Niko
04-28-2010, 11:37 PM
I made this available two years ago. To date it’s picked the Kentucky Derby winner in 8 of the last 14 years using Brisnet speed ratings. There have also been plenty of seconds and a couple cold exactas. I use it as a guide.
Of course it hasn't won the last two years but good horse for exotics. It's been more difficult to use speed figures with all the Poly horses shipping out and running well.
Two years ago Eight Belles was tops by far on Beyers. Last year I had Musket Man who gave me thrill until what's it's name won. :(
Pioneer of the Nile and Regal Ransom (with Euro conversion) were tops on Beyer.
Kentucky Deby Betting System (http://www.horse-race-betting-advice.com/kentucky-derby-betting-system.html)
Let’s look at the Kentucky Derby Betting Systems Rules;
Step 1; Circle each horses second best speed rating in its past performances.
Why: We’re not looking for a horse that has only run 1 competitive race. We want a horse with a good competitive foundation that’s run 2 competitive races. The Kentucky
Derby is a very demanding race and rarely can a horse win it without at least 2 strong efforts prior to the race.
Step 2; Rank the horses from best to worst based on their second best speed rating that you found in step 1.
Step 3: Eliminate any horse than has not raced in the last 45 days. In most past performances you can quickly spot this by a line after its last race.
Why; The Kentucky Derby is a brutal race for young horses. They’re facing the toughest field of competitors they’ve ever faced at a distance that’s longer than they’ve ever run.
They need a recent race to have the proper conditioning base.
Step 4: Eliminate any horse that has not run one its top 2 speed ratings in its last 2 races.
I personally use the last race only unless it was run on a different surface, run on an off track, the horse encountered a lot of trouble in the race or the horse ran its best early or late pace fractions by a substantial margin.
Why; A horse needs to be in top form to win the Kentucky Derby.
Step 5: Eliminate any horse that has run less than 2 races prior to December of the previous year as a 2 year old.
Why; Maturity has a lot to do with winning the Kentucky Derby. If a horse has not matured enough at the age of 2 to race a couple times before December, it’s unlikely the horse will mature quick enough to win the Kentucky Derby in May. Fusaichi Pegasus and Big Brown are the only exceptions I know of to this rule.
Step 6; Your contenders are the top 2 horses left and those within 1 point (1/2 length) of the second ranked horse if there are less than 3. So if the top horse has a speed rating of 105
and the next best horse has a speed rating of 100, any horse that has a rating of 99 or higher would qualify.
Why; There’s a lot of variance in making speed figures. If a horse is rated within a point we don’t want to throw it out. That’s too close of a call.
Step 7: If there are only 2 horses left, those are your win bets. If there are more than two horses left, bet the horses with the with the highest speed figure last race. If still tied bet the horse with the highest speed figure in their past performance.
If you’re intent on betting 1 horse I’d bet on the contending horse from rule 5 going off at the longest odds. This has been the most profitable. But you’ll miss some winners doing
it that way.
Step 8: If there are 4 or more E horses in the race, eliminate any E horse contender as your win bet.
Step 9: The remaining horse(s) should be bet to win.
In years past I ignored meaningless statistics that would have eliminated winning Kentucky Derby Bets like Funny Cide (gelding) and Barbaroo (more than 4 weeks rest). I’ll ignore another one this year. The fact that trainer Todd Pletcher is 0-24 in the Derby.
After the scratch Conveyance and Devil May Care are the top 2 rated horses. Conveyance is an automatic toss out due the horses pure front running style and the number of early speed horses in the race. That leaves Devil May Care as the top choice.
I haven't seen the Beyer figs yet but Dublin was the top choice before Devil May Care was entered. Eight Belles was the top qualifier according to Beyer two years ago.
Of course it hasn't won the last two years but good horse for exotics. It's been more difficult to use speed figures with all the Poly horses shipping out and running well.
Two years ago Eight Belles was tops by far on Beyers. Last year I had Musket Man who gave me thrill until what's it's name won. :(
Pioneer of the Nile and Regal Ransom (with Euro conversion) were tops on Beyer.
Kentucky Deby Betting System (http://www.horse-race-betting-advice.com/kentucky-derby-betting-system.html)
Let’s look at the Kentucky Derby Betting Systems Rules;
Step 1; Circle each horses second best speed rating in its past performances.
Why: We’re not looking for a horse that has only run 1 competitive race. We want a horse with a good competitive foundation that’s run 2 competitive races. The Kentucky
Derby is a very demanding race and rarely can a horse win it without at least 2 strong efforts prior to the race.
Step 2; Rank the horses from best to worst based on their second best speed rating that you found in step 1.
Step 3: Eliminate any horse than has not raced in the last 45 days. In most past performances you can quickly spot this by a line after its last race.
Why; The Kentucky Derby is a brutal race for young horses. They’re facing the toughest field of competitors they’ve ever faced at a distance that’s longer than they’ve ever run.
They need a recent race to have the proper conditioning base.
Step 4: Eliminate any horse that has not run one its top 2 speed ratings in its last 2 races.
I personally use the last race only unless it was run on a different surface, run on an off track, the horse encountered a lot of trouble in the race or the horse ran its best early or late pace fractions by a substantial margin.
Why; A horse needs to be in top form to win the Kentucky Derby.
Step 5: Eliminate any horse that has run less than 2 races prior to December of the previous year as a 2 year old.
Why; Maturity has a lot to do with winning the Kentucky Derby. If a horse has not matured enough at the age of 2 to race a couple times before December, it’s unlikely the horse will mature quick enough to win the Kentucky Derby in May. Fusaichi Pegasus and Big Brown are the only exceptions I know of to this rule.
Step 6; Your contenders are the top 2 horses left and those within 1 point (1/2 length) of the second ranked horse if there are less than 3. So if the top horse has a speed rating of 105
and the next best horse has a speed rating of 100, any horse that has a rating of 99 or higher would qualify.
Why; There’s a lot of variance in making speed figures. If a horse is rated within a point we don’t want to throw it out. That’s too close of a call.
Step 7: If there are only 2 horses left, those are your win bets. If there are more than two horses left, bet the horses with the with the highest speed figure last race. If still tied bet the horse with the highest speed figure in their past performance.
If you’re intent on betting 1 horse I’d bet on the contending horse from rule 5 going off at the longest odds. This has been the most profitable. But you’ll miss some winners doing
it that way.
Step 8: If there are 4 or more E horses in the race, eliminate any E horse contender as your win bet.
Step 9: The remaining horse(s) should be bet to win.
In years past I ignored meaningless statistics that would have eliminated winning Kentucky Derby Bets like Funny Cide (gelding) and Barbaroo (more than 4 weeks rest). I’ll ignore another one this year. The fact that trainer Todd Pletcher is 0-24 in the Derby.
After the scratch Conveyance and Devil May Care are the top 2 rated horses. Conveyance is an automatic toss out due the horses pure front running style and the number of early speed horses in the race. That leaves Devil May Care as the top choice.
I haven't seen the Beyer figs yet but Dublin was the top choice before Devil May Care was entered. Eight Belles was the top qualifier according to Beyer two years ago.