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View Full Version : Too Many Front Runners


Smarty Cide
04-26-2010, 08:32 PM
There are just way too many front runners. Endorsement, Conveyance, American Lion, Super Saver, Discreetly Mine, Line Of David, Sidney's Candy....

How is that going to play out?

sandpit
04-26-2010, 08:41 PM
Good question, by your count, which looks reasonable, one of the front runners is going to be in :7: th at best right from the break. It's "Impazible" to tell which one that might be. The draw will play huge in determining strategy.

By the way, in case this hasn't been mentioned here, the post position draw is going back to the traditional format. No more of that silly, no-drama :2: - tiered approach. Draw is at noon on Wednesday.

kenwoodallpromos
04-26-2010, 09:27 PM
Some of those front runners ran much faster times on the dirt than Plubber, like 46.+; A few, like Endorsement, ran around 48.+ opening quarters on the dirt.

OFFandRUNNING10
04-26-2010, 09:32 PM
There are just way too many front runners. Endorsement, Conveyance, American Lion, Super Saver, Discreetly Mine, Line Of David, Sidney's Candy....

How is that going to play out?

Impossible to say for sure...I think post positions may clear some of this mess up. if i had to take my guess I would say something like...

I think early it will be Conveyance and Line of David are running 1-2 side by side in front... Followed by Discreetly Mine and American Lion... I think Endorsement , Super Saver, Sidneys Candy, Paddy Oprado will sit grouped just behind these together stalking. I think this "second grouping" is where stuff is going to get bottled up quite a bit. Jackson bend, Homeboykris, Mission Impazible, Looking at Lucky, will all be fighting for good position in this area to. Very possible one, two, three of these get shuffled back deep in the mix and get themselves into quite a big hole.

I think American Lion is more naturally suited to not run as quick early but I think if wants any shot he is going to have to push early and try to grind out the front runners and hold off anyone closing on them at the end because I do not think he has the speed to catch and pass.

Who knows... thats my 100% complete guess...take it for what its worth which is probably nothing lol

Smarty Cide
04-26-2010, 09:36 PM
who was the last horse to go gate to wire in the derby?

Dahoss9698
04-26-2010, 09:41 PM
who was the last horse to go gate to wire in the derby?

War Emblem in 2002. Hard Spun (2008) and Lion Heart (2004) ran 2nd after leading for most of the race.

OFFandRUNNING10
04-26-2010, 09:41 PM
who was the last horse to go gate to wire in the derby?

War Emblem 2002?

Niko
04-26-2010, 10:00 PM
I think Baffert sends Conveyance with Lookin at Lucky in the race...but post position will dictate strategy for all. Who knows, maybe they'll all out think themselves and early pace won't be too demanding.

No other horse other than Conveyance has run faster than par for the second fraction according to Bris.

Smarty Cide
04-27-2010, 06:52 PM
Conveyance is a fast horse, thats for sure, and he is going to have the clearest path since he will be right out front