Worst Derby Field I've Ever Seen

[Zenyatta To Crush]

I've only been following the horses closely for about 15 years, but this seems like the worst derby field I've ever seen assembled. Some of the horses like Lookin At Lucky or Sidney's Candy may eventually turn out to be pretty good, but my excitement level is now greatly diminished now that Eskendereya is scratched. Can anyone remember the last derby field which seems weaker than this field? We've had potentially great horses entered in basically every derby I've watched but it seems like we are lacking that this year.

[LottaKash]

Actually I thought that last year's mix, was rather bland...

best,

[tzipi]

I didn't think 2008's Derby field(Besides Eight Belles) was horrible but I didn't think it was that great either.

[miesque]

I don't think the fields for the last two Derbies were that great, so that would make at least three in a row from my perspective. Maybe I am just a little too negative about the TC Trail, but I don't not see the "quality of field" aspect of the Derby getting any better as the trend towards more and more time between races continues which leads to running in less preps and a dilution of the prep races in general, making it more likely that there is less consistency in the results.

[castaway01]

As horses run fewer and fewer races at 2 and in their Triple Crown campaigns, it stands to reason that there will be fewer that build up impressive credentials. In the "old days" if you ran 15 races before the Derby, it stood to reason you'd win a few stakes or you wouldn't be in the Derby. Now, if you run five races before the Derby, well, not everyone can win those races, so the number of proven multiple Grade 1 stakes-winning horses is smaller.

[rwwupl]

Famous horses do not make the Triple Crown.

The Triple Crown makes famous horses.

[Run Nicholas Run]

2002 was pretty bland of 3 yo's.
War Emblem derby champion :bang:

[Grits]

I've only been following the horses closely for about 15 years, but this seems like the worst derby field I've ever seen assembled. Some of the horses like Lookin At Lucky or Sidney's Candy may eventually turn out to be pretty good, but my excitement level is now greatly diminished now that Eskendereya is scratched. Can anyone remember the last derby field which seems weaker than this field? We've had potentially great horses entered in basically every derby I've watched but it seems like we are lacking that this year.

I can't imagine placing such confidence in ONE three year old in a field of twenty, that my interest would greatly be diminished by that one's exit. Does the potential for more lucrative payouts with the exit of Eskendereya have no appeal, ZTC? Granted the media, and others who were "in the know" regarding his problem before it was released this a.m. were planning to bet against him, still, this seems to be a working into a fine betting opportunity. One can love the race for this reason alone.

[horses4courses]

I think we need to watch the Derby and Preakness before stating what type of crop of 3 year olds we have this year.....

So far, I think they have the makings of a pretty decent bunch.

Calling them horrible at this point?
Way too early, imo.

[WinterTriangle]

Famous horses do not make the Triple Crown.

The Triple Crown makes famous horses.

:ThmbUp:

There are some who clutter up the season, like eightfiveinfifty, who I didn't think would even win yesterday. These owners with derby dreams need to back off, it's not like their horses are going to become great CLASSIC winners all of a sudden for May 1st. :D

[tucker6]

Famous horses do not make the Triple Crown.

The Triple Crown makes famous horses.
Dr Fager

Cigar

Forego

etc, etc, etc

Obviously, there is a vast quantity that do not fit your label. I would rather state that famous (and great) horses make the triple crown. You give too much importance to three arbitrary races making the horses, when in fact, they make the triple crown. My opinion of course.

[Sekrah]

Almost all the top trainers these days are gearing their horses to peak in the spring now. I personally think alot of great horses are gonna come out of this crop (Super Saver, Rule, Conveyance, Endorsement) if their owners decide to run them into their 4 and 5 year old campaigns (doubtful anymore).

[horses4courses]

:ThmbUp:

There are some who clutter up the season, like eightfiveinfifty, who I didn't think would even win yesterday. These owners with derby dreams need to back off, it's not like their horses are going to become great CLASSIC winners all of a sudden for May 1st. :D

There are plenty of people who would have thought like that about
Mine That Bird's connections last year.......

[tzipi]

:ThmbUp:

There are some who clutter up the season, like eightfiveinfifty, who I didn't think would even win yesterday. These owners with derby dreams need to back off, it's not like their horses are going to become great CLASSIC winners all of a sudden for May 1st. :D


Alot of longshots and owners with Derby dreams have won the Derby. Why should all these "longshot" horses and owners back off now?

[Grits]

Alot of longshots and owners with Derby dreams have won the Derby. Why should all these "longshot" horses and owners back off now?

This is easy to agree with, who am I to bust someone's dreams? I don't think so. As we say . . . . afterall its a horserace and anything can happen.

[firstoffclaim]

Are there ANY interesting stories in this Derby? I haven't read one yet. I'm a bit disappointed that there hasn't been any captivating feel good stories.

[pandy]

There have been many fields that didn't appear that strong, especially in the last 10 years or so. But sometimes it fools you and the crop is actually pretty good. Since the horses are more lightly raced now, there's less of a chance for high Beyers and most of the horses have not shown their best. Years ago the horses in the Derby were much more seasoned and had shown their hand. The main thing is, will the race be exciting? Based on what I've seen so far this spring, I doubt it will disappoint.

[cj's dad]

The 2005 field with Afleet Alex, Bernardini, Bellamy Road etc...was so weak that a slug like Giacomo won the race -- go figure that one.

[RXB]

Bernardini was the following year, and ran in only the Preakness.

[riskman]

Dual Qualifiers---Is the winner here?

Lookin At Lucky
Awesome Act
Dublin
Super Saver
Devil May Care (f)
Noble’s Promise
Discreetly Mine
Interactif
Homeboykris

[Sekrah]

Slowest Beyers to win a Debry

Giacomo - 100, Lightning fast pace of 45.1/109.2/135.4 gobbles up all the talent near the front end as Giacomo comes from 18th to inherit the victory from all those sucking wind. He showed his class the following week when he lost by 10 to Afleet Alex.

The next slowest was Sea Hero's 105 in 1993, he won by 2 1/2 lengths.


Best Derby field ever? Tough to argue against 1997.. Silver Charm, Free House, Touch Gold, Captain Bodgit, Pulpit, Crypto star.. Some great race horses there. SC did a 115 in the Derby and a 118 in tightly packed Preakness. 2003 with Funny Cide, Empire Maker, Peace Rules, Ten Most Wanted, Domestic Dispute a solid runner up.

Every year since then has been pretty weak.

[tzipi]

Best Derby field ever? Tough to argue against 1997.. Silver Charm, Free House, Touch Gold, Captain Bodgit, Pulpit, Crypto star.. Some great race horses there. SC did a 115 in the Derby and a 118 in tightly packed Preakness. 2003 with Funny Cide, Empire Maker, Peace Rules, Ten Most Wanted, Domestic Dispute a solid runner up.

Every year since then has been pretty weak.

I liked that 1997 field too. Pretty solid.

[Tom]

Any field of 20 horses is nothing more than a joke.
Now you just get another 20.....sit back and look for a long shot - the race itself means little.

[OTM Al]

Nothing like the annual weak crop debate.....

[Sekrah]

Nothing like the annual weak crop debate.....


Time honored tradition.

[therussmeister]

Nothing like the annual weak crop debate.....

Which year had the weakest "weak crop debate"?

[pandy]

Any field of 20 horses is nothing more than a joke.
Now you just get another 20.....sit back and look for a long shot - the race itself means little.

I agree, the best horse rarely wins the Derby, it's fun to watch but 20 horses is just too much, half of the field gets taken out by the trip. When Jerry Bailey talks about his two Derby wins, he makes it very clear that he was fortunate to have clear sailing all the way. He even said something like, "every time I needed room a lane opened up." So if you can figure out who is going to get lucky this time, you've got a chance.

[Sekrah]

That's why most Derbies are won by:

A - front-runners w2w
B - stalkers who sit 2-3 lengths off the pace in 4th-6th and then take over either on the backstretch or on the turn.
C - deep closers who falls 15-18 lenghts off the pace and does most of its passing when the field is stretched out and its easier to pass horses.

What's missing? The middle of the packers who will be sitting 6-8 lengths off the pace in 8th-10th place behind a wall of horses.



Mine That Bird - C, 21 lengths off, 20th
Big Brown - B/A, 3 lenghts back first call, clear sailing, took lead on backstretch
Street Sense - C, 19 lengths off, 19th
Barbaro - B/A, Very similar to Big Brown, took over early in back stretch
Giacomo - C, 16 lengths off, 18th
Smarty Jones - B, Stalked 2nd, took over top of stretch
Funny Cide - B, Stalked 2nd, took over top of stretch
War Emblem - A, Wired em.


Boost closers (Ice Box) and horses that get great starts and rate/stalk (Endorsement).

[kenwoodallpromos]

Are there ANY interesting stories in this Derby? I haven't read one yet. I'm a bit disappointed that there hasn't been any captivating feel good stories.
IMHO, Endorsement has this for a good story- 3 horses broke 100 speed rating- Rule at 5 1/2f, Sidney's Candy at 118 lb. Endorsement is the only one to break 100 carrying over 118lb, and the only one to break 100 at over 1 mile!!

[Sekrah]

IMHO, Endorsement has this for a good story- 3 horses broke 100 speed mrating- Rule at 5 1/2f, Sidney's Candy at 118 lb. Endorsement is the only one to break 100 carrying over 118 lb.!


And that was after shipping from Fair Grounds (Sea Level) to Sunland Park (3700 feet) just a couple days before the race, burying an undefeated two-time graded stakes winner by 3 lenghts.

Must use on any Derby ticket IMO.

[Audioslavery]

Worst derby field? More like worst east coast horses once again this year! Lookin at Lucky will win this race with or without Eskendereya in the gate.

[Buckeye]

I've only been following the horses closely for about 15 years, but this seems like the worst derby field I've ever seen assembled. Some of the horses like Lookin At Lucky or Sidney's Candy may eventually turn out to be pretty good, but my excitement level is now greatly diminished now that Eskendereya is scratched. Can anyone remember the last derby field which seems weaker than this field? We've had potentially great horses entered in basically every derby I've watched but it seems like we are lacking that this year.

you may be right but that would be assuming quite a bit. Remember Sea Hero?

[OTM Al]

I agree, the best horse rarely wins the Derby, it's fun to watch but 20 horses is just too much, half of the field gets taken out by the trip. When Jerry Bailey talks about his two Derby wins, he makes it very clear that he was fortunate to have clear sailing all the way. He even said something like, "every time I needed room a lane opened up." So if you can figure out who is going to get lucky this time, you've got a chance.

Really?

2004 Smarty Jones
2006 Barbaro
2007 Street Sense
2008 Big Brown

That's 4 of the last 6 years. Not too rare I think.

[OTM Al]

Which year had the weakest "weak crop debate"?

This year. Weakness grows exponentially with every recycling.

[Buckeye]

just my opinion, all four were best.

But Sea Hero? Best of what?

[Buckeye]

Really?

2004 Smarty Jones
2006 Barbaro
2007 Street Sense
2008 Big Brown

That's 4 of the last 6 years. Not too rare I think.

Right you are. 4 out of 4.

[philofbelloni]

I didn't think 2008's Derby field(Besides Eight Belles) was horrible but I didn't think it was that great either.
2008 had a few gems in their own niche.
Cowboy Cal, BobBlackJack and Gayego as sprinters.
Court Vision a decent turfer.
Tale of Ekati, Pyro and Colonel John stayed competetive for awhile.
Many Barbaro fans may be upset by the notion but 2006 was a weak field, imo.

[Sekrah]

Many Barbaro fans may be upset by the notion but 2006 was a weak field, imo.

I'm no Barbaro fan but I disagree completely.

Brother Derek came into the Derby with 4 straight G1 or G2 wins including a pair of 108 beyers.

Lawyer Ron had a 6 race winning streak capped by the Rebel and Arkansas Derby. A 106 beyer in the Risen Star.

Sweetnorthernsaint put up monster speed figures everywhere he went. Topping out with a 109 in the Illinois Derby.

Sinister Minister scorched the Blue Grass by 9 lengths for a 116.

Bob Baffert had two very powerful looking horses in Point Determined and Bob and John.

Barbaro was coming in with a 103 top, but the big difference was, those other horses had peaked their best efforts too soon. Coming in they all looked like monsters.

--

Compare all those numbers to this years field. We have two horses who have broken 100 Beyer in the 2010 Ky Derby. Endorsement and Sidney's Candy.

Again, I think alot of those 2006 3yos peaked too soon in the spring and this crop has alot of potential this summer.

[tzipi]

Barbaro was awesome and that horse could run IMO. I think he would've went on to be even better. A great piece on Barbaro and his accomplishments and sadly his end was HBO's sports special Barbaro.

[Nitro]

Personally I think this thread exemplifies the obvious difference between the “fan” and the “player”. Do you think for a minute that any player really cares how good or bad this group of 3-year olds might be (now or later)? Not for a second! The withdrawal of probable post time favorite makes this a horse race with lots of potential for some great prices. You can already sense the frustration that many of the fans have trying to figure this one out. Now all we need is an off track on Derby day to really confuse them.

When you’ve played this game for while, sure it’s nice to see a great one come along every so often. But is that why you’re playing? Are you excited about betting chalk? Come on fans! Get a grip. The Triple Crown races this year could very well turn out to be a “player’s” dream come true. Without a dominant horse in each race, it means that the trainers won’t be so reluctant to enter their horses. We might even have a decent field by the time they get to the Belmont.

Who knows, maybe we’re all in for a big surprise, but until then I’ll be happy looking for some nice exotic scores. That’s what I’m excited about!

[tzipi]

I agree, it's hard to call this 2010 field weak or strong. I mean they haven't even run the Derby yet or most of their 3yo seasons. You can call past years fields what you want but not a field of horses who haven't really gotten a chance to prove themselves yet fully.

[Robert Goren]

I hear this every year.

[Greyfox]

I hear this every year.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Bruddah]

I have been keeping records and stats on Ky Derby and Triple Crown races since 1965. I will state for the record that this is the deepest and best 3yo group to run in the 2000 decade. There a fewer 100+ Beyers but almost every contestant has run a 95+Beyer.

I believe they will prove to be the best 3 yo group by the end of the year, certainly the deepest.

[Sekrah]

I have been keeping records and stats on Ky Derby and Triple Crown races since 1965. I will state for the record that this is the deepest and best 3yo group to run in the 2000 decade. There a fewer 100+ Beyers but almost every contestant has run a 95+Beyer.

I believe they will prove to be the best 3 yo group by the end of the year, certainly the deepest.


Say what?

Number of Kentucky Derby Contenders entering with atleast a 95 Beyer

2010 - 14 of 20 (Mission Impazible, Stately Victor, Discreetly Mine, Homeboykris, Paddy O'Prado, Dean's Kitten have never run a 95 or better)
2009 - 12 of 20 (Desert Party and Regal Ransom were without Beyers and could of had a 95 with 1st and 2nd placed Dubai efforts)
2008 - 15 of 20
2007 - 17 of 20 (Zanjero [93], Imawildandcrazyguy [94], and Bwana Bull [91] were short)
2006 - 17 of 20 (Flashy Bull [94], Steppenwolfer [94], and Seaside Retreat [85] were short)
2005 - 18 of 20 (Andromeda's Hero [94], Spanish Chestnut [94] were short)
2004 - 20 of 20 (Worst number was 98 shared by Action This Day and Tapit)
2003 - 16 of 17 (Only Ten Cents A Shine [93] came up short)


Sounds like a hell of a stack of records and stats you are collecting. Since you are stating it "for the record", the paper your stats are written on would do wonders in the bathroom.

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

Are there ANY interesting stories in this Derby? I haven't read one yet. I'm a bit disappointed that there hasn't been any captivating feel good stories.

Now there is a good story. I would like to see Todd Pletcher win and for him to make a few bucks. He probably could use the money. A great story!

[46zilzal]

I have heard this same line now for over 40 years....

[OTM Al]

2010 - 14 of 20 (Mission Impazible, Stately Victor, Discreetly Mine, Homeboykris, Paddy O'Prado, Dean's Kitten have never run a 95 or better)



Being as the field is not yet set, you might want to wait on this criticism

[Kimsus]

From a betting perspective this will be a good derby, from an interest standpoint this has been a snooze thus far.

[cj's dad]

Bernardini was the following year, and ran in only the Preakness.

Meant to post Bandini

[Hedevar]

Dr Fager

Cigar

Forego

etc, etc, etc

Obviously, there is a vast quantity that do not fit your label. I would rather state that famous (and great) horses make the triple crown. You give too much importance to three arbitrary races making the horses, when in fact, they make the triple crown. My opinion of course.

Actually Forego finished 5th behind Secretariat.

[46zilzal]

Many of the winners of the Derby had two things going for them Preciosity and luck

[Sekrah]

Being as the field is not yet set, you might want to wait on this criticism

Those 6 are almost certain to run. A few of them could drop out and that guys declaration would still be 1000% wrong. The most likely scenario is a 7th horse short of 95 gets added to the field. That's Backtalk

Just another guy making it up as he goes.

[devilsbag]

1970 and 1982 would be tough to top. Actually, bottom would be more appropriate.

[Market Mover]

Famous horses do not make the Triple Crown.

The Triple Crown makes famous horses.


Very true statements. Who would have thought that Real Quiet would have emerged from the 1998 crop as a nose-near-miss TC horse? And now nobody forgets his name...

Or War Emblem's surprise Derby tour-de-force, subsequent Preakness smasher, and then Belmont flop...

When you look at this crop, don't look for horses that stand out and pop off the page. Look for horses that can dominate their weak competition, if you truly believe it's a weak crop.

When it comes down to it, the trainers who have been down this road before will maximize their edges over the competition as their respective charges roll through the TC...

[46zilzal]

Real Quiet was not that spectacular a colt....lucky and precocious.

[Market Mover]

Real Quiet was not that spectacular a colt....lucky and precocious.


Most would not argue that Spectacular Bid was spectacular, yet he lost the TC by more than The Fish did. Yes, it was the safety pin, it was the jockey error, and a whole lotta bad luck that did him in. Was Bud Delp to lame? Well we all know he's a master trainer but had my horse been going for the Crown, i'd sleep with that horse and pad the stall with cotton or feathers...

Pleasant Colony looked to clinch that 1981 Crown, but fell short when his closing run couldn't be sustained in deep stretch. Some questioned the training by Campo leading up to that Belmont. An imposing 17 hands, he was a big, gangly type of horse who just succumbed to the wear and tear of this rigorous 3 race series.


Real Quiet was just spectacular against his particular crop, and had a jock who, despite obvious demons and insanities, knew how to blitz the field early and "leave them with a lot to do" late...Precocious he was, yet his handling was one of the main reasons he was ALMOST able to acheive the sweep...RQ was kept fit enough to sustain those three runs at the top level in 1998.

[Riley]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

I'm just going to third this. Eskendereya drops out and all of a sudden the field is super weak? One horse doesn't make a strong field, and I think Eskendereya was completely over-hyped as it is. But I agree you always hear this, and I feel like we'll hear it even more once the winner is announced.

[Buckeye]

Quote:
Originally Posted by tucker6
Dr Fager

Cigar

Forego

etc, etc, etc

Obviously, there is a vast quantity that do not fit your label. I would rather state that famous (and great) horses make the triple crown. You give too much importance to three arbitrary races making the horses, when in fact, they make the triple crown. My opinion of course.

Cigar, The Doctor and Forego NEVER won the Kentucky Derby. Two geldings out of three for the best of all time? Cigar was not technically a gelding but look it up. He's in a horse park. Hell I could enter myself in the Triple Crown. Who cares? The Triple Crown 2nd leg was won by Rachel Alexandra last year. Nothing is set in stone. Ruffian for example never competed. Secretariat had his little 1973 party. and so on and so on. Don't talk at all about Triple Crown non winners and then what? The best horses of "all time" up to this point are all dead for whatever and various reasons, with the afore mentioned three NOT included. Maybe it's best for us all to enjoy the beauty before us now and forget-- or at least leave the past where it belongs. We'll never know who the best ever was because nobody can race against Ruffian anymore.

[pandy]

Really?

2004 Smarty Jones
2006 Barbaro
2007 Street Sense
2008 Big Brown

That's 4 of the last 6 years. Not too rare I think.

Oh c'mon, I bet that you did not BET these horses. The only horse out of the 4 that actually looked solid coming into the race was Big Brown, and even he appeared to be a bad bet from post 20. There are a lot more upsets than formful finishes in the Derby.

[lamboguy]

this is the best field i have ever seen, next year will be better than this year's and the next year after that will be better as well. a matter of fact the field 10 years from now will be the very best one of all time.

[sandpit]

Actually Forego finished 5th behind Secretariat.

Forego was fourth in the Derby, a half length behind Our Native. From the chart: "FOREGO , taken to the inside early, veered slightly form a rival and hit the rail entering the far turn, swung wide entering the stretch and vied with OUR NATIVE in the drive.

[Thomas Roulston]

Looking at the lifetime-best BSFs of virtually all the Derby horses, Casey Stengel's famous quote comes to mind: Can anyone here play this game?

This Derby might go in 2:06.

[tucker6]

Quote:
Originally Posted by tucker6
Dr Fager

Cigar

Forego

etc, etc, etc

Obviously, there is a vast quantity that do not fit your label. I would rather state that famous (and great) horses make the triple crown. You give too much importance to three arbitrary races making the horses, when in fact, they make the triple crown. My opinion of course.

Cigar, The Doctor and Forego NEVER won the Kentucky Derby. Two geldings out of three for the best of all time? Cigar was not technically a gelding but look it up. He's in a horse park. Hell I could enter myself in the Triple Crown. Who cares? The Triple Crown 2nd leg was won by Rachel Alexandra last year. Nothing is set in stone. Ruffian for example never competed. Secretariat had his little 1973 party. and so on and so on. Don't talk at all about Triple Crown non winners and then what? The best horses of "all time" up to this point are all dead for whatever and various reasons, with the afore mentioned three NOT included. Maybe it's best for us all to enjoy the beauty before us now and forget-- or at least leave the past where it belongs. We'll never know who the best ever was because nobody can race against Ruffian anymore.
I'm not certain we're on the same page of the discussion. I actually have no idea how your post is related to mine. I was simply stating that many horses who are considered great either never ran in the TC series, never won a TC race, or only distinquished themselves well after the TC series. That all I was saying. Does winning a TC make you great?? Yes, I believe so. However, there are many ways to become great, and it could very well be that a horse that won a TC would have become great in another manner. A great horse is a great horse regardless of the name of the race.

[kenwoodallpromos]

This year some of te horses with the top speed ratings are falling (thankfully not literally) by the wayside due to injury.
As a side note, Endorsement was injured at CD workout following 2 works on Kee plubber. Many others have run multiple times on Plubber. So are total breakdowns being avoided or is the fake stuff hurting some just enough to be a no-show?

[JustRalph]

This Derby might go in 2:06.

and after looking at some prelim figures........there might be 6 of them in a photo for the win............ :lol: :bang:

[Buckeye]

I'm not certain we're on the same page of the discussion. I actually have no idea how your post is related to mine. I was simply stating that many horses who are considered great either never ran in the TC series, never won a TC race, or only distinquished themselves well after the TC series. That all I was saying. Does winning a TC make you great?? Yes, I believe so. However, there are many ways to become great, and it could very well be that a horse that won a TC would have become great in another manner. A great horse is a great horse regardless of the name of the race.

I completely agree-- Win the Triple Crown and definitely you're Great, but if you don't other factors come into play. Man o' War didn't win the Triple Crown but Secretariat did. Who's better? Ruffian didn't even get involved. Who's better?

We will never know.

[Buckeye]

just a little aside/joke, I recently had someone tell me Seabiscuit beat Man o' War in a match race! People will believe what they want, I can't stop that.

Did Bayakoa beat Go For Wand in the Breeders' Cup Distaff? Sadly yes, she did.

[MNslappy]

I'll tell ya what would've made this year's field more interesting...
Chip Woolley