Ice Box sizzles

[joanied]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56616/ice-box-fires-46-25-half-mile-bullet?utm_source=BreakingNews&utm_medium=email

All I can say is....WOW :eek:

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Paddy O'Prado had a pretty great work today to...
Bloodhorse Report (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56617/paddy-oprado-pretty-spectacular-in-work)

Is it just me or does everyone seem to be handling the track well in their workouts?

[Hanover1]

Paddy O'Prado had a pretty great work today to...
Bloodhorse Report (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56617/paddy-oprado-pretty-spectacular-in-work)

Is it just me or does everyone seem to be handling the track well in their workouts?
Easy to look good at short distances on fast track. I am not looking into much regarding these fast works. Just attempts by connections to get them on the bit for the race. To answer your question directly, yes.
I have always felt that the Derby race, more than any other, because of traffic issues, is more of a trip type race than most any other, and does the speed hold for a 3yr old on the engine for the distance......?

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Easy to look good at short distances on fast track. I am not looking into much regarding these fast works. Just attempts by connections to get them on the bit for the race. To answer your question directly, yes.
I have always felt that the Derby race, more than any other, because of traffic issues, is more of a trip type race than most any other, and does the speed hold for a 3yr old on the engine for the distance......?

Yea I understand what you are saying. I just meant that normally you hear a few horses looking a bit unsettled at the track leading up to the derby. Haven't really heard any of that at this point so far.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Maybe sealed track.

[Stevie Belmont]

Do they mention if they breezes or handilys?

[bisket]

this is not good odds will go down. i'm hoping for 15 to 20-1 on him

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Yes the track was sealed.

Thoroughbred Times has all 4 workouts listed as breezes.

[sandpit]

Today was the first time we got any notable rain around here in 2-3 weeks, so I bet the track soaked it up pretty quick...CD drains very well, so I would expect the track has plenty of bounce to it even if it is listed as sloppy. Expecting rain overnight and Saturday as well.

[WinterTriangle]

this is not good odds will go down.

He was working bullets before the FL Derby, bisket.
47.20 for 4F....1/31

and (for some unknown reason) went off at 20-1. (his bsf's were too low or something?) and the mantra that Ice Box was beaten 12 lengths by Eskendereya. But he was feeling his oats that day, post parade showed it. What we are looking for is the horse who is gonna win on the day of May 1st....not 20 days ago. Watch the post parade carefully before you place your wager.

Was at the top of my (now defunct) Derby list on March 10th before the FL Derby, and looking good in the post parade just intensified my belief in him for that race. I kinda doubt you'll see those odds on him again....could be wrong, his running style doesn't seem to fit most people's derby dreams. :)

I never did get a chance to update/post my new ones for april / may. Too busy workin on my excel chart now. :(

bisket, lemme say this: It is obvious to me that you handicap differently than a lot of people. I saw glimpses of it when you were on Richard's Kid when he was a huge longshot. You made big bucks on that one! And there have been others. :) Go with what you see and don't let other people pull you off your horse(s) based on somebody else's method......... and don't look for agreement. Because, you will second guess yourself. If you're wrong, big deal, it's one race. The derby winner may, or may not be, the one with the dream trip and a favorable track condition to their running style.

Ditto for everyone else and of course, GL!

[bisket]

i posted my exacta box a few weeks ago, and it hasn't changed. lucky and ice box. tom was the handicapper that got the best odds on this guy. i just didn't like how he flattened out at the end of the foy. i guess he just needed that race to get a little fitter. i just don't want alot of these wise guys starting to tout him and the odds go down.

[tribecaagent]

Can you please elaborate on what exactly Ice Box looked like during the post parade?

I missed it and might be interested in betting him in the derby.

[Dahoss9698]

i posted my exacta box a few weeks ago, and it hasn't changed. lucky and ice box. tom was the handicapper that got the best odds on this guy. i just didn't like how he flattened out at the end of the foy. i guess he just needed that race to get a little fitter. i just don't want alot of these wise guys starting to tout him and the odds go down.

Unfortunately I think any hope of getting a really generous price on Ice Box is over. He was a trip handicappers dream in the Florida Derby and some of us were able to make very nice scores on him.

He flattened out in the FOY because he made a very premature far turn move into a ordinary pace. In the Florida Derby he got a fast pace to run at and recieved a much better timed ride by a very underrated jock. It also helped that Eskendereya wasn't in the race.

He's going to be on my multi race tickets and I think with the right set up and some luck, he has a very good shot at hitting the board and even winning. The problem is at what price are you willing to take. I just think with all of the buzz about him, his odds are going to be less than his actual chances.

[bisket]

ice box has a problem after the break and into the turn that if zito is able to get straightened out moves him up considerably. he won't be beholdened to any particular pace if zito is able to get the horse to overcome it. if not he's gonna need the fast early pace to help him, and will close enough for a piece or could still win. this horse has the chance to be the best of the whole bunch!!

[WinterTriangle]

Can you please elaborate

Tri, I already liked Ice Box. One of my gal friends trains horses (not racehorses) watched him in Saratoga where she lives, was impressed despite the fact he was losing his maidens), and our conversations re-surfaced when we were following derby preps. I wasn't altering my wager based on the post parade, but seeing his energy made me happy, thought he might be peaking. Most of the analysts noted that before the race, but I don't know if they *saw* what I *saw*. Zito gets them ready when they move to bigger races, interesting to watch.

Too many things to describe, and some are tied to the circumstance of the moment: like on the hottest most scorching sweltering day of the year, Big Brown didn't have a drop of sweat on him before the Belmont. His jockey, after the race, said he had "no horse under him." Good evaluators of horseflesh can read *energy*. (understand that would be a little woo-woo for some).

It's an acquired art that I'm *trying* to acquire, from those who really have a talent for evaluating body language-----friends who train, Ledbetter, Ainslie, Ron Correl, Trillis Parker, Geoffrey Hutson, paddock rats--- etc.

I would definitely get some of their videos /books and then see what you can see in the paddock and post parades. They are the teachers, not me. Form is not always found in just numbers.

I've developed a few of my own theories from watching at the track. Oversized 2 year olds are a no-wager for me. I always wait for them to mature, because they are usually awkward on the track, which you find out the hard way when they lose their maidens.

From the few conversations I've noticed here, physicality handicapping seems rather unpopular, so there aren't a lot of discussions about it. So----not really interested in getting into it again here. It turns into arguments about opinions.

[joanied]

That breeze from Ice Box was mindblowing...wish I'd seen it, but I am recording the Pursuit of the Crown shows on HRTV, and I'm sure they will show the breeze...they have been showing all of them...I guess that show they used to have 'The Works' isn't on anymore leading up to the Derby...anyway, one thing we need to consider with all the works is that they are almost all going fast...I assume the track is playing that way...so a guy needs to be able to see them.

One week to go:jump:

[bisket]

i'm sure they sealed the surface with the rain coming in so times were fast. i always look at workout times in relation the others that morning. i'll be looking at the race charts for the next week to see how the track is playing. it could be completely different next saturday than it is today. yes to be capable of running in the derby they are all fast. well at least most of them ;)

[miesque]

The horse I am intrigued with who worked yesterday is Paddy O'Prado who had been galloping well in the days leading up to that work and is on the improve and will likely be twice the price of Ice Box.

[SmartyLane]

The horse I am intrigued with who worked yesterday is Paddy O'Prado who had been galloping well in the days leading up to that work and is on the improve and will likely be twice the price of Ice Box.

Shhhhhhh.......the less this horse is talked about the better :)

[joanied]

Shhhhhhh.......the less this horse is talked about the better :)

Mums the word;)