for those into dosage numbers...............

[motorhead]

if my memory serves correctly, there have been only 2 winners with less than 16 dosage points (adding up the 5 categories) since 1940

[nijinski]

The only thing I check is the DI , which seems with just a few exceptions hold
true that most horses over 4.00 not winning this.
I noticed Mission Impazible had the high index.

[WinterTriangle]

The only thing I check is the DI , which seems with just a few exceptions hold true that most horses over 4.00 not winning this.
I noticed Mission Impazible had the high index.


Actually, what Dr. Roman's charts do show is an *expected* increasing distance with decreasing DI or CD.

Most have noticed since around 1968 that higher dosage figures are becoming the trend.

This could statistically relate to lower quality horses running in the Derby nowadays.

[LemonSoupKid]

Statistics, like anything else, have to be understood properly in how they are collected and what they mean. Many simpletons have dismissed Dosage precisely because they say that it is "never right."

The question is, "What is it attempting to show us?" (What question does it ask or is it trying to answer?) Then,

"What does it actually show us?"

Pay attention because [mentally] lazy people don't get it:

It shows us that Classic entrants with low dosages DO NOT have historically outstanding performances. It does not say that a given horse can't win. It does say, statistically, that if a horse has a "poor" dosage profile for classic distances, he WILL NOT have an impressive performance, historically.

If you look at the horses that "showed that Dosage is BS" you'll see that nearly every single one of these horses did not run fast in the race that they won. Period.

Because you won doesn't mean others showed up that day.

By far the best example of this was Giacomo, who after winning the 2005 Derby in 2:02.75, was beaten a combined ~27 lengths in the next two races. Closing Argument, 2nd, was never heard from again.

I still don't know why Afleet Alex didn't have it that day; the Triple Crown was lost right there, unfortunately. But that's what makes it so hard ... sometimes it's just not your day.

LSK