The Naked Truth (or at least one gal's opinion)!

[VetScratch]

I grew up inside of racing and have always been connected to it through friends and family. After college, my serious daytime jobs have been in software and free-lance writing. On account of my backsiders's perspective, years passed before I became interested in handicapping databases or software.

Why? Because most horsemen quite frankly ridicule handicappers for thinking they can predict the outcome of races. The only handicapping variables that are widely respected are speed figures, and horsemen view historic speed ratings more as a measurement of a horse's best demonstration of ability than as a predictive indicator for today's forthcoming performance.

The most ridiculed book among horsemen is Tom Ivers "The Fit Racehorse," which proposes to improve horse training by borrowing from the modern sports medicine and conditioning practices that work so successfully for human athletes. However, I suspect that most intelligent readers would say Ivers makes a lot of sense. Moreover, some horsemen, who openly laugh at Ivers and would-be owners who show up carrying the book, have quietly but discreetly made small changes to their training regimens based on Ivers' ideas.

Of all handicapping authors, only Ainslie and Beyer get much respect on the backside. Ainslie because he was enjoyable to read and surveyed so many performance issues without claiming to have conquered handicapping. Beyer because his speed figures were better than the DRF SR+TV, and because local/regional variant experts appeared and disappeared like wandering nomads.

Other handicapping authors/methods seldom gain respect among backsiders because, like Ivers' book, they seem better suited for predicting human athletic performances in track and field events. To most horsemen, handicappers accept too many underlying assumptions borrowed from human behavior in competitive events.

Trainers who followed a traditional path into their occupations view handicappers as suckers. Other trainers, who did not grow up raising and caring for horses, are more likely to give credence to handicapping methods. Almost none, however, are candid believers that pure handicappers can beat takeout, and therefore show a profit.

Backsiders find nothing in past performances that is significant enough to reasonably forecast how a field of horses with a hundred unpublished behavioral idiosyncrasies and health problems will cross the finish line. By this I mean that unless insider knowledge is combined with handicapping, most horsemen truly believe that every horseplayer is doomed to fail.

If my parents hadn't made me go off to college, I would probably still share the backside view that all handicappers are fools.

Today, I believe that maybe the most highly skilled one-percent of all "pen-and-pencil handicappers" take money from other horseplayers and thereby earn a good living comparable to mainstream professions. By virtue of handicapping databases and software, I believe that maybe another two percent of all handicappers earn a good living playing the horses. Higher percentages seem improbable because hard work and uncertainty will discourage many players who possess pre-requisite skills.

Finally, at the apex of the handicapping pyramid are individuals or "partnerships" that are able to effectively combine insider information with superior handicapping. This, I believe, is the very tiny minority that accounts for at least fifty percent of the profits that leave the pari-mutuel systems.

Of course, long before computers, those able to profit from insider information have always been the Kingfish among the world's horseplayers.

Also note that nothing that I have discussed addresses drugs or cheating. These considerations sit on top of everything else, but are seldom as important as the essential dynamics. Questionable tricks are no guarantee of success, and they actually fail more often than they succeed. There is also no reason to trust crooked tips because crooks have no incentive to inform honest people. Thus, information about drug abuse or cheating is not reliable unless you are part of the crime.

The real cheaters don't spin information to anyone for fear of being ratted out. On the backside, every friend is liable to be tomorrow's worst enemy. Some trainers posture themselves as wise guys to gain valuable marketing notoriety. Some owners like to impress their friends, but owners are the trainers' least likely confidants when they are taking their "best hold" on a race. The majority of owners are the biggest suckers in the game!

[VetScratch]

In my previous post, I probably should have used "serious handicappers" in place of handicappers, and my estimates apply to "serious handicappers."

Because my post was for board members, I totally disregarded the multitudes who have no good insider information and practically no handicapping skills.

[cato]

Vet: Nice post.
Among other things, you said,

"Of course, long before computers, those able to profit from insider information have always been the Kingfish among the world's horseplayers.

Also note that nothing that I have discussed addresses drugs or cheating."

What do you consider "inside information"? Wouldn't knowledge of drug use and cheating be inside information?

It seems to me that outside of drugs and cheating inside information boils down to many variations of the following:

horse feels good,
horse feels bad
the barn is "going" for it
the barn is not going for it

And even the drugs and cheating fall within those 4 categories.

I owned a small % of 12 horses for a few years and the "inside information" was generally unreliable OR it was known to anyone who was paying attention.

For example, when we knew the horse was not on its game but was going to run anyway for whatever reason--workot, make the track happy to fill a field etc., we knew not to bet, but, generaly. so did anyone else who was (i) at the track and looking at the horses OR (ii) taking a close look at the past performances. And, of course, one at least one of our horses who was not "going for it" won and paid about $60 with no barn money on it (aaaaargggggggggggg).

And to the extent all systems were go--horse felt great, good training, etc., and we knew inside stuff like the apparent prime competitor in a race was feeling bad, etc., well then the odds were SO LOW it hardly made it worhwhile.

So, after just a little rambling, my point is that, in my view, insider information seems vastly overrated.

Can you go ointo this more or talk of experiences (no names!) where it has proved to be profitable long term>?

Thanks, Cato

[Storm Cadet]

Vet,

Really nice piece you wrote today! Keep it up! That's why I came to this site...to read INSIGHTFULL PIECES on horse racing and handicapping!

I especially enjoyed the part about traditional horsemen not believing openly about new training methods...I'm a sports medicine professional and I've talk to my horse trainer about some of the new therapy methods that we employ with our athletes (cold laser being one) and he has been very open to using some of the regimes in treatments for the equine barn that he trains.

I just returned from St. Louis a couple of weeks ago for my national medical meetings and you can't believe how many main stream sports medicine companies are now branching off into the equine business (Therapy units, preparations for healing, sports nutritionals, tape and wraps) with some big name trainers as new clients!

We're going to keep the discussion going when I get to Saratoga next week

Thanks again!

:D

[JimL]

Vet, A very informative post. If you have the time could you express your thoughts on why more owners dont simply insist on interval training for their stock. Seems to me they would have much sounder race horses. JimL

[Show Me the Wire]

JimL:

My opinion. Training techniques used for human athletes may not be completely transferable to horses, due to physical differnces in human and equine structure. Actually, I think Cernin was an advocate of interval training and I think he backed off of it.

Maybe Storm Cadet could add more to this discussion. How about it Storm?

Regards,
Anthony

Perception is reality

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by VetScratch
Some owners like to impress their friends, but owners are the trainers' least likely confidants when they are taking their "best hold" on a race. The majority of owners are the biggest suckers in the game!

=============================

One of Grampa's friends, who used to have a stable of horses, would only bet on his horses if Grampa thought they had a chance. The friend's trainer was J. Hollendorfer who always said the horses were "ready to fire" even if they were JOFE. Grampa sez, "If you trust a trainer, I have eight Bay Area bridges for sale."

-L.C.

[Valuist]

I have been in partnerships that have owned horses and I have seen how the trainers think. I would say a very large percentage of them are poor handicappers, who rely mostly on old wives tales and bad advice. Bobby Frankel is an exception, as he came to the game as a gambler/handicapper first, then horseman second, unlike the majority of trainers. You can have the greatest horsemanship skills in the world but if you enter your horses in the wrong spot they will not make any money.

And then come the litany of excuses; "he just didn't handle the racetrack" appears to be the most common. The only time the guys (or women) on the backside have the edge is in races with several 1st time starters or layoff horses.

In Steve Crist's book he details how little the people on the backside really knew. Bill Shoemaker told him that when he retired from riding he wanted to make book in the jocks room because the only people who were worse than trainers at capping were jockeys. And more trainers came to Crist asking who'd win than the other way around.

[Alc]

Vetscratch------- Sure wish I could have said it that well. After 35 years in the game as a player, owner, and family member of a trainer, I have come to the same basic conclusions. The vast, vast majority of players are supporting a very , very small sophisticated minority.Still enjoy the game with the realization that it is a hobby.

[GameTheory]

It could be that the horsemen and the handicappers are both right. That is, the handicappers can't predict horseraces very well, but can still make money anyway. The horsemen (& "non-serious" handicappers) have a misunderstanding of the gambling part of the game. You don't have to predict the winners all that well -- you just need to do it somewhat better than everyone else, and then make intelligent wagers.

Regarding "inside information" and the sophisticated bettors -- the few big bettors that I am personally aware of (that make money) use nothing but the same data the rest of us have in sophisticated ways, and generally go for big scores in the exotics.

[Jaguar]

Vet,

You are so right, and so is Game Theory, many good points.

My exposure to trainers and jockeys- as well as farriers- leads me to conclude that backstretch folk are woeful handicappers in general, and only score with well-meant first-timers.

Whereas handicappers, viewing the game dispassionately, are equipped with really strong algorithms for rating the jockey/trainer nexus- stats which indicate when to key a horse and when to go to the concession stand.

Jockeys and trainers act in repetitive ways, thank goodness, and the effectiveness of those habits can be accurately measured.

Otherwise, I would have to re-join the Foreign Legion and once again have to listen those endless stories of how tough it was in Algeria in the 1950's... how boring.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Skanoochies]

I have been going to the race track for many years, and the biggest farce of inside info is the "trapped epiglotis" line. Hundreds of times I have heard of the horse who had "trapped epiglotis" and since his last race has had corrective surgery since his last race and will kick ass his (or her) next time out. What a crock of sheepdip. I don`t think I have ever seen one of these horses win. Another one is the trainer who says his horse will run "good" today. I don`t believe they are lying, but i would like to hear from the other nine trainers in the same race. I`m sure most would say the same thing.

Oh well just venting, good luck everyone.

Skanoochies.:D :D :D

[Kentucky Bred]

After the Del Cap victory today Frankel notched his 34th!! Graded Stakes win. And it is still July!! He has blown away Baffert and Lukas even in the good days for the quality and depth of his stable. And yea, he is a proponent of the Ragozin Sheets as one factor to use when setting up a race strategy. He is a dangerous handicapper and I suspect wasn't a loser when he bet more often.

For the most part I don't believe in "fixed" races. There is a game in every race. The problem is how many people do you let in on the secret? It gets really complicated to pull off a race. Do you even know, for certain, that even your horse is going to run today?

There are scams that happen, especially at lesser tracks. But for every scam that works how many lose and cause an abnormal betting payoff?

I was told by a bookie that if he could ever take bets right on the backstretch he would make more money than anyone. He has absolutely no fears about taking big action from the backstretch. That is because they lose so often. You see, every owner thinks they have a shot to win. In a field of 10 horses (definitely not SoCal), there is only one Winner's Circle.


Kentucky Bred

[hurrikane]

trainers laughing at handicappers. What a joke.

I never met or heard a trainer give any meaningful explaintion of why thier horse lost.
I have heard a million BS reasons ranging from "the horse doesn't like to run by himself" ( this said about an horse you could only describe as a front runner) and " the horse doesn't like the colors on the silks".

I've never heard one say "I didn't place him well. I'm not really good at that. This horse should really be in a 15K claimer but I run him in NW1 to make his idiot owner think he's going somewhere when he writes the check every month."

Vet.
I agree with a lot of what you say but I think the numbers are likely a little higher than you think. Like in most things I would not be surprised to see 20% are winners with 5% taking most of the money.

[VetScratch]

Lots of opinions have been expressed, so what I'll do to respond is expand upon my original post with several re-posts instead of brooking arguments with individiuals.

Let me begin by discussing several issues about scope, and then address more meaningful topics in later posts if there is any interest out there.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE
========================
I posted my opinions based on my own experiences and observations. It is not surprising that others disagree. Everyone in and around racing will form their own opinions.

My direct experiences have been with my dad (breeder/owner), other breeders/owners, one great-uncle and two uncles who were good trainers, several cousins who did or still train, one cousin who is a racetrack official, and plenty of other backsiders who I met over the years or worked with when I was younger. We never raced in CAL or NY, but we ventured to PA and MD a couple times, including one Preakness. In the winter, most of my backside relatives/connections raced in Florida or at the Fairgrounds, but the big center cut of America was (and is) their true stomping grounds. My dad still has part of a KY farm, and he used to share a farm in Ohio, but he has been letting his broodmare band diminish since about 1992. Most trainers that I have known via first-hand exposure came from the Kentucky hardboot school or emerged from the Cajun parishes in Louisiana. More recently, some of my backside connections have cowboy country backgrounds. My own horses have usually been homebreds, although I have claimed a few in Florida, including a 3YO for 20K who earned almost a million for me and my trainer/uncle. Over the years, my relatives have trained thousands of horses, including about 300 owned by family members. Many PA board members have seen my uncles and cousins in person or on TV. Some of you have undoubtedly seen my dad (and even me) in the customary group shots of winners circle connections.

My views and opinions come from the breadbaskets of American racing. CA and NY may be different, as they are in many respects, and most of my backside friends would ask, "Who would want to live there?" My family stopped racing in Chicago because of megapolostic hassles and risks, especially in Cicero. My mom and my uncle's wife put their feet down on Chicago, so to speak! Their favorites were always tracks in smaller cities like Lexington, Hot Springs, Bossier City, Henderson, Florence, and Grove City (home of my alma mater and the "Little Saratoga of the Midwest").

I guess you would say that my perspective tends to focus on "blue-collar" tracks, horses, trainers, and owners. While I have visited the NY and SO-CAL tracks, I have always felt that racetrack aristocracy was better served by the clubhouse policies at KEE or Ascot. At least you have probably touched a racehorse if you have clubhouse membership at KEE or Ascot.

OWNERS WHO ARE NOT BARN INSIDERS
============================
Almost no owners, who are not also horsemen, receive good information about when or how barns gamble. What possible incentive is there to include owners, or any outsiders, in a proposition they can only spoil? Honestly telling owners, who always ask, whether they can expect a good effort (or might even win) is one thing, but revealing your own wagering intentions is utterly foolish. In a good barn, owners will get their share of wins anyway, and they sometimes win a bundle when no barn money is at risk. You can honestly deal with owners by telling them, "I think we have a chance, and we should run respectably," or "I'm afraid we're in a little tough today." It makes no sense to add emphasis on "special" occasions by telling owners, "All my money will be down on your horse!"

BTW, owners who are treated like barn insiders include family relatives, owners of private training stables, industry hyperactives like Gill or Stronach, breeding/training/boarding farm owners, many broodmare owners, many bloodstock agents, some super-rich owners, some farm employees, some vanning or feed-supply owners/employees, and owners who simply cover the interests of jockeys, track vets, stewards, and other racing officials. If you didn't make this list, you are the enemy!

USEFUL TRAINERS
=============
Because bad barns are so numerous, I think a useful barn should win at least 50% above random chance. If average field sizes are 10, this would mean 15% wins or better. If average field sizes are 7, this would mean 21% wins or better. Operating below this level are numerous bad trainers and a few useful ones who lack the connections to get useful horses. I won't try to define "good" or "great" trainers because they primarily transcend the others by getting the best horses.

As a footnote, most published trainer statistics ignore field sizes. Thus, a HOL trainer may artificially look "good" to FG horseplayers, but a "good" HOL trainer should be "useful" anywhere in America.

I think any useful trainer can occasionally produce extrememly powerful angles that are hidden from public view and will defy discovery by almost all handicappers. Further, I don't subscribe to the theory that useful trainers must trespass the borders of mainstream backside ethics to occasionally cash a big gamble.

DISCOUNTING "FELONIES" AND CONSPIRACIES
=================================
Tips about the most serious illegal offenses are the least likely kind of "good insider information" that any "mainstream" insider will get. Maximum security is an absolute requirement for "black hat" trainers and jockey-room manipulators. When a trainer keeps a stash of cocaine or conspiring jockeys agree to stiff contenders, everyone who is not a perpetrator or co-conspirator is a potential informant or witness. Whatever may be said before the deed is done had better not arouse murky suspicions or ignite more buzz than run-of-the-mill explanations (i.e., cloaked works, new feet/shoes, ulcer cures, thyroid treatments, bleeding suppression, blood-count boosting, orthroscopic surgeries, old-fashioned gamesmanship, etc.). Big mouths earn "severe reprimands" and sometimes dig early graves.

The advent of so many high-tech and miniaturized photographic and video recording devices is also driving the "joint" makers out of business. Years ago, except for national media events, jockeys only had to worry about official scrutiny. Today, every move from every angle is liable to be recorded and can be enhanced to make a case against you. This is why I was positive that Santos was "clean" in the Derby. Except in remote backwaters, jockeys have become increasingly reluctant to carry joints. Today, joints are occasionally used to wake up "cheaters" before they leave their barns for the paddock (i.e., cheaters are fit horses with natural ability that exceeds their enthusiasm for racing). This example, along with many other questionable practices, is why some trainers vehemently hate quarantine barns.

Of the dozens of insider "scores" that I "might" vouch for, where at least 20K was taken out of a race, only two or three were founded on "high crimes" as opposed to superior training, "gamesmanship", and "misdemeanors." Among good horsemen, no one gains respect for "high crimes" that dilute the meaning of horsemanship. Many trainers value their reputation as good horseman above all else! When you scrape out a living, as the majority of trainers do, having been respected at any table of your peers is what you want as your epitaph! ... although card tables may have to be excluded.

At the same time, mainstream "gray hat" trainers frequently deduce the transgressions of "black hat" barns or corrupt jockey colonies but are reluctant to take affirmative action. As in carnival or circus subculture, and in the towers of corporate and government power, whistle-blowing usually penalizes the informants more than the perpetrators. For the most part, the good guys feed the rumor mill and hope that greed and excess will catch up with the bad guys. In truth, most of the serious penalties and consequences can be traced to a double-cross or falling-out among thieves. The "mitigating" circumstance that precipitates most severe penalties is usually "who you did" rather than "what you did."

If you will accept that any potent forces discourage "high crimes," they should be the small but immensely powerful oligarchies that represent the pinnacles of success for owners, trainers, and jockeys. Most of these powerful voices hate nothing worse than bad beats by inferior petty criminals, and they are also most likely to discretely dictate restraints or even punishment for "bad hat" peers. Without any specific intent except to illustrate how this happens, think for a moment how unstoppable locamotives like the Lukas barn, as well as many others, ever lose their iron grips on the top rings of local or national racing. I say this because racing funnels rewards and advantages to winners, and staying on top should be easier than getting there.

Unless several board members want to report first-hand experiences with "high crimes," I see no reason to dwell on them since reliable information about such doings is hard to come by. Furthermore, good handicappers should be able to spot illegal epidemics like the fairly recent trainer crime wave at Remington or the owner-financed jockey conspiracy that crippled Penn National. No one makes us download and play every track! For you paranoids out there, play where you feel most comfortable. Some bad things are always bound to happen, but I don't think they threaten you as much as takeout.

WINDUP
======
If there is any interest, as time permits, I will add posts that focus on other more meaningful aspects of my original post, as well as points raised by others, so long as we understand that I have nothing further to add about heinous crimes and "black hat" villains.

[Skanoochies]

Very interesting post. As to additional info I would prefer facts and data that might steer me to possibly being successful in making wiser bets and cashing rather than where and why I lost. That money is already gone and no use crying over it. Good stuff, I look forward to reading more of it. Thanks for sharing.

Have a good day,
Skanoochies.:)

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by VetScratch

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE
========================
I posted my opinions based on my own experiences and observations.....


DISCOUNTING "FELONIES" AND CONSPIRACIES
=================================
................

WINDUP
======
If there is any interest, as time permits, I will add posts that focus on other more meaningful aspects of my original post, as well as points raised by others, so long as we understand that I have nothing further to add about heinous crimes and "black hat" villains.


If, I recall correctly one of your prior posts described a conspiracy to deprive your mare of a win by incorrectly awarding a photo -finish to a local trainer. Posting the above-mentioned scenario, I think would encourage people to believe in conspiracies in horse racing.

To me it is only natural your story aroused attention and interest in further discussion of your now taboo subject. However, I agree with you when you said,

"Tips about the most serious illegal offenses are the least likely kind of "good insider information" that any "mainstream" insider will get. Maximum security is an absolute requirement for "black hat" trainers and jockey-room manipulators. When a trainer keeps a stash of cocaine or conspiring jockeys agree to stiff contenders, everyone who is not a perpetrator or co-conspirator is a potential informant or witness." and further agree with your observation that most big wins result from superior "gamesmanship" and not from high crimes.

It is important to remember that your observations are limited to your personal knowledge and your beliefs based on your personal observations may not apply to other areas of the country.

BTW, I guess after reading your post your last name does not end in a "vowel".

Regards,
Carlo

Perception is reality

[Big Bill]

VetScratch,

You wrote "Grove City (home of my alma mater and the "Little Saratoga of the Midwest"))". Did you mean Beulah Park or Ohio State University? I'm an OSU alum.

In my pre-retirement years I lived in Columbus and was a regular at Beulah. If you knew owners/trainers there did you know Jack and Mary Ann Thomas?

I've enjoyed your posts and found many of them quite informative. All of the regular posters on this board provide informative posts and oftern humorous ones as well.

Big Bill

[VetScratch]

Big Bill,
No, it was a play on words assigning both to the same name for two small towns. Beulah, yes, but my alma mater is in the other Grove City where my folks could keep closer tabs on me. I wanted to go to school in Boston, but my mom made me go to a small town in her radar range. Haven't been to Beulah for at least twelve years, so I imagine Columbus has sucked Grove City up by now.

But to be serious, Grove City College is one of the finest and most richly endowed private schools in the country. Great Computer Science department, but they could have picked a location where the busiest local attraction was not the old Pymatuning spillway, "where the carp were so thick that the ducks walked on their backs!"

To Ohio kids, I'm sure Oberlin would equate to Grove City insofar as NOT having a party school reputation among high school seniors.

[Storm Cadet]

Vet...

You grew up in one of my favorite areas...ALOT of my athletes are from that area of the Mid-west and I had the great fortune to work for one of your professional sports teams in that area for 3 years!

Had a blast during my time there...I go back there to watch the Yanks thump the Tribe every now and then!

You still there or are you out west coast now?
:)

[VetScratch]

Show Me The Wire,
If, I recall correctly one of your prior posts described a conspiracy to deprive your mare of a win by incorrectly awarding a photo -finish to a local trainer. Posting the above-mentioned scenario, I think would encourage people to believe in conspiracies in horse racing.

Quite observant as usual! That was the worst experience among thousands of starts and thousands of legitimate losses. We didn't have the clout to avoid it or remedy it, so we just moved on, but I loved your incredible AP quip, "But it did burn down!" :) :) :)

We had to move on, wary but wiser, and likewise, what else can handicappers really do?

[Kentucky Bred]

VS, frankly you can post as much as you would like in my book especially on these subjects. Having been an owner of a much smaller stable a few years back there is not one doubt in my mind that you have a wealth of experience in this area.

Nearly a million from a 20K claim? Wow. I am truly impressed. That is a huge claim and the very best success imaginable. However, I would think the number of horses which could qualify for this acheivement are very few. I'll bet there is a database that could find that list somewhere. I sure as hell don't have one though. ;)

Kentucky Bred

[VetScratch]

Kentucky Bred,
I guess we'll separate the database boys from the database men!

Quite a challenge, though, to trace through all such Florida claims since I was old enough to do it! While PC "may" have entered the media vocabulary, you "might" need to go back before harddisks came along. Where's that old Kodak viewer and those shoeboxes full of DRF microfiche?

The winner may need a white cane to walk up to awards podium, where he/she might even be greeted by one of my ex-husbands' current wives!:) :) :)

[Kentucky Bred]

Judging by the age of the girl in the picture (avatar) I thought you might be her age. LOL

Seriously, a phenomenal claim. If I had ever had the opportunity to take that claiming ride, I would take the experience to my grave.

KB

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Big Bill
VetScratch, You wrote "Grove City (home of my alma mater and the "Little Saratoga of the Midwest"))". Did you mean Beulah Park or Ohio State University? I'm an OSU alum.
In my pre-retirement years I lived in Columbus and was a regular at Beulah. If you knew owners/trainers there did you know Jack and Mary Ann Thomas? I've enjoyed your posts and found many of them quite informative. All of the regular posters on this board provide informative posts and oftern humorous ones as well.
Big Bill

Having a Dated a few Grove City Gals from around the area of Beulah I was starting to worry that I might know Vettie. My ex wife comes out of that same school district and Vettie puts a sentence together better than a graduate of that system. Ha! Just kidding........... there are some fine women in those surburbs surrounding Little Mountaineer.........that is probably a better description of Beulah. A Mountaineer without the money. I learned to drive in the parking lot at Beulah. The old man would let me drive his old 63 Wagon around the lot after the races. They did have the best damn Meatloaf Sandwich I ever tasted though..... oh the memories of that area are wafting back, what's that smell? Oh yeah......Grove City!

[VetScratch]

The girl in the picture was 34, five (going on six) years ago. You guys wouldn't appreciate an update for as often as I post! It would be too depressing.:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

[Valuist]

It sure beats looking at that old avatar Tom used recently (monster baby).

[Tom]

Originally posted by Valuist
It sure beats looking at that old avatar Tom used recently (monster baby).

The monkee ate him.:(

[LurkingBettor]

Many PA board members have seen my uncles and cousins in person or on TV. Some of you have undoubtedly seen my dad (and even me) in the customary group shots of winners circle connections.

VS,

Would we recognize you with your clothes on?
;)

LB

[Tom]

Are you Chelsie Canty?
Caton Bredar
MuttonChops?:rolleyes:

[ranchwest]

Exactor Man?
Mr. Lucky?

[VetScratch]

Tom,
Are you Chelsie Canty?
You never cease to amaze me!!!!!!

Well guys, the jig is up, so to speak....
http://homepage.tinet.ie/~abbeydorney/book/canty.html

[VetScratch]

For the serious sleuths, my real alma mater, disguised earlier as Grove City, OH, the home of Beulah, or maybe Grove City, PA, near Pymatuning reservoir, was actually Garden City Community College.

There you will truly find one of my poems, on the official college web site, written when I was a gushing freshman. This particular poem immortalizes me, probably because I am still recognized as the only student who was able to take the back seat of Dean Wayne's finicky Buick up to 98 degrees then back to 68 degrees in only 15 minutes!

Here is my poem from freshman year at Garden City:

Ode To NH3, IDLH

I came all the way to Kansas
Even made it to Dodge City
I was here for an Ammonia Class
My lab books weren’t too pretty

Garden City’s not a hot bed
Of lots of things to do
But they took us out to lunch each day
And Wayne gave us cookies too

We studied by the pool each night
And drank a couple beers
David fixed his carburetor
And reduced his traveling fears

Marc sang Karaoke and was sorry that he did
All those friends in low places are keeping themselves hid
Ed, well he’s the quiet sort, Frank is full of jokes
Martin’s an academic; at NH3 he took a poke

Loane and Dave Oltrogge worked through the week just fine
Dennis said he’s never seen a personality quite like mine
Jon had some discussion on whether the book was right
Nothing too alarming, not like it kept him up at night

Doug and Rich and Daniel toiled and proudly carried Tolin’s sword
There was something ‘bout a wise ass and my name up on the board
Dallas took us to the pool and an old icehouse that we saw
Garden City Community College, by gosh, don’t that beat all.

[VetScratch]

Most informed observers believe that racing is an endangered industry. What should be done to reform and save horseracing has been widely discussed and analyzed. What is missing is an effective means to coordinate and implement nationwide changes. What stymies racing is the degree of difficulty compared to other sports/entertainment/gambling industries. Baseball is challenged to formulate, coordinate, and implement a nationwide business model that "appeases" owners, players, fans, officials, and the media. Racing is challenged to organize likewise, but racing must consider state treasuries, racetrack owners, breeders, horse owners, trainers, jockeys, fans, officials, and the media. Will racing find a way to make a comeback? I'm not very optimistic, but you can make your own odds.

Sweeping economic changes are required. The most controversial but effective change would be to sanction artificial insemination (AI). While the uppermost echelon of breeders would be devastated, AI would re-focus the industry on racing rather than the auctions. Because champion colts and fillies disappear into the breeding industry at age three or four, racing has tried to market jockeys and trainers as marquee attractions. However, Bailey and Frankel can't compete with Kobe and Shaq, Giambi and Jeter, or Faulk and Warner. By removing the incentive to prematurely retire champions, there is hope that horses can again become the stars and marquee attractions of horseracing. Racing desperately needs to foster the emergence of champions who race four or more years and become household names that sustain interest from year to year.

When horses are in the wild, turned out, or in a large paddock area, only freak incidents that provoke a fight or flight response will induce them to undergo stress levels that we routinely demand of them in the short and medium sprints that are most frequently written for young horses. Many horsemen will infer this is ass-backwards by saying something like, "If God made horses for drag racing, they would be built like Rhinos!"

Radical Reforms To Save Racing
=======================
Sanction artificial insemination.
Eliminate races for 2YOs.
Move Triple Crown to 4YO season.
Eliminate dirt races.
Convert all main dirt tracks to turf courses or to wood-chip training tracks.
Train on natural terrain (like Europeans), or turf courses, or wood-chips.
Shift emphasis from sprints to routes (i.e., no races under 7f).
Establish national licensing standards and regulations for owners, trainers, jockeys, grooms, etc.

I don't expect to see any comparably bold reforms during my lifetime!

[gino]

vs-
if u live forever u won't see a single one of these proposals implemented.

Greed is what made America great, and with all the greedy bastards in the headlines, her continued Greatness seems like a safe bet. The ruling class of Racing, however, is a bunch of dumb bastards.
"And the Stewards have ruled: There Will Be No Change."

gino

[Dave Schwartz]

VetScratch,

I concur with everything you said.


While we are dreaming...

One thing I would like to see happen is a breeder's bonus for horses that win at older ages. In other words, encourage breeders to breed for longevity and get purse money to pay for it.

Another possibility is to increase purses to horses that never raced at age two.

And tracks seem to love this "purse adjustment" stuff... look what it has done for the statebred programs without demanding special races carded just for statebreds.

Elimination of two-year old racing is essential.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Valuist]

I love turf racing as much as anyone but I hope to God we'd never see the end of main track racing. With a few exceptions around the world, everyone else races only on the turf. And then we'd get tracks like Arlington and Saratoga who'd get an 1/8 of an inch of rain then decide to cancel all the races for the day.

As for the others, I have no objections. I wouldn't mind seeing sprints cut back and adding more routes. If the Triple Crown was moved to a horses 4YO year, you might find Baffert, Lukas and Zito in the unemployment line.

[Fastracehorse]

<Why? Because most horsemen quite frankly ridicule handicappers for thinking they can predict the outcome of races. The only handicapping variables that are widely respected are speed figures, and horsemen view historic speed ratings more as a measurement of a horse's best demonstration of ability than as a predictive indicator for today's forthcoming performance.

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It is my belief that a good handicapper is better at predicting the outcome of a race than the best horsemen are - afterall, horsemen are just that.

fffastt