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classhandicapper
04-29-2010, 05:05 PM
I think this will be a pretty good test for Rachel.

Assuming she's a little sharper this time around, at least it appears there's enough speed to keep her honest. We should get a much better line on where she is this year, though I think the chances of her duplicating her best figures from last year are virtually nil for a variety of reasons.

only11
04-29-2010, 05:42 PM
I think this will be a pretty good test for Rachel.

Assuming she's a little sharper this time around, at least it appears there's enough speed to keep her honest. We should get a much better line on where she is this year, though I think the chances of her duplicating her best figures from last year are virtually nil for a variety of reasons.
IMO Zardana beats her again..That was no fluke last time..

letswastemoney
04-29-2010, 05:52 PM
I think this will be a pretty good test for Rachel.

Assuming she's a little sharper this time around, at least it appears there's enough speed to keep her honest. We should get a much better line on where she is this year, though I think the chances of her duplicating her best figures from last year are virtually nil for a variety of reasons.
She already duplicated the beyer from her first start of 2009. No evidence yet that she won't move forward.

classhandicapper
04-29-2010, 05:59 PM
She already duplicated the beyer from her first start of 2009. No evidence yet that she won't move forward.

I think she will probably move forward and assert herself as one of the best dirt fillies in the country again (if not the best). I'll be disappointed if she loses tomorrow unless she gets involved in a crazy duel (which I don't foresee) .

I just don't think she'll reach the lofty heights of last year's Beyer peak unless she's assigned a figure I disagree with. I don't want to elaborate too much because I've already been in too many discussions like this. :rolleyes:

Zenyatta To Crush
04-29-2010, 06:02 PM
IMO Zardana beats her again..That was no fluke last time..
You are just saying that because you know Zardana will be at a good price. Obviously, Rachel appears to be much fitter this time around, and she only got beat by 3/4 of a length against Zardana last out.

If they were both the same odds and you had to bet, are you saying you'd bet on Zardana?

only11
04-29-2010, 06:10 PM
You are just saying that because you know Zardana will be at a good price. Obviously, Rachel appears to be much fitter this time around, and she only got beat by 3/4 lengths against Zardana last out.

If they were both the same odds and you had to bet, are you saying you'd bet on Zardana?
Im not betting the race..not enough credit given to Zardana for beating RA...RA got beat thats the bottom line,if she wasnt fit for her last race then they shouldve never run...excuses about why she lost..and not enough credit of Zardana winning..Theres nothing more i would love too see then a "RA explosion"
to get Derby weekend started...lets wait and see..

Robert Goren
04-29-2010, 06:14 PM
By tomorrow at this time, a lot of questions will be answered. (or Not);)

46zilzal
04-29-2010, 06:25 PM
IMO Zardana beats her again..That was no fluke last time..
That looks to be the case here however both the last two lines are from closer favoring tracks, but Z is two lines the better but that track usually favors speedier types over closers like her.

OntheRail
04-29-2010, 06:33 PM
Im not betting the race..not enough credit given to Zardana for beating RA...RA got beat thats the bottom line,if she wasnt fit for her last race then they shouldve never run...excuses about why she lost..and not enough credit of Zardana winning..Theres nothing more i would love too see then a "RA explosion"
to get Derby weekend started...lets wait and see..
If their is not respect for Zardana's win then play her against Rachel and clean up. But then again most know that Rachel's NOL was a tuning race where as Zardana was in it to win it. And this is really the reason your not betting Zardana to win cause this go around Rachel's IN IT TO WIN IT. :jump:

Robert Goren
04-29-2010, 06:35 PM
That looks to be the case here however both the last two lines are from closer favoring tracks, but Z is two lines the better but that track usually favors speedier types over closers like her. It hasn't yesterday and today. JMO

46zilzal
04-29-2010, 06:47 PM
It hasn't yesterday and today. JMO
REMEMBER I look at a completely different parameter called early/late balance and the track is not one way or the other.....It has never been the closers haven a synthetic track or FG provides its runners.

Hanover1
04-29-2010, 07:00 PM
I have always held the notion of third start after a layoff in high regard. Not sayin she (RA) don't get the job done either.....My money waits however.

joanied
04-29-2010, 07:06 PM
Im not betting the race..not enough credit given to Zardana for beating RA...RA got beat thats the bottom line,if she wasnt fit for her last race then they shouldve never run...excuses about why she lost..and not enough credit of Zardana winning..Theres nothing more i would love too see then a "RA explosion"
to get Derby weekend started...lets wait and see..

Do you think that Rachel was the only horse to have connections run knowing said horse was not 100%...happens all the time...it's called 'needing a race'...
IMO, Zardana is a very, very nice mare...but she beat a horse that wasn't fit and was not a happy horse by 3/4 length...she won't catch Rachel tomorrow!


Are you serious...you would love to see an RA explosion? Why would anyone want that to happen:faint:

FenceBored
04-29-2010, 07:09 PM
“I told the press – and no one believed me – that she (Rachel Alexandra) was only about 80% for that race. And I didn’t mind losing. My goal isn’t to win an allowance or listed race. My goal is to have her win grade I races, including the Breeders’ Cup. Now I’m predicting she’s about 90% (for the La Troienne), but we’ll see. You never know until they get out there.”
...
Asked if this was the final year of Rachel Alexandra’s racing career, Jackson said: “I don’t know. I’m not going to predict either way.”
-- http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56763/jackson-rachel-90-fit-should-win

only11
04-29-2010, 07:11 PM
If their is not respect for Zardana's win then play her against Rachel and clean up. But then again most know that Rachel's NOL was a tuning race where as Zardana was in it to win it. And this is really the reason your not betting Zardana to win cause this go around Rachel's IN IT TO WIN IT. :jump:
soooo she wasnt in it to win her last.... :lol: :lol:

only11
04-29-2010, 07:16 PM
Do you think that Rachel was the only horse to have connections run knowing said horse was not 100%...happens all the time...it's called 'needing a race'...
IMO, Zardana is a very, very nice mare...but she beat a horse that wasn't fit and was not a happy horse by 3/4 length...she won't catch Rachel tomorrow!


Are you serious...you would love to see an RA explosion? Why would anyone want that to happen:faint:
Joanie i mean it in a positive way...a dominating performance!!!!!!that type of explosion..

Hanover1
04-29-2010, 07:31 PM
soooo she wasnt in it to win her last.... :lol: :lol:
soooo horses have to win first out every time.... :lol: :lol:

OntheRail
04-29-2010, 07:45 PM
soooo she wasnt in it to win her last.... :lol: :lol:
Nope... or SA would not of told CB to keep the brakes on down the backstretch. Where as Zardana was sent with all she could muster.

;)

Tom
04-29-2010, 08:24 PM
By tomorrow at this time, a lot of questions will be answered. (or Not);)

And a whole lot of new threads started! :eek: :lol:

joanied
04-29-2010, 08:56 PM
Joanie i mean it in a positive way...a dominating performance!!!!!!that type of explosion..

OhOh...now I feel like a dufas:blush: ...I thought you meant more like an 'implosion'...my humble apologies, only11.
Now that that is cleared up:) ...I agree, it'd be a fantastic way to get the Derby weekedn going...despite the miserable weather (by the way...it is snowing here...been coming down for a couple of hours now:mad: )...

I see Rachel & Zardana finishing 1, 2...with Rachel winning...hey, maybe this will start a nice 'rivalry' between RA & Zardana...that'd be good!

only11...enjoy your weekend, and I'll think of you when RA crosses the wire first... :jump: :jump: :jump:

joanied
04-29-2010, 08:59 PM
“I told the press – and no one believed me – that she (Rachel Alexandra) was only about 80% for that race. And I didn’t mind losing. My goal isn’t to win an allowance or listed race. My goal is to have her win grade I races, including the Breeders’ Cup. Now I’m predicting she’s about 90% (for the La Troienne), but we’ll see. You never know until they get out there.”

...

Asked if this was the final year of Rachel Alexandra’s racing career, Jackson said: “I don’t know. I’m not going to predict either way.”

-- http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56763/jackson-rachel-90-fit-should-win

Thanks for posting that...I probably would have missed it, and I was wondering why we hadn't heard anything from JJ about the La Troinne...and I beleive all he said.
:ThmbUp:

joanied
04-29-2010, 09:00 PM
And a whole lot of new threads started! :eek: :lol:

And let's hope at least most will be positive for a change ;)

GaryG
04-29-2010, 09:08 PM
And let's hope at least most will be positive for a change ;)If you relly believe that....

I got some ocean front property in Arizona.
From my front porch you can see the sea.
I got some ocean front property in Arizona.
If you'll buy that, I'll throw the Golden Gate in free.

joanied
04-29-2010, 09:14 PM
If you relly believe that....

I got some ocean front property in Arizona.
From my front porch you can see the sea.
I got some ocean front property in Arizona.
If you'll buy that, I'll throw the Golden Gate in free.

GaryG...you missed the operative word...HOPE ;)

I noticed your post signature about Springtime in the mountains is as good as it gets... it is a little past 7pm here...30 degrees & falling...windy as hell and snowing like a SOB...and we have some crops starting to come up, and my husband is out irrigating...
we love Springtime in the mountains:rolleyes: :D

Kimsus
04-29-2010, 10:01 PM
Do you think that Rachel was the only horse to have connections run knowing said horse was not 100%...happens all the time...it's called 'needing a race'...
IMO, Zardana is a very, very nice mare...but she beat a horse that wasn't fit and was not a happy horse by 3/4 length...she won't catch Rachel tomorrow!


Are you serious...you would love to see an RA explosion? Why would anyone want that to happen:faint:

Hey Joanie,
Believe it or not, I hope Rachel wins tommorow also, she's great for racing whether we agree or not how good she really is. I dread the thought of another loss, knowing the consequences may be retirement. If she wins it puts her a step closer to the classic and a meeting with Zenyatta if Jess is sincere in challenging her. However Nov is a long way off and alot can happen. But it would keep the dream alive that these 2 may meet one day.

jamey1977
04-29-2010, 10:09 PM
Do you think that Rachel was the only horse to have connections run knowing said horse was not 100%...happens all the time...it's called 'needing a race'...
IMO, Zardana is a very, very nice mare...but she beat a horse that wasn't fit and was not a happy horse by 3/4 length...she won't catch Rachel tomorrow!


Are you serious...you would love to see an RA explosion? Why would anyone want that to happen:faint:
Rachel is shot. I'm sorry to say. Zardana at 4 to 1. ? Damn good bet. You Media hype believers put your money where your mouth is. Bet 100 dollars to win on Rachel Alexandra. Bet 1000 dollars. Rachel will show that she might run good, she still won't beat Zardana. That's how we beat this game. Live overlays from a stupid gullible crowd. The idiots will make Rachel what 3 to 5 ? She just got her butt kicked. Take the stupid crowds money. Live Overlays equals Success. Zardana by a half-length. Think I'm wrong? Bet 100 dollars to win on Rachel. My 100 dollars to win is on Zardana. See you at the windows.

letswastemoney
04-29-2010, 10:10 PM
Does anyone have an idea who will finish last in this race?

Will it be Be Fair? Distinctive Dixie? Morena??

McSock
04-29-2010, 10:26 PM
Nice group of horses. A race I will not play. IF RA is right, most likely she is the winner, but not the run-away she is used to. Then again, If she is not on top of Zardena early, can she run her down? I just dont have that feeling that says bet the race.
If RA wins big, the connections move forward with serious plans to meet Zen someplace. If she wins but not big or gets beat, future will be questionable.

BluegrassProf
04-29-2010, 10:36 PM
Nice piece by Joe Drape re: the LaT & RA, on NYT this afternoon:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/30/sports/30racing.html


And a whole lot of new threads started!Woot! :faint:

;)

Kimsus
04-29-2010, 11:27 PM
Does anyone have an idea who will finish last in this race?

Will it be Be Fair? Distinctive Dixie? Morena??

If Rachel is right, she should have no trouble fracturing the speed of the top 2 while holding off Zardana. I just think Zardana is a poor bet in this one, she is giving away the conditioning edge she had in the N.O Ladies and you certainly are not going to get 10-1 this time around. She has a chance if Rachel is headstrong and basically beats herself but Little Z won't beat her on a lack of conditioning this time around. Furthermore SA sounds confident going into this race and considering it is a Gr.2 she is the class of the race while not spotting substantial weight.

Dahoss9698
04-30-2010, 01:08 AM
I thought she'd never run again, so lining up in the gate tomorrow will prove me wrong already. If she is not shot and has indeed improved from her first run, she will be extremely difficult to beat. I'm still skeptical though. I hope we see the Rachel of last year or something close.

cj's dad
04-30-2010, 02:16 AM
Beware the #2 - Morena

Playing her under the two faves

Tex9Down
04-30-2010, 02:30 AM
joanied, Did you mean that RA was not fit in her last race? I beg to differ. She was fit and she lost. She may be more fit today. I hope so! She is an awesome horse! I think she will win.

WinterTriangle
04-30-2010, 04:44 AM
Distinctive Dixie might run good in "goo". I think she likes mud.

I don't like Zardana over the CDX surface. :confused:

I'll go Rachel, Unrivaled Belle, Distinctive Dixie

only11
04-30-2010, 07:16 AM
Nope... or SA would not of told CB to keep the brakes on down the backstretch. Where as Zardana was sent with all she could muster.

;)
You believe that.... :lol: :lol:

depalma113
04-30-2010, 08:17 AM
Rachel is shot. I'm sorry to say. Zardana at 4 to 1. ? Damn good bet. You Media hype believers put your money where your mouth is. Bet 100 dollars to win on Rachel Alexandra. Bet 1000 dollars. Rachel will show that she might run good, she still won't beat Zardana. That's how we beat this game. Live overlays from a stupid gullible crowd. The idiots will make Rachel what 3 to 5 ? She just got her butt kicked. Take the stupid crowds money. Live Overlays equals Success. Zardana by a half-length. Think I'm wrong? Bet 100 dollars to win on Rachel. My 100 dollars to win is on Zardana. See you at the windows.

If the horse was shot, she wouldn't be running. They are not going to take a chance with this horse unless they know she is rounding into form. She wins this prep for the Stephen Foster.

joanied
04-30-2010, 12:19 PM
Rachel is shot. I'm sorry to say. Zardana at 4 to 1. ? Damn good bet. You Media hype believers put your money where your mouth is. Bet 100 dollars to win on Rachel Alexandra. Bet 1000 dollars. Rachel will show that she might run good, she still won't beat Zardana. That's how we beat this game. Live overlays from a stupid gullible crowd. The idiots will make Rachel what 3 to 5 ? She just got her butt kicked. Take the stupid crowds money. Live Overlays equals Success. Zardana by a half-length. Think I'm wrong? Bet 100 dollars to win on Rachel. My 100 dollars to win is on Zardana. See you at the windows.

Wow...you sound pretty angry...I won't even try to give my opinion (again) in reply...after all, I am a 'media hype beleiver'...no way I can form my own opinion:rolleyes: ...hope you have a good Derby weekend and lighten up a bit:)

joanied
04-30-2010, 12:24 PM
Hey Joanie,
Believe it or not, I hope Rachel wins tommorow also, she's great for racing whether we agree or not how good she really is. I dread the thought of another loss, knowing the consequences may be retirement. If she wins it puts her a step closer to the classic and a meeting with Zenyatta if Jess is sincere in challenging her. However Nov is a long way off and alot can happen. But it would keep the dream alive that these 2 may meet one day.

I believe you:ThmbUp: I actually can't understand anyone that is going against Rachel...she wins today, we can all look forward to better things:jump:
Good luck and have a great weekend!

GaryG
04-30-2010, 12:28 PM
That's how we beat this game. Live overlays from a stupid gullible crowd. The idiots will make Rachel what 3 to 5 ? She just got her butt kicked. Take the stupid crowds money. Live Overlays equals Success. Zardana by a half-length. Think I'm wrong? Bet 100 dollars to win on Rachel. My 100 dollars to win is on Zardana. See you at the windows.With that kind of wisdom you must be a very well off gentleman. Perhaps you could share some more of your insights that make turf speculation so profitable for you?

46zilzal
04-30-2010, 12:32 PM
Unless RA has regressed considerably one has to consider her a logical contender....Big Favorite? hook it with others in an exotic

joanied
04-30-2010, 12:39 PM
joanied, Did you mean that RA was not fit in her last race? I beg to differ. She was fit and she lost. She may be more fit today. I hope so! She is an awesome horse! I think she will win.

tex...everyone knew Rachel was not fit for the NO...she was maybe 80-85%...it was common knowledge. She lost...by 1/2 -3/4 of a length...and that was after Calvin put away his stick...really, not bad.
Agreed...she is awesome:ThmbUp:

46zilzal
04-30-2010, 01:23 PM
Last RA race was nothing like last summer, SO if the young lady has lost it, the big late movers :3: :2: might pass her, but at 8.5 furlongs, the connections would be smart to just try and run away with it here.

ArlJim78
04-30-2010, 01:25 PM
I'm betting that RA is not the same as last year. I played big against her here.
I'll know when I see how she is moving on the backstretch.

46zilzal
04-30-2010, 01:29 PM
Won't see the big match NOW

letswastemoney
04-30-2010, 01:30 PM
What happened? Did the race start already?

only11
04-30-2010, 01:30 PM
Won't see the big match NOW
Excuses now??Only 95% fit..

Tom
04-30-2010, 01:31 PM
Down goes Rachael!
Down goes Rachael!


Let the games begin.......:rolleyes:

098poi
04-30-2010, 01:32 PM
I hate this. I am at work, will someone please let me know what happened!!

letswastemoney
04-30-2010, 01:32 PM
Will someone at least explain what happened? Sheesh.

ArlJim78
04-30-2010, 01:32 PM
she improved a bit, damn good filly, just over-rated by the public.

46zilzal
04-30-2010, 01:32 PM
Excuses now??Only 95% fit..
Might be too early for FLASH IN THE PAN, but I recall Storm Flag Flying and her collapse after being untouchable for a season.

WinterTriangle
04-30-2010, 01:33 PM
more $ in the show pool on her than in win pool the jumpers were out

boogazie
04-30-2010, 01:33 PM
For those who don't have access to a TV:

Unrivaled Belle wins by a neck.

Rachel was on the outside of Be Fair in soft fractions of 24 and change, and 48 and change. She takes over on the turn but with Unrivaled Belle charging on her outside. It's a tough fight throughout the stretch but ultimately Unrivaled Belle prevails by a head. Zardana finishes well back.

ArlJim78
04-30-2010, 01:33 PM
Will someone at least explain what happened? Sheesh.
Rachel was second, Unrivaled Belle won by a head.

RXB
04-30-2010, 01:34 PM
I'm betting that RA is not the same as last year. I played big against her here.
I'll know when I see how she is moving on the backstretch.

Good call. Hope you were on the #5.

That was a very pedestrian pace.

GregReinhart
04-30-2010, 01:34 PM
Will someone at least explain what happened? Sheesh.

She was up on the pace throughout with Be Fair at her inside, took the lead by about a length on the far turn, was engaged on the outside by Unrivaled Belle coming off the far turn, they dueled the entire length of the lane with Unrivaled Belle getting up in the final steps to win by a head/neck.

cuzimahustler
04-30-2010, 01:35 PM
Put a fork in her she's done. Maybe 6f sprint at GG?

WinterTriangle
04-30-2010, 01:35 PM
Distinctive Dixie might run good in "goo". I think she likes mud.

I don't like Zardana over the CDX surface. :confused:

I'll go Rachel, Unrivaled Belle, Distinctive Dixie

Came in Unrivaled Belle, Rachel, Morena, Distinctive Dixie.

thanks for that #2 Morena, CJ'd Dad!!!!!

ArlJim78
04-30-2010, 01:37 PM
Good call. Hope you were on the #5.

That was a very pedestrian pace.
yeah I hit Zardana and the Belle very hard. nice pick three plus I should have the next two locked up also.

only11
04-30-2010, 01:38 PM
Might be too early for FLASH IN THE PAN, m the nbut I recall Storm Flag Flying and her collapse after being untouchable for a season.
46 happens all the time..horses have 1 great year and then the media labels them the next coming...

Judge Gallivan
04-30-2010, 01:39 PM
Could it be that Rachel is a freak on mud and slop and just very good on fast dirt?

Watcher
04-30-2010, 01:39 PM
As8jq3nBwYY

46zilzal
04-30-2010, 01:40 PM
This horse's forte has been to make a destruction move in the middle of the race so that no long stretch duels needed to occur. Rider could not have done a better job, but the horse was just not there. ONLY HIT her 11-12 times this trip...All the riders I have talked to say the same thing: IF the horse does not respond after two to three hard cracks, THEY AREN'T GOING TO.

WinterTriangle
04-30-2010, 01:41 PM
Simon just said slowest splits of any race she's ever run, nothing under the engine.

Shoulda given her a real vacation Steve!!!!

She's not happy. Talking about that yesterday on phone with friend, she has been tossing her head in workouts. Not good.

broadreach
04-30-2010, 01:41 PM
thanks Watcher :ThmbUp:

BluegrassProf
04-30-2010, 01:41 PM
Excuses now??Only 95% fit..Cue the disrespectful armchair assholes.

I suggest you take a hint from a few other vehement RA doubters around here...Kimmy comes to mind (that's right, Kimsus, I mean you!)...who, though opinions may differ from others, ultimately respects the athlete. Ignoring that obligation humiliates no one but you.

Back to the race: Shame to see; exciting race nonetheless! :ThmbUp: Eagerly awaiting things to come...

chickenhead
04-30-2010, 01:41 PM
that's too bad, from the sounds out of her camp I thought she might do some running. And it doesn't sound like Zardana is much, either.

rrpic6
04-30-2010, 01:43 PM
Same exact ride by Borel as her last race. Go wide until the top of the stretch, then go to the rail. Time to dump him and get Gomez aboard.

RR

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 01:44 PM
Disappointed she lost, but it's obvious the fight is there. Let's face it, it took her a few starts last year to start busting out respectable/high speed figures...

I'm not one who thinks she's finished or should be retired at this point, and I said as much before this race was run.

Robert Goren
04-30-2010, 01:46 PM
Zardona finished a well beaten fifth. So much for the idea floated by the RA fans that she is a great dirt horse.

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 01:47 PM
She's not happy. Talking about that yesterday on phone with friend, she has been tossing her head in workouts. Not good.She was tossing her head in workouts AFTER her 2010 debut?

ArlJim78
04-30-2010, 01:47 PM
I'm not sure the race was all that bad for RA. yes she got beat but there was pretty good separation between the top two and the rest of the field.

Unrivaled Belle is a lightly raced but really sharp filly.

DeanT
04-30-2010, 01:48 PM
Very disappointing, but I guess no one is really that shocked this time.

Like most I am sure they will be done now. Jackson will not cheapen her. He is not that type of owner from what I can gather.

I hope people remember last year, not this year, because she is clearly not the same horse. Great three year old filly year; one of the best years a filly could possibly muster. I choose to remember that.

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 01:48 PM
Zardona finished a well beaten fifth. So much for the idea floated by the RA fans that she is a great dirt horse.Going by your logic, shouldn't Rachel have finished about 3/4 of a length behind Zardana in sixth?

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 01:49 PM
Like most I am sure they will be done now. Jackson will not cheapen her. He is not that type of owner from what I can gather.I hope you're wrong. I don't think she should be retired. Give her one to two more starts. If you look at her form from last year, although she was beating up on tomato cans in her first couple of races, making it look impressive, she wasn't running any faster than she is right now.

Maybe she hasn't improved from 3-4, but there is absolutely no indication at this point that she can't at least EQUAL her best from 2009. Give her a few more races before you throw in the towel.

Robert Goren
04-30-2010, 01:50 PM
You can say what you want, but there is no way that RA gets bet by that horse if she were anything close to the horse she was last year. JMO

Pick6
04-30-2010, 01:51 PM
Not finished, certainly, but we are now getting a reasonable estimation of her ability, which brackets her campaign toward shorter (1 to 1 1/8 mile) races.

Met Mile might work out for her.

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 01:53 PM
You can say what you want, but there is no way that RA gets bet by that horse if she were anything close to the horse she was last year. JMOObviously. Nothing I stated conflicts with this...

only11
04-30-2010, 01:53 PM
Cue the disrespectful armchair assholes.

I suggest you take a hint from a few other vehement RA doubters around here...Kimmy comes to mind (that's right, Kimsus, I mean you!)...who, though opinions may differ from others, ultimately respects the athlete. Ignoring that obligation humiliates no one but you.

Back to the race: Shame to see; exciting race nonetheless! :ThmbUp: Eagerly awaiting things to come...Knucklehead i never doubted RA..I just thought she was a bit overratted

McSock
04-30-2010, 01:53 PM
What happens now. RA didnt run a bad race, just not the same horse right now as she was last year.

Is she done? We know the connection will start with the excuses, but what about the horse? What is best for her? Yes she can compete, maybe not as well as last year, or do they retire her.

I am NOT a big RA fan, but I dont want to see the things she has done on the track in the past deeply tarnished with a full season of racing at less than a stellar level.

JBmadera
04-30-2010, 01:54 PM
we all need to be careful, the "how can you possibly go against the 1-5 over bet fav crowd/gal" could chime in any min and shame us into submission.

horses ain't NASCAR and some move forward and some don't. RA just hasn't and it certainly wasn't a sin to go against her.....:faint:

jb

DeanT
04-30-2010, 01:56 PM
Give her a few more races before you throw in the towel.

She's not the same horse. The mind is there, the try is there, but the body is not willing. Each time she races now brings more and more people out saying "she wasn't that good anyway". Jackson will not let that happen, imo. She was that good. And that's what a good owner would do with a wonderful filly who does not deserve to be cheapened.

JMO, but I am 99.9% sure that is what Jackson will do. I hope he does. She deserves racings respect. I do not want to watch her trying her guts out and losing to mares she could normally beat running backwards with me in the irons.

OntheRail
04-30-2010, 01:56 PM
Very disappointing, but I guess no one is really that shocked this time.

Like most I am sure they will be done now. Jackson will not cheapen her. He is not that type of owner from what I can gather.

I hope people remember last year, not this year, because she is clearly not the same horse. Great three year old filly year; one of the best years a filly could possibly muster. I choose to remember that.
I do not think Jackson puts her in the shed... they are not worried about her losing and are looking down the road. UB ran back to form. Rachel will as well. ;)

If they blow the door off to early Moss will not think about crossing the Rockies again this year. :lol:

Pick6
04-30-2010, 01:57 PM
Z will appear in the BC in some form, most likely the Classic.

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 01:59 PM
I think the object lesson here is, beyer speed figures, flashiness, likabilty, beating questionable fields is not the absolute measure when analyzing a horse's career. I doubt we will ever see the speed Rachel possed last year when she would fracture the pace horses and then hold on; I see her last 2 races as basically the same to last year's Woodward, in which if there had been a true quality closer, as in Zenyatta, she would have been suspectible late. I just hope this makes people appreciate and re-evaluate that longevity is just as much a measure as it is to some of the other critaria people look at when the discussion comes around to who is the better horse. I can't stress enough it isn't who beyers higher.

joanied
04-30-2010, 02:00 PM
I love the ones saying Rachel is done...IMO...not!! Unbrideled Belle has a longer stride than Rachel...and Rachel didn't change leads when she should have...and IMO, Kent D is a much stronger finisher than Calvin is...and not one person from RA's camp said she was at 100% for this...jeeze, it was close...when they loaded in the gate I said out loud, and I don't even know why...but I said "Calvin, watch for Kent, watch for Kent" :faint: jeeze.

I know a lot will bash me for saying this, but I really don't think Rachel is done...no predictions...but she ain't done. For some, I guess after a loss or two, they'd toss any horse out in the cold...I prefer to remain optimistic...

they just interviewed Asmussen...he said she's healthy and very sound...and they will go on with her...Calvin said she galloped out strong...that came from Asmussen, no one was able to talk directly to Calvin...I really think Kent out finished Calvin, more than UB out finishing Rachel...and they were so glued to each other, Calvin couldn't switch his stick...at the last jump, Kent pushed as his mare's head went down for the bob...IMO, kent is simply stronger than Calvin at the wire.

Rachel will be back...she will win her next one...this is not going to get me down too much.

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 02:01 PM
I think the object lesson here is, beyer speed figures, flashiness, likabilty, beating questionable fields is not the absolute measure when analyzing a horse's career. I doubt we will ever see the speed Rachel possed last year when she would fracture the pace horses and then hold on; I see her last 2 races as basically the same to last year's Woodward, in which if there had been a true quality closer, as in Zenyatta, she would have been suspectible late. I just hope this makes people appreciate and re-evaluate that longevity is just as much a measure as it is to some of the other critaria people look at when the discussion comes around to who is the better horse. I can't stress enough it isn't who beyers higher.Another silly post.

Questionable fields? Are we going to go through this nonsense again? Not on my watch.

Longevity? Zenyatta and Rachel have run the same exact number of times.

Pick6
04-30-2010, 02:01 PM
I think the object lesson here is, beyer speed figures, flashiness, likabilty, beating questionable fields is not the absolute measure when analyzing a horse's career. I doubt we will ever see the speed Rachel possed last year when she would fracture the pace horses and then hold on; I see her last 2 races as basically the same to last year's Woodward, in which if there had been a true quality closer, as in Zenyatta, she would have been suspectible late. I just hope this makes people appreciate and re-evaluate that longevity is just as much a measure as it is to some of the other critaria people look at when the discussion comes around to who is the better horse. I can't stress enough it isn't who beyers higher.
Some horses display great ability over a short period of time. Some display it over multiple campaigns. Those who can do it over longer periods of time are generally considered the true greats.

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 02:01 PM
I believe you:ThmbUp: I actually can't understand anyone that is going against Rachel...she wins today, we can all look forward to better things:jump:
Good luck and have a great weekend!

Sorry Joanied, I sort of knew Rachel was going to have a fight today when she didn't have that high cruising speed that she showed much of last yr. I doubt we will see her against Zenyatta now, infact I don't know if and when we see her again. Unfortunate, because Rachel is good for racing for all fans.

46zilzal
04-30-2010, 02:03 PM
I think the object lesson here is, beyer speed figures, flashiness, likabilty, beating questionable fields is not the absolute measure when analyzing a horse's career. I doubt we will ever see the speed Rachel possed last year when she would fracture the pace horses and then hold on; I see her last 2 races as basically the same to last year's Woodward, in which if there had been a true quality closer, as in Zenyatta, she would have been susceptible late. .
Macho Again was a true quality closer but then Saratoga does not run to their likings.

LottaKash
04-30-2010, 02:03 PM
She's not the same horse. The mind is there, the try is there, but the body is not willing. Each time she races now brings more and more people out saying "she wasn't that good anyway". Jackson will not let that happen, imo. She was that good. And that's what a good owner would do with a wonderful filly who does not deserve to be cheapened.

JMO, but I am 99.9% sure that is what Jackson will do. I hope he does. She deserves racings respect. I do not want to watch her trying her guts out and losing to mares she could normally beat running backwards with me in the irons.

It seemed to me that she was very anxious, struggling a bit, and tentative, in both of her last two races, which included this one today...

Still, on the lighter side, she is in "horse-country" and perhaps she got a whiff of some hansome stud, and she is just plain "in love"...

best,

46zilzal
04-30-2010, 02:04 PM
Some horses display great ability over a short period of time. Some display it over multiple campaigns. Those who can do it over longer periods of time are generally considered the true greats.
exactly FOREGO is the best example

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 02:05 PM
Another silly post.

Questionable fields? Are we going to go through this nonsense again? Not on my watch.

Longevity? Zenyatta and Rachel have run the same exact number of times.

There is nothing silly about it, I hope you don't go into this censureship thing again because Rachel lost, but if you read my post closely, I pointed out her race in the Woodward was similar to her 2 races this year. You may disagree with me about the quality of closers in the Woodward, but I don't see how in good conscience how this is editable and to run a true horseracing discussion board.

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 02:07 PM
There is nothing silly about it, I hope you don't go into this censureship thing again because Rachel lost, but if you read my post closely, I pointed out her race in the Woodward was similar to her 2 races this year. You may disagree with me about the quality of closers in the Woodward, but I don't see how in good conscience how this is editable and to run a true horseracing discussion board.I'm not going to allow another boring round of nonsense discussion where some try and say the horses she beat last year were somehow weak. If you want to read about stuff like that, there are plenty of other threads from the recent past to whet your appetite.

The New York Times doesn't keep reprinting the same letters to the editor every week, do they?

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 02:10 PM
Macho Again was a true quality closer but then Saratoga does not run to their likings.

In the context of what this whole Zenyatta/Rachel debate has centered around. I think we would both agree that Macho Again is not the horse Zenyatta was or is. That is the key distinction here, but perhaps that can wait for another day, as I can see this board is probably going to get abit emotional in the next few days. Rachel was/is a very good horse, she did some very good things in her career, I'll leave it at that.

One thing I would like to add, I hope she doesn't retire after today, not to sound to repetitive she's far too good for racing and she is still very competive on the track to be rushed into retirement.

eastie
04-30-2010, 02:11 PM
nothin for nothin but she ran awesome. the other filly just ran more awesome. the filly who beat her got a tremendous ride from Kent and a perfect trip. they were both flying at the finish. Except for Zenyatta, most hosses lose a couple of races no matter how good they are. It's not like she didn't run her race. Just like her last loss, the other hoss ran really well to beat her. no shame in losing to that filly today.

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 02:16 PM
In the context of what this whole Zenyatta/Rachel debate has centered around. I think we would both agree that Macho Again is not the horse Zenyatta was or is.Quite frankly, Zenyatta did not beat anyone of the caliber of Rachel last year, if you want to be honest about things. But again, there are plenty of existing threads that talk about last year.

46zilzal
04-30-2010, 02:17 PM
Quite frankly, Zenyatta did not beat anyone of the caliber of Rachel last year, if you want to be honest about things. But again, there are plenty of existing threads that talk about last year.
BREEDER'S CUP classic ring a bell?

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 02:19 PM
Quite frankly, Zenyatta did not beat anyone of the caliber of Rachel last year, if you want to be honest about things. But again, there are plenty of existing threads that talk about last year.

This is not accurate, for you to say this, it is quite surprising.

WinterTriangle
04-30-2010, 02:20 PM
Macho Again was a true quality closer

Against Zenyatta he wouldn't have a chance. There's closers, then there's CLOSERS

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 02:20 PM
BREEDER'S CUP classic ring a bell?What horse in the BC Classic was better than Rachel was in 2009?

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 02:21 PM
This is not accurate, for you to say this, it is quite surprising.It's deadly accurate. Name a horse who finished behind Zenyatta in the 2009 BC Classic that was better than Rachel in 2009?

BluegrassProf
04-30-2010, 02:22 PM
I think the object lesson here is, beyer speed figures, flashiness, likabilty, beating questionable fields is not the absolute measure when analyzing a horse's career. I doubt we will ever see the speed Rachel possed last year when she would fracture the pace horses and then hold on; I see her last 2 races as basically the same to last year's Woodward, in which if there had been a true quality closer, as in Zenyatta, she would have been suspectible late. I just hope this makes people appreciate and re-evaluate that longevity is just as much a measure as it is to some of the other critaria people look at when the discussion comes around to who is the better horse. I can't stress enough it isn't who beyers higher.Kimmy: Try as many might, there's absolutely no use knocking RA's 2009 season. No use at all. One can certainly keep trying, if he/she has the time, but it's just not gonna happen. It's in the books - every number, competitor, mile, record, and otherwise - and fresh in MANY memories as sitting comfortably at the top of the all-time 3yo filly list. Nothing's shaking it, even a smart ride by Kent. :ThmbUp:

Given the quality of that season, do I feel that RA would've won a dirt matchup with Zenyatta last year? Yes, I surely do (a sentiment echoed by others here). But that's neither here nor there, and we've been over that too many damned times...please, no mas. :faint:

That said, it remains to be seen what impact that incredibly ambitious campaign has on her 2010 season. Do I make assumptions about 2010? Well, probably, but I certainly don't try. If there's a lesson learned, in fact, perhaps it's that a relatively conservative campaign over time ultimately bodes well for some athletes (Zenyatta being an excellent example). Now, please understand, that is NOT a Zen-knock. NotNotNot. "Conservative" is defined not necessarily by competition (we all know both RA and Zen have faced excellent competition), but by placing, timing, travel, and other variables over the course of individual seasons and entire careers, and longevity is absolutely a remarkable trait in a horse at the highest levels. That's what's been so difficult for too many to understand: RA and Zen are each extraordinary, but very different. Different animals, different attitudes, different campaign, different career paths. It matters only to each individual race fan which is defined as "superior," based on the things most hotly valued by that individual fan. And arguing that case is a lesson in futility.

What I do NOT think - and this should be fairly obvious - is that the way this season unfolds has a bearing on RA's 2009 campaign - a history-making and breathtaking campaign - that we're all proud of (I know you are, too; I certainly understand that you appreciate the game, as stated earlier). How Rachel has matured, the impact of last season on her campaign this time 'round...these things remain to be seen. But there's absolutely no use for anyone at all to disparage or dismiss in retrospect...that's myopic, unfair, and largely illogical.

Do I think RA's thrown in the towel? Acourse not. As exciting as ever. :ThmbUp:

46zilzal
04-30-2010, 02:22 PM
What horse in the BC Classic was better than Rachel was in 2009?
the top two EASILY

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 02:24 PM
the top two EASILYI thought I said name a horse who FINISHED BEHIND ZENYATTA in the 2009 BC Classic who was BETTER than Rachel in 2009. Well, I said that in the reply before the one you quoted...

Gio Ponti? You have to be kidding me...

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 02:29 PM
It's deadly accurate. Name a horse who finished behind Zenyatta in the 2009 BC Classic that was better than Rachel in 2009?

Hypothicals will lead to alot of wasted cyberspace, do you think Rachel would have beaten the Classic field? Summer Bird was only 4th, and since you want hypotheticals Summer Bird IMO would have ran by Rachel in the Travers had they met at the classic distance, obcourse it is hypothetical but one only has to use reason to see how Summer Bird was improving to know he was a true 1 1/4 horse couple that with Rachel desperately holding off MA in the Woodward earning a 108 while Summer Bird ran a 110 in hand over the Travers field.

I'm pretty sure someone is going to point out Rachel beat Summer Bird in the Haskell but if anyone thinks that Summer Bird ran his best race, I guess they would access Munnings is the same horse as Summer Bird is at 1 1/8 being he only finished a long neck behind him in 3rd. Really...

chickenhead
04-30-2010, 02:31 PM
stop it!

The only thing less interesting than people talking about who they believe is "better", whatever that might mean to them, is listening to them trying to prove it.

anyone who didn't enjoy and marvel at Rachel last year is a tool. Anyone that hasn't enjoyed and marveled at Zenyatta for several years is a tool.

There is no X in this equation to be solved.

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 02:35 PM
If it hasn't been mentioned already, maybe we can stop with the Zardana is better than Zenyatta on dirt crazy talk.

gm10
04-30-2010, 02:35 PM
You can say what you want, but there is no way that RA gets bet by that horse if she were anything close to the horse she was last year. JMO

Hey don't knock Unrivaled Belle. She's a good filly who's only been improving. Rachel Alexandra looked close to full fitness to me, it's not like Zardana or the others were even close.

letswastemoney
04-30-2010, 02:37 PM
If it hasn't been mentioned already, maybe we can stop with the Zardana is better than Zenyatta on dirt crazy talk.
Although I laughed at Shirreff's quote at first, maybe there is something to his Rockies theory lol

gm10
04-30-2010, 02:37 PM
Quite frankly, Zenyatta did not beat anyone of the caliber of Rachel last year, if you want to be honest about things. But again, there are plenty of existing threads that talk about last year.

I believe Summer Bird and Mine That Bird were in the Classic. Are you telling me Macho Again would have won the Classic?

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 02:38 PM
Given the quality of that season, do I feel that RA would've won a dirt matchup with Zenyatta last year? Yes, I surely do (a sentiment echoed by others here). But that's neither here nor there, and we've been over that too many damned times...please, no mas. :faint:



You are slowly making progress, you are starting to see the light. You said last year...There's still hope for you.

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 02:41 PM
I believe Summer Bird and Mine That Bird were in the Classic. Are you telling me Macho Again would have won the Classic?Two horses whom Rachel beat handily...next....

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 02:42 PM
stop it!

The only thing less interesting than people talking about who they believe is "better", whatever that might mean to them, is listening to them trying to prove it.

anyone who didn't enjoy and marvel at Rachel last year is a tool. Anyone that hasn't enjoyed and marveled at Zenyatta for several years is a tool. I agree. That's why I said what I said to Kimsus. But I see we are heading down the road to boredomville already...so maybe I should just close this thread if it's not going to be about the La Troienne anymore...

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 02:43 PM
Two horses whom Rachel beat handily...next....

I thought Rachel beat Mine That Bird by a neck or 1/2 length in the Preakness. This is handy in your opinion?

Rachel was a very good horse when she had her way, but this is getting crazy, her wins in the Woodward and Preakness were not won handily.

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 02:45 PM
I agree. That's why I said what I said to Kimsus. But I see we are heading down the road to boredomville already...so maybe I should just close this thread if it's not going to be about the La Troienne anymore...

Fair enough PA, it does seem we are spinning our wheels unless someone has something new to add.

gm10
04-30-2010, 02:46 PM
Two horses whom Rachel beat handily...next....

No, not next. Explain to me how "Zenyatta did not beat anyone of the caliber of Rachel last year, if you want to be honest about things".

gm10
04-30-2010, 02:47 PM
I thought Rachel beat Mine That Bird by a neck or 1/2 length in the Preakness. This is handy in your opinion?

Rachel was a very good horse when she had her way, but this is getting crazy, her wins in the Woodward and Preakness were not won handily.

If you want to see handily, look at how Zenyatta won the Classic, that's my suggestion!

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 02:55 PM
I thought Rachel beat Mine That Bird by a neck or 1/2 length in the Preakness. Actually, I believe the official margin was a solid length...

46zilzal
04-30-2010, 02:56 PM
Actually, I believe the official margin was a solid length...
After getting the absolute hell beat out of her..

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 02:57 PM
No, not next. Explain to me how "Zenyatta did not beat anyone of the caliber of Rachel last year, if you want to be honest about things".She didn't. She beat a couple of horses Rachel also beat, plus she beat a turf horse who clearly isn't as good on synthetics; she beat a cripple in Rip Van Winkle; who else am I forgetting from that rather forgettable field?

The thread will be closing soon if nobody wants to talk about the La Troienne, so better get your response in quickly...

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 02:59 PM
After getting the absolute hell beat out of her..Who cares? So did Holy Bull in the Travers...but I know you're going to tell me he sucked too...your judgement is clearly lacking when it comes to this kind of thing...

Want to talk about the gallop-out too while we're at it in the Preakness? She was way ahead of him at the 1 1/4 mark....so much for the theory that Mine That Bird was gonna blow by her at any moment...

Show Me the Wire
04-30-2010, 03:02 PM
She didn't. She beat a couple of horses Rachel also beat, plus she beat a turf horse who clearly isn't as good on synthetics; she beat a cripple in Rip Van Winkle; who else am I forgetting from that rather forgettable field?

The thread will be closing soon if nobody wants to talk about the La Troienne, so better get your response in quickly...

I think Zardana's poor performance is somewhat attributable to her current frequent shipping.

FenceBored
04-30-2010, 03:10 PM
I think Zardana's poor performance is somewhat attributable to her current frequent shipping.

Actually I think it comes from keeping her in training over the winter. Saw a shot of her in the paddock and thought her coat look a little dull. Shirreffs has clearly been lax in giving her the rest she needs. :)

BluegrassProf
04-30-2010, 03:11 PM
You are slowly making progress, you are starting to see the light. You said last year...There's still hope for you. :D

That's just it: there's no light to see! :bang:

I fundamentally respect RA and Z alike - and any other top-tier horse on the track, from Quality Road to ever-luvin' Mine That Bird - for their respective accomplishments, as any reasonably seasoned racing fan does...do I place more weight on certain factors than on others, with respect to their accomplishments, and have those biases been aired on this forum ad finitum? Well, clearly. Does that make me "right?" Well, of course not. Thought I really like to think it does, as you do yourself.

We've compared apples to oranges, campaigns to careers. We've countered statistics with turnouts, titles with weights, and speed figures with jockey shoe sizes. We've made our cases, vocally and hopelessly (some of us with more flailing than others..gm10, for example, please to promptly take note), and are absolutely certain that our judgement is word, but that's not how this game works. We've said "Horse X is the Real Deal with an Asterisk," finding fault and making wild accusations and claims. Circular. Exhausting. So, so, SO redundant.

I mean, Jesus H. Christ...look above this post. How many times can we go around on this? As I said, it's illogical, absolutely pointless, and misses the scope of what this whole game is all about.

With respect to the LT, and the point of all this: well sure, we all want the dubya, but for me, a place is just dandy...sure we prefer the former, but call me a throwback...I like a little drama in my stories. Can this still, even now, be the start of a great campain, despite the "all is lost!"s? Without a doubt. :ThmbUp:

At the end of the day, "greatness" is a matter of judgement, and more importantly, a matter of perspective. Anyone who can't figure that out is...well...a tool. ;)

Jasonm921
04-30-2010, 03:23 PM
Sometimes greatness is fleeting. Happens in boxing all the time. See Roy Jone's JR. Doesn't mean she is done but I would like to see her back in three weeks this time to keep her sharp. I never like long layoffs for athletes who had a hard race or fight. I believe they should have threw her in an easy spot after the woodward but what is done is done. Bring her back and soon and get her mind right.

JustRalph
04-30-2010, 03:28 PM
Put a fork in her she's done. Maybe 6f sprint at GG?


What? All of 5 posts for that lunacy to be put out there......... :lol:

She is not finishing like she did last year, but I notice she also isn't heading into the stretch with 5-6 length leads either...... Calvin got into her a little more this time........

Show Me the Wire
04-30-2010, 03:29 PM
Jasonm921:

Don't you know boxing is a terrible analogy to horse racing? :lol: :lol: :lol: Hope you don't catch as much grief as I did.

JustRalph
04-30-2010, 03:29 PM
stop it!

The only thing less interesting than people talking about who they believe is "better", whatever that might mean to them, is listening to them trying to prove it.

anyone who didn't enjoy and marvel at Rachel last year is a tool. Anyone that hasn't enjoyed and marveled at Zenyatta for several years is a tool.

There is no X in this equation to be solved.

perfect post on the subject :ThmbUp:

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 03:33 PM
Actually, I believe the official margin was a solid length...

That was her best race last year IMO.

joanied
04-30-2010, 03:35 PM
Sometimes greatness is fleeting. Happens in boxing all the time. See Roy Jone's JR. Doesn't mean she is done but I would like to see her back in three weeks this time to keep her sharp. I never like long layoffs for athletes who had a hard race or fight. I believe they should have threw her in an easy spot after the woodward but what is done is done. Bring her back and soon and get her mind right.

I said that same thing in one of my posts...SA will want to 'rest' her for 5 weeks or something stupid ike that...when IMO, they should run her back asap...3 wks would be good...and get that freakin' figure eight off her.

Show Me the Wire
04-30-2010, 03:36 PM
What? All of 5 posts for that lunacy to be put out there......... :lol:

She is not finishing like she did last year, but I notice she also isn't heading into the stretch with 5-6 length leads either...... Calvin got into her a little more this time........

Isn't that the problem? Both of this year's losses came while Rachel had soft fractions and couldn't outfinish the horse hooking her before the stretch.

Jasonm921
04-30-2010, 03:36 PM
Regarding boxing- it's probably the only individualized sport where the athlete appears to lose it overnight. Where a fighter gets the fight beaten out of them. Sometimes this happens to horses as well. Remember meadow star. That horse was never the same after the mothergoose. It happens to a lot of horses where they don't want to revisit that maximum effort.

Show Me the Wire
04-30-2010, 03:38 PM
I said that same thing in one of my posts...SA will want to 'rest' her for 5 weeks or something stupid ike that...when IMO, they should run her back asap...3 wks would be good...and get that freakin' figure eight off her.

I coughed up my coffe, when I saw that nose band on her.

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 03:39 PM
I was just able to catch the race and didn't notice what Rachel was wearing. I thought they said they were finished experimenting with her...

WTF?

andymays
04-30-2010, 03:41 PM
Isn't that the problem? Both of this year's losses came while Rachel had soft fractions and couldn't outfinish the horse hooking her before the stretch.


Right. Nothing to offer when set down after a soft early trip.

The connections knew she wasn't the same (they hoped she was) before her first race back earlier in the year.

When Jackson came out and said she was 90% for today's race you knew she wasn't right. No need to hedge for this race if he knew she was the same Rachel from last year.

HOY in 2009 and deservedly so.

Grits
04-30-2010, 03:51 PM
nothin for nothin but she ran awesome. the other filly just ran more awesome. the filly who beat her got a tremendous ride from Kent and a perfect trip. they were both flying at the finish. Except for Zenyatta, most hosses lose a couple of races no matter how good they are. It's not like she didn't run her race. Just like her last loss, the other hoss ran really well to beat her. no shame in losing to that filly today.

One can easily agree with you on this Eastie. I'm, indeed, sorry that she lost, but she ran her butt off in the stretch, she didn't wanna give up, she was neck and neck with Unrivaled Belle. Same scenario in the N.O. Ladies. So, I ain't backing off her at this point.

Unrivaled Belle was the one horse I was concerned about, having told someone, here, several weeks ago in a pm (and you know who you are, LOL)--if she runs against Rachel or Zenyatta, she could be tough since her last three have been at a 1 1/8th. She's all distance, and has been. Only one of her races, have been a sprint.

I don't think he was real high on my thought. LOLOL That, along with I never underestimate Mott either.

I didn't have anything on the race, only the hope that Rachel would win it. I hope to see her again, too. She ain't done.

Forgive the after race comment. I've never been one to announce too much about who I like, or think worthy of my consideration. Just don't feel the need, besides we're wrong more often than we're right.

gm10
04-30-2010, 03:56 PM
Meanwhile, Macho Again is running in the Alysheba!

gm10
04-30-2010, 03:58 PM
Hmmm, not very good

Kimsus
04-30-2010, 04:05 PM
There's just no way of ignoring it, last year's Woodward was atrocious, I don't think any horse has come out of it to win, yet run well yet despite multiple trys. Well atleast Rachel showed up her 2 races, where has Bullsbay, Macho Again, and Cool Coal Man been?

Wickel
04-30-2010, 04:36 PM
Put a fork in her she's done. Maybe 6f sprint at GG?


Ironically, "Dandy" Don Meredith lives here in Santa Fe now. Think it's time to give him a call. "Turn out the lights, the party's over, Rachel."

098poi
04-30-2010, 04:52 PM
Just got home and watched the race. Rachel has nothing to be ashamed of that I could see. Certainly nothing that would justify throwing in the towel.

Hosshead
04-30-2010, 04:54 PM
There are 2 changes Rachel needs, that are VERY CLOSE to her (in fact touching her).

1. A different bridle.
2. A different jock.

Take the figure 8 bridle off and put on what she was accustomed to last year.
Replace Calvin with Gomez. ---And todays race would have been a Win.

46zilzal
04-30-2010, 04:58 PM
There are 2 changes Rachel needs, that are VERY CLOSE to her (in fact touching her).

1. A different bridle.
2. A different jock.

Take the figure 8 bridle off and put on what she was accustomed to last year.
Replace Calvin with Gomez. ---And todays race would have been a Win.
the rider can't get off and push.

That horse had good position stayed out of trouble and came up short....What would a different rider do except let her go?

Tom
04-30-2010, 05:05 PM
stop it!

The only thing less interesting than people talking about who they believe is "better", whatever that might mean to them, is listening to them trying to prove it.

anyone who didn't enjoy and marvel at Rachel last year is a tool. Anyone that hasn't enjoyed and marveled at Zenyatta for several years is a tool.

There is no X in this equation to be solved.

Yes...I've cashed three races since she got beat. Nothing to see here...move along.

joanied
04-30-2010, 05:05 PM
I was just able to catch the race and didn't notice what Rachel was wearing. I thought they said they were finished experimenting with her...

WTF?

yep...WTF is right :bang: ...they even caused showmethewire to choke up his coffee:D (hope you're OK,SMTW)... they are not exactly doing what they say, are they:confused: ...when I saw she was still wearing that F'n thing I nearly spit blood...
maybe NOW they'll yank that thing off her...for good...what is wrong with those people:faint: ...if it ain't broke...yadda, yadda, yadda!!

Wickel
04-30-2010, 05:07 PM
There are 2 changes Rachel needs, that are VERY CLOSE to her (in fact touching her).

1. A different bridle.
2. A different jock.

Take the figure 8 bridle off and put on what she was accustomed to last year.
Replace Calvin with Gomez. ---And todays race would have been a Win.

She might have won with Gomez aboard. But, hey, she received a snail's pace through the first half mile, was positioned perfectly and just didn't have what it took. And this was again against a non-descript field. There was no Zenyatta, Careless Jewel, Justwhistledixie or St. Trinians. She's a very good mare, but nowhere near the class of the aforementioned horses. I expect her to come back and have a decent campaign, but she ain't going to touch the Z Lady.

Hosshead
04-30-2010, 08:11 PM
She might have won with Gomez aboard. But, hey, she received a snail's pace through the first half mile, was positioned perfectly and just didn't have what it took. And this was again against a non-descript field. There was no Zenyatta, Careless Jewel, Justwhistledixie or St. Trinians. She's a very good mare, but nowhere near the class of the aforementioned horses. I expect her to come back and have a decent campaign, but she ain't going to touch the Z Lady.
I agree Wickel, she's not what she used to be (yet).
But I think with the changes I mentioned, she'll continue to improve and race into shape, off the layoff. And I think a top notch jockey (like Gomez) would help her improvement.

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2010, 08:14 PM
There's just no way of ignoring it, last year's Woodward was atrocious, I don't think any horse has come out of it to win, yet run well yet despite multiple trys. Well atleast Rachel showed up her 2 races, where has Bullsbay, Macho Again, and Cool Coal Man been?Wow.

Does it really matter though? Rachel would have won the Alysheba today...same pace...slower final time by the boys...

They were their credentials COMING INTO the Woodward.

What has Gio Ponti done since the BC Classic? I recall him losing...don't you?

Cratos
04-30-2010, 09:53 PM
I love the ones saying Rachel is done...IMO...not!! Unbrideled Belle has a longer stride than Rachel...and Rachel didn't change leads when she should have...and IMO, Kent D is a much stronger finisher than Calvin is...and not one person from RA's camp said she was at 100% for this...jeeze, it was close...when they loaded in the gate I said out loud, and I don't even know why...but I said "Calvin, watch for Kent, watch for Kent" :faint: jeeze.

I know a lot will bash me for saying this, but I really don't think Rachel is done...no predictions...but she ain't done. For some, I guess after a loss or two, they'd toss any horse out in the cold...I prefer to remain optimistic...

they just interviewed Asmussen...he said she's healthy and very sound...and they will go on with her...Calvin said she galloped out strong...that came from Asmussen, no one was able to talk directly to Calvin...I really think Kent out finished Calvin, more than UB out finishing Rachel...and they were so glued to each other, Calvin couldn't switch his stick...at the last jump, Kent pushed as his mare's head went down for the bob...IMO, kent is simply stronger than Calvin at the wire.

Rachel will be back...she will win her next one...this is not going to get me down too much.

Your summation and analysis is right about the race. I am a Zenyatta fan who predicted that Rachel would win easily, but she didn't and she is not finished, but I do believe that Borel is finished as her jockey.

Although the pace of the La Troienne was somewhat pedestrian, it was faster than both the Alysheba (which incluced Macho Again and Bullsbay) and the KY Oaks.

From what I saw I believe that once Borel got the lead, he should have allowed Rachel to “run” putting away Be Fair and forcing Unrivaled Belle to play catch up.

However that didn’t happen and she still finished in a faster time than her male rivals in the Alysheba without changing leads and running wide most of the race.

andymays
04-30-2010, 09:56 PM
Nothing matters except when "set down".

When "set down" nothing happened.

FenceBored
05-01-2010, 10:35 AM
Beyers for Oaks Day (http://www.drf.com/stakeresults/drfStakeResults.jsp)

94 - Ky Oaks
97 - American Turf
101 - Alysheba
99 - CD Turf Sprint
74 - Ky Juv.
103 - La Troienne

cj
05-01-2010, 10:52 AM
Beyers for Oaks Day (http://www.drf.com/stakeresults/drfStakeResults.jsp)

94 - Ky Oaks
97 - American Turf
101 - Alysheba
99 - CD Turf Sprint
74 - Ky Juv.
103 - La Troienne

That should probably end the Blind Luck Derby talk. The pace was hot and all she could muster was a 94.

Tom
05-01-2010, 10:56 AM
What has Gio Ponti done since the BC Classic? I recall him losing...don't you?

Yes, but the BC winner has come back to win two in a row. ;)

I'm probably now sitting at the Red Hat Ladies table at Toga this year!

Jasonm921
05-01-2010, 11:11 AM
yeah but Tom the second place finisher in the Apple Blossom got like an 84 Beyer...She could have faced non winners of other than type horses and had the same type of competition.

FenceBored
05-01-2010, 11:36 AM
yeah but Tom the second place finisher in the Apple Blossom got like an 84 Beyer...She could have faced non winners of other than type horses and had the same type of competition.

And the 3rd place finisher in the AB (Be Fair) lost to Zenyatta by 5.75 lengths, and just finished 22.75 lengths back in the La Troienne. [From the useless and irrelevant facts division]

Gorgeous George
05-04-2010, 08:24 AM
Cant see RA winning another race this year, theres no chance Assmusen will let her take on the mighty Zenyatta thats just suicide :D

PaceAdvantage
05-04-2010, 07:12 PM
Cant see RA winning another race this year, theres no chance Assmusen will let her take on the mighty Zenyatta thats just suicide :DFunny stuff... :lol:

I take it in your alternate universe, RA lost by open lengths instead of a mere head last time...leading you to believe she will never win again...

The only way she never wins again this year, is if she doesn't race again this year. Maybe that's what you meant to say.

horses4courses
05-04-2010, 07:23 PM
Funny stuff... :lol:

I take it in your alternate universe, RA lost by open lengths instead of a mere head last time...leading you to believe she will never win again...

The only way she never wins again this year, is if she doesn't race again this year. Maybe that's what you meant to say.

The way she has run this year, she has every chance of winning a G2.
If you believe that she will achieve more, then you're assuming all is going according to plan with her....just a build up to the crescendo. I don't buy it.

RockHardTen1985
05-04-2010, 07:27 PM
Funny stuff... :lol:

I take it in your alternate universe, RA lost by open lengths instead of a mere head last time...leading you to believe she will never win again...

The only way she never wins again this year, is if she doesn't race again this year. Maybe that's what you meant to say.


What is your opinion on why Rachel is 0-2 this year?

PaceAdvantage
05-04-2010, 07:30 PM
What is your opinion on why Rachel is 0-2 this year?She hasn't improved as a 4yo, and is starting the same exact way she started 2009. That, plus whatever it was that Team RA screwed around with that didn't work out...trying to get her to relax...that didn't do her any favors either...

Other possibilities include an undisclosed injury she is working her way back from...you could speculate all day long, as many people have already done in many different threads here on this message board.

ghostyapper
05-04-2010, 07:33 PM
She hasn't improved as a 4yo, and is starting the same exact way she started 2009. That, plus whatever it was that Team RA screwed around with that didn't work out...trying to get her to relax...that didn't do her any favors either...

Other possibilities include an undisclosed injury she is working her way back from...you could speculate all day long, as many people have already done in many different threads here on this message board.

You left one out. She ran into 2 absolute dirt monster's that will take the division by storm this year and would be favored in any dirt race vs the slow Ms. 16-0. :D

johnhannibalsmith
05-04-2010, 07:36 PM
...If you believe that she will achieve more, then you're assuming all is going according to plan with her...

Why would that assumption necessarily follow that belief?

I think that very little has gone according to plan with her yet believe it is more likely than not that she will achieve more. She's run second twice, beaten less than a cumulative length.

It is disappointing that she actually isn't invincible after all, but I hardly believe that exposing her as not being invincible equates permanent regression and an inability to compete in the manner that we are accustomed to seeing her. She looked fairly mortal throughout the first half-dozen starts of her career.

Maybe she peaked and won't regain her form from last year, but I'm mystified by the mass certainty that she is perma-cooked after watching her two races this season.

ghostyapper
05-04-2010, 07:46 PM
is starting the same exact way she started 2009.

2009 start
under wraps
eased up

2010
outkicked
missed

PaceAdvantage
05-04-2010, 07:55 PM
2009 start
under wraps
eased up

2010
outkicked
missedI know..it's like the difference between facing Anabaa's Creation and Gio Ponti...go figure!

ghostyapper
05-04-2010, 08:05 PM
I know..it's like the difference between facing Anabaa's Creation and Gio Ponti...go figure!

Glad you brought this up. 2 foes at opposite ends of the spectrum but both looked similar in their showdowns. Yea keep using those trusty figures to evaluate her. :lol:

joanied
05-04-2010, 09:02 PM
Why would that assumption necessarily follow that belief?

I think that very little has gone according to plan with her yet believe it is more likely than not that she will achieve more. She's run second twice, beaten less than a cumulative length.

It is disappointing that she actually isn't invincible after all, but I hardly believe that exposing her as not being invincible equates permanent regression and an inability to compete in the manner that we are accustomed to seeing her. She looked fairly mortal throughout the first half-dozen starts of her career.

Maybe she peaked and won't regain her form from last year, but I'm mystified by the mass certainty that she is perma-cooked after watching her two races this season.

:ThmbUp: Well said. Especially that very little has gone according to plan...because Asmussen's plan was to change her... they still need to get that figure eight off her head...and, IMO, the best thing they could do for her is to get Calvin on her in the mornings...two weeks with him on her back everyday and we'd see a big change in her. IMO.

born2ride
05-04-2010, 09:27 PM
:ThmbUp: Well said. Especially that very little has gone according to plan...because Asmussen's plan was to change her... they still need to get that figure eight off her head...and, IMO, the best thing they could do for her is to get Calvin on her in the mornings...two weeks with him on her back everyday and we'd see a big change in her. IMO.

I agree completely. Nothing against Dominic, IMO Calvin knows significantly more about horses and how to get the best out of them. The figure 8 was put on at the same time they tried changing her, who knows what it may have done to her head. I also think she needs a bit of time to get used to her new body and added weight, especially now that they've stopped trying to change her.

PaceAdvantage
05-04-2010, 09:50 PM
Glad you brought this up. 2 foes at opposite ends of the spectrum but both looked similar in their showdowns.A great illustration of just how much synthetics can downgrade a horse like Gio Ponti. He's never really run well over the stuff, has he?

Thus, the claims of how truly tough the 2009 BC Classic was ring hollower with each and every flyby.

ghostyapper
05-04-2010, 10:00 PM
A great illustration of just how much synthetics can downgrade a horse like Gio Ponti. He's never really run well over the stuff, has he?

Thus, the claims of how truly tough the 2009 BC Classic was ring hollower with each and every flyby.

Never run well over the stuff? His highest career beyer came on "that stuff"

How will you recover from that left hook now? :lol:

horses4courses
05-04-2010, 10:07 PM
A great illustration of just how much synthetics can downgrade a horse like Gio Ponti. He's never really run well over the stuff, has he?

Thus, the claims of how truly tough the 2009 BC Classic was ring hollower with each and every flyby.

Or you can look at it another way.....
Winning four, or more, grade 1s in a row often takes alot out of a horse.
Horses can deteriorate after such exertions.
Some times they don't return to their best afterwards.
Only some are durable enough to keep winning, and winning, and winning.......

PaceAdvantage
05-04-2010, 10:10 PM
Never run well over the stuff? His highest career beyer came on "that stuff"

How will you recover from that left hook now? :lol:First off, I asked a question, I did not make a claim. I asked, you answered. I don't have the PPs in front of me for Gio Ponti...I don't recall him ever winning a major race over synthetics.

What race did he win earning this monster Beyer? Or was the BC Classic his best Beyer? If so, how did you left hook me?

I thought the claim was that Beyers really, really suck over synthetics. Now you're putting stock in them? That's quite the laugh...you're right...

Dahoss9698
05-04-2010, 10:15 PM
According to a trainer (a real one, not an internet trainer) the figure 8 really has no impact on performance. I'm paraphrasing, but Asmussen uses it on most of his horses and the real purpose of a figure 8 is for horses that flip their palate.

ghostyapper
05-04-2010, 10:16 PM
First off, I asked a question, I did not make a claim. I asked, you answered. I don't have the PPs in front of me for Gio Ponti...I don't recall him ever winning a major race over synthetics.

What race did he win earning this monster Beyer? Or was the BC Classic his best Beyer? If so, how did you left hook me?

I thought the claim was that Beyers really, really suck over synthetics. Now you're putting stock in them? That's quite the laugh...you're right...

I'm not the one putting all the stock in beyers, you are. Therefore from your own logic that you've created you must concede that Gio Ponti is better on synthetic than turf. Either that or the previous house you've been building over the last year just collapsed my friend.

Cratos
05-04-2010, 10:21 PM
Cant see RA winning another race this year, theres no chance Assmusen will let her take on the mighty Zenyatta thats just suicide :D

If miraculously, Rachel went off at 4-1 in her next start would you bet her?

horses4courses
05-04-2010, 10:26 PM
If miraculously, Rachel went off at 4-1 in her next start would you bet her?

Against Zenyatta, Quality Road, and a sizeable field of G1 caliber horses, 4-1 would be an underlay on RA.

Dahoss9698
05-04-2010, 10:26 PM
First off, I asked a question, I did not make a claim. I asked, you answered. I don't have the PPs in front of me for Gio Ponti...I don't recall him ever winning a major race over synthetics.

What race did he win earning this monster Beyer? Or was the BC Classic his best Beyer? If so, how did you left hook me?

I thought the claim was that Beyers really, really suck over synthetics. Now you're putting stock in them? That's quite the laugh...you're right...

He's won one race over synth, an off the turf grade 3 stake beating Medjool (running in claiming races in NY right now) and El Gato Malo. He was 5th in the Strub (losing to Blue Exit and Victory Pete) and was second in the BC earning his highest Beyer.

He's so much better on turf it's not even funny.

Tom
05-04-2010, 10:27 PM
A great illustration of just how much synthetics can downgrade a horse like Gio Ponti. He's never really run well over the stuff, has he?

Thus, the claims of how truly tough the 2009 BC Classic was ring hollower with each and every flyby.

Devil's advocate here...if synths are making horses look bad, then isn't Zennyatta really good for looking so much better on them race after race?

Dahoss9698
05-04-2010, 10:28 PM
Against Zenyatta, Quality Road, and a sizeable field of G1 caliber horses, 4-1 would be an underlay on RA.

Other than Zenyatta and Quality Road how many G1 caliber dirt horses are there?

ghostyapper
05-04-2010, 10:34 PM
Other than Zenyatta and Quality Road how many G1 caliber dirt horses are there?

Well certainly Zardana would make the list. I mean if she's good enough for Zenyatta's connections to duck her indirectly then she belongs on the list :D

Dahoss9698
05-04-2010, 10:44 PM
Well certainly Zardana would make the list. I mean if she's good enough for Zenyatta's connections to duck her indirectly then she belongs on the list :D

Still waiting for an original thought. Maybe post #1602.

ghostyapper
05-04-2010, 10:51 PM
What a let down. I thought you might actually address that genius opinion you had and how the results from friday affect it but you just replied with the same thing whenever you look bad. O well

Dahoss9698
05-04-2010, 10:55 PM
What a let down. I thought you might actually address that genius opinion you had and how the results from friday affect it but you just replied with the same thing whenever you look bad. O well

How does the results of Friday make my opinion any less valid? It doesn't. Zardana's performance on Friday has no impact on why she wasn't in the Apple Blossom.

But, for arguments sake, lets go over a few of your opinions. That's right, you never make any. You just regurgitate the same arguement you have been making since last summer. At this point I think even Zenyatta wishes you'd shut up already.

ghostyapper
05-04-2010, 10:57 PM
How does the results of Friday make my opinion any less valid? It doesn't. Zardana's performance on Friday has no impact on why she wasn't in the Apple Blossom.


Hmm you state that Zardana is so good on dirt that Zenyatta's connections purposely kept her out of the apple blossom out of fear that she would beat zenyatta. In Zardana's next DIRT race she runs up the track.

Yea your opinion is still fine :eek:

Dahoss9698
05-04-2010, 11:01 PM
Hmm you state that Zardana is so good on dirt that Zenyatta's connections purposely kept her out of the apple blossom out of fear that she would beat zenyatta. In Zardana's next DIRT race she runs up the track.

Yea your opinion is still fine :eek:

That is not what I said. We've been over this at least twice now. No matter how you want to spin it, that is not what I said. But, had Zardana won, would my opinion have been valid then? You would have been here saying how right I was?

Zenyatta wants you to stop already. She's embarrassed to have you as her PA representation. Who can blame her? :D

ghostyapper
05-04-2010, 11:04 PM
That is not what I said. We've been over this at least twice now. No matter how you want to spin it, that is not what I said. But, had Zardana won, would my opinion have been valid then? You would have been here saying how right I was?

And I guarantee had she won or looked impressive you and the cj's of the world would have been on here reminding us. But of course when she bombs, not a peep and it doesn't change the validity of your ridiculous opinion :rolleyes:

Dahoss9698
05-04-2010, 11:06 PM
And I guarantee had she won or looked impressive you and the cj's of the world would have been on here reminding us. But of course when she bombs, not a peep and it doesn't change the validity of your ridiculous opinion :rolleyes:

1605 and counting.

ghostyapper
05-04-2010, 11:12 PM
Hey PA

Can we possibly get a new emoticon of a turtle going into it's shell? I think that would save a certain poster of having to keep track of someone's post count this way they can just use the icon whenever the situation arises?

Dahoss9698
05-04-2010, 11:20 PM
Hey PA

Can we possibly get a new emoticon of a turtle going into it's shell? I think that would save a certain poster of having to keep track of someone's post count this way they can just use the icon whenever the situation arises?

I'm really curious, how come you never have any opinions before races? Are you afraid to offer any up?

You've been arguing about Rachel and Zenyatta since the summer of last year. Doesn't it ever get old? You aren't changing anyone's opinion and no one is changing yours. At least others offer up some sort of intelligent insight. You continue to serve up recycled arguements.

Have a pre race opinion. I dare ya.

Cratos
05-04-2010, 11:24 PM
Against Zenyatta, Quality Road, and a sizeable field of G1 caliber horses, 4-1 would be an underlay on RA.

I am a big Zenyatta fan, but I am a gambler and I don’t allow myself to be blinded by my emotions.

If I got 4-1 on Rachel in her next race and it has at 1 1/8 miles or shorter on a fast track I am going to have a few “wooden nickels” on her to win and it doesn’t matter if Zenyatta or Quality Road is in the race.

This game is about making money; not about falling in love.

PaceAdvantage
05-05-2010, 12:00 AM
And I guarantee had she won or looked impressive you and the cj's of the world would have been on here reminding us. But of course when she bombs, not a peep and it doesn't change the validity of your ridiculous opinion :rolleyes:How do you reconcile the fact that Rachel did not finish .75 lengths behind Zardana in the La Troienne? After all, things seem pretty black and white in your world. How do you wrap your brain around this one?

PaceAdvantage
05-05-2010, 12:18 AM
I'm not the one putting all the stock in beyers, you are. Therefore from your own logic that you've created you must concede that Gio Ponti is better on synthetic than turf. Either that or the previous house you've been building over the last year just collapsed my friend.I didn't bring up Beyers, you did. I didn't bring up speed figures just now, you did.

What I did was make the simple and correct observation that Gio Ponti is nowhere near as good on synths as he is on turf.

One race (speed figure) does not make a horse. Although I would make an exception for Zenyatta should she actually run a fast number on either synth or dirt one of these days (112 is average for a G1 runner...)

Rachel consistently ran better numbers than Zenyatta last year...you can throw out Rachel's top of 116 and Zenyatta's top of 112 and it becomes even more glaringly obvious.

Thus, I'm not going to put much stock into Gio Ponti's career high Beyer that came in a second place effort over a synth surface. It's one number among many.

Left hook deflected.

chickenhead
05-05-2010, 01:09 AM
A horse that can't run well over a surface, CAN"T RUN WELL OVER A SURFACE. A horse that has run well over a surface, CAN RUN WELL OVER A SURFACE.

which you can tell from the words themselves.

Gio Ponti ran just fine over the SA track last winter. He handled the track beautifully. That Gio Ponti didn't run back to his BC peak immediately, makes him like a lot of horses that run well in the BC.

Don't worry, that doesn't speak to whether Zenyatta can run on the dirt. It's ok. Gio Ponti can have run one of his best races on synth, and Zenyatta can still be a mediocre dirt horse. There is no contradiction.

DeanT
05-05-2010, 01:18 AM
2nd in the BC and 4th in the Dubai World Cup over Pro Ride and Tapeta, in a cross continental journey, beating over 20 top horses.

They don't put a Beyer figure on the purse check.

I wouldn't mind him in my barn.

Dahoss9698
05-05-2010, 01:16 PM
2nd in the BC and 4th in the Dubai World Cup over Pro Ride and Tapeta, in a cross continental journey, beating over 20 top horses.

They don't put a Beyer figure on the purse check.

I wouldn't mind him in my barn.

I love the "I wouldn't mind him in my barn line". Most of us would be happy with a barn full of 5 claimers. That isn't the point. Who is disparaging Gio Ponti? I think the point PA is trying to make is he is better on turf. Isn't he?

RockHardTen1985
05-05-2010, 01:51 PM
I love the "I wouldn't mind him in my barn line". Most of us would be happy with a barn full of 5 claimers. That isn't the point. Who is disparaging Gio Ponti? I think the point PA is trying to make is he is better on turf. Isn't he?


I have never been a Gio Ponti guy. I have actually lost a lot of money trying to beat him on turf. I dont think any logical person can argue that he is not a much better turf horse then synthetic horse. The numbers, the starts dont lie... How many Grade 1's on turf compared to 0 on poly. I dont have his pp's in front of me, but I think his biggest win on poly was a Grade 2 vs a very weak group. His BC run was decent, but I thought Ramon tripped him out and he was simply run down by a better animal.

hazzardm
05-05-2010, 01:54 PM
I think his only poly win was off the turf 8furlong Grade 3 Sir Beufort @ SA.

chickenhead
05-05-2010, 02:13 PM
I think the point PA is trying to make is he is better on turf. Isn't he?

You'd think that point would actually include an argument to back it up, from you or PA. He's better how? He runs faster? No. He what, exactly?

Having a higher win % on turf vs. synthetic doesn't actually mean he's better on turf, not when his Speed figure progression across both surfaces was like a straight line all through last year. He was the best US Turf horse. He wasn't the best US synthetic horse.

That doesn't mean he's worse on synthetics. Considering he ran a lifetime top in the BC, it means there was a horse or two better than him on synthetics.

What's your argument again? Ignore the great race, and focus on the Strub? Yeah, he's run shitty on the Turf before also. If you throw out his good Turf races, then he also must hate the Turf.

http://www.drf.com/bc/2009/pps/gioponti.pdf

Dahoss9698
05-05-2010, 02:45 PM
You'd think that point would actually include an argument to back it up, from you or PA. He's better how? He runs faster? No. He what, exactly?

Having a higher win % on turf vs. synthetic doesn't actually mean he's better on turf, not when his Speed figure progression across both surfaces was like a straight line all through last year. He was the best US Turf horse. He wasn't the best US synthetic horse.

That doesn't mean he's worse on synthetics. Considering he ran a lifetime top in the BC, it means there was a horse or two better than him on synthetics.

What's your argument again? Ignore the great race, and focus on the Strub? Yeah, he's run shitty on the Turf before also. If you throw out his good Turf races, then he also must hate the Turf.

http://www.drf.com/bc/2009/pps/gioponti.pdf

I don't put much stock into Beyers on turf or synth, so I'm not going there. I'm quite familiar with his pp's, but thank you for posting them. Since you posted them, how can you look at them and not think he's better on turf? I'm not exactly sure how you would like me to explain it.

Maybe it would be easier for you to explain why he isn't better on turf? Maybe you want me to include an IMO before I make a statement about horses, but I just figure that stuff is assumed.

gm10
05-05-2010, 02:53 PM
I don't put much stock into Beyers on turf or synth, so I'm not going there. I'm quite familiar with his pp's, but thank you for posting them. Since you posted them, how can you look at them and not think he's better on turf? I'm not exactly sure how you would like me to explain it.

Maybe it would be easier for you to explain why he isn't better on turf? Maybe you want me to include an IMO before I make a statement about horses, but I just figure that stuff is assumed.

I think it's very short-sighted to call him better on turf. To begin with, the turf competition isn't very big in the US, he's been beaten many times on the turf, has run very good numbers on the synthetic, and would have won the Classic if it hadn't been for lady Z.

IMO.

chickenhead
05-05-2010, 03:01 PM
Since you posted them, how can you look at them and not think he's better on turf? I'm not exactly sure how you would like me to explain it.

Maybe it would be easier for you to explain why he isn't better on turf? Maybe you want me to include an IMO before I make a statement about horses, but I just figure that stuff is assumed.

yeah, your opinion is what I'm asking you about, and what you just punted on actually trying to back up with any kind of argument.

Just because. Got it.

I don't think he's better on Turf, because I don't see evidence he's better on Turf. The two biggest races of his life were on synthetic and he ran well in them. Beyers, flawed as they may be when comparing Turf and Synthetic to Dirt, do a much better job comparing Turf and Synthetic to each other (since they have similar tendencies), if you have a better objective measure you're relying on, let me know.

A horse having a harder time winning the biggest purse races vs. smaller pursed races isn't really a measure of anything. Logically it would relate to the competition level. To say it's about something else actually does require an argument to back it up.

DeanT
05-05-2010, 03:02 PM
I love the "I wouldn't mind him in my barn line". Most of us would be happy with a barn full of 5 claimers. That isn't the point. Who is disparaging Gio Ponti? I think the point PA is trying to make is he is better on turf. Isn't he?

I dont know about PA. I am just commenting that Gio Ponti was looked at by a lot of people as a HOY type horse last year in the summer, but ever since he lost to Zenyatta in the classic, some people seem to want to cut him up. He's a very good horse on both surfaces.

If Zenyatta is not alive he wins five grade ones last year, including the BC classic on synth for a remarkable dual surface campaign. He gets some HOY votes and deserves them. A horse who can win the BC on synth is clearly a good synth horse. That's about all I am saying. Just because he lost to Zenyatta should not mean anything to anyone. About 115 other horses have.

Dahoss9698
05-05-2010, 03:15 PM
yeah, your opinion is what I'm asking you about, and what you just punted on actually trying to back up with any kind of argument.

Just because. Got it.

I don't think he's better on Turf, because I don't see evidence he's better on Turf. The two biggest races of his life were on synthetic and he ran well in them. Beyers, flawed as they may be when comparing Turf and Synthetic to Dirt, do a much better job comparing Turf and Synthetic to each other (since they have similar tendencies), if you have a better objective measure you're relying on, let me know.

A horse having a harder time winning the biggest purse races vs. smaller pursed races isn't really a measure of anything. Logically it would relate to the competition level. To say it's about something else actually does require an argument to back it up.

I see. You want to use Beyers when the help your arguement, but ignore them when they don't. What was the Beyer for the Dubai race, since you think it was his second best race?

So essentially your arguement is because Gio Ponti ran a 110 in the BC he's better on synth? I know you have no Beyer for the Dubai race, so you are going by one race.

Good luck with that.

Dahoss9698
05-05-2010, 03:19 PM
I dont know about PA. I am just commenting that Gio Ponti was looked at by a lot of people as a HOY type horse last year in the summer, but ever since he lost to Zenyatta in the classic, some people seem to want to cut him up. He's a very good horse on both surfaces.

If Zenyatta is not alive he wins five grade ones last year, including the BC classic on synth for a remarkable dual surface campaign. He gets some HOY votes and deserves them. A horse who can win the BC on synth is clearly a good synth horse. That's about all I am saying. Just because he lost to Zenyatta should not mean anything to anyone. About 115 other horses have.

I don't think saying he is a better horse on turf is cutting him up. He's a very good horse.

chickenhead
05-05-2010, 03:26 PM
I see. You want to use Beyers when the help your arguement, but ignore them when they don't. What was the Beyer for the Dubai race, since you think it was his second best race?

So essentially your arguement is because Gio Ponti ran a 110 in the BC he's better on synth? I know you have no Beyer for the Dubai race, so you are going by one race.

Good luck with that.

I use Beyers all the time, I love speed figures. I don't think turf and synth translate straight across to dirt because they don't. But I use Speed and Pace Figures when handicapping all surfaces. You can search this message board, CJ explains some of the differences with Turf, synth, and dirt speed figures, many times very well. I've found this to be true in my experience.

And I didn't actually say Dubai was his second "best race", but it was his "biggest" race in terms of purse. I think he ran just about how he has run in many of his Turf races.

Let me simplify this, since you still are unable to put forth an opinion of your own. We'll make it real simple.

If he was equally as good on turf and synthetic -- I know its laughable, and he obviously is not -- what exactly would have been different about his BC race? Break it down for me. Explain it to me. Educate me. He's not, right, and he's sooooo not that it's obvious. So point out the obvious, please.

What exactly would you have seen in that BC race that would have made you think it was just as good as any of his turf races The tipoff. It's obvious, I know, but humor me.

Cardus
05-05-2010, 03:56 PM
I don't see why four consecutive wins in Grade 1 races -- the four of which are prestigious races -- do not trump Gio Ponti's second and fourth place finishes in the Breeders' Cup Classic and the Dubai World Cup.

It is impressive, also, that Gio Ponti won those turf races between 1M and 1 1/4M. That's not usual at the Grade 1 level.

Dahoss9698
05-05-2010, 03:59 PM
I use Beyers all the time, I love speed figures. I don't think turf and synth translate straight across to dirt because they don't. But I use Speed and Pace Figures when handicapping all surfaces. You can search this message board, CJ explains some of the differences with Turf, synth, and dirt speed figures, many times very well. I've found this to be true in my experience.

And I didn't actually say Dubai was his second "best race", but it was his "biggest" race in terms of purse. I think he ran just about how he has run in many of his Turf races.

Let me simplify this, since you still are unable to put forth an opinion of your own. We'll make it real simple.

If he was equally as good on turf and synthetic -- I know its laughable, and he obviously is not -- what exactly would have been different about his BC race? Break it down for me. Explain it to me. Educate me. He's not, right, and he's sooooo not that it's obvious. So point out the obvious, please.

What exactly would you have seen in that BC race that would have made you think it was just as good as any of his turf races The tipoff. It's obvious, I know, but humor me.

Yes, I am unable to put forth an opinion of my own. This discussion arose because of an opinion I put forth. Sometimes the simple things are harder to explain than the complex ones.

You posted (some of) his pp's. He's run numerous strong races on turf. He's run one strong race on synth. I don't consider his Dubai race to be one of his better efforts. I think in his BC race he tripped out, so to speak in a race that fell apart late. He spent a majority of his time on a rail that had been playing well for two days. Don't get me wrong, it was a very good effort but IMO it was as good as he has run on grass, not better.

His other synth efforts have not been like that. He was hardly impressive in winning the Sir Beaufort and was pretty ordinary in the Strub, despite getting the same figure for both races.

Now, if you want to argue that he improved since then, I can buy that. I don't necessarily think it means he's as good on synth than turf, but it's certainly a fair arguement. In my opinion he has run better on grass more often because he prefers it.

That doesn't mean he isn't capable of running a strong race on synth. It just means in the long run, I think his better races were and will be on grass. Unfortunately we don't have more syth races to go on, so it ultimately becomes an opinion thing.

You seem to think because he ran one strong race on synth it means he's as good. The way I look at it he's run 1 strong and 2 ordinary (I'm excluding the Dubai race, because I don't think either one of us can decipher it either way). His record is much better on grass.

chickenhead
05-05-2010, 04:26 PM
I think it would be hard to argue that he hasn't improved during his career -- it's the only logical conclusion from his PPs. Not to recreate them all, but prior to his SB and Strub, his grass record was:

1-1 in G3 events
1-3 in G2 events
0-1 in G1 events ( 7th beaten 2.5, with a bad trip)

He followed that Grade 1 defeat by immediately going to synth:

1-1 in G3
0-1 in G2 (5th beaten 1.5)

There isn't something glaringly out of line with that. Beyer figures, for whatever they're worth, identical. He's a G2/G3 horse on both surfaces up to this point in his career. He has less synth races, a smaller sample, but there isn't a lot there to say he's any worse on synth. Not at all.

He then moves up and wins 4 straight Grade 1 races on the Turf. Why is he now running better on Turf? I don't know, but he obviously is. Surprising bettors along the way as he's not the favorite in either of the first two.

Neither his BC Classic or his prior 4 starts on Turf bear much resemblance to any of his earlier performances, on either surface. But they bear a whole lot of resemblance to each other.

Dahoss9698
05-05-2010, 04:40 PM
I think it would be hard to argue that he hasn't improved during his career -- it's the only logical conclusion from his PPs. Not to recreate them all, but prior to his SB and Strub, his grass record was:

1-1 in G3 events
1-3 in G2 events
0-1 in G1 events ( 7th beaten 2.5)

He followed that Grade 1 defeat by immediately going to synth:

1-1 in G3
0-1 in G2 (5th beaten 1.5)

There isn't something glaringly out of line with that. Beyer figures, for whatever they're worth, identical. He's a G2/G3 horse on both surfaces up to this point in his career.

He then moves up and wins 4 straight Grade 1 races on the Turf. Why is he now running better on Turf? I don't know, but he's obviously is. Surprising bettors along the way as he's not the favorite in either of the first two.

Neither his BC Classic or his prior 4 starts on Turf bear much resemblance to his prior performances, on either surface. But they bear a whole lot of resemblance to each other.

There is a bit more to it than that though. In the Hollywood derby he had some trouble that definitely affected his order of finish. He was blocked for essentially the entire stretch. I'm not saying he wins if he gets out, but it is worth watching the replay. He ran a lot better than the order of finish indicates. Also, while he was 1 for 3 in grade 2 events, he was beat a little more than a length combined in both races.

This is just a guess, but he has been a horse who seems most effective when making the last move in races. I'm wondering if the way he has been ridden is what has made him better. In races where he is allowed to lope along at the back early and make the last run seems best. When he tries to engage too early he seems to have trouble finishing.

Either way, he's a really neat horse and I like him a lot. Like I said to Dean, I'm not trying to cut him down by saying he's better on one surface over another. Just an opinion.

chickenhead
05-05-2010, 04:54 PM
yes I actually edited my post to mention that trouble because its only fair, you caught me in between. But I think the point still stands. If you blurred out the surfaces in his PPs, it would never even occure to anyone which races are turf, and which are synth. There is really nothing obvious about it.

If anything they would think his last 5 races of 09 were run on one surface that he really liked, and all the rest of his career on another.

bisket
05-05-2010, 05:17 PM
According to a trainer (a real one, not an internet trainer) the figure 8 really has no impact on performance. I'm paraphrasing, but Asmussen uses it on most of his horses and the real purpose of a figure 8 is for horses that flip their palate.
actually this would explain everything if she in fact flipped her palate. out of fear she may never exert herself again, and would explain why she's losing by small margins when i know she has the ability and should be fit enough to win. in both of her races i truly don't think she gave her all. although the fig 8 does give the rider a great amount of control considering her method of running. so they could be using for other reasons then the palate.

johnhannibalsmith
05-05-2010, 05:23 PM
... out of fear she may never exert herself again, and would explain why she's losing by small margins when i know she has the ability and should be fit enough to win. in both of her races i truly don't think she gave her all...

I think that there may be quite a bit of reality found in this particular train of thought, though not necessarily in the context you offered it.

Dahoss9698
05-05-2010, 05:27 PM
actually this would explain everything if she in fact flipped her palate. out of fear she may never exert herself again, and would explain why she's losing by small margins when i know she has the ability and should be fit enough to win. in both of her races i truly don't think she gave her all. although the fig 8 does give the rider a great amount of control considering her method of running. so they could be using for other reasons then the palate.

The theory was Asmussen put the figure 8 on in case she flipped because they were going to try and rein her in early. More of a precationary thing than anything else.

I don't necessarily disagree that she might not be giving her all. She might have lost her edge. It's one of the reasons I'd like to see them try another rider. A simple rider change has woken up many horses.

bisket
05-05-2010, 05:46 PM
The theory was Asmussen put the figure 8 on in case she flipped because they were going to try and rein her in early. More of a precationary thing than anything else.

I don't necessarily disagree that she might not be giving her all. She might have lost her edge. It's one of the reasons I'd like to see them try another rider. A simple rider change has woken up many horses.
you don't use it just in case.... the other part of your post makes sense though, and is basically what everyone has been saying that the "control" is what she's acting negatively to. they use the fig 8 for horses that have recently flipped their pallet and had surgical procedure to correct the problem. the idea is to prevent the horse from exerting themselves and it happening again while training the horse. the only reason to use it in a race is to try and rate her. which is what everyone has been saying for the previous few months. you mean you are finally enlightened?

Dahoss9698
05-05-2010, 05:57 PM
you don't use it just in case.... the other part of your post makes sense though, and is basically what everyone has been saying that the "control" is what she's acting negatively to. they use the fig 8 for horses that have recently flipped their pallet and had surgical procedure to correct the problem. the idea is to prevent the horse from exerting themselves and it happening again while training the horse. the only reason to use it in a race is to try and rate her. which is what everyone has been saying for the previous few months. you mean you are finally enlightened?

Well the trainer that said it seems to think so. I'll defer to his knowledge over yours.

Asmussen uses it on most of his horses. So by your line of thinking most of his horses have recently flipped or they are trying to rate most of their horses. Thanks for the laugh.

WinterTriangle
05-06-2010, 04:00 AM
Best recipe for getting a great horse: 1) well bred 2)well trained 3) well managed.

I guess all questions about Rachel depends on how you think each of these categories is being carried out.

I can't handicap that at this point, except #1. Since I don't work with Rachel on a day-in, day-out basis.

I don't know *who* Rachel is this year, what her mind-set is, what they are trying to accomplish and/or improve.

I seriously doubt there are any *issues* that on-lookers can uncover that the trainer isn't already more deeply aware of.

It is fun to conjecture, though.