Trainer Tells

[Tuffmug]

Am looking for a good source of information which could provide specific"tells"( both positive and negative setups ) of the regular trainers in the NY and California curcuits. I realize intent isn't everything but it's a darn good starting point. Don't have the database to tease out and validate the tells myself so I'm hoping there is a source out there.

Have looked at racing game as a variant of poker between the trainers. Neither knows the other's hole cards (i.e. the exact condition of the other trainer's horse and the intent of the trainer to win today or run as a prep conditioner for another day). We bettors have to know who is bluffing and who is holding a pair of aces to a pair of 7's.

Am aware of the more general tells in racing but, to get to the next level, need to know each trainer's personal tells.

If someone on this board doesn't know of a source then I guess there isn't one.

Thanks,

[canuck]

Hey TM -howzit going???

Inside the Claiming Game by Steve Collison is a great read into trainer intent

[Tuffmug]

Canuck,
Hi. Doing OK now. Got 6 month interruption in handicapping due to small heart attack and large aortic aneurysm. Must have eatten too much of that fine Canadian bacon <G>.
Book you mention is good but looking for tells of each SPECIFIC trainer.

[takeout]

I think BRIS used to sell a notebook of trainer stats but only for NY. Don't know if they still do or not.

[pic6vic]

Greg Lawlor had books on trainers in So Cal. Don't know if he still produces.

Bill Mazur has a profile for trainers at SPA and Delmar. The DRF is advertising this book.

These are stats on how a teainer does in certain categories. The categories are more detailed than the racing form or Bris put out.

[canuck]

Mug

Glad to see you bounce back.

I got my grubby little hands on a free copy of the Saratoga Handicapper 2003 by Jim Mazur. A lot of interesting info there.....

[canuck]

I should read more carefully--Vic just said the same thing I did...

[Valuist]

Mug-

You're fortunate they found the aortic aneurism before it burst. My dad had one two years ago and fortunately they were able to take care of it. If they burst its about 1000-1 against staying alive.

[Tuffmug]

Valuist,
Was very fortunate. Had very minor heart attack and while placing stent they found the aneurysm. Ironically, having the heart attack saved my life!

[Valuist]

Absolutely. My dad had taken a fall and thought he had broken a rib and they discovered the aneurism.

Good thing the heart attack was minor; like you said it probably saved your life.

[andicap]

Originally posted by pic6vic
Greg Lawlor had books on trainers in So Cal. Don't know if he still produces.

Bill Mazur has a profile for trainers at SPA and Delmar. The DRF is advertising this book.

These are stats on how a teainer does in certain categories. The categories are more detailed than the racing form or Bris put out.

Sounds like a new yorker here recalling "the Amazin'" Bill Mazur (it's Jim Mazur actually at Progressive Handicapping), still heard daily on WVOX-AM.

[pic6vic]

Andy

Good call New Jersey now Calif

[VetScratch]

Tuffmug,
Hi. Doing OK now. Got 6 month interruption in handicapping due to small heart attack and large aortic aneurysm. Must have eatten too much of that fine Canadian bacon <G>

Book you mention is good but looking for tells of each SPECIFIC trainer.
.
Were you serious?

I can understand expecting discussions about handicapping theories, debates over the meaning or scope of specific variables, coverage for some mathematical and database issues, peer-to-peer book and product reviews, and threads about industry news and controversies.

You want someone to give you specific (and no doubt profitable) trainer tells?

I suggest that folks expecting this should dial 1-TOO-THF-AIRY.

Some aspects of this board amaze me. Why would Rmania want to share the specifics of a very promising blackbox? Why did Takech share his powerful 7f statistics for HOL, presuming his subscribers saw them as the meet progressed?

Hasn't racing lost enough players without asking those who remain to commit suicide?

My advice: share your wives before you share your key wagers.

BTW, I do assume you were joking considering the high regard you have earned from several members who have corresponded with me. You were described as "dangerously smart" by one!

[andicap]

Whoa, VS,

Unless I'm wrong, Tuffmug is just looking for a source to go to for specific info on trainers. I doubt he expects us to hand over our own blue chip plays.


Anyway, Jim Mazur's Progressive Handicapping is the best place for this info.
Cynthia Publishing put something together a year or two ago, but i imagine it might be outdated -- you can check cynpub.com

[VetScratch]

Sorry Andicap,

I misunderstood Tuffmug to be asking for tells on specific trainers instead of specific info on various trainer tells.

I guess my lesson here is that it never hurts to read each post a second time, then sideways, then upside down!:) :) :)
Tuffmug:
Am aware of the more general tells in racing but, to get to the next level, need to know each trainer's personal tells.

Book you mention is good but looking for tells of each SPECIFIC trainer.
Ok, I finally got it, but I had to rub lemon juice on the mirror and re-read Tuffmug in a steaming shower.:) :) :)

Couldn't resist this time, Andy!

[Show Me the Wire]

Tuffmug:

Good to know you are doing okay. The answer to your question is........."Nuance" handicapping". The only tried and true method to confirm the connections intentions coupled with your individual records.

Before, I reveal the answer ( and I am not afraid to share, becuase you cannot tell from a simulcast signal) can you guess the individual that will give you the best insight to the connections win expectations?

Regards,
Yani

Perception is reality

[VetScratch]

My guess: the guy who takes reservations at the most expensive steak and lobster house near the track?

I've never seen this reservation list flash on simulcast screens.:) :) :)

Goodness, I can't stop humming that new country hit, "Who's Out Riding Now?"

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by VetScratch
Tuffmug,

Were you serious?


Uh....i think it might be time to relax a bit....

[VetScratch]

Sure thing, PA. Southern Comfort and ink make a bad cocktail! Sorry, guys.

[Show Me the Wire]

VetScratch:

A good guess about the steak and lobster place, but that is not what I meant. The nuance I referred to is the well-groomed groom.

I enjoy your humor! Did you do the circle of fifths handicapping exercise last night?

Regards,
Robert

Perception is reality

[VetScratch]

Show Me the Wire,

The "circle of fifths handicapping" secret (shared here first!) is that you inevitably bypass a lot of wretched races among the first two events on most cards. :) :) :)

Glad you enjoy (hiccup)! My bit about "Who's Out Riding Now?" was a reference to one of my great-uncle's "legendary" tricks where he would supposedly enlist an outrider to help convoy his well-meant 2YO first-timers all the way to the gate as an extra measure of insurance in case other "canaries" acted up. I was too young to ever witness this "tell," so all I know is family legend, and also that his survivors received no big insurance windfalls. :) :) :)

[VetScratch]

Show Me the Wire,
Forgot to say thanks! You shared a very shrewd and telling nuance tip!

Do you remember Hickey's main groom, Natty? I never could read that rascal's tell!:) :) :)

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
Sounds like a new yorker here recalling "the Amazin'" Bill Mazur (it's Jim Mazur actually at Progressive Handicapping), still heard daily on WVOX-AM.

What is their webpage address?

[turfspec]

Tom:

www.proghandicap.com ,I believe.

Rob

[Brian Flewwelling]

As a novice i seem to be missing the drift of this thread, but is the question of 'tells' something deeper than a 'profile' that looks at win %, itm%, and roi for different trainer moves?

Brian

[BillW]

Originally posted by Brian Flewwelling
As a novice i seem to be missing the drift of this thread, but is the question of 'tells' something deeper than a 'profile' that looks at win %, itm%, and roi for different trainer moves?

Brian

Brian,

The "tell" I'm familiar with is from poker. It's basically a "giveaway" of a player hiding a move. For instance a guys eye twitches every time he is bluffing (An extreme example, but serves to demonstrate the concept). A trainer "tell" following the same definition would be a giveaway that he was geared to win (or bluffing, i.e. in just for the work). An example (equally as extreme as above) would be a trainer wearing a suit when he knows he is getting his picture taken.

If the term has taken on a bit different meaning, I'm sure someone will chime in :).

Bill

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by BillW
An example (equally as extreme as above) would be a trainer wearing a suit when he knows he is getting his picture taken.
If the term has taken on a bit different meaning, I'm sure someone will chime in :). Bill

I saw the exact opposite of this the other night. I don't remember what track it was, but the horse was a firster and a 20 plus to one shot. The pace up front is hot as hell and the jock keeps this guy back for a stretch run. He glides past 2 really tired favs and wins. They get back to the winners circle and nobody but a groom shows. The Groom is scanning the grandstand like crazy and asking the photog to wait. The groom looks like he just crawled from under a truck after a transmission job. The Jock and the Groom get their picture taken and they are the only ones in the winners circle. It must of been one hell of a surprise for the connections on that one. I guess that would have been a reverse "tell" when nobody showed to watch him run.

[VetScratch]

BillW,

Every lurker and newbie applauds posts like your last. I know I did!

Just to show you simple virtues have rewards, here's a little ditty that Carly Simon must have written with you in mind:

Well, Flip-Flop, I was doin' the Bop,
But after the turn, my neck got hot;
Drummin' my thumbs on the table top,
I let a 5th Street tell kill the pot!

[VetScratch]

Guys,
So you all think I'm stingy and won't put out profit-making keys!

Let's put an end that notion right now!

Lacking my own web site, my college alma mater has kindly permitted my to make my pool-busting, private-method, all-surface, all-weather Sprint & Route Keys available in two value-packed tables!

If you have an appetite for huge ROIs, you can saturate it here: http://www.nh3gccc.com/Saturation%20Tables.pdf

No need to thank me, just send money!:) :) :)

[takeout]

Originally posted by JustRalph
It must of been one hell of a surprise for the connections on that one.

I noticed one like that once although the race unfolded just the opposite. No pace at all. It was a route race that ended up being a short sprint because they literally walked all the way around until the top of the stretch. A horse that almost no one thought had any chance ended up wiring the 7-horse field at about 26-1. When the jockey and trainer looked at each other in the winner's circle their expressions said it all. They couldn't BELIEVE they had won that race.

[Maxspa]

Tuffmug,
You might want to check out Ed Bain's ideas on trainer intent. He has specific files from HDW that narrow down the basics regarding his findings. He also has written a book that can be purchased at his web-site. This material explains the various winning techniques that he has found. Hope this helps!
Maxspa

[Maxspa]

Tuffmug,
In my previous post I forgot to include Ed Bain's website so you can peruse his material. It is www.edbain.com .
Maxspa

[Fastracehorse]

<I realize intent isn't everything but it's a darn good starting point.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I beleive trainer intent could be looked at as almost everything - or at the least, powerfullllllllll.

:cool: :rolleyes: :cool: :rolleyes: :cool: :rolleyes: :cool:

fffastt

[Suff]

Good thread.....Good idea....and good work.

I picked up some tools here.

[Derek2U]

OK I agree that ... the horse & rider are #1 factors; the trainer,
much lesser in handicapping. BUT its insane NOT to consider a
LOW WINNING JOCKEY riding for a LOW WINNING TRAINER.
That 2- LOW COMBO applies to many many horses, maybe as many as 1/2 the field! hehe ... forget Intent these guys are in a DREAD SLUMP & any winning horse cared for by this combo deserves a case of apples. I've kinda verfied by my large DB that this factor DOES MATTER greatly & a strategy could be: NEVER PLAY any horse with this Combo IF YOUR METHOD MADE THAT HORSE A TOP TWO CONTENDER. Now, a PS .... Maybe 4 months
my dad & I started looking at a Large DB ... and I heard this ref
to the LOW-LOW combo idea here and I think it was from GT ..
Game Theory. at any rate, I did test it on the DB and yeah,
the <10percent + <10percent Win Percent was a very revealing
cut-off point.

[VetScratch]

Good thread.....Good idea....and good work.

Here is a consolidated summary for those who may want to copy all thread references, links, and tips as one bundle:

Thread Starter Question:
Am looking for a good source of information which could provide specific "tells" (both positive and negative setups) of the regular trainers in the NY and California curcuits.

Summary Of On-Topic Answers:
Inside the Claiming Game by Steve Collison is a great read into trainer intent.
I think BRIS used to sell a notebook of trainer stats but only for NY.
Greg Lawlor had books on trainers in So Cal.
Mazur has a profile for trainers at SPA and Delmar (http://www.proghandicap.com/).
SMTW's Trainer Nuance Tip: the well-groomed groom tell.
You might want to check out Ed Bain's ideas on trainer intent (http://www.edbain.com/).

[turfspec]

Just recalled a Takach booklet from the late 90's "Winning on the S. Cal Circuit", in which he has a chapter on "Nuances" or tells in the classic poker sense. Couple I recall: Trainer Ted West in the paddock - it's a go. Son saddles the horse - never wins. West in a suit jacket - run to the windows. Trainer Ron Ellis: no suit - no win. Jockey D. Flores: If you see him lock his knees & lower his upper body parallel to the horse's back like an inverted L in the warm-up - he's shooting. Knees bent even a little - stay away.

Reminds me of my roots with the pacers @Pocono in the 60's. Owner Lombardi's wife in her mink - empty your pockets. No mink - No money. I love it!

Rob

[Shacopate]

4th race at the Spa today.

#10 El Prado Bob --- blinkers off, L1.

Not exactly a tell, but definitely "going for it."

Crist had mentioned in the SW that Belmont firsters (racing in the slop) should be given a hard look at Sar if they had support at the windows. And that mud form from Belmont doesn't often ship well to Saratoga.

Thanks Steven....24.20

[VetScratch]

Who keeps track of "telling" failures? Where are the formal and comprehensive statistics?

I strongly suspect "tells" are more susceptible to backfitting than any other angle in a handicapper's arsenal.

When they work, "tells" of intent derived in the paddock or during the post parade stick to our egos like sticky Post-it Notes. When any "tell" fails, it is usually easy to find an "obvious" excuse for defeat that dilutes the significance of the "tell" in our memories.

I believe "tells" are both more abundant and less significant than handicappers make them out to be.

If you lived around-the-clock among trainers and jockeys, you would witness hundreds of "precipitants" for behavioral aberrations during a racing program. We are not talking about folks who live like Ralph Nader or Mother Theresa.

Any barn or jockey with high expectations may send out "telling" signals. Moreover, races that include only one "well meant" entry occur very rarely.

However, on those special occasions when a barn is looking to cash a big gamble, I can guarantee you that a conscious effort is made to suppress "tells" and avoid special notice. Not because of shrewd handicappers, but because backsiders are very familiar with each others habits and mannerisms. Acute sensory perception is a premium talent among horsemen.

Finally, nothing delights a trainer more than beating his arch rivals when the paddock is full of Armani suits and the valet parking lots are filled to capacity.

Just to be a piss ant, I once sidled up to one of America's preeminent trainers and complimented his Armani in the KEE paddock. Then I added, "You must have a hot date or a new dress code back at the barn." Knowing what I meant, he laughed so loud it turned every head. Later that evening, our owner triumphantly sent a round of drinks to his table, and he broke out laughing again. :)

[gino]

joe's latest installment will be a real boon to all the recovering crankster gangters who've decided to become degenerate gamblers....
all u need to do is twitch all over the paddock/grandstand/box seats and look for the trainer who looks like he just did an 8 ball himself...
sure winner= trainer chewing gum, with a toothpick, while having a smoke...
add sunglasses you have Dusty Baker...
add sunglasses at night you have a hit song...

Takach, for all his perving around skipped a serious nuance, did the trainer take a prerace dump?
i know this is "indelicate", but everybody talks about the horses, and nobody watches the trainers...
I think Joe does, and i think this one is a keeper...
of course to know if this one had any value, you'd have to chart the trainers' everyday habits, so either you have the restroom attendant on retainer(not many of them left, victims of secondhand "smoke" and budget cutbacks), or you're a very nosy busy boy...
And Joe is,
God bless him.

gino
"Dano, get me a list of every man on the island wearing sunglasses..."

[Fastracehorse]

LOL - <did the trainer take a prerace dump?

+++++++++++++++++++++

I did one before I talked to my supervisor.

fffastt