How much stock do you put into BSF's?

[Smarty Cide]

How important are the Beyers to you when you handicap the derby?

Im pretty sure last year they meant absolutly nothing as to how the derby turned out....

[bisket]

How important are the Beyers to you when you handicap the derby?

Im pretty sure last year they absolutly nothing as to how the derby turned out....
they are a good indication of how fast a horse ran a particular race. within 3 points or so i consider figures to be relatively equal. i don't judge horses to the exact number. for instance a horse that has a 96 fig in my opinion is fairly even with a horse with a 99 fig. you want to be sure your horse can run fast enough to win.. and this is a good indicator.

[Smarty Cide]

they are a good indication of how fast a horse ran a particular race. within 3 points or so i consider figures to be relatively equal. i don't judge horses to the exact number. for instance a horse that has a 96 fig in my opinion is fairly even with a horse with a 99 fig. you want to be sure your horse can run fast enough to win.. and this is a good indicator.

what did mine that bird run in the derby and what was his highest b4 that?

[sandpit]

what did mine that bird run in the derby and what was his highest b4 that?

He ran a 105 in the Derby. His previous high was an 81. Another example how the horse's Derby effort was a complete outlier in every way.

[Run Nicholas Run]

First off Smarty Cide- great user name :ThmbUp:

I can only speak for myself and what has won
for me in the past except the last 2 years
is I have my contenders just from the entries and
then I narrow down the plays which I only wager to win
by using the bsf, by using the last 3 races each of my contenders
have run and adding the numbers and playing the best of the numbers.

Past winners cashed on:
Street sense
Barbaro
Giacomo
Smarty Jones
Funny Cide
Monarchos
Charismatic
Real Quiet
Silver Charm

theres more as I had every winner also dating back to 91.

Some of the winners were logical , some maybe a stretch,
but the bsf do help as a guide to eliminate.

As of thus writing I'll do this years derby.

I have 9 contenders, but after doing the work I
have narrowed the field down to 4.

Sidneys Candy
Dublin
Jackson Bend
Super Saver

All to win , various amounts depending on the ml.

This is only my way of doing it. ;)

[rastajenk]

You had Giacomo, using Beyers? I'm almost interested as to how, except that I'm not.

[Smarty Cide]

I have 9 contenders, but after doing the work I
have narrowed the field down to 4.

Sidneys Candy
Dublin
Jackson Bend
Super Saver

All to win , various amounts depending on the ml.

This is only my way of doing it. ;)

What do you like about dublin, i kinda tossed him just becuase look at how many derby horses he has lost to over the past few months

[Cardus]

First off Smarty Cide- great user name :ThmbUp:

I can only speak for myself and what has won
for me in the past except the last 2 years
is I have my contenders just from the entries and
then I narrow down the plays which I only wager to win
by using the bsf, by using the last 3 races each of my contenders
have run and adding the numbers and playing the best of the numbers.

Past winners cashed on:
Street sense
Barbaro
Giacomo
Smarty Jones
Funny Cide
Monarchos
Charismatic
Real Quiet
Silver Charm

theres more as I had every winner also dating back to 91.

Some of the winners were logical , some maybe a stretch,
but the bsf do help as a guide to eliminate.

As of thus writing I'll do this years derby.

I have 9 contenders, but after doing the work I
have narrowed the field down to 4.

Sidneys Candy
Dublin
Jackson Bend
Super Saver

All to win , various amounts depending on the ml.

This is only my way of doing it. ;)

This is very funny!

I am now finished handicapping the Derby, thanks.

[46zilzal]

FINAL time tells on e NOTHING about how that time was accomplished and without that knowledge, they are useless.

[Trotman]

"WOW" then I just know you had REDBOARD :lol: :lol:

[Niko]

FINAL time tells on e NOTHING about how that time was accomplished and without that knowledge, they are useless.

Thanks for another informative post

[motorhead]

derby is such a crapshoot

but best last beyer has done pretty well over the last 10 plus years

some at serious prices

[46zilzal]

Thanks for another informative post
Horse A runs 111.2 to a final time of 143.0
Horse B runs 112 to a final time of 143.0
Horse C runs a 112.3 to a final time of 143.0


GIVE ME the first one every time as they are not the same. but final time, the basis of a Beyer would be no different.

[WinterTriangle]

I glance at them at the last minute.

Beyer speeds are great, but if your horse can't get the distance, it doesn't really matter how *fast* he gets to 8F, does it? :D

[rastajenk]

No, but it matters how fast he can get to 9f, which is what all the final preps are. Look at how often the leader at the eighth pole in Derbies past either pulls away or maintains his lead to get the win; happens more often than not.

And, uh, Zillyman, thanks for the insight into 'capping a 8.5f race; although the relevance, if any, is difficult to fathom.

[Niko]

Horse A runs 111.2 to a final time of 143.0
Horse B runs 112 to a final time of 143.0
Horse C runs a 112.3 to a final time of 143.0


GIVE ME the first one every time as they are not the same. but final time, the basis of a Beyer would be no different.

I agree pace plays a part and I'm not going to get into a speed thread here, there's been enough recently. Before I picked A every time I'd want to know the race shape, any bias that day or today, the form cycle etc etc...

But I'd usually take a horse that ran a BSF of 90 instead of 85 so I don't consider them useless.

I knew what you were trying to say but I guess after seeing so many of your posts I just reacted to another post that said something while saying nothing instead of letting it slide. Not referring to all your posts....

I'm perfect by the way... :lol:

[Niko]

No, but it matters how fast he can get to 9f, which is what all the final preps are. Look at how often the leader at the eighth pole in Derbies past either pulls away or maintains his lead to get the win; happens more often than not.

And, uh, Zillyman, thanks for the insight into 'capping a 8.5f race; although the relevance, if any, is difficult to fathom.

For what it's worth I agree. I throw out almost all horses that aren't semi-consistently in a winning position at the stretch in their Derby preps.

[skate]

What do you like about dublin, i kinda tossed him just becuase look at how many derby horses he has lost to over the past few months

just might be his advantage

[hogan6]

And you didn't have Big Brown using this method? But, had Giacomo?

[JPinMaryland]

Didnt Giacomo run a 100 or a 99 in one of his races as two year old? I remember I was about to toss him then I saw that and left him on for a place bet.

[bisket]

for those interested on how andy beyer sees the derby heres a transcript from his chat the other day. this was on tuesday before the draw.
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/kentucky-derby-chats-beyer.html
anyone interested in the other chats heres the transcripts
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/kentucky-derby-chats.html

[Niko]

Thanks, was surprised by all the support for Stately Victor.

Not that's he's a bad bet for those that like him, just surprised that two of the three like him