Derby by Yum Brands : Theee strangest Morning Line I have evvaaah seen !

[BeatTheChalk]

Is the Line Maker telling to tell us something ? Any comments ? :bang:

[horses4courses]

Is the Line Maker telling to tell us something ? Any comments ? :bang:

Not much....except for the fact that he's not the sharpest guy around.
The line totals well over 130% (too high), there are quite a few underlays,
and if those 2 favorites get bet to those odds in those questionable posts, Mike Battaglia is sharper than I give him credit for......

[GaryG]

If Ice Box and DMC go off at 10-1 I will be pleasantly surprised. I see a 5-1 fav with many uner 8-1.

[strapper]

At first glance the line did seem odd to me. Only two horses under 10-1. I've never, never seen a more wide open Derby than this. Also, have my doubts about the overall quality of the field. Sorry, no Triple Crown winner will emerge from this bunch.

[Bruddah]

At first glance the line did seem odd to me. Only two horses under 10-1. I've never, never seen a more wide open Derby than this. Also, have my doubts about the overall quality of the field. Sorry, no Triple Crown winner will emerge from this bunch.

This will be a huge paying Derby. I am almost 100% sure the two Favorites won't make the top three. (JMHO) ;)

[Ejmenz]

The best betting race of every year.

[ddog]

Not much....except for the fact that he's not the sharpest guy around.
The line totals well over 130% (too high), there are quite a few underlays,
and if those 2 favorites get bet to those odds in those questionable posts, Mike Battaglia is sharper than I give him credit for......


He doesn't adjust for posts. Doesn't matter. With the field and possible weather I would say it may be, as normal one of the worst betting races of the year.

I can assure you the payouts are not large because everyone hits them. :D

I will spend 5-10 minutes and toss in a couple of hundred, maybe and let it go at that.

Better fish fry of an everyday nature to occupy the time.

[horses4courses]

He doesn't adjust for posts. Doesn't matter.

I've heard MB say that in the past.
I disagree with it, and here's why....
The object of a M/L is to predict how the betting public will wager on the race.

You can't tell me that the dollar figure bet on those 2 favorites won't be reduced due to their draws. Those posts are a potential problem for those horses, and they will be bet accordingly.

Therefore, you can take Mr. Battaglia's M/L with a grain of salt.
With that type of attitude, it's easy to see that he doesn't take his job very seriously any more.

[ManeMediaMogul]

Lookin At Lucky has the standout form in the race. He will go favored and probably not much more than 4-1 and he will probably win if he handles the mud.

Sidney's Candy is underlayed on the line, not by virtue of his post, which is ideal for a speed horse, but by virtue of the pace scenario, which doesn't favor him in the least.

It is highly unlikely that Ice Box will be single digits. Awesome Act has much better form than him, will be in front of him for much if not all of the race and is way more likely to be a single-digit contender.

[dartman51]

#12 CONVEYANCE M/L 12-1

other contenders

#5 LINE OF DAVID
#7 AMERICAN LION
#1 LOOKIN AT LUCKY
#16 AWESOME ACT
#10 PADDY O'PRADO


;)

[ddog]

I've heard MB say that in the past.
I disagree with it, and here's why....
The object of a M/L is to predict how the betting public will wager on the race.

You can't tell me that the dollar figure bet on those 2 favorites won't be reduced due to their draws. Those posts are a potential problem for those horses, and they will be bet accordingly.

Therefore, you can take Mr. Battaglia's M/L with a grain of salt.
With that type of attitude, it's easy to see that he doesn't take his job very seriously any more.

Can't argue , really, but what the heck, I think the "NAME" horses from the name connections will always be bet, posts just can't matter that much in a 20 horse field to the avg joe and there is a lot more avg joe money in these pools than normal.

I never take MB ml with other than a bucket of salt for any race! ;)

[Valuist]

I would not be shocked if Devil May Care went off as the favorite.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would not be shocked if Devil May Care went off as the favorite.That would shock me...would shock me even more if she runs well...I think she might be a massive underlay, and I don't like her much at all.