Jerry Bailey just gave me his derby pick (in the elevator)

[Zippy Chippy]

Elevator door open. Jerry Bailey is standing in there alone. The following conversation happens.

Zippy: hi Jerry. I'm a huge fan. From Boston this is my 1st Derby.
JERRY: nice to meet you. Who do u like?
Zippy: I actually like lookin at lucky. You?
JERRY: I like him too but its a tough post. If he can't hustle out he might be in trouble. The horse that I love is Sydney's Candy!
ZIPPY: HE has a tough post too.the #20.
Jerry: No. That is actually the perfect post for him.

We say bye and I stare uncomfortably long at 1 of my idols.

[cj]

Wow creepy post, and not just because Bailey is lost on post positions.

[Zippy Chippy]

Wow creepy post, and not just because Bailey is lost on post positions.

Ha. I was belly laughing posting it

[Trotman]

I have been in the the walking ring at Belmont meeting Jerry Bailey for the first time who was riding my buddy's horse that Frankel trained and nada. Even after maybe the 20th time and I still never got boo from Jerry nor a handshake. This meeting right out of the elevator and him gushing this info.
OK

[cj]

There is no evidence to back up the belief that outside posts are better than inside posts in the Derby. You can, and do, get bad trips from all posts because of field size. That doesn't mean the 20 is somehow an advantage over the 1. It defies all logic.

[Zippy Chippy]

I have been in the the walking ring at Belmont meeting Jerry Bailey for the first time who was riding my buddy's horse that Frankel trained and nada. Even after maybe the 20th time and I still never got boo from Jerry nor a handshake. This meeting right out of the elevator and him gushing this info.
OK

Wow. Honest to God that is exactly how it went. I just hung up from my Gf telling her how nice of a Guy he was

[Skanoochies]

There is no evidence to back up the belief that outside posts are better than inside posts in the Derby. You can, and do, get bad trips from all posts because of field size. That doesn't mean the 20 is somehow an advantage over the 1. It defies all logic.
Great post.
The one hole isn`t tied with the five hole for most wins for nothing. How many times has the one hole had horses in it that you couldn`t see with a telescope (handicapping ) anyway?

Anyone have stats on winning from the first gate as opposed to the second gate? I immagine the odds are heavily stacked to the first fourteen slots.

Good luck whoever you bet. :ThmbUp:

[LottaKash]

My step-son who lives next door, is married to a girl that once lived in Hialeah, FL., and she dated JB for a time......He is a DB.... He is so full of himself...

best

[Zippy Chippy]

My step-son who lives next door, is married to a girl that once lived in Hialeah, FL., and she dated JB for a time......He is a DB.... He is so full of himself...

best

The funny thing is. I shook his hand. Elevator opened. He walk towards doors. We were done saying hi and he actually turned around and asked me who I liked. Looks like I caught him on a really good day! He could have gotten off easy!

[pandy]

Post 1 is okay if your horse has speed and is planning on leaving, post 20 is without doubt a terrible post. Big Brown was awesome and on steroids when he raced 5 wide throughout and won from post 20 but very few horses could have won off that trip. I'm sure Baffert will try to tell Gomez how to ride but what could you possibly tell him? If they want to race off the pace, all Gomez can do is try to find room somewhere. Unless of course they try leaving.

[Sekrah]

I bet you would get that answer from almost every jockey on the planet. They all love outside posts. They are all gutless wonders (except for Calvin Borel). They would rather run wide and lose than save ground and and have to negotiate traffic jams.

[Sekrah]

Post 1 is okay if your horse has speed and is planning on leaving, post 20 is without doubt a terrible post. Big Brown was awesome and on steroids when he raced 5 wide throughout and won from post 20 but very few horses could have won off that trip. I'm sure Baffert will try to tell Gomez how to ride but what could you possibly tell him? If they want to race off the pace, all Gomez can do is try to find room somewhere. Unless of course they try leaving.


If I'm Baffert I'm telling Gomez to sit right behind Calvin and follow him all the way around the track until the stretch drive. By all accounts I've read Pletcher and Borel are planning on sitting Super Saver off the pace, on the rail.

[Niko]

Great post.
The one hole isn`t tied with the five hole for most wins for nothing. How many times has the one hole had horses in it that you couldn`t see with a telescope (handicapping ) anyway?

Anyone have stats on winning from the first gate as opposed to the second gate? I immagine the odds are heavily stacked to the first fourteen slots.

Good luck whoever you bet. :ThmbUp:

I don't have the stats but you have to separate the fields of 12 (14?) or less from the bigger fields and then take odds into account.

[sonnyp]

i've never met bailey but he always seemed like an arrogant asshole from a distance. have a couple buddies who work for city of saratoga where bailey bought a home a few years back. they say he's constantly on the phone whining and bitching about his property and their neglect of "the city's most prominent resident".

then he pulled that bullsit in the belmont vs. smarty jones and i was convinced he had NO CLASS.


i was sitting at the bar at sergio's by myself with an empty seat on each side. an older couple walk in and are obviously looking to have a drink at the bar before they have dinner. i offer to move over to accommodate them and we strike up a conversation. it was on the friday nite before the whitney which had a 5 horse field that year. turns out this guy had been bailey's agent for years and bailey fired him at which point he picked up prado. told me flat out in terms of being a gentleman and overall good guy, it wasn't even close. bailey had done him a huge favor but hitting him with the pink slip.

bye the way, the guy (forgot his name) told me prado was riding the longshot in the next day's whitney. the horse had never raced in n.y. prior to this. he said if it rained a little overnite as was forcast and the track had some moisture in it, he thought they would have a great chance to win.

it rained and prado and the horse won the whitney paying, i believe $14 OR $16. the horse went on to do big things. his name ? roses in may

[badcompany]

Did he autograph your bobblehead?


http://wongshoppe.com/shopping/images/Bobblehead%20Jerry%20Bailey.jpg

[Buckeye]

yeah, but at least Cigar tried to teach his bald head a thing or two about humility. Nice ride on Grindstone though. :)

[Vinnie]

Who has more forehead, Jerry Bailey or the Great Gazoo from the Flintstones?

"You're all a bunch of dim dims." :eek:

[Cadillakin]

There is no evidence to back up the belief that outside posts are better than inside posts in the Derby. You can, and do, get bad trips from all posts because of field size. That doesn't mean the 20 is somehow an advantage over the 1. It defies all logic.
A horse with LAL's style, a presser or mid-packer, is better suited to break from the middle or outside and drop in behind the speed to save ground - or avoid mud kicking back - at his riders discretion. This can all be done very smoothly, without asking the horse unnecessarily to expend energy.. An inside draw forces him to to run for position so he doesn't get trapped behind-non-contenders, or take too much dirt/mud in the face. A good horse needs to run at certain points to maintain a contending position.. Running outside the speed is helpful in that regard, particularly in the mud.

Further, an outside post is generally very suitable for the long run at Churchill for a horse like Sidney.. as it was for Big Brown. He can break - and use his natural speed - all the while, clocking those to his inside.. and either go on to set or force the pace, or alternatively, rate just to the outside and behind Conveyance and the other developing speed.. If he were drawn inside with the same game plan, (to rate slightly back of the speed) his competitors, including Conveyance, will likely cross in front of him. Many times that particular action of traffic coming over and in front of a runner with good natural speed, will impede that runners balanced stride/action, as the rider adjusts to the traffic by taking hold and slowing or steering. When that occurs, Sidney and horses like him will likely pull against the bit and the riders weight.. while taking mud/dirt to the face... all the while expending energy, without a gain in position. That's never a positive for a horse who is most comfortable up front..

It's always an advantage for any horse who doesn't intend to race to the lead to break outside of the horses who are inherently faster, for the reasons I mention above.. Anybody with even a moderate talent for watching races can confirm that..

Perhaps cj, you should defer to Bailey on this matter.. and quit pretending that you know more than he does on race positioning for horses of various styles. It's good for the forum, particularly the newer handicappers, that you don't usurp the authority of men like Jerry Bailey. Let the newer guys learn from the men and women who know what they are talking about..

[Watcher]

Last 60 years and how each post position has faired.

http://horseracinginside.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/statistical.png
http://www.horseracinginside.com

[PaceAdvantage]

Some of you guys need to learn to stop posting like five-year-olds. I had to remove a few posts because of the unncessary language, then I realized it has become an epidemic.

You guys can do better than this. And if you can't, I'll continue to delete your posts.

[bigmack]

http://horseracinginside.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/statistical.png
Give me an M
Give me an E
Give me an A
Give me an N
Give me an I
Give me an N
Give me a G
Give me an L
Give me an E
Give me an S
Give me another S

What's it spell?

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/cheer2.jpg

[WinterTriangle]

I don't have the stats but you have to separate the fields of 12 (14?) or less from the bigger fields and then take odds into account.

You also have to realize we're wagering on a classic race, at 10F. Some of the horses I see people high on have about as much classicity as my barn cat. ;)

[pandy]

Even if a horse has tractable speed and is suited to an outside post, that doesn't mean that he is in a good spot from post 20. This is a fallacy. Post 20 is a terrible post.

[lamboguy]

Jerry Baily has not been right since Roosevelt.


my pick for the derby is MISSION IMPAZZIBLE. it ws my pick before ESKY was officially out. i have no good reason for my pick either except that the agent for Rajiv is not only one of the top agents, but also a good friend of mine Richie Dupass. he was in Louisville monday and was heading back to New York. i told him to stay in Kentucky and watch the horse win on saturday. he still went back.

[cj]

A horse with LAL's style, a presser or mid-packer, is better suited to break from the middle or outside and drop in behind the speed to save ground - or avoid mud kicking back - at his riders discretion. This can all be done very smoothly, without asking the horse unnecessarily to expend energy.. An inside draw forces him to to run for position so he doesn't get trapped behind-non-contenders, or take too much dirt/mud in the face. A good horse needs to run at certain points to maintain a contending position.. Running outside the speed is helpful in that regard, particularly in the mud.

Further, an outside post is generally very suitable for the long run at Churchill for a horse like Sidney.. as it was for Big Brown. He can break - and use his natural speed - all the while, clocking those to his inside.. and either go on to set or force the pace, or alternatively, rate just to the outside and behind Conveyance and the other developing speed.. If he were drawn inside with the same game plan, (to rate slightly back of the speed) his competitors, including Conveyance, will likely cross in front of him. Many times that particular action of traffic coming over and in front of a runner with good natural speed, will impede that runners balanced stride/action, as the rider adjusts to the traffic by taking hold and slowing or steering. When that occurs, Sidney and horses like him will likely pull against the bit and the riders weight.. while taking mud/dirt to the face... all the while expending energy, without a gain in position. That's never a positive for a horse who is most comfortable up front..

It's always an advantage for any horse who doesn't intend to race to the lead to break outside of the horses who are inherently faster, for the reasons I mention above.. Anybody with even a moderate talent for watching races can confirm that..

Perhaps cj, you should defer to Bailey on this matter.. and quit pretending that you know more than he does on race positioning for horses of various styles. It's good for the forum, particularly the newer handicappers, that you don't usurp the authority of men like Jerry Bailey. Let the newer guys learn from the men and women who know what they are talking about..

There is so much wrong with this post, but I'll try to just hit a few points.

First, the post was not advantageous for Big Brown, he won despite it. He probably would have won from the 50 post, or the parking lot. He was miles the best.

Second, Bailey was an expert rider, great at winning races. That does not make him an expert on post draws for the Kentucky Derby. He is basing his statements on perception and that is often the wrong way to go.

Third, I think it is good to question supposed experts when they stray from their field of expertise. It happens all the time in horse racing. Trainers think they can ride, jockeys think they know where enter a horse, bettors think they know how to workout a horse, trainers think they know how to make figures, and so on.

We don't get many twenty horse fields in this country, so the sample is small, but they do other places. The 20 hole is not the place to be regardless of running style. The rail generally is the place to be over the long haul. It doesn't mean it will work out for every single race.

[lamboguy]

There is so much wrong with this post, but I'll try to just hit a few points.

First, the post was not advantageous for Big Brown, he won despite it. He probably would have won from the 50 post, or the parking lot. He was miles the best.

Second, Bailey was an expert rider, great at winning races. That does not make him an expert on post draws for the Kentucky Derby. He is basing his statements on perception and that is often the wrong way to go.

Third, I think it is good to question supposed experts when they stray from their field of expertise. It happens all the time in horse racing. Trainers think they can ride, jockeys think they know where enter a horse, bettors think they know how to workout a horse, trainers think they know how to make figures, and so on.

We don't get many twenty horse fields in this country, so the sample is small, but they do other places. The 20 hole is not the place to be regardless of running style. The rail generally is the place to be over the long haul. It doesn't mean it will work out for every single race.2 points i want to hit on with the big brown thing. dutrow always thought that big brown did not like horses on the outside of him, they though the horse got braver without seeing horse on his right side, secondly that horse had so much more ability than the others that being on the outside guaranteed him of not getting in trouble during the race

[HollywoodParkStwd]

Elevator door open. Jerry Bailey is standing in there alone. The following conversation happens.

Zippy: hi Jerry. I'm a huge fan. From Boston this is my 1st Derby.
JERRY: nice to meet you. Who do u like?
Zippy: I actually like lookin at lucky. You?
JERRY: I like him too but its a tough post. If he can't hustle out he might be in trouble. The horse that I love is Sydney's Candy!
ZIPPY: HE has a tough post too.the #20.
Jerry: No. That is actually the perfect post for him.

We say bye and I stare uncomfortably long at 1 of my idols.

The race isn't at Santa Anita and they won't let SC walk around in 1:12 or 1:13 for the 6.

[HollywoodParkStwd]

A horse with LAL's style, a presser or mid-packer, is better suited to break from the middle or outside and drop in behind the speed to save ground - or avoid mud kicking back - at his riders discretion. This can all be done very smoothly, without asking the horse unnecessarily to expend energy.. An inside draw forces him to to run for position so he doesn't get trapped behind-non-contenders, or take too much dirt/mud in the face. A good horse needs to run at certain points to maintain a contending position.. Running outside the speed is helpful in that regard, particularly in the mud.

Further, an outside post is generally very suitable for the long run at Churchill for a horse like Sidney.. as it was for Big Brown. He can break - and use his natural speed - all the while, clocking those to his inside.. and either go on to set or force the pace, or alternatively, rate just to the outside and behind Conveyance and the other developing speed.. If he were drawn inside with the same game plan, (to rate slightly back of the speed) his competitors, including Conveyance, will likely cross in front of him. Many times that particular action of traffic coming over and in front of a runner with good natural speed, will impede that runners balanced stride/action, as the rider adjusts to the traffic by taking hold and slowing or steering. When that occurs, Sidney and horses like him will likely pull against the bit and the riders weight.. while taking mud/dirt to the face... all the while expending energy, without a gain in position. That's never a positive for a horse who is most comfortable up front..

It's always an advantage for any horse who doesn't intend to race to the lead to break outside of the horses who are inherently faster, for the reasons I mention above.. Anybody with even a moderate talent for watching races can confirm that..

Perhaps cj, you should defer to Bailey on this matter.. and quit pretending that you know more than he does on race positioning for horses of various styles. It's good for the forum, particularly the newer handicappers, that you don't usurp the authority of men like Jerry Bailey. Let the newer guys learn from the men and women who know what they are talking about..


Sidney's Candy runs distance one way- he sets very slow fractions early- then turns it on late- always on the lead. He has been that was since he broke his mdn last August 22. Do not fool yourself into thinking that SC can suddenly become a stalker- a style totally unfamiliar to him- on dirt- at a distance he has never run in before.

[Bettowin]

Sidney's Candy runs distance one way- he sets very slow fractions early- then turns it on late- always on the lead. He has been that was since he broke his mdn last August 22. Do not fool yourself into thinking that SC can suddenly become a stalker- a style totally unfamiliar to him- on dirt- at a distance he has never run in before.


Is the way SC races a result of the poly style or because that's how he has to run? I think he can turn it up a notch on dirt and keep his late kick.

[rastajenk]

That's kind of what I was thinking...first off the Poly, could move forward. Could also be useful when the track comes up muddy.

Still hate the post position, though. Tough task from out there regardless of history and statistics.

Also wanted to agree with Lambo about Big Brown. He was so much the best he just took that handicap right out of the equation, like putting through the break. Re the 'worst field of all time' thread, 2008 goes down in my book for that dubious distinction, verified by low-rent versions of the Preakness and Belmont that year.

[lamboguy]

john sadler has been the hottest trainer on the planet lately for over a year now. he must have figured out the synthetic, but he has horses running on real stuff now too.

[DRIVEWAY]

I will never forget Jerry Bailey's ride on Arcanques in the 1993 Breeders Cup Classic. Wow!

[Robert Fischer]

I believe the strength or weaknesses of the post position go hand in hand with those of the horse.

If the horse has natural quickness out of the gate and is going to be ridden to the front early, than the 20 post is nice. If you are really fast enough to be in the top 5 horses, the 20 post provides the luxury of danger from "only" one side. With post 20 a fast horse can establish good early position 3 or 4 wide, and hopefully be mid-track or at least not hung too wide into the first turn.

While post 20 is a curse for late-running horses, the speed horse in post 20 can be ridden a little more smoothly, and isn't as reliant on navigating as in post 1.
In Post 1, the perception is that a horse must GO-GO-GO from the start. The other way is to hope a pocket opens up(ususally in the front third) and navigate through that. Sedgefield (sp?), had a "pocket trip" in 2007 from post 1. He(a very average horse) either ruined a very inexpensive $1 super(IIRC paid 16K!) by finishing 4th or failed to hit my ticket by finishing 5th... more relevant that year was Curlin from maybe post 2-4 :confused: that year, being navigated by Robbie Albarado, who "missed" the pocket, and cost his horse a chance at contending for the win.

I think the best "all-around" posts are from 5-15.

[salty]

Last 60 years and how each post position has faired.

http://horseracinginside.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/statistical.png
http://www.horseracinginside.com

How are there zero winners from post 11?

didn't everyone just go over in another thread that winning colors came out of that post?

I know its every derby or so but this ones better
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/winning-post-positions.html

[eastie]

Give me an M
Give me an E
Give me an A
Give me an N
Give me an I
Give me an N
Give me a G
Give me an L
Give me an E
Give me an S
Give me another S

What's it spell?

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/cheer2.jpg



TLG, I didn't know your honey was a cheerleader :ThmbUp:

[Watcher]

How are there zero winners from post 11?

didn't everyone just go over in another thread that winning colors came out of that post?

I know its every derby or so but this ones better
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/winning-post-positions.html

From where that data was pulled, it says she came out of Post 1.

[Ejmenz]

Lucky is a trouble horse, he finds it, he's not very nimble and the one hole is a really bad spot for a horse like him.

There is a horse in the race that has always been within a length and half of lucky in three attempts, closing each time, he gets his first shot at dirt and has competed in 4 grade one races, 2nd most in the race.

do you like 3-1 or 50-1.

[PhantomOnTour]

Jockeys are amongst the worst handicappers on the planet. Their opinion about who will win a race means naught to me, esp if they've never ridden any of them.

[hazzardm]

My step-son who lives next door, is married to a girl that once lived in Hialeah, FL., and she dated JB for a time......He is a DB.... He is so full of himself...

best


Uhhhh, what is a DB ?

[andicap]

I think Bailey purposely misled Zippy Chippy on his pick in order to help the odds on his REAL choice. :)

[hazzardm]

Elevator door open. Jerry Bailey is standing in there alone. The following conversation happens.

Zippy: hi Jerry. I'm a huge fan. From Boston this is my 1st Derby.
JERRY: nice to meet you. Who do u like?
Zippy: I actually like lookin at lucky. You?
JERRY: I like him too but its a tough post. If he can't hustle out he might be in trouble. The horse that I love is Sydney's Candy!
ZIPPY: HE has a tough post too.the #20.
Jerry: No. That is actually the perfect post for him.

We say bye and I stare uncomfortably long at 1 of my idols.


I have a hunch you will be back for more Derbies in the future, sounds like a great time. :)

FWIW, JB was very cordial when I met him briefly at Gulfstream in several years ago ....

[rrbauer]

Last 60 years and how each post position has faired.

http://horseracinginside.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/statistical.png
http://www.horseracinginside.com

Need to add to this how many starters from each post to compensate for the years that there weren't so many starters.

[HollywoodParkStwd]

Is the way SC races a result of the poly style or because that's how he has to run? I think he can turn it up a notch on dirt and keep his late kick.

Anything can happen in the Derby- even a filly that never won a Grade 1 race can run second as with EB, but the bottom line is- what do you think of SC as a classic horse?

I think he can handle the dirt and he is sharp, but that isn't the same as coming from SA- running easy fractions early then blazing home in races you had everything go perfect in. There is a reason why SC was 4-1 in the SA Derby- he was falling apart in the San Felipe- his first start around two turns. Had that race been any longer SC would have been lucky to make third.

So you are asking SC to win from post 20 when he has never been out even half that far (Farthest out was post 8- he lost) only the third time he is going two turns- coming off two races where he had easy leads setting very slow fractions. SC won't even hit the board in my opinion.

[HollywoodParkStwd]

Lucky is a trouble horse, he finds it, he's not very nimble and the one hole is a really bad spot for a horse like him.

There is a horse in the race that has always been within a length and half of lucky in three attempts, closing each time, he gets his first shot at dirt and has competed in 4 grade one races, 2nd most in the race.

do you like 3-1 or 50-1.

Lucky is a sucker bet in the KD- stay far away from him as he won't run poorly, but he will find a way to have huge traffic problems and be the 'Now' horse in the Preakness.

[andymays]

So you are asking SC to win from post 20 when he has never been out even half that far (Farthest out was post 8- he lost) only the third time he is going two turns- coming off two races where he had easy leads setting very slow fractions. SC won't even hit the board in my opinion.


Sidney's Candy wins the race.

Post #20 forces Talamo to sit behind the pacesetters where he will have his best chance and get a perfect trip. If he were drawn inside the other speed he could be caught in a duel. The pace in his last couple wasn't all that slow for a Pro Ride Race.

The other thing people aren't considering is that quite a few horses with his style (on or near the pace) coming off of Pro Ride can improve anywhere from 5 to to as much as 20 beyer points on dirt.

[cj's dad]

Uhhhh, what is a DB ?


I'm making an educated guess here - douchebag.

[onefast99]

Several years back we were at Saratoga ,after a race we walked back to the paddock area behind Bailey and a few other jocks where my friend Roger asked JB what he would miss the most once he is done riding, just then a guy started heckling Bailey about his ride in the previous race....Bailey turned to my friend and said that is one thing I won't miss.

[hazzardm]

I'm making an educated guess here - douchebag.

Ouch. Seems a bit harsh.

[HollywoodParkStwd]

Sidney's Candy wins the race.

Post #20 forces Talamo to sit behind the pacesetters where he will have his best chance and get a perfect trip. If he were drawn inside the other speed he could be caught in a duel. The pace in his last couple wasn't all that slow for a Pro Ride Race.

The other thing people aren't considering is that quite a few horses with his style (on or near the pace) coming off of Pro Ride can improve anywhere from 5 to to as much as 20 beyer points on dirt.

LOL- Goodluck with that bet. I never once said anything about SC's Beyer Figures since you seem fixated on that to mention it.

The SF was 1:13 2/5 at the 6- SC was walking along and still fell apart deep stretch- that was why he was 4-1 in the SA Derby. In the KD you are asking him to do all that you mentioned above when he has never done it before.

Goodluck with that my friend

[andymays]

LOL- Goodluck with that bet. I never once said anything about SC's Beyer Figures since you seem fixated on that to mention it.

The SF was 1:13 2/5 at the 6- SC was walking along and still fell apart deep stretch- that was why he was 4-1 in the SA Derby. In the KD you are asking him to do all that you mentioned above when he has never done it before.

Goodluck with that my friend


I guess you didn't see any improvement in Line of David at Oaklawn on dirt?

He (Sidney)fell apart in the stretch in the Santa Anita Derby? :eek:

[hazzardm]

I will never forget Jerry Bailey's ride on Arcanques in the 1993 Breeders Cup Classic. Wow!

Or Grindstone in '96. Still burns me that is stablemate Editor's Note took so much money for that entry. :faint:

[Stevie Belmont]

The best Best Jerry Bailey moment I ever saw came at the Meadowlands about several years ago. He was on a big favorite and the horse spit the bit turning for home.

Bailey is in the paddock heading back to the jocks room. A disgruntled bettor/fan comes over and sees him and yells (go back to New York Bailey!!—you suck!!)

Jerry turns around and snapped right back (I'm going xxxhole!!!)—that was classic. You could hear him all the way up the apron.

Best ride? One of them was when he guided Chester House up the hedge to win the Arlington Million several years ago.

[classhandicapper]

I always thought the running style of the horse and the actual early pace had a lot to do with which posts were good or bad in the Derby.

If the pace is very fast, the field tends to string out quickly and leave some pockets of room for mid pack horses and closers to tuck in and save some ground even if they started from outside posts.

If the pace is slower, the horses tend to be bunched up going into the first turn. That's when a lot of horses lose ground, get bounced around, or get buried on the rail.

[joanied]

I bet you would get that answer from almost every jockey on the planet. They all love outside posts. They are all gutless wonders (except for Calvin Borel). They would rather run wide and lose than save ground and and have to negotiate traffic jams.

Unless you have been aboard a horse in a race...I would not call these men 'gutless wonders'...for all the obvious reasons. Jeeze.

[joanied]

Hey...one of the Greathouse family members had a dream the other night...said the 11 horse won the Derby :eek:

[bdubz9180]

Lucky is a trouble horse, he finds it, he's not very nimble and the one hole is a really bad spot for a horse like him.

There is a horse in the race that has always been within a length and half of lucky in three attempts, closing each time, he gets his first shot at dirt and has competed in 4 grade one races, 2nd most in the race.

do you like 3-1 or 50-1.


Which horse is this ?

[joanied]

Without looking it up...I'd say it's Nobel's Promise...ya might want to check the PP's, though :)

[Watcher]

Lucky is a trouble horse, he finds it, he's not very nimble and the one hole is a really bad spot for a horse like him.

There is a horse in the race that has always been within a length and half of lucky in three attempts, closing each time, he gets his first shot at dirt and has competed in 4 grade one races, 2nd most in the race.

do you like 3-1 or 50-1.
Without looking it up...I'd say it's Nobel's Promise...ya might want to check the PP's, though

Nah, Noble's Promise ran on dirt in the Rebel Stakes. I think he's talking about Make Music For Me.

[hazzardm]

I think he's talking about Make Music For Me.

IMHO, Make Music For Me and 10f do not belong in the same sentance...

[joanied]

Nah, Noble's Promise ran on dirt in the Rebel Stakes. I think he's talking about Make Music For Me.

I think you are right:ThmbUp:

[bdubz9180]

IMHO, Make Music For Me and 10f do not belong in the same sentance...

What's 10f ?

[Bettowin]

What's 10f ?

1 1/4 mile or 10 furlongs.

[cj's dad]

What's 10f ?

Each furlong = 1/8 of a mile; ergo, 10 f = 1 & 1/4 miles

[bdubz9180]

Each furlong = 1/8 of a mile; ergo, 10 f = 1 & 1/4 miles
gotcha... thx. So Make Music For Me is a sprinter, but not going the distance is what we're saying?

[JustRalph]

gotcha... thx. So Make Music For Me is a sprinter, but not going the distance is what we're saying?

Now u got it

[reckless]

hi everyone:

I think that Looking at Lucky is a legit favorite for Saturday's Kentucky Derby but the No. 1 post position will hurt his chances more so than post 20 will hurt Sidney's Candy.

I think the post will not be a lucky one for 'Lucky' because I believe the running of the Santa Anita Derby lays too heavy on the collective minds of both trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Garrett Gomez.

We all know the way the SA Derby unfolded, with Sidney's Candy bouncing out to the lead as his norm and basically having an easy time of it, winning in wire-to-wire fashion. And, of course, we're all aware of the troubled trip Looking At Lucky encountered.

I am pretty sure that as a precaution against a similar type of race unfolding, Baffert wants Gomez to place 'Lucky' closer up early. I am not saying wing-dinging it to the lead, just have the colt a little bit closer, in a stalking-pressing like position going into the first-turn.

Baffert may believe that 'Sidney' is the real horse to beat and that 'Lucky' can't be too far behind again or he simply can't catch him late. Baffert may also think his horse is capable of beginning his run much earlier than usual and still have his strong late run of foot.

The #1 post does make this a bit tougher, obviously, for two reasons:

First, 'Lucky' will be the first one in the gate, then ... the circus begins. God only knows how long or hideous it'll take to load the remaining 19. There's always 1-2 others that get worked up due to the crowd noise or whatever and these types always give trainers, owners, bettors and fans agita. A delay, however slight, can't help the horse(s) already in the stall, especially the favorite.

The second reason that post 1 is horrible in this scenario is the real risk that with all the possible jostling and banging right out of the gate could cause 'Lucky' to be 14th or 15th instead of 4th or 5th three jumps after the start. 'Lucky' might be able to overcome this misfortune being he's a rather late-type runner but would you want to see this if you bet the horse at 3-1, 7-2, or even less??

So. while few know how a horse will react under those circumstances and while 'Lucky' is a talented colt and legit race favorite, there's no reason for me to think that he's a super horse who could overcome such a unfortunate scenario.

People love to say that 'Lucky' ran well and still came on late to be third after all his trouble in the Santa Anita Derby. What they don't tell you is that he lost ground despite gaining position, which makes such a 3rd place finish rather meaningless, IMHO.

Good luck to everyone on Derby Day and note that I enjoy the various and serious discussions on PA. Thanks.

[Market Mover]

The best Best Jerry Bailey moment I ever saw came at the Meadowlands about several years ago. He was on a big favorite and the horse spit the bit turning for home.

Bailey is in the paddock heading back to the jocks room. A disgruntled bettor/fan comes over and sees him and yells (go back to New York Bailey!!—you suck!!)

Jerry turns around and snapped right back (I'm going xxxhole!!!)—that was classic. You could hear him all the way up the apron.

Best ride? One of them was when he guided Chester House up the hedge to win the Arlington Million several years ago.


I was at Saratoga walking thru the clubhouse with the jocks as they make their way back to the jockeys quarters along that path that's outlijned in white. A few children (decently behaved) approach Jerry as he scurries after blowing it on heavy chalk horse and they ask politely "Jerry, Jerry, could we get an autograph?" Bailey turns around and sternly responds, "Not now Kids!"

I lost respect for that man that day. It was totally uncalled for. We are talking about 7 or 8 year olds here.

[Hanover1]

Somebody pointed out to me that when Bailey turns sideways on TV, his head sticks way out in back, so much so that you have to laugh. Remember this Derby day, and have a chuckle. It worked for me... :lol:

[WinterTriangle]

Wow creepy post, and not just because Bailey is lost on post positions.

People are looking for *tells*.

One of the guys on TVG today said something about seeing Baffert give him a "head nod". He read that as a sign that Baffert was going to win, or something like that.

Like being at an auction........don't accidentally raise your hand to scratch your ear........lest the auctioneer yell SOLD! and mark you down for the bid. :lol:

[PhantomOnTour]

I was at Saratoga walking thru the clubhouse with the jocks as they make their way back to the jockeys quarters along that path that's outlijned in white. A few children (decently behaved) approach Jerry as he scurries after blowing it on heavy chalk horse and they ask politely "Jerry, Jerry, could we get an autograph?" Bailey turns around and sternly responds, "Not now Kids!"

I lost respect for that man that day. It was totally uncalled for. We are talking about 7 or 8 year olds here.
Seven and eight yr olds should have called him Mr Bailey

[johnhannibalsmith]

Seven and eight yr olds should have called him Mr Bailey

Seven and eight yr olds should have called him "shorty".

[eastie]

Seven and eight yr olds should have called him "shorty".


sharp post

[castaway01]

Unless you have been aboard a horse in a race...I would not call these men 'gutless wonders'...for all the obvious reasons. Jeeze.

Yeah, why do I have the feeling the "gutless wonders" guy has never been on a horse, much less driven a car in traffic? Lots of new trolls here lately.

[castaway01]

I was at Saratoga walking thru the clubhouse with the jocks as they make their way back to the jockeys quarters along that path that's outlijned in white. A few children (decently behaved) approach Jerry as he scurries after blowing it on heavy chalk horse and they ask politely "Jerry, Jerry, could we get an autograph?" Bailey turns around and sternly responds, "Not now Kids!"

I lost respect for that man that day. It was totally uncalled for. We are talking about 7 or 8 year olds here.

I know Bailey's not the friendliest guy on earth, but he was working at the time. Did he have another mount in the next race that he needed to get ready for? Do you ask outfielders for autographs as they come off the field after the fourth inning and get upset when they don't give them to you?

[jognlope]

That's a fun post. But lookin could be a good starter too and be out of traffic. Line of David at least in the trifectra for me, too hard to bet this year.

[the little guy]

Bailey just gave out Mission Impazible on ESPN as his pick.

Apparently he doesn't like Sidney's Candy anymore. Too funny.

[PhantomOnTour]

Seven and eight yr olds should have called him "shorty".
Best post I've read yet on any Triple Crown forum....nice one john. :ThmbUp:

[Trotman]

:lol: TLG and if you buy Jerry's video he will give you the real winner

[Zippy Chippy]

Bailey just gave out Mission Impazible on ESPN as his pick.

Apparently he doesn't like Sidney's Candy anymore. Too funny.

are you serious? thats hilarious

[joanied]

Hey Zippy...what are ya gonna do now? Bailey is as un decided as everyone else:D

[Tom]

So far, Natalie Morales has been the voice of reason on this coverage. She side stepped a turd with new new pink shoes.

[JustRalph]

you left out the part about the 8 yr old had dropped his autograph marker and it landed straight on top of Baileys head........

I would have yelled at the kid too

[BluegrassProf]

I would have yelled at the kid tooAnd if you were Bailey, hopefully gotten an 8-year old ass-kicking.

;) :ThmbUp:

[judd]

WONDER HOW MANY SENT FOR HIS CD PACKAGE :lol:

[cj]

At least for one year we won't have to hear the silly theory about how great the outside posts are. In a field as big as the Derby, trouble can be found from any post, but in the long run the inside will always have the bigger advantage.

[Buckeye]

He's a pinhead not a visionary. What'd you expect? I for one don't think Bailey ever stepped up to the plate at any time like that "New York Hillbilly" Cordero did or for that matter Pat "I'll wait all day" did-- (He had ice water in his veins!) It's kind of a different grading system that applies when you don't have the best horse to begin with. Many times Bailey had the best horse so all he could do was mess it up.