My ROI

[Light]

Continuing from "SF Mile" thread. So far

Total races bet 3

Total win bets 5

Invest $10 Return $8.20.

Going to play CRC today. Opening day,big fields and Aqu looks all washed up.

race 1

This is an ugly race. Favorite is dropping from 15K. Is 4/5. Can wire em but is suspect. Don't like the 2nd choice. Going to take shot with 2 other uglies in here, 6 and 7. 5mtp

[Light]

It was ugly. Fav won like 1-5 should. #7 ran 3rd @16-1.

Races 4

Bets 7

Inv.$14 Ret. $8.20

[Light]

CRC R2 #4 5mtp

[Light]

Horrible trip for the 4. Inquiry and still they didn't put him up. Was much the best.

[the little guy]

So let me get this straight.....you get to cherry pick but others have to play every race at a given track.

You just keep sinking lower. It's pitiful. Nothing new.

[Light]

CRC R5

2,4,9

[Light]

So let me get this straight.....you get to cherry pick but others have to play every race at a given track.

You just keep sinking lower. It's pitiful. Nothing new.

I havent seen anyone here post a profit with their "cherry" picks. In fact they dont even keep track of them for good reason. So I don't think its that much easier than what you do.

[Light]

Came 4-2 #4W $14.80 $1 exacta paid $39.50

Total races bet 6

Total # of win bets 11

Invest $22 Return $23

[the little guy]

Came 4-2 #4W $14.80 $1 exacta paid $39.50

Total races bet 6

Total # of win bets 11

Invest $22 Return $23


Let's see, you listed three picks, which is different that the " rules " you set for others, don't say how you're betting....yet somehow claim a victory after the race.

You should have a red nose and a seltzer bottle.

[Light]

Im following the win bet guideline like in anybody's case. $2 on each selection. I do bet multiple horses in a race.

When I checked how you did at Sar last summer,I also checked your top 2 picks to see if your ROi is better betting 2 horses per race. I even tried your top 3,taking scratches into account. In both cases when I used your multiple bets your ROi was worse than just using your top pick. I see nothing wrong with someone betting multiple horses per race if it leads to a better ROI.

[the little guy]

They say it's easy to fool yourself. This thread is proof.

[Light]

People criticize me for criticizing others and no personal picks. Now that I have time to put them up, I am somehow fooling myself? You're just afraid that I might end up with a positive ROI.

When I pointed out your negative ROI, some people said I had to listen to your broadcast to see who you REALLY liked. I did. Cherry picking your selections was no help to your negative ROI either.

[Light]

One more thing. I checked your ROI playing exactas boxing your top 2 or 3 horses. It was negative. So far playing the races where I picked multiple horses and boxing them you would have hit 2 of 4 exactas ,investing $12 and returning $55 on a $1 unit. Don't see how you are criticizing me when my results so far are better than yours. You're just making excuses.

[Cardus]

Light, this thread is the basement of this board.

[Light]

I can't win. If I point out someone has a negative ROI, I am criticized for not putting up any picks. If I put up picks with a positive ROI,I am a low life.

The point of puting up picks wasn't so much to disprove TLG in a faceoff with his required style of picking horses. Remember I just finished dealing with CWD's and before that with those creating the free software. Alot of criticism says I talk the talk but don't walk the walk. That I'm not qualified to criticize others negative ROI. That I didn't win contests on this board and other boards.That I just made up the story of finishing 23rd in the whole country in a national handicapping contest. People say it was a fluke, a lottery, if it happened at all. Well here it is. The first guy on this board who could possibly post a positive ROI flat betting to win and you guys cant handle it.

[newtothegame]

Light...I know I may catch some flack for this...but YOU did post picks. And for that....thanks. As to the rest and how you were supposed to pick em...well thats for someone else to debate. From my end of it...., I thought that it was wrong of you to be critical and not post your own...youve done that. So I apologize in advance for being critical of you not posting picks.

[rjorio]

I don't know many people that feel finishing 23rd at anything is a huge accomplishment but maybe this is reflective of my life experiences. Just curious, what was your ROI for this tournament triumph you allege? I may be wrong,but I thought you had confided that your phone bill was higher than your award. Keep you eye on the prize maybe this year you can break into the top twenty.

[formula_2002]

Light...I know I may catch some flack for this...but YOU did post picks. And for that....thanks. As to the rest and how you were supposed to pick em...well thats for someone else to debate. From my end of it...., I thought that it was wrong of you to be critical and not post your own...youve done that. So I apologize in advance for being critical of you not posting picks.
I'm a bit late to this party.
I notice in some cases, there seems to be multiple win bets per race.
A fair way to judge the value of multipule win bets per race is to calculate the proportional odds bet roi.
actual wins/ sum (1/(odds+1)) =pbroi

[Light]

newtothegame

Thanks

rjorio

You try finishing 23rd amongst 300 people who beat out thousands of other people trying to qualify. Tell me how insignificant that is to do. Our ROI was $60 bet $156 returned flat betting $2 to win. +160% ROI. Prize for 23rd was $1500.



A fair way to judge the value of multipule win bets per race is to calculate the proportional odds bet roi.
actual wins/ sum (1/(odds+1)) =pbroi

What does that mean in layman's terms.

[Light]

Forgot that the tournament is w/p, so my ROI posted above is wrong. It's $120 invested, $156 returned 30% ROI.

[rjorio]

Congrats on your 23rd place tournament triumph,a respectable if not significant achievement. My question,concerning your ROI , was what you yourself won after you divided your prize with your partner and deducted the expenses of your venture ? Would you consider it significant ? We need a benchmark.

[formula_2002]

say you bet three horses in 1 race, 2-1,3-1and 4-1
they represent 78% of the *unfair betting pool

your expected number of wiinners is .78
say you lose that race but win the next race betting the same odds.
you win that race. actual wins =1
expected wins=.78x2= 1.56

your two race roi = 1/1.56 =.64

had you won both races then 2/1.56 = 1.28 roi

*unfair because of track take and breakage.

[Light]

rjorio

My friend had qualified for the tournament. I stayed home,he went with his wife to Vegas. The pot was divided by 25% for me,25% for him and 50% for his wife. The 50% for the wife is a long story.After the phone bill costs, I only netted $300.

After that he convinced me to sign up for the NCH tour to qualify for the 2011 contest. It seems they dont have the qualifiers at our track anymore nor on the Bris website. You have to go through the NHC tour online qualifiers which cost $100 to play 5 qualifiers for the year. So now I'm down to $200 profit. There is a 2 day qualifier this weekend through the tour. So if either of us makes the cut in any of these qualifiers, we will play as a team. Except this time there will be no wife and that was a very big problem for my partner who's handicapping skills were sorely compromised by his need to attend to his wife's mood. At one point when we were in position to end up in the top ten, he asked who I liked and I said I needed more time. He was so frantic about his wife's mood that he said,how about this one or how about that one. He just didn't care anymore, he said he needed to put in our picks so he could deal with her. He just threw horses in without thought. In retrospect he acknowledged we had plenty of time and that it cost us a better placing because he was freaked out about his wife being cooped up in a casino hotel instead of enjoying the sites.

[Light]

say you bet three horses in 1 race, 2-1,3-1and 4-1
they represent 78% of the *unfair betting pool

your expected number of wiinners is .78
say you lose that race but win the next race betting the same odds.
you win that race. actual wins =1
expected wins=.78x2= 1.56

your two race roi = 1/1.56 =.64

had you won both races then 2/1.56 = 1.28 roi

*unfair because of track take and breakage.

I'm still having a problem understanding that but some things dont make sense in the formula. Lets assume you won only 1 race as you say, but the horse was 6-1. Then when you say:

your two race roi = 1/1.56 =.64 That would be false. It would be a positive ROI. The formula does not seem to take into account the odds value, just the hit rate.

[formula_2002]

I'm still having a problem understanding that but some things dont make sense in the formula. Lets assume you won only 1 race as you say, but the horse was 6-1. Then when you say:

your two race roi = 1/1.56 =.64 That would be false. It would be a positive ROI. The formula does not seem to take into account the odds value, just the hit rate.

the method is intended to determine what the long term trend may be.
It's an attemp to "unskew" the results.

if you are betting 78% of the pool you have to be right 78% of the time just lose the track take.
Ofcourse, if you keep winning with the single 6-1 shots, no need to bet multipule horses since they will be underlays.

clear as mud right?

[Light]

OK but if a person bets all the horses per race in every race,he is right 100% of the time. According to your formula he would be doing very well. Correct?

[Rise Over Run]

rjorio

My friend had qualified for the tournament. I stayed home,he went with his wife to Vegas. The pot was divided by 25% for me,25% for him and 50% for his wife. The 50% for the wife is a long story.After the phone bill costs, I only netted $300.

After that he convinced me to sign up for the NCH tour to qualify for the 2011 contest. It seems they dont have the qualifiers at our track anymore nor on the Bris website. You have to go through the NHC tour online qualifiers which cost $100 to play 5 qualifiers for the year. So now I'm down to $200 profit. There is a 2 day qualifier this weekend through the tour. So if either of us makes the cut in any of these qualifiers, we will play as a team. Except this time there will be no wife and that was a very big problem for my partner who's handicapping skills were sorely compromised by his need to attend to his wife's mood. At one point when we were in position to end up in the top ten, he asked who I liked and I said I needed more time. He was so frantic about his wife's mood that he said,how about this one or how about that one. He just didn't care anymore, he said he needed to put in our picks so he could deal with her. He just threw horses in without thought. In retrospect he acknowledged we had plenty of time and that it cost us a better placing because he was freaked out about his wife being cooped up in a casino hotel instead of enjoying the sites.

In your spare time, do you write fiction novels?

[formula_2002]

OK but if a person bets all the horses per race in every race,he is right 100% of the time. According to your formula he would be doing very well. Correct?

No, he would lose the track takeout

if you sum 1/(odds+1) for all the horses in a race at a 15% takeout out track , it would sum to about 1.18
1/1.18 = .85 roi , which is the same a 1-.15

[Light]

In your spare time, do you write fiction novels?

No.

[ArlJim78]

Just when you think you've seen it all. good stuff here.

hard to imagine someone could complete a six race sequence with a positive ROI.

do you publish a newsletter?

[Light]

Yeah, I made a buck profit in 6 races. Better than most here and certainly better than TLG. That 4% ROI blows him away.

[PaceAdvantage]

I havent seen anyone here post a profit with their "cherry" picks. In fact they dont even keep track of them for good reason. So I don't think its that much easier than what you do.You may not have seen it, but I guarantee you it has happened. In fact, I remember someone doing it for 500 races. I bet many people remember that...

To read you patting yourself on the back as being "the first one to do it" is so pathetic, I don't know where to begin, so I won't...

[formula_2002]

You may not have seen it, but I guarantee you it has happened. In fact, I remember someone doing it for 500 races. I bet many people remember that...

To read you patting yourself on the back as being "the first one to do it" is so pathetic, I don't know where to begin, so I won't...
yep Steve Wolfson...I have 300 more races to go!!! :)

[melman]

PA---Remember PeoplePicker?? Back in the early days of your web site he claimed NO ONE could post 100 races and show a profit. I posted over 500 races and showed a profit. Think a couple of others did also. However since mine where harness races I guess they don't count. :lol: I think most long term members of this site remember Steve Wolfson and his software picking 500 and showing a profit. BTW that was with ONE horse per race.

[RXB]

However since mine where harness races I guess they don't count. :lol:

That's exactly right, Mel. :)

Gimme two bucks to win on Ben-Hur.

[melman]

RXB---My favorite catch driver of all time Mr C Heston in the bike. :D

[Light]

To read you patting yourself on the back as being "the first one to do it" is so pathetic, I don't know where to begin, so I won't...

I'm not claiming to have done it yet. Obviously 6 races is a joke. I said I could possibly do it. I originally intended to put up 100 races but I don't think I will continue.Already it is being downplayed and scapegoated as proving nothing,so why bother.

[whobet]

Loser,

Too much talking,

Not enough picking,

Putting your REP on the line,

they are beating you up, cause of your mode of operation,
beat up the others, then wimp out,

if you are a REAL horse player you will finish the job,

POST 100 races LIGHT

[Light]

Whobet

I only have 6 races posted and already TLg says it's not legit. PA doesn't seem to buy it. Others say I'm a creep for it. Not exactly the most inspiring reasons to continue.

[whobet]

You always wimp out

[the little guy]

Whobet

I only have 6 races posted and already TLg says it's not legit. PA doesn't seem to buy it. Others say I'm a creep for it. Not exactly the most inspiring reasons to continue.


It's not " legit " because you judge me on having to pick EVERY race while you pick and choose the races you want to play. So, unless you pick every race for a designated period of time at any racetrack, what you put up is meaningless. Once again, you believe you don't have to play by the same rules you expect others to play by. Nothing new.

By the way, don't sell yourself short, you're a creep for a whole cornucopia of reasons.

[tzipi]

If we are talking about the past contest, I will say this as my opinion. TLG had to put 9 races worth of picks hours way before the first race went off. He couldn't factor in weather changes,scratches,late equip changes,track bias, etc. I think he put up decent numbers considering the big disadvantages he was dealt. What handicappers or players have to bet races under those circurmstances?

I'm sorry but poking fun of TLG in that contest is like making fun of a good fighter for winning by decision and not by KO in a match that he had to have one hand tied his back. JMO :)

[PaceAdvantage]

PA doesn't seem to buy it.Try again Francis. I made no comment on your performance or anything else to do with your latest endeavor.

What I DID comment on was the fact that you seem to be claiming nobody has to date posted a large number of selections here, tracked them, and turned a profit.

[Light]

So, unless you pick every race for a designated period of time at any racetrack, what you put up is meaningless.

So if I do a Cmoore type contest with your selections and lose,your negative ROI is somehow vindicated? And if I beat you in a contest,you will say to the world "I suck" and promptly retire? There will be no change either way so its pointless for me to waste my time doing a throwdown.

I understand that it is a slight disadvantage to select horses the night before due to unavailability of scratches and track conditions. But at least 90% of the time, your top selections is the same pick as on your show which occurs after scratches and track conditions are known.And you still have a negative roi.

Why don't you do your fans a service. If you think you can do better cherry picking your spots,why dont you have an asterisk or something on the NYRA web page showing the races that you would actually bet or prefer. At least make a best bet pick. Listening to you on your broadcast it's hard to make heads or tails as to what you really like.

So if cherry picking transforms this game into a personal ATM,put some asterisks next to your fruits.

[the little guy]

I make no claims.....I leave that to you.

Your bitterness is sad.

[Light]

You claim you can pick winners,dont you?

[46zilzal]

You claim you can pick winners,dont you?
We all know that picking winners is just half the game

[Light]

46

That goes without saying. But TLG is now saying "I make no claims". What a copout.

[formula_2002]

46

That goes without saying. But TLG is now saying "I make no claims". What a copout.


I finally figured what this is all about!!
tlg and light are one and the same!!! :)

[RXB]

46

That goes without saying. But TLG is now saying "I make no claims". What a copout.

Light, if you're going to put down Andy, let's see you do better. Pick one year-round circuit, and post your picks for EVERY RACE in advance of the first race each day. If you can show a profit under those circumstances over the course of a full year, you are truly outstanding.

You won't take up the challenge, of course, since you know what will happen.

And if you can find any circumstance of Andy ever saying that he would show a profit within the above scenario, please bring it to our attention.

[Light]

And if you can find any circumstance of Andy ever saying that he would show a profit within the above scenario, please bring it to our attention.

He's in denial and is trying character assasination. Poor guy.