Feel of a longshot Derby...

[strapper]

The fallout at this year's Derby just gives the whole affair a real longshot scenario. The abundance of speed, questionable stayers makes me think deep closer, so it might be wise to handicap this one from the bottom up on the morning line... How do you guys see it? :confused:

[46zilzal]

If anything the fields have become more about pressers than any other style as true stamina is going the way of the Woolly Mammoth.

[Bettowin]

I am looking at combining the horses in the pack just off the speed and the deep closers. For example, Sidney's Candy, Mission Impaz and Lucky with Ice Box, Stately Victor and maybe Paddy Oprado if it turns up wet.

I just think there are going to be a lot of very tired horse headed for home and the ones that have been passing horses late are going to be the ones to include.

Anyone notice Sidney's Candy was born in January which makes him 4 months older than Lucky and 3 months older than many of the other contenders? Haven't really heard anyone talking about it and if it even matters. Logic would say it doesn't hurt.

[rastajenk]

My first impressions are that the gimmick payoffs will be huge. The notion that more than one of the logical favorites will get clean trips and run their best races is fanciful, if not far-fetched. Beyond that, I haven't a clue.

But whatever the outcome, in the weeks ahead we'll hear so much redboarding we'll be amazed that the tri pays over $100. :jump:

[Stevie Belmont]

You want a crazy longshot?

How about Make Music For Me? 1st time dirt and should be a huge bomb.

He also ran right behind the favorite—Lookin at Lucky 3 seperate times.

[Bettowin]

You want a crazy longshot?

How about Make Music For Me? 1st time dirt and should be a huge bomb.

He also ran right behind the favorite—Lookin at Lucky 3 seperate times.



Hmmmmmmmmm. He was gaining on Lucky at 1 1/16. His last race looks terrible but it was at Keeneland. Maybe he can hit the super?

[Stevie Belmont]

These are the kinds of horses you want to see get in there on the bottom of a ticket, such as supers.

All the horses that have tried dirt for the first time recently have run well. American Lion, Lookin at Lucky, Line of David, Conveyance...so why not?

This one will be overlooked and forgotten.

I will use him somewhere


Hmmmmmmmmm. He was gaining on Lucky at 1 1/16. His last race looks terrible but it was at Keeneland. Maybe he can hit the super?

[JPinMaryland]

You want a crazy longshot?

How about Make Music For Me? 1st time dirt and should be a huge bomb.

He also ran right behind the favorite—Lookin at Lucky 3 seperate times.


He ran 2nd twice, last summer, on turf. Going 6 1/2f and 7f.

BSF's dont look anywhere near.

But good luck on the super, that would pay well. I dont think I can afford the super. Even the trifecta looks like a lot of cash...

[JPinMaryland]

Also getting back on the subject of troubled trips. Blinker wearing fellas often have a history of troubled trips although I do appreciate a trainer trying to get the horse to focus which no doubt is a valid concern.

I remember Bob and John in 2006 was it??, he was a blinker wearing klutz and draw a post right next to Barbaro who always seemed to dig in on the break and lean one way or the other. Sure enuf he got wiped out at the start.


The other blinker wearing race I remember was that Santa Anita Derby that had only one horse in the field not wearing blinkers. I even mentioned it here. That horse was Tiago. Did I bet it? No.. :bang:

Is there a site that tells us who is or is not wearing blinkers on sat? Im pretty sure they have to declare it by now...tx..

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Make Music For Me may opt for the friday race that he is also entered in now with the rain coming.

[WinterTriangle]

why not?



In a race where even the best analysts feel unsure, and given the added problem of an off-track, I can think of many reasons.:D

Using the kitchen sink approach may pay, but the outlay for me on that proposition is not the way I normally use my $$.

Given the off track, even a truly distance-challenged horse like Conveyance could get up here. (Despite the fact that he beat up on nobodies in CA, did okay in the SW at ONE MILE, then folded in the Sunland at only 9F when the real racing began).

If I was handicapping a formful race, he'd be the first one off my ticket.:D

So, why not? depends on how much $$ you're willing to sink into a race like this on an off-track. :)

I'll play, and post, a token wager for it, it's the KY Derby after all. If the weather is as bad as they say it will be a small wager.

[Wiley]

Is there a site that tells us who is or is not wearing blinkers on sat? Im pretty sure they have to declare it by now...tx..
JP,
Bris pp's show blinker use in the past and any changes for the current race. I guess you should check raceday to see if this info still holds true -walking ring look.
Lookin at Lucky is blinkers off like he ran last year and the filly is first time blinkers on which seems strange to me in this race with all of the pace she might get bunched up with the 5 or 6 E's near the front end.

Guess Pletcher has his reasons for the switch and maybe he hopes this is a fix for her continued troubles at the break.

Most are not wearing blinkers for the Derby.

[Stevie Belmont]

There is only so much you can do here. I have a future on Sidney's Candy at 22/1. He is covered. I might find another way to get him in another bet.

Now I think post 20 is way out there. He might be able to avoid getting a mouth full of mud being out there.

Sloppy track throws a monkey wrench in the whole thing. Some are just not going to like it. Some will love it.

You could have a race where there will plenty of seperation between the horses coming down the stretch.

In 04 is was Smarty Jones and Lion Heart and really the rest were back there in the slop.

I would also like to do 5 horse zacta box for a buck—no favorites though.

I would much rather see a sloppy track over a muddy track—of all the types of tracks, I dislike muddy the most.





In a race where even the best analysts feel unsure, and given the added problem of an off-track, I can think of many reasons.:D

Using the kitchen sink approach may pay, but the outlay for me on that proposition is not the way I normally use my $$.

Given the off track, even a truly distance-challenged horse like Conveyance could get up here. (Despite the fact that he beat up on nobodies in CA, did okay in the SW at ONE MILE, then folded in the Sunland at only 9F when the real racing began).

If I was handicapping a formful race, he'd be the first one off my ticket.:D

So, why not? depends on how much $$ you're willing to sink into a race like this on an off-track. :)

I'll play, and post, a token wager for it, it's the KY Derby after all. If the weather is as bad as they say it will be a small wager.

[JPinMaryland]

Yes, Note the PP link (http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_191378.pdf)

listed in the other thread has the current equipment for tomorrow's race.


Lookin at Lucky is blinkers OFF and
Devil May Care is blinkers ON, those appear to be the only changes.

WHy is Baffert taking off the blinker's now? I think I recall him taking off blinkers in other big races.

Slop tends to spread out the field does it not? One should pay particular attention to the early races to see if there is better ground out into the middle of the track which often develops at CD. Some of these horses need to be by the rail e.g. Sidney's Candy, maybe another reason to stay away?

[JPinMaryland]

Getting back to this....LAL had blinkers off for the Rebel stakes after wearing them in all previous races. The Rebel is his only dirt start and he sat off the pace and wore down the leaders in the stretch. It looks like Gomez had to pull him up suddenly at the 1/2 mile, trip notes says "jumped hills", it looks like he almost clipped heels from the way it looks on you tube...

Then back to blinkers and synthetic in the SA dby. where as favorite he was blocked on the turn.

The horse seems focused and determined in all his races; maybe Baffert just wants him to relax behind the leaders. Im leary of synthetic but the Rebel was fairly impressive. At 8-1 I am not going to leave him off...

[eastie]

anyone know if any of these guys has a good mud foot ?

[Grits]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56775/haskins-derby-report-mud-bombs


Maybe a bit of enlightenment in all of this. Let's hope so.

This kinda weather is going to hurt Churchill tomorrow. A lot. Though, somehow, maybe there will be improvement.

One may want to look at more of Belmont's card!!

[JustRalph]

anyone know if any of these guys has a good mud foot ?


my software shows they are all within five points of each other :lol:

lots of help huh?

Ice Box and American Lion with a very slight advantage

[MutuelClerk]

I'm mostly a harness player, but enjoy racing. Plus, these mutuel pools are irresistible. To me, and outsider, this year is alot like last year. The probable favorite last year Quality Road and this year Eskedereya are scratched about a week before the Derby. The track is going to be soup again. A longshot last year. Samething this year. I enjoy reading the insights here. And just so I have it on paper, here are my plays tomorrow. Not that anyone cares....

1 tri 2-4-6-14/16/1-2-4-6-7-13-14 24.00
1 tri 2-4-6-14/1-2-4-6-7-13-14/16 24.00

1 ex box 2-4-6-14-16 20.00
3 WP 2-4-6-16 24.00
4 WP 14 8.00= 100.00

[RXB]

Sloppy track = pass for me. Probably wouldn't have bet anyway, but the downpours will cinch it.

[JPinMaryland]

Hey good idea on Make Music for me, he filled the bottom of the superfecta which must have paid alot.