Beyer on Derby decisions...

[joanied]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/26/AR2010042601855.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns

Food for thought, and IMO, a good article...he also adds a little something about last years field:
"Last year, after one entrant was scratched, a total of 19 horses started in the Derby. Of them, 16 did not win a race for the remainder of the year. Six didn't race more than once. Promising colts regressed and couldn't regain their form after their Derby venture. It is understandable that almost any owner and trainer wants to experience the excitement of the Kentucky Derby, but it is an experience that often comes at a high price."

Amazing stat...be interesting to see how many of this Derby feilds go on to do well.

[Riley]

well I'd double check those stats, others in that article are wrong lol

but really I think over all he makes some good points in that article. It seems to be a broader commentary on racing in general that young horses (colts) are being pushed too fast to win some big races as three year olds and then are being retired too early before they can really get a career going so they can make some fast bucks in the breeding shed. So whether the Kentucky Derby caused them to regress in and of itself or their trainers/owners just weren't that interested in running them afterwards is hard to say. I myself find it difficult to believe one race could cause so many horses to be unable to regain their form. Maybe if their owners gave them more than a couple of races afterwards they would have been fine?

[gm10]

Some sensible insights. Though I strongly disagree with his view on Stately Victor. That's my longshot selection for the Derby.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"regressed" needs more study.
I find it interesting that when a horse wins the Derby at say, 8-1 or longer odds and is berated as undesrving and just lucky by raciing players and experts, that connections start believing theirs cannot win vs. lousier colts, geldings, and females in TC races and start thinking about stud fees.
I can just imagine what will happen if one of the large majority of Ky Derby runners this year who have run 3 times or more on turf or Plubber surfaces win it! WOW! Talk about shooting ourselves in the foot!!
Maiden winners. stateberd winners, Canadian winnerss, low Beyers figure winners screwing up our biggest race!LOL!!
IMHO, everyone including Andy Beyer should get behind the top speed rating horse, who only ran on REAL DIRT (Endorsement), and then applaud and lift on a pedestal whoever the actual winner is!! :lol:

[RXB]

I'll go one further than Beyer: where he says, "Yet the reasons for caution about running in the Derby are the same as they were in Charlie Whittingham's era," I say the need for caution should be even more pronounced as fewer of the animals today are bred for 10f, particularly at such an early juncture of their development.

But as he notes, the Derby has become the be-all-end-all. This is a huge mistake for the sport as a whole.

[joanied]

I don't have the time or inclination to check Beyer's stats for that article...I agree with some of what he wrote, don't for some other stuff...but I did think it an interesting read...and it does make one wonder about how one race (Derby) can ruin a horse...I just don't see it...and I don't think one can compare today's training methods, and horses, for those of the Whittingham era...I do beleive that the best way to keep a horse healthy & fit is to run them more often...maybe some of the problem with why so many Derby horses don't do well after the TC series is because the trainers choose to give them a rest...so they go from one extreme ( Derby at a new distance & circumstance, racing 2 wks later, then the riggers of 1 1/2 miles)...then after all that, it's R&R...so physically, and really mentally also, it, for lack of a better word, confuses the horse and it's body...then they gear them up again for a late summer/fall campaign...when what the trainer should do, at least with a healthy, sound colt...is to allow him a couple of weeks, then run him again...which will keep him physically & mentally fit.....sorta like what Riley said in his post.

I do know this...ssems to me all 'they' care about anymore is winning one of the TC races, the Travers, Met Mile, Stephen Foster and a BC race...seems not many more races matter anymore...I really, really wish 'they' would bring back the Handicap TC with huge purse money...bet that might get at least some 3 yr olds to come back the next year.