Sleepers & Tosses

[Smarty Cide]

I like Rule as a sleeper, if he is even considered one but maybe can get like 12 or 15-1, maybe even 30-1... Id like those odds. The horse runs consistant good BSF's. Its so wide open now that Esky's out....

[Dahoss9698]

I like Rule as a sleeper, if he is even considered one but maybe can get like 12 or 15-1... Id like those odds. The horse runs consistant good BSF's. Its so wide open now that Esky's out....

I agree in regards to Rule. He ran the best race in the Florida Derby, but would need to show that he can rate.

I have also seen that HRTV has said he is currently on the fence for the race. Should be an interesting week.

[only11]

Stately Victor...my sleeper....throw out any pletcher horse..

[theveep]

Jackson Bend is my sleeper. He has competed against top class and he's shown a lot of potential on the dirt. We'll see how a new rider will work.

Lou

[Grits]

Toss Lukas' Dublin.

Only horse on the grounds who fully understands the terms:

BOLT, DRIFT, and OH HELL FORGET IT.

And the only one with two workout attempts, one complete, inside 24 hours. What a mess.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112448.html (Saturday's work.)

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112472.html (Sunday's trying again.)

[Smarty Cide]

Tosses:

Line of David, Nobles Promise, Mission Impazible, endorsment, dublin, deans kitten, interactif, paddy o prado, home boy chris, backtalk

i almost want to toss ice box, but im not going to yet

[GaryG]

Toss American Lion, Discreetly Mine, Exhi, Line Of David, Mission Impazible, Rule, Sidney's Candy and Super Saver.

[soupman2]

Gary- kind of curious. I usually agree with your choices (agree with your toss's except.....) Sidneys Candy. Why are you not on him. He is one of my picks.

Bob

[theveep]

I also don't trust the Sidney's synthetic niche. I would be inclined to toss as well.

[NTamm1215]

I'm tossing Sidney's Candy, Dean's Kitten, Paddy O'Prado, and Discreetly Mine.

I feel like Mission Impazible is going somewhat under the radar.

NT

[RXB]

Can I toss the whole field? :)

I don't really like any of these horses. I think the race will set up best for off-pace types but I'm hanged if I can figure out which one. Lookin At Lucky is probably the most likely to be in the money but since he's now the probable favourite, that's not going to get me anywhere.

I just saw the early PP's; please note that the second call position and beaten lengths for Mission Impazible in the La Derby is incorrect. It says he was 7th/4.5 but in fact he was laying 3rd or 4th and about 2 lengths off the pace.

[jbrown007]

I'm really surprised people seem fit to toss super saver. The horse has only two races under his belt this year. He not only improved in his last but he rated for pretty much the first time in his career. The horse ran a monster race first time around two turns at churchill downs which is a huge plus(See denis the cork, street sense,limehouse(4th),cliffs edge (5th)) Also he gets calvin borel to ride and he is the best derby jockey there is=fearless. People complain that he couldn't pass line of david but remember it was his first time rating and line got loose on the lead which will not happen in the derby. he also got away with some slow middle fractions going 110^3 to 136^2 which is close to a 26 second clip(very slow). I think he is going to run huge if he doesn't get a shitty post and can stay away from the hot pace(he is the only proven front runner to try and rate)

[philofbelloni]

Jackson Bend is my sleeper. He has competed against top class and he's shown a lot of potential on the dirt. We'll see how a new rider will work.

Lou
The first 1/2 mile looks like a suicidal pace with up to 10 horses gunning for the front. I'm banking on a 22-22.3 first 1/4 with no more than a :23.2 second quarter. This race will set up super for both JB and Ice Box provided the first half comes in under 46 seconds. Adding Lucky for a tri box. I'll factor Devil May Care provided she skips the Oaks. The gals have been carrying the thoroughbred storyline for the past year. Just a hunch.

Tossing Stately Victor (uninspiring on dirt), Dublin (either creates his own trouble or doesn't fire), Conveyance/American Lion/SuperSaver/LineofDavid/Rule(if not raining)/SidneyCandy (all pure speed and will kill themselves for lead). Note that Sidney's Candy's 46KAlw in Dec scared me off of him. He was 4th at the 1/2 mile mark and just gave up. If he does end up with the Derby lead, I'm not sure he can sustain the pace given he's only run 9 furlongs once.

A few others simply don't belong in the field...Homeboykris/Interactif/Backtalk.

[cj's dad]

I agree in regards to Rule. He ran the best race in the Florida Derby, but would need to show that he can rate.

I have also seen that HRTV has said he is currently on the fence for the race. Should be an interesting week.

Odd statement in as much as he ran third !!

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I think distance is a major issue in the derby for Rule. He is going to be a toss for me. I do not think he will be able to finish out well with the early pressure and added distance.

[miesque]

Well it appears that Rule has been ruled out of the Derby along with Interactif (the later of which I am happy about because I there are a lot of turf races down the road which would more suitable fits)

http://drf.com/news/article/112487.html

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I am not surprised by either. However I am bummed. I hate when my "tosses" dont run. Now backtalk and Jackson Bend are in which I need to consider now.

[miesque]

The last three horses to draw (Homeboykris, Jackson Bend, Backtalk) plus the filly are tosses for me so nothing has really changed as far as my projected Derby strategy.

[gales0678]

throw the filly out at your own risk

[Dahoss9698]

Odd statement in as much as he ran third !!

Not really that odd if you watch the race. He did all the dirty work and was still there late. Doesn't matter now anyway.

[magwell]

As of today I have 3 still standing Lucky, Candy and maybe the filly.....:cool:

[OFFandRUNNING10]

The last three horses to draw (Homeboykris, Jackson Bend, Backtalk) plus the filly are tosses for me so nothing has really changed as far as my projected Derby strategy.

I am not definitely going to include backtalk or jackson bend...however as of now they are deserving of consideration for me. I didnt spend much time looking at them. I know jackson bend has impressed a lot of people on this board. I havent been to impressed though. I will take a second look though since so many people seem to be considering him.

Devil may care does have my attention though.

[cj's dad]

throw the filly out at your own risk


Shhhhh !!!!

Let them - she's a dog !!

[point given]

Shhhhh !!!!

Let them - she's a dog !!

I heard she is gonna run in army boots, doesn't have a prayer .:lol:

[miesque]

I am not definitely going to include backtalk or jackson bend...however as of now they are deserving of consideration for me. I didnt spend much time looking at them. I know jackson bend has impressed a lot of people on this board. I havent been to impressed though. I will take a second look though since so many people seem to be considering him.

Devil may care does have my attention though.

When a filly steps up and faces Grade I males with no previous experience in open copmany, I want to see a very solid set of past performances which are dominating against her own gender as well as a good amount of seasoning and experience. While Devil May Care had a nice race last out, one race is not enough to throw a filly into a Classic or Breeders Cup race against males. In Devil May Care's case you only have to go back one race prior to see what can only be described as a debacle. A great example is the last female I did use in my Derby wagers, which was Eight Belles had been crushing her competition much in the way Rachel did prior to last years Oaks and she had a solid amount of experience under her belt and about twice the experience what Devil May Care has. Basically I get the feeling that most are on the Devil May Care bandwagon because of her last race and one race with a great speed figure is not near sufficient enough for me for the Kentucky Derby start for a filly, especially considering the ducking in the strech in that race Devil May Care did in the stretch and her poor performance at the Fair Grounds prior (where you was the heavy fave at 80 cents on the dollar I might add). Those are her only two starts in 2010. One nice race that had a good set up and a total debacle at less than even money. Also fractious in the gate two starts back is not viewed as a plus by me going into the hoopla that is the Kentucky Derby. Lastly, I think she will get a decent amount of money being a filly, especially now that Run Like A Girl is all the rage. If she was 30-1 or 40-1 that would be one thing, but at likely less than 10-1 I want no part of her and I have seen some project she may be the third or fourth choice which is ridiculous from my perspective.

[point given]

When a filly steps up and faces Grade I males with no previous experience in open copmany, I want to see a very solid set of past performances which are dominating against her own gender as well as a good amount of seasoning and experience. While Devil May Care had a nice race last out, one race is not enough to throw a filly into a Classic or Breeders Cup race against males. In Devil May Care's case you only have to go back one race prior to see what can only be described as a debacle. A great example is the last female I did use in my Derby wagers, which was Eight Belles had been crushing her competition much in the way Rachel did prior to last years Oaks and she had a solid amount of experience under her belt and about twice the experience what Devil May Care has. Basically I get the feeling that most are on the Devil May Care bandwagon because of her last race and one race with a great speed figure is not near sufficient enough for me for the Kentucky Derby start for a filly, especially considering the ducking in the strech in that race Devil May Care did in the stretch and her poor performance at the Fair Grounds prior (where you was the heavy fave at 80 cents on the dollar I might add). Those are her only two starts in 2010. One nice race that had a good set up and a total debacle at less than even money. Also fractious in the gate two starts back is not viewed as a plus by me going into the hoopla that is the Kentucky Derby. Lastly, I think she will get a decent amount of money being a filly, especially now that Run Like A Girl is all the rage. If she was 30-1 or 40-1 that would be one thing, but at likely less than 10-1 I want no part of her and I have seen some project she may be the third or fourth choice which is ridiculous from my perspective.

Very salient points you made. I don't know where you are reading that she will be 3rd or 4th choice at less than 10/1 though. I think she will be somewhere in between 30/1 and 10/1. People will most likely use her underneath in the exotics and not on top. The ducking in thing bothers me a bit though too.

[ezrabrooks]

When I see the topic of 'tosses' in major races...I remember my big toss in the 99 BC Classic....Cat Thief. At the sixteenth pole every body in the room reminded me...and since then, I never make my tosses public..

[Market Mover]

Here are some interesting "angles" when all else fails:

Baffert does better in Derbies where he's training horses with two-word names. See Silver Charm. Real Quiet. War Emblem. This year he has Lookin At Lucky. Nope, I count three words there. Sorry. Toss.

Zito does better in Derbies where he's training horses with three-word names. See Strike The Gold. Go For Gin. This year he has Ice Box and Jackson Bend. Nope, I count two words there. Sorry. Toss.

Not that this narrows it down any, but if you take these horses out of the win slot on your tickets, it could narrow the cost a bit.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I would be pretty shocked if she goes off at 10-1 or less. Even Eight Belles was like 13-1 or something. I thought Eight Belles was a pretty easy pick in that race compared to Devil May Care in this race. I expect her around the 20-1 range.

I am not saying that she has a great shot at winning ... however I think she ISN'T worthy of a "toss". At this point, I would be a bit surprised to see her come out on top but not at all surprised by her hitting the board.

[dodgevadar]

I really hope Setsuko makes his way into the field somehow.

[cj's dad]

her poor performance at the Fair Grounds prior.

She had much difficulty loading and the assistant starters used "tongs" to pull her into the gate.

She was a basket case after that and could be the reason she ran poorly.

As far as ducking in in the Bonnie miss, she wouldn't change leads. She did change leads just before the wire.

I'll take my chances.

[miesque]

She had much difficulty loading and the assistant starters used "tongs" to pull her into the gate.

She was a basket case after that and could be the reason she ran poorly.

As far as ducking in in the Bonnie miss, she wouldn't change leads. She did change leads just before the wire.

I'll take my chances.

Thanks for the more detailed information, I thought she had a meltdown but couldn't remember if I was thinking of the right incident. That actually makes me feel even more convinced I am making the right decision to toss her for a race like the Kentucky Derby. This is a great example on how different horseplayers can look at the same data and come to very different conclusions. And I wish you Good Luck with her. :)

[johnhannibalsmith]

Tosses:

... endorsment...

Is this one still running? I know Ritter says he missed his work because of the track, but I keep hearing that he's been missing more than just works in the morning...

[Niko]

Here are some interesting "angles" when all else fails:

Baffert does better in Derbies where he's training horses with two-word names. See Silver Charm. Real Quiet. War Emblem. This year he has Lookin At Lucky. Nope, I count three words there. Sorry. Toss.

Zito does better in Derbies where he's training horses with three-word names. See Strike The Gold. Go For Gin. This year he has Ice Box and Jackson Bend. Nope, I count two words there. Sorry. Toss.

Not that this narrows it down any, but if you take these horses out of the win slot on your tickets, it could narrow the cost a bit.

I like it, got any more like this

[Riley]

Is this one still running? I know Ritter says he missed his work because of the track, but I keep hearing that he's been missing more than just works in the morning...

The report was he jogged this morning but he looked a little shaky
http://www.drf.com/news/article/112486.html

I'll guess we'll have to wait until Wednesday when he is suppose to have his last work to see. Smells a little fishy though.

[WinterTriangle]

Miesque, agree with you about the filly, now that I've had more time to evaluate her. Liked her for the Oaks though. Hopefully Pletch doesn't run her in the derby, I think he's just doing that to keep somebody else out.

Glad Rule is out. I tossed him before I even made my 2nd derby list. :p Terribly wrong running style for this, sire's progeny wins at this distance? ZERO. Broodmare sire's progeny wins at this distance.....ONE. Severe distance limitations. His little stamina-challenged legs were quivering after the fl derby, staggering. But I do think he's a fighter, and would wager him in any other race!

Love Interactif and breeding, but definitely a turfer.

I'd take some of the nice longshots posted here, like stately victor, misson impaz or paddy for my exotics, before I'd take endorsement and noble's promise... for my money.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Miesque, agree with you about the filly, now that I've had more time to evaluate her. Liked her for the Oaks though. Hopefully Pletch doesn't run her in the derby, I think he's just doing that to keep somebody else out.

Pletcher is definitely not entering her to keep someone else out. He is going to run her for sure. He has already come out and said he will not cross entry her in both the oaks and derby. No way he would skips out on both races...makes no sense unless she was injured.

Also if he was trying to keep other horses out he would have kept Rule and Interactif in for the entry and then not run them. None of that adds up

[sandpit]

I guess the Rule discussion is moot since he is definitely out, ditto for Interactif.

Tosses: Noble's Promise, Line of David, Stately Victor, Endorsement, Dublin, Dean's Kitten, Paddy O'Prado, Homeboykris (top last place candidate), Backtalk

On the fence: Mission Impazible, Ice Box, Conveyance, Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine, Jackson Bend

Top: Lookin At Lucky, Sidney's Candy, American Lion, Awesome Act

If this is anywhere close, I will be completely stunned, but it's fun to take a stab.:jump:

[WinterTriangle]

If this is anywhere close, I will be completely stunned, but it's fun to take a stab.:jump:

I kinda like some of yours, sandpit.

[Smarty Cide]

I guess the Rule discussion is moot since he is definitely out, ditto for Interactif.

Tosses: Noble's Promise, Line of David, Stately Victor, Endorsement, Dublin, Dean's Kitten, Paddy O'Prado, Homeboykris (top last place candidate), Backtalk

On the fence: Mission Impazible, Ice Box, Conveyance, Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine, Jackson Bend

Top: Lookin At Lucky, Sidney's Candy, American Lion, Awesome Act

If this is anywhere close, I will be completely stunned, but it's fun to take a stab.:jump:


endorsement beat out conveyance in his last race. i like him depending on his health, they said he didnt look good running today. I kinda like american lion too because the ill. derby was his first race on dirt and ran a 98 BSF going gate to wire. But other gate to wires horses like endorsement and conveyance in there last race ran faster. just to many front runners in thsi race. could set up well for a closer.. maybe ice box?

[Niko]

Tosses; Dean's Kitten, Discreetly Mine, Endorsement, Jackson Bend, Line of David, Paddy O'Prado, Super Saver

[PhantomOnTour]

throw the filly out at your own risk
Where can I get her pp's? DRF doesn't have her in their Derby contenders list so she isn't included in their free pdf.

[Market Mover]

I like it, got any more like this


Niko, I got plenty more:

Kent Desormeaux does better in Derbies when he rides horses with two-word names: See Fusaichi Pegasus. Real Quiet. Big Brown.
His mount this year is Paddy O'Prado. Now at first glance one may think the apostrophe indicates an actual three word name that's abbreviated with the O', but correct me if i'm wrong: this still counts as two words! CANNOT TOSS BASED ON THIS PREMISE. For all those English teachers out there, please correct me if this assumption is incorrect.

DO NOT TOSS PADDY O'PRADO BASED ON THIS ASSUMPTION.

[gales0678]

she is improving everyday and is todd's best chance to break the 0-24 streak

[miesque]

Niko, I got plenty more:

Kent Desormeaux does better in Derbies when he rides horses with two-word names: See Fusaichi Pegasus. Real Quiet. Big Brown.
His mount this year is Paddy O'Prado. Now at first glance one may think the apostrophe indicates an actual three word name that's abbreviated with the O', but correct me if i'm wrong: this still counts as two words! CANNOT TOSS BASED ON THIS PREMISE. For all those English teachers out there, please correct me if this assumption is incorrect.

DO NOT TOSS PADDY O'PRADO BASED ON THIS ASSUMPTION.

Its fun to look at those sorts of angles for the Derby, especially when you get to the point were I am now and that is I have pretty much handicapped and analyzed as much as I am going and just want the post positions (to make any slight adjustments to what I know I am going to doing from a beeting perspective) and the damn race to be run so I don't have to think about it anymore. :D

On a side note, I actually like Paddy as one of my longshots. Unfortunately he has been getting a little buzz (fortunately not quite Wise Guy buzz) so I am afraid I will not get quite the gaudy price I was looking for. :(

[miesque]

Tosses

Dublin
Homeboykris
Line of David
Conveyance
Discreetly Mine
Jackson Bend
Noble's Promise
Devil May Care
Backtalk
Dean's Kitten
Endorsement
Super Saver
American Lion

On Fence
Mission Impazible
Ice Box

[joanied]

Is this one still running? I know Ritter says he missed his work because of the track, but I keep hearing that he's been missing more than just works in the morning...

They said on Pursuit of the Crown yesterday, interveiwing Walden, that she always gives the horse a day off...every Sunday...and she was sticking to that routine...guess you have to draw your own conclusion.

[joanied]

My tosses (for what it's worth:D )
Dublin
Homeboykris
Line of David
Conveyance
Discreetly Mine
Jackson Bend
American Lion
Devil May Care
Backtalk
Dean's Kitten
Endorsement

And I am still pulling my hair out with the rest...but, my top spots remain the same, like a broken record...Lucky, Awesome Gem (gotta see his work first), Mission Impazable, Ice Box, Paddy, DMC, Sidney, but not so confident in him now...Super Saver & Nobel...question marks on those two.

:bang:

[redshift1]

My tosses (for what it's worth:D )
Dublin
Homeboykris
Line of David
Conveyance
Discreetly Mine
Jackson Bend
American Lion
Devil May Care
Backtalk
Dean's Kitten
Endorsement

And I am still pulling my hair out with the rest...but, my top spots remain the same, like a broken record...Lucky, Awesome Gem (gotta see his work first), Mission Impazable, Ice Box, Paddy, DMC, Sidney, but not so confident in him now...Super Saver & Nobel...question marks on those two.

:bang:

Gem=Act

[joanied]

Gem=Act

I'll be damned...I just came back because I'm watching the Pursuit of the Crown show at the moment and I snapped to the fact I called Awesome Act, Awesome Gem :bang: ...so thought I'd best post a correction for myself.
redshift1...hope you are the only one that noticed....it's :blush: to say the least:)

[theveep]

I'm on the verge of tossing Endorsement because I heard his training sessions are not going well. I saw his latest 5F practice and it was slow. Does anybody have any info on this?

Lou

[TommyCh]

It appears weather will be a factor. Whither Sidney's Candy? And what's the fascination with Setsuko?

[46zilzal]

Interactiv now out

[redshift1]

I like all your tosses except the filly.... the race is next to impossible to handicap so I'll go with the filly, AA ,LAL and Sidney's Candy.

[dodgevadar]

I am throwing out most all of the speed.

[gales0678]

devil may care will love the mud

[OFFandRUNNING10]

It appears weather will be a factor. Whither Sidney's Candy? And what's the fascination with Setsuko?

Is there bad weather coming? I looked earlier this morning and it looked great all week leading up to saturday. On saturday it only had a 40% chance of a scattered thunderstorm.

[46zilzal]

I am throwing out most all of the speed.
Spend A Buck, Affirmed, Bold Forbes, Count Fleet, Sir Barton, Riva Ridge, Winning Colors, Kauai King, Jet Pilot, Regret and War Emblem might be something to consider before a blanket maneuver.

[DRIVEWAY]

Tosses

Dublin
Homeboykris
Line of David
Conveyance
Discreetly Mine
Jackson Bend
Noble's Promise
Devil May Care
Backtalk
Dean's Kitten
Endorsement
Super Saver
American Lion

On Fence
Mission Impazible
Ice Box

Very surprised at how close we see this race.

Contenders
Lookin at Lucky__1(9fl)_4(8.5fl)_Foundation 6pts
Sidney's Candy__1(9fl)_1(8.5fl)_Foundation 3pts
Stately Victor__3(9fl)_4(8.5fl)_Foundation 10pts
Awesome Act____1(9fl)_1(8.5fl)_Foundation 3pts
Paddy O'Prado___3(9fl)_2(8.5fl)_Foundation 8pts

Fence
Mission Impazible_1(9fl)_0(8.5fl)_Foundation 2pts
Ice Box_________3(9fl)_0(8.5fl)_Foundation 6pts

Foundation is 2x for 9Fl and 1x for 8.5fl

I prefer horse with 4 or more foundation points.

[dodgevadar]

Spend A Buck, Affirmed, Bold Forbes, Count Fleet, Sir Barton, Riva Ridge, Winning Colors, Kauai King, Jet Pilot, Regret and War Emblem might be something to consider before a blanket maneuver.

That's why I said most. I will likely keep 1 in play. Sidney's Candy perhaps

[dodgevadar]

Very surprised at how close we see this race.

Contenders
Lookin at Lucky__1(9fl)_4(8.5fl)_Foundation 6pts
Sidney's Candy__1(9fl)_1(8.5fl)_Foundation 3pts
Stately Victor__3(9fl)_4(8.5fl)_Foundation 10pts
Awesome Act____1(9fl)_1(8.5fl)_Foundation 3pts
Paddy O'Prado___3(9fl)_2(8.5fl)_Foundation 8pts

Fence
Mission Impazible_1(9fl)_0(8.5fl)_Foundation 2pts
Ice Box_________3(9fl)_0(8.5fl)_Foundation 6pts

Foundation is 2x for 9Fl and 1x for 8.5fl

I prefer horse with 4 or more foundation points.

Stately Victor ran on a wet track in his debut and handled it pretty well, earning a 77 Beyer and getting up for 2nd.

[TommyCh]

offandrunning,
Well, the forecast has changed even since this morning. Should be some good drying-out periods. Lesser chance of rain Saturday than before.

[point given]

My tosses (for what it's worth:D )
Dublin
Homeboykris
Line of David
Conveyance
Discreetly Mine
Jackson Bend
American Lion
Devil May Care
Backtalk
Dean's Kitten
Endorsement

And I am still pulling my hair out with the rest...but, my top spots remain the same, like a broken record...Lucky, Awesome Gem (gotta see his work first), Mission Impazable, Ice Box, Paddy, DMC, Sidney, but not so confident in him now...Super Saver & Nobel...question marks on those two.

:bang:

You have DMC both in and out, what gives joanie ???????

[RXB]

Joanie is working for Goldman Sachs.

[joanied]

Spend A Buck, Affirmed, Bold Forbes, Count Fleet, Sir Barton, Riva Ridge, Winning Colors, Kauai King, Jet Pilot, Regret and War Emblem might be something to consider before a blanket maneuver.

:ThmbUp: I replied to a post from Sally this morning...speaking about Conveyance...I said I wouldn't be surprised if he wires the field.

[dodgevadar]

A clearer picture should be set once the draw completes.

[joanied]

Joanie is working for Goldman Sachs.

:lol: :lol: :lol: good one :faint:

[joanied]

You have DMC both in and out, what gives joanie ???????

Since I cannot seem to tell a lie :bang: ...I copied & pasted miesque's list :eek: and changed it around....I'm really tired and didn't want to type so much...plus I type with two fingers...and have to look at the key board so it takes a while...there, the truth is out...
so, DMC is not a toss on my part....next time I decide to 'cheat', better make sure I cover my tracks :jump: :jump: :jump: so tired I'm slap-happy too!

[Niko]

Tosses; Dean's Kitten, Discreetly Mine, Endorsement, Jackson Bend, Line of David, Paddy O'Prado, Super Saver

replace Super Saver with Conveyance

[miesque]

Very surprised at how close we see this race.

Contenders
Lookin at Lucky__1(9fl)_4(8.5fl)_Foundation 6pts
Sidney's Candy__1(9fl)_1(8.5fl)_Foundation 3pts
Stately Victor__3(9fl)_4(8.5fl)_Foundation 10pts
Awesome Act____1(9fl)_1(8.5fl)_Foundation 3pts
Paddy O'Prado___3(9fl)_2(8.5fl)_Foundation 8pts

Fence
Mission Impazible_1(9fl)_0(8.5fl)_Foundation 2pts
Ice Box_________3(9fl)_0(8.5fl)_Foundation 6pts

Foundation is 2x for 9Fl and 1x for 8.5fl

I prefer horse with 4 or more foundation points.

Yes, that is pretty much where I am at this point. It wish it had more of a longshot flavor to it, but those top 5 are the horses I think will perform the best in this years Derby given the race composition and likely pace scenario. While I may make some adjustments after the post position draw, at this point I am looking at using those five in the Pick 4 and the question is whether I also throw in one of the On The Fence selections into my exacta, tri and supers along with those five and I will make that decision sometime early afternoon on Sat.

Right now I just really want the PPs for the rest of the card on Sat because I think I have hit Derby capping overload and that is why its very unlikely I make any material changes in the horses I am going to play. This is another reason I like Breeders Cup a lot better then the TC races as there are wayyyy more contenders and potential pace scenarios to keep track of.

[hazzardm]

replace Super Saver with Conveyance

I think Conveyance's only job is to play rabbit and gas out Syd's Candy.

[GaryG]

Whatever the motive I see Conveyance as a clear pacesetter. If Sidney, Super Saver, Line Of David etc try to run with him the pace could really be balls to the wall.

[hazzardm]

No particular order .......

No way
--------
Homeboykris
Line of David
Conveyance
Discreetly Mine
Jackson Bend
Noble's Promise
Backtalk
Dean's Kitten
Endorsement


Way
--------
Dublin
Ice Box
Super Saver
Devil May Care
Lookin at Lucky
Paddy O'Prado
American Lion
Mission Impazible

[hazzardm]

Whatever the motive I see Conveyance as a clear pacesetter. If Sidney, Super Saver, Line Of David etc try to run with him the pace could really be balls to the wall.

American Lion as well. I hope Am Lion can figger out how to stalk (not sure that he can) because I got a nice future on him :jump:

[Stevie Belmont]

Conveyance goes out no doubt. There is a possibility he will be clear with his speed. Distance is his issue, but I would not be stunned one bit if he turns for home with a clear lead.

Sidney's Candy goes so smooth. I am convinced he can sit off whoever is out there and uncork that explosive burst at the right time.

I truly hope the track is fast and dry.

Lotsa of things can still happen...

I also think Awesome Act will be way, way back there and try to make a real late rally.

Waiting for that draw

[OFFandRUNNING10]

American Lion as well. I hope Am Lion can figger out how to stalk (not sure that he can) because I got a nice future on him :jump:

I think American Lion is going to need to be within the top 4 or 5 horses at worse to have any shot. I do not think he has the acceleration or agility to be any further back and pass that many horses while holding off the faster closer and stalkers. He is more of a "grind it out" horse to me.

[hazzardm]

I think American Lion is going to need to be within the top 4 or 5 horses at worse to have any shot. I do not think he has the acceleration or agility to be any further back and pass that many horses while holding off the faster closer and stalkers. He is more of a "grind it out" horse to me.

Agree he doesn't pass many horses ......

[GaryG]

At this point I like AA and the filly....awaiting the draw.

[W2G]

Tossed
--------

1,5,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,15,18,19,20

Not yet tossed
-----------------

2,3,4,6,13,16,17

[PhantomOnTour]

Despite being a fan of his (and Rajiv) and cashing a pretty nice ticket on him in the La Dby I have to toss this guy out of all my bets. He may be improving and be out of a fine mare, but he just looks too slow for these at this point. The race flow may help him as well, but the LaDby was pretty darn slow next to the other big preps...no matter how you carve it up. Not even one fraction from that race can stand up to the others, and he had a dream trip off two dueling leaders. Then was fully extended to get them before the wire...he did gallop out well. I was there and had the binos on him.
Heck, who knows...."these 3yr olds can jump up at any time..." seems to be the catch phrase. Gotta draw the line somewhere, and it's here for him.

[Smarty Cide]

alot of people like dublin, not me, not only has no horse since 1900 won from the 17 post, he has been out ran by so many of these horses in the past few months

[dodgevadar]

I'm keying the filly on top in all my plays. Totally on gut.

[magwell]

As of today I have 3 still standing Lucky, Candy and maybe the filly.....:cool: Now after the draw its the most wide open Derby in many years for me I have no clue .....:confused:

[MNslappy]

Put 2/3s of your money on Calvin to WPS and then use the rest on the all irish exacta, Paddy / Dublin.

[Smarty Cide]

Put 2/3s of your money on Calvin to WPS and then use the rest on the all irish exacta, Paddy / Dublin.

no way we will get 15-1 by post time

[GaryG]

alot of people like dublin, not me, not only has no horse since 1900 won from the 17 post, he has been out ran by so many of these horses in the past few monthsThat one is an easy toss for me....he hung like a maiden with 25 starts at OP.

[GaryG]

At this point I like AA and the filly....awaiting the draw.I think this is my final answer: Ice box over Devil May Care and Sidney's Candy.

[dodgevadar]

I think this is my final answer: Ice box over Devil May Care and Sidney's Candy.

I like it.

I just rewatched the FL Derby. The move Ice Box made was awesome, but he did seem to flatten out once he engaged the :4:

Still. He should have plenty to run at and is a relatively safe bet to good in the stretch

[TommyCh]

Stately Victor seems to be in the Bermuda Triangle. I'm not hearing much about her one way or another on the forums.

[nijinski]

Awesome Act may get the pace he needs if he can get the distance.
I'll likely have him in the mix.