I've never said horses that race on rubber can't run on dirt. Some run better, some run worse, some run the same.
For the record, those that use my figures can tell you the winner was a strong play on my numbers.
Get what? I just said she came out of a synthetic race. I don't know why you answered the way you did.
Anyway my point is: a) running well on the synthetic is harder to do than on the dirt because you need a much more versatile horse and b) the horses who have been running on synthetic surfaces seem to have a fitness edge.
Get what? I just said she came out of a synthetic race. I don't know why you answered the way you did.
Anyway my point is: a) running well on the synthetic is harder to do than on the dirt because you need a much more versatile horse and b) the horses who have been running on synthetic surfaces seem to have a fitness edge.
You don't get my signature. You argue about things I don't even disagree about with you. Take off the blinkers man.
Bruddah
05-01-2010, 03:45 PM
After the synthetic exacta in the Oaks, can we expect the same in the Derby?
I'm going for Stately Victor and Lookin At Lucky in that case!
Stately Victor $100 to wps
Super Saver tp place
Dublin to show $25 exacta box
The rubber horses sure did OK against those superior dirt athletes yesterday and in last year's Derby.
Ridiculous thread so far, but try this - they are NOT rubber horses. They are DIRT horses who are now on a superior surface. Clearly, they are better runners on the superior surface, dirt, for which they were bred. You whole premise here shows that rubber tracks area far inferior to dirt tracks, which, obviously, they are. Look at Cigar - take off that stupid sod and he wins 16 in a row. Most horses can handle dirt - that is why it is now will always be the superior surface.
Valuist
05-01-2010, 06:50 PM
Funny how horses manage to confirm their form from those shit tracks to dirt tracks and not the other way around. But hey keep on backing those dirt horses, keep those odds high for the punters who keep an open mind.
What constitutes a "synthetic horse? BEFORE the Oaklawn race, you could say Blind Luck was. But coming off the Fantasy, I'm not sure you can say that. I don't have yesterdays pps but I'm guessing she shipped from Oaklawn to Churchill so not only her last race but her recent works would've likely been on dirt.
Valuist
05-01-2010, 06:53 PM
Get what? I just said she came out of a synthetic race. I don't know why you answered the way you did.
Anyway my point is: a) running well on the synthetic is harder to do than on the dirt because you need a much more versatile horse and b) the horses who have been running on synthetic surfaces seem to have a fitness edge.
How do you need to be more versatile when all their races are run the same way? Every race on synthetic is a gallop to the quarter pole, then sprint to the wire. Synthetic tracks punish speed horses and like Baffert says, they make average horses look good and good horses look average.
How do you need to be more versatile when all their races are run the same way? Every race on synthetic is a gallop to the quarter pole, then sprint to the wire. Synthetic tracks punish speed horses and like Baffert says, they make average horses look good and good horses look average.
No disrespect to Baffert, but that's BS.
And if you think that all synthetic races are won that way, then there is nothing to discuss.
What constitutes a "synthetic horse? BEFORE the Oaklawn race, you could say Blind Luck was. But coming off the Fantasy, I'm not sure you can say that. I don't have yesterdays pps but I'm guessing she shipped from Oaklawn to Churchill so not only her last race but her recent works would've likely been on dirt.
Well funnily enough we agree. Synthetic horses are rare. Most horses who do well on the synthetic are versatile horses who can do well on any surface.
Ridiculous thread so far, but try this - they are NOT rubber horses. They are DIRT horses who are now on a superior surface. Clearly, they are better runners on the superior surface, dirt, for which they were bred. You whole premise here shows that rubber tracks area far inferior to dirt tracks, which, obviously, they are. Look at Cigar - take off that stupid sod and he wins 16 in a row. Most horses can handle dirt - that is why it is now will always be the superior surface.
That's the kind of attitude that kept the people of the middle ages in the middle ages. Horse racing doesn't rotate around dirt. It's the horses who tell you who is the best athlete, it's not your choice of surface that does.
How do you need to be more versatile when all their races are run the same way? Every race on synthetic is a gallop to the quarter pole, then sprint to the wire. Synthetic tracks punish speed horses and like Baffert says, they make average horses look good and good horses look average.
I just want to say Baffert stole that line from me. I said it way before him, though I think I used the term mediocre instead of average.
You don't get my signature. You argue about things I don't even disagree about with you. Take off the blinkers man.
I get your signature all too well. It's you who doesn't understand that good horses don't need to win by 10 lengths. Good horses are those who win a lot of their race, period. It doesn't matter if it's on rubber, dirt or moon rocks.
I just want to say Baffert stole that line from me. I said it way before him, though I think I used the term mediocre instead of average.
I'd really keep that to myself, big guy!
I get your signature all too well. It's you who doesn't understand that good horses don't need to win by 10 lengths. Good horses are those who win a lot of their race, period. It doesn't matter if it's on rubber, dirt or moon rocks.
Then why does no other place outside of the USA and our tag-along brothers from Dubai use it for top races? Rubber or moondust for that matter?
How many years has it been since any track has decided to switch over to synth?
And then take out the ones that were forced to by regulations, and how many do you have?
I bet not one more will lay down that crap, unless it is Santa Anita, who seems to have no clue what they are doing anyway.
FenceBored
05-01-2010, 07:20 PM
The Derby exacta?
No synthetic horses. No synthetics starts for either of them.
The Derby trifecta?
No synthetic horses. One synthetic start for the third place horse.
Conclusion?
As Tom Jones might sing: 'It's good to race on brown brown dirt and loam.'
Then why does no other place outside of the USA and our tag-along brothers from Dubai use it for top races? Rubber or moondust for that matter?
What does have anything to do with your signature????
Horse racing is 4 centuries old, they didn't have synthetics back then, did they. It doesn't mean it makes good horses look ordinary.
The Derby exacta?
No synthetic horses. No synthetics starts for either of them.
The Derby trifecta?
No synthetic horses. One synthetic start for the third place horse.
Conclusion?
As Tom Jones might sing: 'It's good to race on brown brown dirt and loam.'
hold the phone
3rd finisher: best on synthetics/turf
4th: best on synthetics
5th: best on synthetics
6th: best on synthetics
7th: best on dirt
8th: best on synthetics
and keep in mind that 6 and 8 smashed into each other after 1F after which it was game over
so we get 5 horses in the top 8 who are better on synthetics than dirt (oh wait, they are really dirt horses who were running on the wrong surface :bang: )
and we get a synthetic exacta in the oaks
and we get other synthetic winners on derby day (both on dirt and turf)
not a bad weekend for the rubber imo
not a bad weekend for the rubber imo
OK, they are won on dirt.
What the hell does that say about synths?
Horses improve coming off it because it so great? :lol:
How many improve dramatically going on to it?
BluegrassProf
05-01-2010, 07:54 PM
:faint:
Man, gm, out of honest curiousity: you ever feel like you're caught up in an "everyone's wrong but ME!!" sorta thing?
Does this ever concern you?
What does have anything to do with your signature????
Horse racing is 4 centuries old, they didn't have synthetics back then, did they. It doesn't mean it makes good horses look ordinary.
Well, I think it does. No point arguing about it. I could make a list but it would be a waste of time.
:faint:
Man, gm, out of honest curiousity: you ever feel like you're caught up in an "everyone's wrong but ME!!" sorta thing?
Does this ever concern you?
Be honest, do you think that you can make money in this game by not being contrarian?
Well, I think it does. No point arguing about it. I could make a list but it would be a waste of time.
Why? Show me your list please!
I can give you a similar list, I think.
Sinister Minister will feature in the top 3!
BluegrassProf
05-01-2010, 08:02 PM
Be honest, do you think that you can make money in this game by not being contrarian?My man, from where you're sitting, everyone is being contrarian. That's the half-joke. :D
Why? Show me your list please!
I can give you a similar list, I think.
Sinister Minister will feature in the top 3!
Exactly, so why bother? Nobody ever claimed Sinister Minister was a great dirt horse. He was a horse that rode a bias to victory once.
:faint:
Man, gm, out of honest curiousity: you ever feel like you're caught up in an "everyone's wrong but ME!!" sorta thing?
Does this ever concern you?
It doesn't concern me by the way. I'm a stats man. And based on the last 5 years I can only say that horse who do well on the synthetic seem to be better all-round horses than horses who do well on dirt or turf. Don't confuse this with me wanting to get rid of dirt or turf (on the contrary) ... I just have a lot of respect for horses who do well on synthetic surfaces.
Exactly, so why bother? Nobody ever claimed Sinister Minister was a great dirt horse. He was a horse that rode a bias to victory once.
So there is no list forthcoming?
My man, from where you're sitting, everyone is being contrarian. That's the half-joke. :D
maybe you should look up contrarian
BluegrassProf
05-01-2010, 08:14 PM
In the vernacular, "contrarian" means "taking an opposing position." This is very simple...the longer this goes on, the more it's like you're on a ledge with everyone telling you not to leap into the watery abyss, and you're like, "there's nothing down there but marshmallows! HereIgo!"
Good for you. Shows tenacity. :ThmbUp:
In the vernacular, "contrarian" means "taking an opposing position." This is very simple...the longer this goes on, the more it's like you're on a ledge with everyone telling you not to leap into the watery abyss, and you're like, "there's nothing down there but marshmallows! HereIgo!"
Good for you. Shows tenacity. :ThmbUp:
Yes ... those guys telling me not to jump are making a lot of money! And what about the ultimate contrarian Warren Buffett ... buying old-economy shares when the whole world was buying dot bombs. Last I heard he was living in a card board box.
Anyway, it's your business how you handicap. I just give extra credit to horses who do well on the synthetic.
FenceBored
05-02-2010, 08:12 AM
hold the phone
3rd finisher: best on synthetics/turf
4th: best on synthetics
5th: best on synthetics
6th: best on synthetics
7th: best on dirt
8th: best on synthetics
and keep in mind that 6 and 8 smashed into each other after 1F after which it was game over
so we get 5 horses in the top 8 who are better on synthetics than dirt (oh wait, they are really dirt horses who were running on the wrong surface :bang: )
and we get a synthetic exacta in the oaks
and we get other synthetic winners on derby day (both on dirt and turf)
not a bad weekend for the rubber imo
I could have sworn the thread title you chose was "Synthetic exacta" not "Synthetic 8th place finishers." My bad.
I'm glad your cup is always half-full. Hmm, I'll bet the cup is plastic. ;)
I could have sworn the thread title you chose was "Synthetic exacta" not "Synthetic 8th place finishers." My bad.
I'm glad your cup is always half-full. Hmm, I'll bet the cup is plastic. ;)
Well the thread was about the synthetic exacta until you changed it, yes.
Anyway, I've got nothing left to say here that I haven't repeated a 1000 times before.
Foolish Pleasure
05-02-2010, 06:06 PM
You know nothing about making money betting.
You sell picks to people who are even larger idiots than you are.
Stop pretending it is annoying and no one as stubborn as you ever will win at this game.
The prototypical loser, marry oneself to the most idiotic theories on planet earth and never get a divorce.
Dahoss9698
05-02-2010, 07:04 PM
You know nothing about making money betting.
You sell picks to people who are even larger idiots than you are.
Stop pretending it is annoying and no one as stubborn as you ever will win at this game.
The prototypical loser, marry oneself to the most idiotic theories on planet earth and never get a divorce.
Sharp post
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