Kentucky Derby Draw

[sandpit]

For anybody that can't watch the Derby Draw live via other means, the Courier Journal, Louisville's main newspaper, will videocast it live on their website: http://www.courier-journal.com/. The link will be near the top of the page under "More Derby Headlines"

[Skanoochies]

Thanks Sandpit, much appreciated.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Anybody else having problem with the video or is it just me?

[Stevie Belmont]

I hope El Sid gets 12 and out

[Spendabuck85]

Thanks for the link.

[ezrabrooks]

I hope El Sid gets 12 and out

You got it..

[Stevie Belmont]

Holy Cow! Number 20 for Sidney's Candy

I'll take it—it's beat the hell out of the 1 hole for him anyway...Lucky will have to work a trip out from la-la land down there...

Pros of post 20? Last one in and no horses to bother him on his right. And yea you can win from out there.

Cons? Could get stuck wide.

Hopefully a nice stalking trip outside the other speed. So far so good...

Not on record for a pick yet--hope the weather cooperates...

[GaryG]

Surprising that Battaglia said the ML was cast in stone before the draw. Does anyone think Lucky's chances are as good now as they were before the draw? I agrree Stevie, the 20 will keep SC out of trouble. Worked out well two years ago.

[cj's dad]

Surprising that Battaglia said the ML was cast in stone before the draw. Does anyone think Lucky's chances are as good now as they were before the draw? I agrree Stevie, the 20 will keep SC out of trouble. Worked out well two years ago.

Hopefully, no helicopters will be hovering overhead.

[Stevie Belmont]

I don't like the 1 hole one bit in the Kentucky Derby...

Gomez and Baffert will have to decide if they will take back and sit way off or try to jockey early for a spot. 19 others to his right coming over...

Lookin at Lucky done be unlucky

With that said he still can win...needs to work a great trip from that spot

Surprising that Battaglia said the ML was cast in stone before the draw. Does anyone think Lucky's chances are as good now as they were before the draw? I agrree Stevie, the 20 will keep SC out of trouble. Worked out well two years ago.

[miesque]

I don't like the 1 hole one bit in the Kentucky Derby...

Gomez and Baffert will have to decide if they will take back and sit way off or try to jockey early for a spot. 19 others to his right coming over...

Lookin at Lucky done be unlucky

With that said he still can win...needs to work a great trip from that spot

I agree, Post Position 1 is an awful post with 20 horses in the gate and has been quite an unproductive post position. It would appear that since 1960 only three horses have won from post position 1 with the most recent being Winning Colors in 1988, Ferdinand two years prior and then you have to go all the way back to 1963 and Chateaugay for the next winner from the rail. Both Sidney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky are going to both require masterful rides and prove themselves to be exceptional horses if either wins from their respective post position.

[Stevie Belmont]

The great thing for Sidney's Candy is he has natural speed and should get into the race nicely. Whatever happens from there on out—we will have to see...

Lookin at Lucky continues to have crappy luck. I would like to hear what Baffert has to say. He can still win, but a lot of things can go wrong down there. Remember straight ahead is the rail, Gomez will have to maneuver him around that as well. The good thing for him is he is not a speed horse...if he was he would be a dead duck...

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I agree, Post Position 1 is an awful post with 20 horses in the gate and has been quite an unproductive post position. It would appear that since 1960 only three horses have won from post position 1 with the most recent being Winning Colors in 1988, Ferdinand two years prior and then you have to go all the way back to 1963 and Chateaugay for the next winner from the rail. Both Sidney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky are going to both require masterful rides and prove themselves to be exceptional horses if either wins from their respective post position.

Wasn't Winning Colors #11? or was it #8 in '88?

Will Looking at Lucky ever get a clean trip in a race. Trouble hovers over this horse like a dark cloud. Is it to late to change his name? I am pretty sure Looking at Unlucky is available. Maybe if they change it, his luck with change to.

[Robert Fischer]

I agree, Post Position 1 is an awful post with 20 horses in the gate and has been quite an unproductive post position. It would appear that since 1960 only three horses have won from post position 1 with the most recent being Winning Colors in 1988, Ferdinand two years prior and then you have to go all the way back to 1963 and Chateaugay for the next winner from the rail. Both Sidney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky are going to both require masterful rides and prove themselves to be exceptional horses if either wins from their respective post position.

from what i can remember recently=
2007 = sedgefield had post 1 and had a dream trip (remember the pocket alberaDOH! turned down to make Curlin run a ton more?)
2008 = cool coal man crashed and burned as expected
2009 = west side burnie finished 9th which is probably right where, or better than expected

[nomadpat]

I've seen a lot written about how bad the #1 post is. I wonder how many of those that were in the 1 post were expected to win/less than 6/1 say? And also, does the 1 post have more of a disadvantage with field sizes requiring the auxiliary gate?

[kenwoodallpromos]

With Endorsement out, my new longshots that the posts may help are Super Saver and Dean's Kitten.

[SMOO]

I've seen a lot written about how bad the #1 post is. I wonder how many of those that were in the 1 post were expected to win/less than 6/1 say? And also, does the 1 post have more of a disadvantage with field sizes requiring the auxiliary gate?
19 other horses trying to squeeze to the rail before the 1st turn is not a good thing.

[miesque]

Wasn't Winning Colors #11? or was it #8 in '88?

Will Looking at Lucky ever get a clean trip in a race. Trouble hovers over this horse like a dark cloud. Is it to late to change his name? I am pretty sure Looking at Unlucky is available. Maybe if they change it, his luck with change to.

I just did a quickie web search to get some data and I don't have time to cross check to make sure it was accurate but I know its been quite some time since post one has had a winner in the Derby.

[miesque]

My apologies, Winning Colors was post #11 (goes to show you about , and I double checked the chart and Ferdinand was indeed post #1 back in 86.

[point given]

Surprising that Battaglia said the ML was cast in stone before the draw. Does anyone think Lucky's chances are as good now as they were before the draw? I agrree Stevie, the 20 will keep SC out of trouble. Worked out well two years ago.

I agree, he must either be getting lazy, or was under time constraints to get the line out quickly after the draw. To me Lookin at UNlucky should've moved to 5/1 and Sidney to 10/1. It looks as if the draw really compromised the faves and will make the outcome and payoff more .

[Robert Fischer]

to his favor LAL is responsive, and Gomez is one of the jockeys who will adapt and move a horse around. He could get a terrible trip and he could get a great trip we'll have to see. It does make things more interesting, and I am sure we will see articles about how bad the post is statistically, maybe with some "Lucky" puns...

[Dman]

You we're correct the first time Miesque...Winning Colors came from the 1 hole. Ferdinand also did...but in 86 not 87.

http://horseracing.about.com/od/history/l/blderbywin.htm

[Dman]

With Endorsement out, my new longshots that the posts may help are Super Saver and Dean's Kitten

Curious on why Super Saver? He was the my first toss as he's never passed a horse in any race that I can see.

[miesque]

You we're correct the first time Miesque...Winning Colors came from the 1 hole. Ferdinand also did...but in 86 not 87.

http://horseracing.about.com/od/history/l/blderbywin.htm


That is exactly the link I ended up on first time around and figured it was correct so I didn't go through the trouble of corroborating the numbers as I really was just trying to get a gauge of how rare a victory from the rail was in the Derby. However, after OFFandRUNNING10 brought up that he thought it was #11 or #8, I did go check out the official BRIS chart at kentuckyderby.com and according to that Winning Colors

http://d3b4lt1s53xf6k.cloudfront.net/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/charts/1988.pdf

[Dman]

Thanks for that info!

[ddog]

Of course the weather maybe a big factor , but most of the field can not run a step.

So, i am downplaying the posts at this time(for now) as I think the good horses will move to where they want to be and then the race will start.

I just don't think the field is deep at all, lots of NO hope mile horses in here , much less Derby distance.

Ml doesn't mean jack in this race.
Set them all at 20-1 to one, who cares.


As to the 1 hole , i can see a perfect trip if he breaks just ok.

Should have a great chance to be sitting 8-9 about 5 back and then if he has anything left pick a hole and go.

[Robert Fischer]

http://www.kentuckyderby.info/postpositions.php

^THIs link gives you post position data and Each Winner's! post up to 2005(Giacomo post 10) have fun

and rememeber last 3 1 posts were Sedgfield(dreamtrip),Cool Coal Man(distanced challenged crash n burn -interestingly same pilot as Sedgefield, - Leparoux), and West Side Bernie in 2009(finishing midpack about where expected).


-------
side note, according to the general type of pp stats, Pletcher should be pleased. No, Eskendereya didn't make it to post, however he had a good draw and several runners.

[JPinMaryland]

One additional concern about the no. 20 post. if the horse has a history of "Missing the break" where he veers outward on the break, then I would be leery of post 20. This would only be a concern if he's done it in the past, not sure about this one, havent checked the PPs.

[Stevie Belmont]

Hoping for a nice clean break, and for him to get into the race a few lengths off or so all on his own. I think he will rate fine. Basically looking at the same trip as Big Brown got If all goes well. He was wide and still won. He should be 5 or 6 wide possibly. I hope no more then that. We will just have to wait and see.

The pace could be very fast, being too close could be bad news.

I still think some jocks might try to hold back a bit knowing the pace will be fast. Sometimes you expect a fast pace and it does not materialize—Only so much a jock can do if their horse is front runner and can't rate, they can't take their horse out of their game or they will be toast.

How realistic is it that Conveyance pops out to clear lead through quick fractions or moderate? He reminds me of Lion Heart with his running style.

Biggest concern is how the track will be—fast, wet, sealed, sloppy, muddy?

Muddy is the worst case scenario...




One additional concern about the no. 20 post. if the horse has a history of "Missing the break" where he veers outward on the break, then I would be leery of post 20. This would only be a concern if he's done it in the past, not sure about this one, havent checked the PPs.

[GregReinhart]

Biggest concern is how the track will be—fast, wet, sealed, sloppy, muddy?

Muddy is the worst case scenario...

IF the weather forecast verifies, we're looking at a period of heavy rain (3-4 inches) from Friday night through Saturday, so basically the same as last year, if not wetter.

[DeanT]

I'd listen to Reinhart and cap for sloppy. Ever since he was a wee child he has wanted to be a weather man and follows radar maps like people follow Ashton Kutcher on Twitter.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

That is exactly the link I ended up on first time around and figured it was correct so I didn't go through the trouble of corroborating the numbers as I really was just trying to get a gauge of how rare a victory from the rail was in the Derby. However, after OFFandRUNNING10 brought up that he thought it was #11 or #8, I did go check out the official BRIS chart at kentuckyderby.com and according to that Winning Colors

http://d3b4lt1s53xf6k.cloudfront.net/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/charts/1988.pdf

Good find!! I thought she broke from the middle area. She was #8 who broke from Post 11.

[chickenhead]

I could be wrong, but I've watched enough Derbies to think most of what kind of trip a horse works out is dumb friggin luck, regardless of pp. They can get screwed from anywhere, they can get a great trip from anywhere. It's just not very meaningful with that many horses, chaos reigns.

[MNslappy]

One additional concern about the no. 20 post. if the horse has a history of "Missing the break" where he veers outward on the break, then I would be leery of post 20. This would only be a concern if he's done it in the past, not sure about this one, havent checked the PPs.

SA Derby "bobbled at the start"
Alw46000 "hopped; off bit slow"

2 bad starts in 6 races. Thanks for bringing this up, it's something to consider that's for sure.

[Stevie Belmont]

Weather now calls for heavy rain and possible thunderstorms. Weather like this will most certainly impact the race. There are some who won't care for it at all. Too bad another crap track is in store...

Hope it's at least sloppy instead of a slow, tiring muddy surface...Oh well

[Stevie Belmont]

#KentuckyDerby Capping Tid-Bit — Horses Who Have Won On An Off-Track—Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine & Backtalk—Twice

[Grits]

Baffert:

“Plan A is to break well,” said Baffert when asked about the rail position after the pill-pull blind draw.

Ironically, when posts were drafted, as they have been in recent years, Baffert would have had first choice. He likely might have chosen #12, from which his Conveyance will break.

And if Lookin At Lucky doesn’t break sharply? “Plan B is we're screwed.”

One can't help but like a guy with this sense of humor.:lol:

[Stevie Belmont]

Good Ole Baffert just telling it like it is...

[joanied]

I just love Baffert...his plan B is perfect :D ...he also asked if they could re name Lucky!!
I bet Gomez will have nightmares about this post...when they pulled Lucky's name for PP#1, I about passed out :faint: ...I can see him getting sqeezed 5 jumps out...Gomez is going to have to keep himself a cool dude and try to anticipate his every move.

I hope the weather forcast is wrong...yesterday they said some showers, but now someone said rain, rain, rain...if the racing Gods love us...the track will dry out...I'm going to do a Sun dance:jump:

[JPinMaryland]

SA Derby "bobbled at the start"
Alw46000 "hopped; off bit slow"

2 bad starts in 6 races. Thanks for bringing this up, it's something to consider that's for sure.


He's also a decided front runner, and doesnt figure to make the pace from the 20 hole. Gee, I'm tempted to leave off the top slot...this race gets harder the more I think about it.