VALUE BETS-NEED A MATH GUY

[HUSKER55]

I am curious about value bets. Looking for a horse going off at odds higher than it should.


I am curious, suppose the public has 4 horses in a race at less than 4 to 1 and your pick is going off at 10 to 1 but you feel it should be 5:1 in an 8 horse field


if you bet that horse don't you have a 20% chance at a 10% strike.

The field is less than 4:1 which is 20% and your horse is about 10% so don't you really only have a 2% chance of winning against the field?

Could someone that does a good job of creating line odds provide a simple way of figuring that.

does the value of the other horses even enter the picture?

aNY BOOKS ON THIS TOPIC THAT MIGHT ASSIST ME?

thank you guys

[formula_2002]

I am curious about value bets. Looking for a horse going off at odds higher than it should.


I am curious, suppose the public has 4 horses in a race at less than 4 to 1 and your pick is going off at 10 to 1 but you feel it should be 5:1 in an 8 horse field


if you bet that horse don't you have a 20% chance at a 10% strike.

The field is less than 4:1 which is 20% and your horse is about 10% so don't you really only have a 2% chance of winning against the field?

Could someone that does a good job of creating line odds provide a simple way of figuring that.

does the value of the other horses even enter the picture?

aNY BOOKS ON THIS TOPIC THAT MIGHT ASSIST ME?

thank you guys
If you think the horse's odds are 5-1, then accordinly, he has a 16% chance of winning (1/(odds+1), regardless the field size and regardless what the odds on the other horses may be.
Warning. my experience has been that no matter what odds I make the horse, in the long run, the horse wins closer to the public probability.

[HUSKER55]

Thanks for the response. I appreciate you taking the time to help.

[kenwoodallpromos]

4 at 4:1 means the public has no idea; bet longshots!