does american lion have the stamina to win the derby?

[bisket]

heres the pps for the derby from drf
http://drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/contenders/pps/042010_derby_contenders.pdf
lets look at american lion's preps in california. he backed up in the stretch on 2 occasions when racing against sidney's candy and caracortado. many times when i see something like this in a derby contender's line. this horse would be an almost immediate toss, but lets look a little deeper. lets analyze american lion's workout schedule along with sid's. although lets go a little further back then what's available in the pps. heres a workout search for both horses from drf
american lion
http://drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/contenders/pps/042010_derby_contenders.pdf
sidney's candy
http://drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/contenders/pps/042010_derby_contenders.pdf
look at all of american lions works leading into his 3 preps. all are light maintenance type works. there are no stamina building works (6furs in 12 second furlongs), and he backed up in his 2 preps in the stretch. a horse with this workout line will be hard pressed to be in the winner's circle going a route in a stakes race. in lion's third race he popped a good one. 98 beyer. harty was building the horse's stamina in the races, and not in the mornings.
now lets look at sid
a steady diet of stamina inducing works for all 3 preps, and the horse popped good races every time. thats not a surprise is it. since his main competition in one of them was american lion who would have been hard pressed to challenge sid in the stretch because of lion's workout sched. on top of that sid has been asked for hard works in the mornings and raced in top form for the past 3 months. heres the 5k$ question:
are sid's best efforts behind him, and is american lion's best efforts in front of him?
and the other question that needs to be answered:
did american lion improve because he got away from sid and the other colts in california?
i'll add one thing to this. lets remember what happened last year when a certain colt left california and raced in new york and ran his eyeballs out twice. fortunately for da bisket american lion ran in chicago so he's not on anybodies radar$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[bisket]

i want to add i still like ice box and lucky for my exacta box, but i'm rolling this around right now for the tri box

[only11]

i want to add i still like ice box and lucky for my exacta box, but i'm rolling this around right now for the tri box
my keys horses are Ice Box and Statley Victor...
Ice Box will be a underlay...my NOW horse is Statley Victory..

[bisket]

good grief!! heres the workout search for american lion
http://drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=07005970
sidney's candy
http://drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=07000989
:blush:

[Riley]

With Tiznow colts I think there's a lot of room for maturation and improvement but looking at his last two works and last race alone I wouldn't pick him for the Derby.

[WinterTriangle]

horses get their stamina from genetics. American Lion is resting on the cutoff point for me.... but for a nice longshot to fill out a super or tri, I say go for it, esp. if it rains.

He's got a decent amount of stamina on the sire side, Tiznow did win 3 at 1-1/4. And Colonel John, Well Armed, DaTara could run classic distances. Dam was a sprinter (Storm Tide). Broodmare sire Storm Cat has only produced one winner on dirt at 10F. His other 2 who won at 10F+ were on turf. 2nd damsire is Carson City---more speed influence. A stamina to speed index of over 1.00 is not good, he scrapes by with around 0.98. You can see that in his profile, brilliant/intermediate points are higher, with 0-0 for the solid and professional, which is where the stamina lies. I see no *notable* siblings.

He's gotten 8.5 no problem on Pro ride, and I have to believe his 9F race in ILL showed he can get to at least 9F and that he does like dirt (not unusual for Tiznows) so he's not turfy like some of the progeny. He can also run in slop. Not sure he will make it to 10F though.

Most of these horses have so many major knocks against them, so I say go for it, bisket. His main problem is being distance-challenged. But not as badly as Conveyance, Jackson, Nobles, IMHO. :)

[sandpit]

I'm sure it's been said before, but a huge key in this race is how the horses take to training at CD; and American Lion has taken to this track as good as any horse with the exception of Lookin At Lucky. Harty may have not won a Derby, but he was around Baffert long enough to know how to get there.

[WinterTriangle]

I'm sure it's been said before, but a huge key in this race is how the horses take to training at CD; and American Lion has taken to this track as good as any horse with the exception of Lookin At Lucky. Harty may have not won a Derby, but he was around Baffert long enough to know how to get there.

More favorable things for bisket's wager. I hope it works out well, I don't consider him a toss toss like some of 'em...he's still hanging around on mine

[Dahoss9698]

American Lion has a very good shot










....at finishing 15th.

[WinterTriangle]

....at finishing 15th.

Well, I thought that about one of your horses......RULE. except I put him at 19th. ;)

You're commenting on other's longshots, and bisket put his out for appraisal.......who might be on your ticket, or exotics, Dahoss?

[Rackon]

Rule wasn't on my Derby list - I just didn't think he'd get the mile and a quarter.

I suspect American Lion may get the distance - but is he fast enough *now*? Looks like, based on breeding and pps, he may be a late maturing type.

None of 'em have gone a mile and a quarter, much less in a 20 horse stampede.

[Dahoss9698]

Well, I thought that about one of your horses......RULE. except I put him at 19th. ;)

You're commenting on other's longshots, and bisket put his out for appraisal.......who might be on your ticket, or exotics, Dahoss?

A better question might be who do you plan on putting on your mythical tickets? At this point I think you have mentioned the entire field, so you are bound to be right about one of them.

I won't have any of my tickets made up until I see the posts and track condition. I've never put a lot of money into the Derby, even when I have really liked a horse. But, I liked Sidney's Candy to win the Derby before the San Felipe (we discussed it, I hope it's okay to mention it) and he has done nothing to change my opinion on him. I won't be betting him to win, especially considering Esky being out has dropped his price a lot.

I do try and get live to a few horses in pick 3's or 4's into the Derby and that is probably how I will play the race. I want to be live to Sidney's Candy, Ice Box, Super Saver and maybe Stately Victor. If Ice Box is 15-1 maybe I'll bet a little to win on him, and I will probably bet some exactas with Sidney's Candy and Ice Box on top of some longshots.

[WinterTriangle]

A better question might be who do you plan on putting on your mythical tickets? At this point I think you have mentioned the entire field, so you are bound to be right about one of them.

You are correct. I have talked about many of the horses on their road to the KY Derby.

What I like, and what I don't like....all thru the entire prep season. This is, after all, a discussion forum.

If you see a topic where i've picked my horses for my KY Derby ticket, let me know, because I don't even know yet. :p

GL with your tentative selections. They look like they have a shot, mythical or otherwise. This year it looks pretty wide open.

I will probably play 3 tickets. One will use traditional handicapping, another using purely a pedigree angle (it might be a bit bizzare), and a third will be a group wager..... from family and friends. I've made this a tradition. They don't gamble or have access to gambling, so I always play *one* ticket for each TC race based on what my 84 year old mom, brothers, and best friend pick----none of them know how to read a pp. Like many people, they help put $ into the pools on KY Derby Day playing their favorite names, numbers, etc.

I got them into doing this so that they have a horse to ROOT FOR while watching the race on TV. Gives them something to jump up and down about while it's on. :) Even my 8 year old nephew gives a pick....this year, it's on the undercard....he said "bet the favorite for me in the 3rd race to win or place."

[bisket]

looks like the price will be right