View Full Version : Help needed from someone with large data base!
so.cal.fan
07-21-2003, 01:29 PM
Would any of you math whiz/computer guys help me answer a question?
I would like to know a year's worth of average payoffs for trifectas in two different groups:
12 horse fields
8 horse fields
A group of us in So. Calif. are "guessing" there is a 75% drop to match the 75% drop in possible combinations between a 12 horse field and an 8 horse field.
Thank you in advance, if there is anyone out there who can answer question.
so.cal.fan:)
GameTheory
07-21-2003, 04:47 PM
8 horse fields: 5058 races, avg payoff: $459.75
12 horse fields: 1538 races (same period), avg payoff: $1916.38
This isn't a year's worth -- I just let in run for a minute till I had a lot of races (all tracks).
andicap
07-21-2003, 04:52 PM
Whoa! 76% drop.
Great guess, so. cal.......
hope your odds lines are nearly as prescient.
BillW
07-21-2003, 05:26 PM
Originally posted by GameTheory
8 horse fields: 5058 races, avg payoff: $459.75
12 horse fields: 1538 races (same period), avg payoff: $1916.38
This isn't a year's worth -- I just let in run for a minute till I had a lot of races (all tracks).
Kinda sheds some light on why the Pk-6 has caught on so well on the west coast, and less so everywhere else.
Bill
MV McKee
07-21-2003, 07:04 PM
SoCal Major Only (DmR, Hol, SA) Fpx Excluded
4Oct00 - 22Feb03
Please Note: Results are by betting interests, not field size
Trifecta
BetInterests AvgTriPayoff #ofRaces
4 $16.13 11
5 $42.26 227
6 $80.85 793
7 $143.82 923
8 $263.20 958
9 $356.72 727
10 $506.57 559
11 $645.51 323
12 $1,211.07 292
13 $332.36 7
14 $908.93 4
so.cal.fan
07-21-2003, 10:50 PM
Thanks you guys!
pmd62ndst
07-22-2003, 04:29 PM
Here are my numbers for all tracks from 2/15/2003 to 7/21/2003:
Starters Races Trifecta $/Race
5 28 35.41
6 1506 78.29
7 3552 121.00
8 4321 185.98
9 3371 273.49
10 4083 431.04
11 1406 517.18
12 1875 628.27
13 411 494.07
14 1334 506.73
>=15 272 736.37
Here are numbers from Santa Anita and Hollywood Park, specifically:
Starters Races Trifecta $/Race
6 148 70.81
7 153 105.75
8 179 175.46
9 142 296.28
10 95 365.00
11 58 526.32
12 56 510.64
13 24 493.62
14 50 559.71
The only problem here is that the number of starters was calculated before the race, and doesn't include scratches.
GameTheory
07-22-2003, 06:07 PM
I should have pointed out that my numbers were $2 payoffs (I normalize all payoffs for any wager to $2) -- I suspect many people have $1 payoffs in their db for the tri...
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