Kentucky Derby 1 Week Away

[Bignick63]

With just 1 week left before the running of the derby the field shapes up to be very deep. There is a lot of early speed signed on and there are many different running styles to deal with. Right now it's a big puzzle until the derby trial is run - letting us know just which horses will be included in the starting gate.

Always trying to handicap in advance i am wondering if Eskendereya will be able to adapt to the adventure he is about to undergo with a 20 horse field and so many running styles to contend with?

On the Beyer scale Esky is not supposed to lose. He is a "Double Top Fig horse" meaning his last 2 Beyer figs are higher than anyones figs in the field. Wonder what beyer would say about this Double Fig Angle in this race

[Hanover1]

The big ifs, including post and a clean break, decide most of these contests, pace scenario aside. Right now the track seems to be playing quite fast, yet a week is a long time for this factor. Im looking at Nobles Promise/stalking types at this time. Ice box fired a good one this trip as well, on his toes......

[JustRalph]

2 inches of rain in Louisville this weekend...... that should change it up a little

[46zilzal]

Each year has its last minute calamities and that is why it is a waste of time to handicap this race EARLIER than Friday night before when you know what the track is going to be like.

Do Buddha, AP Indy, I Want Revenge, Unbridled Song ring a bell?

[Tom]

Duh. They were all horses that were dealt with during Saturday's adjustments.

[upset]

Wonder what beyer would say about this Double Fig Angle in this race
Andy's shown to me that He doesn't trust his own numbers when it comes to the Derby. Carismatic and War Emblem both had the highest Beyer figures in their fields and Andy didn't mention either one. I have the racing forms for every triple crown race for a while but I don't need to look at them to remember that neither horse were in his top 4. If you bet both horses to win that would have canceled out 50 years of KD losers.

[Grits]

2 inches of rain in Louisville this weekend...... that should change it up a little

Man, that's really gonna jump tomorrow's opening day handle with 6 horse fields.

Wonder what they're scratches are lookin' like?

. . . . oh boy, can't be too promising.

[sandpit]

Each year has its last minute calamities and that is why it is a waste of time to handicap this race EARLIER than Friday night before when you know what the track is going to be like.

Do Buddha, AP Indy, I Want Revenge, Unbridled Song ring a bell?

Unbridled's Song at least made the course, and ran a good fifth, only about a neck out of third.

[acorn54]

just another horse race to me
if my computer comes up with a juicy longshot i will play it ,otherwise i will pass just like any other race where my computer doesn't come up with a bet.
i don't get into the romance of the horseracing game, strictly dollars and cents with me.

[sandpit]

just another horse race to me
if my computer comes up with a juicy longshot i will play it ,otherwise i will pass just like any other race where my computer doesn't come up with a bet.
i don't get into the romance of the horseracing game, strictly dollars and cents with me.

That's sad. As much as I like cashing winners, nothing can replace the special moments around many horses that I've had the great fortune to experience.

[SmartyLane]

That's sad. As much as I like cashing winners, nothing can replace the special moments around many horses that I've had the great fortune to experience.

Amen!! Strictly based on a computer would be very robotic and boring to me.
Just one mans opinion of course.

[markgoldie]

That's sad. As much as I like cashing winners, nothing can replace the special moments around many horses that I've had the great fortune to experience.
I can understand Acorn's point of view. The Derby and the TC for that matter are more of a social platform than a wagering opportunity. It's the "watercooler" topic that melds the alienated horseplayer to the general public- the one time they all come to you to ask, "Who do you like in The Derby?"

It's also something of an elitist's platform because there are those who think the only horses worth talking about are good horses, as if handicapping a cheap claimer at Rivers Downs is beneath contempt. However, as crapshoots go, one could scarcely invent something more random and still call it a horse race. Still, everyone will have their obligatory selections, so no opinion will go uncovered and someone will have crowing rights after the dice are thrown. Those who are wrong will head back to the handicapping drawing board for next year's attempt, like a college kid taking a course over after having failed it the first time around. But the fact is that there exists no customized Derby-selection strategy that can be refined to perfection. Tendencies? Yes. But tendencies that are as likely to go up in smoke as remain constant.

I also have to wonder about grown men who have horses as "heros" in their psyches. Acknowledement and admiration are one thing, but some of the talk, particularly about the undisputed champions like Secretariat, sounds like rhetoric that should be reserved for a god. Seems like this sort of adoration should be abandoned when the teen years hit us. Maybe it's just because our human heros are too often found sleeping with the hired help. I don't know.

Anyway, in my avanced years, I tend to look at the mania with bemusement more than anything else and I certainly respect Acorn's right to scorn the festivities. At least we have something to get the debate rolling and the blood pumping. And there is something to be said about that, I suppose.

[Canadian]

I also have to wonder about grown men who have horses as "heros" in their psyches. Acknowledement and admiration are one thing, but some of the talk, particularly about the undisputed champions like Secretariat, sounds like rhetoric that should be reserved for a god. Seems like this sort of adoration should be abandoned when the teen years hit us. Maybe it's just because our human heros are too often found sleeping with the hired help. I don't know.


I wouldn't say I feel sorry for you.... but watching a great horse... even watching clips of a great horse can send shivers up my spine. Great horses still excite..... I wouldn't want it any other way.

[Tom]

What he said. :ThmbUp:

[fmolf]

I can understand Acorn's point of view. The Derby and the TC for that matter are more of a social platform than a wagering opportunity. It's the "watercooler" topic that melds the alienated horseplayer to the general public- the one time they all come to you to ask, "Who do you like in The Derby?"

It's also something of an elitist's platform because there are those who think the only horses worth talking about are good horses, as if handicapping a cheap claimer at Rivers Downs is beneath contempt. However, as crapshoots go, one could scarcely invent something more random and still call it a horse race. Still, everyone will have their obligatory selections, so no opinion will go uncovered and someone will have crowing rights after the dice are thrown. Those who are wrong will head back to the handicapping drawing board for next year's attempt, like a college kid taking a course over after having failed it the first time around. But the fact is that there exists no customized Derby-selection strategy that can be refined to perfection. Tendencies? Yes. But tendencies that are as likely to go up in smoke as remain constant.

I also have to wonder about grown men who have horses as "heros" in their psyches. Acknowledement and admiration are one thing, but some of the talk, particularly about the undisputed champions like Secretariat, sounds like rhetoric that should be reserved for a god. Seems like this sort of adoration should be abandoned when the teen years hit us. Maybe it's just because our human heros are too often found sleeping with the hired help. I don't know.

Anyway, in my avanced years, I tend to look at the mania with bemusement more than anything else and I certainly respect Acorn's right to scorn the festivities. At least we have something to get the debate rolling and the blood pumping. And there is something to be said about that, I suppose.I agree with many of your points but i also relish taking a stab at all the fun money in the pools on the triple crown days...i never play pimlico except on preakness day....churchill only on kd day or the bc day if held there....belmont is my home track but i have also had some of my best days at the meadowlands or monmouth on the cheaper races.....also play the cheapies at finger lakes with good success...I also do not get attached or sentimental about horses most of my favorites are good honest hard knocking horses,both durable and consistent and not these fragile high priced primadonnas being bred now by the cognascenti!

[46zilzal]

Unbridled's Song at least made the course, and ran a good fifth, only about a neck out of third.
Knowing about the hoof condition, I would not have bet that with someone else's money.

[46zilzal]

|One of the historical aspects people forget, which helped the Kentucky Derby come to such prominence, was that track's using parimutuels long before the other major course gave up the bookies. With a steady stream of money coming in versus losing all to the books, they were able to offer big purses to lure the best. THIS along with Matt Winn's going around "selling" Kentucky colonel titles to all who would step up to get them....GOOD P.R. on par with PT Barnum......This was the discovery of Dorothy Ours in her good book on Man O'War.

Sam Riddle was a staunch traditionalist and did not take the bait however in 1920.

[plainolebill]

With the big field it's a great bettting opportunity. When Smarty Jones, the favorite, beat the 2nd favorite Lion Heart - two longshots filled out the super for ~40,000 bucks. Exactas and Tris routinely pay big.

Plus it's fun. :)