WED 4/21/10 aqu r6

[kaboom]

Raffinator 6/1 ml prado up :cool:

[the little guy]

Why?

His last race was decidely mediocre against a subpar field ( to be kind ).

[tzipi]

I like Slight Fever off his last race at 10-1ML. Was just busting the whole way and finished strongly. Could win against these with his increasing all-around speed and Beyers. Coa also stays and with the class jump it might be a go. Well either he's here to win at a good price or DeMola wants to put a nice easy race into him and then drop him into a nice mdn clm 25K field and walk home next time out while keeping halfway decent odds if he gets cooked here. If he ran in a 25K Maiden Cl now he'd be 9-5 ML probably with that last race. Which is it? I wish I knew :D

Guess I'll be watching the tote tomorrow. Tough call.

[slew101]

No. 4 Gotta Go Round will be my play off his good 3rd in debut. Trainer/jockey won another maiden race on Sunday, although not the one I bet them on in the finale.

[the little guy]

Mineswept figures to be pretty tough to beat. He was good enough last year, had a useful and obvious prep at Gulfstream, and will almost certainly like the distance.

Yes, he's the favorite, but he's also a pretty likely winner.

[tzipi]

I agree, as I continue to look over the race, Mineswept looks better and better here. He was over his head in the Sleepy Hollow but the Belmont race at 7F was great with him losing ground halfway through and but coming back strongly in deep stretch. That race would probably swallow these with the added distance and my man Dominquez is now on. Also liking the long works Serpe's been putting in to him. Going to use Minswept with Slight Fever if he looks like a go on the tote and Ponte Vecchio. Looks like a race I'm just going to have some fun with for a few bucks.

I'll be waiting for the 8th race with Mr. Fantasy back and a great field entered. I want to see what Groomedforvictory does here. If Taggs got him a bit craked, which I think he might off his works, he can easily be up for win honors here. I'm really looking forward to watching this race.

[Maverick58034]

Mineswept figures to be pretty tough to beat. He was good enough last year, had a useful and obvious prep at Gulfstream, and will almost certainly like the distance.

Yes, he's the favorite, but he's also a pretty likely winner.

While I don't disagree with you, Philip Serge is 19-0-4-1 on Maiden Special Weight starters in their second race after 45+ days layoff over the last 4 years. Tough to take what should be a "fairly" short price with those numbers in mind.

I'd probably take a shot with :3: Pegasus Ena. I can't say there are any encouraging trainer angles, but he's making his third career start after improving from 52 BSF to 58 BSF in starts 1 to 2. Maybe more importantly, his first career start (Feb. 21) did not look all that spectacular (finishing 5th, 11 1/4 lengths back), but as it turns out, that race was incredibly "key":

(1) The winner, Castaneda, came back to win a 61k stakes race, putting up a 90 BSF, and then won his next start, OC25k/N2X, posting an 87 BSF.

(2) The place horse, Smokin Conrad, came back and got locked in a crazy speed duel (21.98, 44.90, 57.58 splits) and finished a better-than-looked second, posting a 66 BSF. Pegasus Ena also raced in this race (discussed more below).

(3) The show horse, Cayo Hueso, came back to wire a MSW field at Aqueduct 3 weeks later, posting a 71 BSF. Then, he ran in a 50k ALW N1X and posted a 70 BSF out of the 10 post, finishing 5th, 3 1/2 back.

(4) The fourth place finisher, Duke of Napes, stretched out to 1 1/16 M and scored in MSW at Aqueduct, posting a 66 BSF with a "Long hard drive."

(5) Pegasus Ena finished 5th.

(6) The sixth place horse, Fiddler's Chaparito, came back to run a strong 2nd in the slop in MSW at Aqueduct (going 2nd by 1/2, 2nd by 1/2, 2nd by a head, 2nd by 1/2), posting a 72 BSF in the process. In his next race, he faded to 5th, posting a 69 BSF, but "Steadied sharply turn," so perhaps ran better-than-looked.

(7) The last place horse, Jayburger, showed nothing (30+ lengths back the entire race) and has not raced since.

So it would have looked like Pegasus Ena would have been primed for his next race out, but he ran into a pretty hard speed duel between Smokin Conrad (2nd in the 21Feb race) and Gerard Loves Beer (as discussed above). What I found encouraging is that Pegasus Ena stayed competitive throughout the race - 5th by 5 1/2, 5th by 6, 4th by 7, 4th by 6 1/4 - particularly because he "raced in midpack, advanced four wide and rallied mildly." Adjusting for beaten lengths, Pegasus Ena still ran a sub :23 first 2F, sub :46 4F, sub :59 5F, and slightly over 1:12 for 6F for a finale. I'm disappointed by the slower final furlong, but I can't say I'm surprised, given how close he was to a scorching pace.

At 10-1 M/L, why not?

[slew101]

Tough break on Raffinator at the gate. I thought it was my horse who went down. Might well have been, getting an easy lead and quitting.