Thorograph idea

[46zilzal]

One of our best and most innovative handicappers recently wrote this at our Sartin website and it is well worth a consideration. TK is a high school physics teacher and always thinks outside the box.

In reading the posts of the speed boys at Thorograph, one did an interesting
study that perked some interest. Here are his results: "

This is the fun part: Why doesn't everyone just forget about the 10 furlong
distance and handicap this race as a 9 furlong race? Dumb question, right?

With the exception of the meltdown race of 2005 and Giacomo, EVERY single horse that ran 1st AND 2nd had the calls at the 1/8th pole. In other words, whichever horses won the 9f race, won the Derby. How 'bout that?

First 2 places at the Stretch call at Churchill:
'09 Mine That Bird and POTN
'08 Big Brown and Eight Belles
'07 Street Sense and Hard Spun
'06 Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat
'05 Giacomo (6th at stretch call, 1st call was Clos. Argument who ran 2nd, and
Afleet Alex who ran 3rd
'04 Smarty Jones and Lion Heart

In other words, at the 9 furlong mark the winners were decided. Any horses
within the first 6 places all ran 1-2-3. That's why I play the super as
1-1-1/ALL. "

Interesting results, given the fact that we COULD change the distance to 9F, and see what kind of results we get?? Has anyone tried this?

[RichieP]

Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw had me post his method more than 3 years ago here:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2026

In 10f races cap the race to find the leader at the 8f mark and that is your horse. Check Bill Lyster's subsequent study of the previous 75 Big Caps and Kentucky Derbies using "Hat's" method in the thread.

This Sunday will mark 2 years that Jim passed on from this life. Still a giant among men and a true legend of the game

#:1:

[46zilzal]

Parallel discoveries abound in history just like Leibniz and Newton both came up with calculus.

If we looked hard enough maybe Ray Talbout or Huey Mahl may have said the same thing after reading it in a 1935 journal.....

[WinterTriangle]

Has anyone tried this?

Your theory on parallel discoveries must hold, I think I said the same thing in the Esky topic:

Actually, the "10F thing" may not be entirely important....when you think about it, whatever 4-5 horses are *there* across the track right at 9F will probably make up the superfecta.

Watching past derbies helps.