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View Full Version : 3YO taking on older horses early in the year


shhail2
04-22-2010, 02:24 PM
I dont know about you guys but ive made a killing over the past month or so betting against these overbet three year olds against older horses. They simply arent as mature and dont have what it takes to beat these older horses but people keep betting them down. It was especially been effective at indiana downs and evangaline the last couple of nights....

Tom
04-22-2010, 03:25 PM
I like the corollary to that, the 4 year olds of January facing older for the first time. My experience at FL was that the threes were often the better bets in the NWLT races.

I'll have to check out ID.

Valuist
04-23-2010, 08:20 AM
I would be careful re: this "angle". As we get toward the middle of the year, I almost guarantee you it won't work. One of my favorite angles in the last half of the year is to bet the ONLY 3 year old in a race. With maidens, you are looking at recycled garbage with older horses. In allowances and stakes, you have the 3 year olds still improving. Only exception to this rule would be open claiming, where 3 year olds are usually in deep.

lamboguy
04-23-2010, 08:25 AM
I dont know about you guys but ive made a killing over the past month or so betting against these overbet three year olds against older horses. They simply arent as mature and dont have what it takes to beat these older horses but people keep betting them down. It was especially been effective at indiana downs and evangaline the last couple of nights....
i am glad you are making money with this angle. i have been betting the exact opposite of that with 3 yo maiden's and nw2's vs older, but only in msw and allowance. usually the 4 yo is way over bet.


one of the worst bets you can make is betting a brand new 4 yo running in open company for the very first time no matter how good the form looks.

Robert Goren
04-23-2010, 09:36 AM
i am glad you are making money with this angle. i have been betting the exact opposite of that with 3 yo maiden's and nw2's vs older, but only in msw and allowance. usually the 4 yo is way over bet.


one of the worst bets you can make is betting a brand new 4 yo running in open company for the very first time no matter how good the form looks.:ThmbUp::ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: