Oaks PPs and Picks

[keithw84]

Not sure if anyone has posted these yet, so here are the PPs:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/pps/oaks2010classic.pdf

I like Amen Hallelujah but I am worried she will be overbet. Other thoughts?

[RockHardTen1985]

I doubt anyone but Blind Luck will be overbet. Your looking at 4-5 on her.

[PhantomOnTour]

Despite being 1-8 lifetime I think Beautician is all set. Back to dirt and back to CD. Nice Beyer pattern. Doesn't look as good as Blind Luck, but should be used underneath.

[letswastemoney]

Blind Luck looks like a monster on dirt courses. And notice she won at Hollywood pretty convincingly too, which people keep saying is hybrid dirt/cushion

[Market Mover]

Despite being 1-8 lifetime I think Beautician is all set. Back to dirt and back to CD. Nice Beyer pattern. Doesn't look as good as Blind Luck, but should be used underneath.


Use Beautician on top. Ran a winning race as a youngster at the Spa and ran into a runaway sprint monster that day. McPeek finally realizing this one hates the Kee poly, and the return to dirt should set her up for a peak effort. Consider that last synth prep just a paid workout...

She was unlucky in that near miss at OSA in the BC (goes to show you not all synth are created equal)..but she did beat Blind Luck in that race. 1 and 1/8th within her range..

[Spalding No!]

Use Beautician on top. Ran a winning race as a youngster at the Spa and ran into a runaway sprint monster that day. McPeek finally realizing this one hates the Kee poly, and the return to dirt should set her up for a peak effort. Consider that last synth prep just a paid workout...

She was unlucky in that near miss at OSA in the BC (goes to show you not all synth are created equal)..but she did beat Blind Luck in that race. 1 and 1/8th within her range..

I don't like those conspicuous dead last finishes flanking her 2nd in the Honey Bee, I think more was at play than not caring for either surface. Furthermore, she failed at even money in the Oaklawn race getting dusted by a horse who returned to be buried by favorite Blind Luck in the Fantasy.

The pace scenario is a bit interesting. Champagne D'Oro is the only confirmed frontrunner, and doesn't give in easily if allowed to clear. I think that will make it ultra tough for Amen Hallelujah and Tidal Pool to get the jump on Blind Luck and have anything left to hold the favorite off. One of those 2 is going to end up the sacrificial lamb.

[redshift1]

Not sure if anyone has posted these yet, so here are the PPs:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/pps/oaks2010classic.pdf

I like Amen Hallelujah but I am worried she will be overbet. Other thoughts?


I like her but I think she's better at shorter distance's what makes you think she will handle 1 1/8.

[MickJ26]

I'm going to take a shot with Crisp. I know she's had a couple of works over the track, but, seems like when these California shippers hit dirt for the first time, they move up big time. Plus, Sadler/Rosario are red hot.

[KinkyFriedman]

Anything more than 1-5 on Blind Luck is a bargain. She's tons the best here. Should have been in the Derby.

[eastie]

Anything more than 1-5 on Blind Luck is a bargain. She's tons the best here. Should have been in the Derby.

1-5 in a 14 hoss field......are you sure you're on the right board :confused:

[keithw84]

I like her but I think she's better at shorter distance's what makes you think she will handle 1 1/8.
She ran 1 1/8 in the Bonnie Miss and came in second behind Devil May Care

[KinkyFriedman]

1-5 in a 14 hoss field......are you sure you're on the right board :confused:

Yep, I'm quite sure. I think she's THAT much the best.

[Spalding No!]

seems like when these California shippers hit dirt for the first time, they move up big time.

My only problem with this part of your argument is that the vast majority of those move ups occurred at Oaklawn Park (in previous years as well).

I wonder if that track is more conducive to CA-style (ie speed) of training.

[cj's dad]

Other than Blind Luck, I find 3 interesting:

#1 - It's Tea Time @ 15/1 - steady improvement on the AWS and last on turf - could come up big with the surface switch. Very good late pace figure.

#8 - Tidal Pool @ 8/1 - Balanced between early spped and late pace - should sit right off the 1st flight.

#13 - Amen Hallelujah @ 8/1 - Last puts him right there - my only concern is the post.

If Blind Luck doesn't fire or has a troubled trip, I look for these three to be solidly in the mix.