Nobel's Promise...in

[joanied]

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/April/26/Nobles-promise-alert.aspx

I can't wait for the draw...when the filed is set...too many 'innies' & 'outies' :D

[Niko]

Is he healthy? I thought he had some physical problems coming out of the last prep?

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Is he healthy? I thought he had some physical problems coming out of the last prep?

The cuts healed faster then the expected.

He also scoped badly after the race revealing some mucus.

He has been training well and seems over all of that. They said they were going to scope him after his last work, and if there was any indication of mucus, they were going to pull him. Since he has been announced in, I assume he scoped clear.

You can certainly still make an argument that he might be going into this not 100% though.

[WinterTriangle]

You can certainly still make an argument that he might be going into this not 100% though.

Not feeling well between your last prep and the biggest race of your life is not a good sign, is it. Not to mention his distance limitations. If you thought Taqarub could win a KY Derby, then bet him. I have him good to about 8.5F. He can run on anything though, but I'm not a fan of precocious horses, they always disappoint . Cuvee has no stakes winners.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Not feeling well between your last prep and the biggest race of your life is not a good sign, is it. Not to mention his distance limitations. If you thought Taqarub could win a KY Derby, then bet him. I have him good to about 8.5F. He can run on anything though, but I'm not a fan of precocious horses, they always disappoint . Cuvee has no stakes winners.

I wont be including him in any of my wagers. I was not high on him coming into the derby to begin with. So when you add in him coming off being sick...it made my decision easy. If he somehow beats me then so be it... thats how it goes some days

[Tee]

???????????????



Cuvee has no stakes winners.

[WinterTriangle]

???????????????

sorry, Tee, that should have read graded stakes. :)

and certainly not at the distance.

Cuvee is out of Carson City, more precocity. I know people like these sires, but I'm handicapping a classic race.

If he beats me, oh well.

[Tee]

Noble's promise is a Gr 1 winner - isn't he? :) He has outrun his pedigree thus far, I wouldn't be surprised to see a good showing out of him in the Derby.

sorry, Tee, that should have read graded stakes. :)

[Niko]

If a horse can run well at 1 1/8 I have no problem betting him at 1 1/4 -- unless he can't rate.

I was looking very closely at this horse but not sure if I can bet him even if he scoped clean-it was the lung infection I was thinking of. That has to take a bit out of you....

[RXB]

By Cuvee, out of a Clever Trick mare. That tells me his future is in sprinting. His performances in the stretch during his 8f-9f races support that view.

There are no absolutes but at 10f this guy is really up against it from a breeding perspective.

[PhantomOnTour]

He looks like a solid miler. Has that nice move off the turn that he just can't carry at 9f and beyond. One to consider underneath? He's a brawler (like Jackson Bend) and should move into contention around mid turn or so. He'll relent, but not easily.

[Market Mover]

sorry, Tee, that should have read graded stakes. :)

and certainly not at the distance.

Cuvee is out of Carson City, more precocity. I know people like these sires, but I'm handicapping a classic race.

If he beats me, oh well.


Wasn't Barbaro out of a Carson City mare? He seemed to settle pretty well in the Derby:)...

[Market Mover]

He looks like a solid miler. Has that nice move off the turn that he just can't carry at 9f and beyond. One to consider underneath? He's a brawler (like Jackson Bend) and should move into contention around mid turn or so. He'll relent, but not easily.


Noble's Promise damside has Sunyata, who's a half sister to Wings of Grace, dam of G1 winners Soaring Softly (BC filly and mare turf) and Plenty of Grace (QEII), albeit on turf.

Now Cuvee on the topside...that's a different story...

[Market Mover]

By Cuvee, out of a Clever Trick mare. That tells me his future is in sprinting. His performances in the stretch during his 8f-9f races support that view.

There are no absolutes but at 10f this guy is really up against it from a breeding perspective.


They said Distorted Humor couldn't get the distance being primarily a sprinter/miler type, and look what Funny Cide did. This is also true for Elusive Quality a la Smarty Jones...

[RXB]

In each of those cases, the horse in question was from the sire's first crop.
We have a little more data on Cuvee as a sire. His runners are showing clearly that they generally do not have a great deal of stamina and are well below the overall class of runners sired by Distorted Humor or Elusive Quality. Plus, from the PP's we can see that Noble's Promise is generally giving way in the last furlong of his route races.

But as I noted earlier, there are no absolutes. Smarty Jones notwithstanding, Elusive Quality is nonetheless very much a sprinter-miler sire and I don't like betting his runners at anything farther than 8f-8.5f. It's all about probabilities; I do not have exact knowledge. I feel quite strongly that Noble's Promise will do his best running as a sprinter-miler but I can't say that with utter certainty.

[Market Mover]

In each of those cases, the horse in question was from the sire's first crop.
We have a little more data on Cuvee as a sire. His runners are showing clearly that they generally do not have a great deal of stamina and are well below the overall class of runners sired by Distorted Humor or Elusive Quality. Plus, from the PP's we can see that Noble's Promise is generally giving way in the last furlong of his route races.

But as I noted earlier, there are no absolutes. Smarty Jones notwithstanding, Elusive Quality is nonetheless very much a sprinter-miler sire and I don't like betting his runners at anything farther than 8f-8.5f. It's all about probabilities; I do not have exact knowledge. I feel quite strongly that Noble's Promise will do his best running as a sprinter-miler but I can't say that with utter certainty.


Cuvee has a couple of runners by Clever Trick mares, but I don't know if they have won around 2 turns. Listing on pedigreequery only indicates a few starts. Nevertheless, I think Noble's Promise was a sick horse when he ran last at Oaklawn, and the sandwiched start probably did not help. This is a gutsy little animal, and you have to respect anything that Kenny McPeek brings over. He gave Lookin at Lucky a good fight in that previous Oaklawn stretch battle, and may have bounced a bit too off that effort. Moves over the CD oval effortlessly, and I can't throw him out completely because I am still trying to place him in the Derby run down the backside.

Assuming he avoids getting sandwiched and shuffled to last again, if he is behind that first flight, he could slip through and get first run when they hit that far turn...

[RXB]

I'm not saying that the horse can't put in a respectable effort. He's consistent, he's competed well against some of the tougher competition in the race and he can be rated off the pace, which is going to be a good thing, I'm pretty sure.

I have a hard time seeing him winning. The Derby is usually won with power in the last 1/4 mile and with all of the expected early pace this year, I expect that to be the case again. Noble's Promise has not been showing strong late power in his route races, nor does he figure to relish the added distance.

[Market Mover]

I'm not saying that the horse can't put in a respectable effort. He's consistent, he's competed well against some of the tougher competition in the race and he can be rated off the pace, which is going to be a good thing, I'm pretty sure.

I have a hard time seeing him winning. The Derby is usually won with power in the last 1/4 mile and with all of the expected early pace this year, I expect that to be the case again. Noble's Promise has not been showing strong late power in his route races, nor does he figure to relish the added distance.


Real Quiet did not show much late power in his Derby. Kent D. opened him up on that far turn and assumed the lead at the top of the stretch. He was on the wrong lead and still managed to hang on to win. He fell into the finish line, as opposed to showing that late burst...

Winning Colors led all the way and staggered home in front of a fast closing Forty Niner. Not much late speed there...

My point is that not all Derbies are won with horses making that big burst like FuPeg or Big Brown or Barbaro. Especially in fields where there are no obvious standouts, the horse that gets the best trip and blows the race open at the top of the stretch can sometimes hang on as the closers get the staggers going that mile and a quarter for the first time. I think Noble's Promise can get a mile and an eighth. And I think if Willie gets him a smooth trip, and run this Derby like it's a mile and a eighth, he can leave them with a lot to do come that last quarter...while obvious closers like Lookin at Lucky et al are fighting traffic trouble, he'd be long gone...

If it's wet, I'd prefer to take those runners behind the first flight anyways. Like Smarty Jones who stalked Lion Heart all the way around, and they went 1-2 in the mud. Late power often does not fire when that mud comes slinging in their faces and they're gasping for air that last quarter mile...

Would you think Noble's Promise's chances move up on a wet track?

[WinterTriangle]

They said Distorted Humor couldn't get the distance being primarily a sprinter/miler type, and look what Funny Cide did. This is also true for Elusive Quality a la Smarty Jones...

There was way more going on with Smarty Jone's pedigree picture than Elusive Quality. He has a very interesting profile, and was *perfect* to win the derby.

Don't have time to talk about it now, but we can after the weekend.

TEE---yes, noble's is a Graded stakes winner. the only one.

[RXB]

Real Quiet did not show much late power in his Derby. Kent D. opened him up on that far turn and assumed the lead at the top of the stretch. He was on the wrong lead and still managed to hang on to win. He fell into the finish line, as opposed to showing that late burst...

Winning Colors led all the way and staggered home in front of a fast closing Forty Niner. Not much late speed there...

My point is that not all Derbies are won with horses making that big burst like FuPeg or Big Brown or Barbaro. Especially in fields where there are no obvious standouts, the horse that gets the best trip and blows the race open at the top of the stretch can sometimes hang on as the closers get the staggers going that mile and a quarter for the first time. I think Noble's Promise can get a mile and an eighth. And I think if Willie gets him a smooth trip, and run this Derby like it's a mile and a eighth, he can leave them with a lot to do come that last quarter...while obvious closers like Lookin at Lucky et al are fighting traffic trouble, he'd be long gone...

If it's wet, I'd prefer to take those runners behind the first flight anyways. Like Smarty Jones who stalked Lion Heart all the way around, and they went 1-2 in the mud. Late power often does not fire when that mud comes slinging in their faces and they're gasping for air that last quarter mile...

Would you think Noble's Promise's chances move up on a wet track?

Those are the exceptions to the rule.

Winning Colors set moderate fractions and was never challenged until the 1/16th pole. She also had the best figures going into the race, so it's no surprise she won.

Real Quiet made a quick burst on the turn after the leaders went fairly fast early, yes. And then held on. It worked that day but I wouldn't recommend it. Also, Real Quiet was coming off of a strong final fraction in the SA Derby where he closed some ground on Indian Charlie.

Lion Heart got an easy lead, Smarty Jones had an easy trip tracking him without pressure, they had the race to themselves, and the clearly superior horse won.

Normally, however, the Derby pace figure exceeds the speed figure and I certainly expect that to be the case this year. I expect the winning move to come in the lane, quite possibly in the final 1/8th. At 10f, I don't think that Noble's Promise will be able to sustain his move long enough to win, even on a wet track that would probably move him up. I don't think he's going to run miserably, I just think that he will be too tired in the stretch.

I doubt that I will be betting the race as I'm not really high on any horse, and the probable race favourite (Lookin At Lucky) is the horse that I give the best chance to finish in the money.

[miesque]

He looks like a solid miler. Has that nice move off the turn that he just can't carry at 9f and beyond. One to consider underneath? He's a brawler (like Jackson Bend) and should move into contention around mid turn or so. He'll relent, but not easily.

This is pretty much my perspective as well. I think both Jackson Bend and Noble's Promise have been running at the upper limit of their optimal distance and their talent and heart (especially in Jackson Bend's case, that horse has serious tenacity and I admire that) have enabled them to perform admirably. In addition, with every year there are less and less horses with stamina heavy pedigrees so it the task is a little easier. However, the increase from 9 to 10 furlongs may not seem like much but its pretty significant, especially with that long stretch at Churchill.

By the way, if you want to take a look at a pedigree that can really run all day (and there really are not that many in here who truly can from my definition which is 12 furlongs, not 10 furlongs), take a look at Paddy O'Prado a son of El Prado (Saddler's Wells) out of a Prized mare (who won the BC Turf in his first start on turf).

http://www.pedigreequery.com/paddy+oprado

[joanied]

Regardless of how Paddy runs in the Derby/Preakness...he is going to be very tough in the Belmont...if we have a TC on the line, he can very well spoil the party.

[PhantomOnTour]

Regardless of how Paddy runs in the Derby/Preakness...he is going to be very tough in the Belmont...if we have a TC on the line, he can very well spoil the party.
Being eligible for an Alwn1x, I will not use Paddy O'Prado on top. Giacomo had only one win to his credit before the Derby, but that must be a rarity... a real rarity. Plus, he's getting a lot of pub and he will be an underlay in my book at anything less than 25 or 30-1. His best races come when he's up close to the pace and that may not be the place to be on Saturday.