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View Full Version : Eskendereya.. The Most Talented?

Cadillakin
04-25-2010, 01:42 PM
The Beyer devotees obviously think he is talented.. but that's just a number. It means not much when the gates open up.. If it did, Andy Beyer would be able to pick the 3 year old classics slightly better than the proverbial "old lady with the hatpin." But he doesn't.

Beating up on Jackson Bend, who wants no part of 9 furlongs (as evidenced by his extremely slow last quarter miles) in 2 consecutive races does not imo, confirm anything near championship quality..

To be deemed the best.. a horse has to show up for the all-comers races... the races that crown the champions. The best races of the year, in the class. IMO, those races were yet to come for Eskendereya.. In my days around the race tracks, I've seen hundreds of horses with unfulfilled promise.. who went unsound, or didn't otherwise come through when the gates opened for the big races. At the moment, that's all Eskendereya is.. A horse of unfulfilled promise who would have been a favorite in a prestigious race.

The same thing happened last year.. I Want Revenge was just a top 3 year old in the West.. not the best... but a top horse. Then, he shipped east and steamrolled a bunch of creampuffs in the Gotham and the Wood, and everybody crowned him top dog.. Why? Because Andy Beyer gave him a 113 in the Gotham.. and he ran on dirt. Not because he beat anybody of great promise or accomplishment.. because he didn't. He beat nobody.. One Grade3 horse. The rest of them are still plodding along, trying to pick up checks.. Not one of those horses in the Gotham or the Wood validated those races with any subsequent top performances in the class.

I Want Revenge was just a prospective favorite.. That's all. Just like Eskendereya. In the last 24 runnings of the Derby, with all the sophisticated rating techniques (Beyer #'s), the favorites have won just 4 times. So, what does it really mean to have a good number? Is it indicative of greatness, or predictive of a win in the Kentucky Derby? Not so..

For those of you who think greatness is bestowed by a bespectacled sportswriter with invented numbers, I'll disagree.. I don't stand alone when I say; Greatness is accomplishment and victory against the best in the sport..

Eskendereya never got that far.
Dahoss9698
04-25-2010, 03:28 PM
All the time to write this nonsense, but you still avoid the weight stuff in the Zenyatta thread. Very telling.

But this is a fantastic thread. Proof that whatever happens in racing, somehow it's Beyer's fault. For the record I don't believe Beyer has ever called I Want Revenge or Eskendereya great. He just gives the races they run one of his figures. That's all.
WinterTriangle
04-25-2010, 03:48 PM
with all the sophisticated rating techniques (Beyer #'s), the favorites have won just 4 times.

Anyone who does a minimum simple analysis of the avg. win/place/show payouts of KY Derbies over 20 years, or even 10 years, as well as the avg exacta payouts, would notice that those hopping on the bandwagon of the touts and figure-makers often don't cash the big ticket.

One must "look behind the curtain".

Obviously, you do.

I wish Esky was still in because he would have taken a ton of money and that would have been good. :)
Dahoss9698
04-25-2010, 03:53 PM
Yes, it truly is hard to believe in 20 horse fields you get big prices in the exotics. That blindly betting the favorites is a losing proposition. I'm learning so much.
WinterTriangle
04-25-2010, 04:06 PM
Yes, it truly is hard to believe in 20 horse fields you get big prices in the exotics.

Win/Place/Show wagers, avg. odds, 10-20 years.

Are those exotics? :D
Fager Fan
04-25-2010, 04:12 PM
There are other figures than Beyers, though Beyers alone have done a pretty good job at separating contenders from pretenders.
Dahoss9698
04-25-2010, 04:15 PM
Win/Place/Show wagers, avg. odds, 10-20 years.

Are those exotics? :D

as well as the avg exacta payouts

Your words not mine.
DeanT
04-25-2010, 04:35 PM
One must "look behind the curtain".

It certainly is what makes it the greatest betting race in the world.

There is nothing other than the Derby. Trying to find that one or two horses, by searching like looking for a needle in a haystack, can provide us with a life changing score. I am getting excited already :)
Sekrah
04-25-2010, 04:43 PM
There are other figures than Beyers, though Beyers alone have done a pretty good job at separating contenders from pretenders.

That's all Beyers numbers are good for. His synth numbers are clearly out of whack. BRIS isn't well liked around here, but I rate their numbers ahead of Beyer's who performs too much subjective voodoo with his final times. BRIS speed and pace figs actually made Endorsement a logical contender in the Sun Derby, where he was an easy toss with Beyer figs. Stately Victor in the Bluegrass is another one. BRIS had SV's 2 yo MSW 7f on dirt and his Jan 31st Allowance 1 1/8 dirt race much faster than Beyer. BRIS Speed Figs actually made him a must use for me and helped me hit the exacta around my Paddy key.

Mission Impazible in the LA Derby another one..


Beyer Sucks.
Cardus
04-25-2010, 05:31 PM
If you want to start a thread in order to disparage Andy Beyer, at least do a little better to hide your agenda.

After the second word of your post, it's rather easy to figure out what is happening here.
RXB
04-25-2010, 05:53 PM
If you want to start a thread in order to disparage Andy Beyer, at least do a little better to hide your agenda.

After the second word of your post, it's rather easy to figure out what is happening here.

I would add: anybody who deletes a post after the horse he disparaged went on to win, shouldn't be taking shots at Andy Beyer or anyone else.
castaway01
04-25-2010, 07:44 PM
All that babbling about "most talented" and "Beyer figures"...the point was that he would have been the favorite and if you didn't like him, you could make a hell of a lot more money with him in the race than out.
RXB
04-25-2010, 08:03 PM
Yes.

I just realized that I should clarify something, because it might look as though my previous comment was about the thread-starter, when in fact it is about Mr. "Beyer Sucks."
Cardus
04-25-2010, 10:39 PM
All that babbling about "most talented" and "Beyer figures"...the point was that he would have been the favorite and if you didn't like him, you could make a hell of a lot more money with him in the race than out.

How to make money on the Derby was not remotely implied in the thread-starting post.

He analyzed Eskendereya's Beyer Speed Figures versus his accomplishments.

And tacked on some digs at Andy Beyer.