Horse's peak years

[John]

Peak years

I was asked, what year in a horse’s career is a horse at the peak of his game. I had no answer because I can think of great 3 year olds, and great 4 year olds. Also some good 5 and 6 years.

The question then “the average horse is at his peak at what age??? Tough question

[Robert Goren]

late in their 3 yo season.

[46zilzal]

We rarely get to see that since any of them worth a $$$$$ are hustled off to the breeding shed.

Since horses are only physically mature at 5 we get to see the Little League all the time

[DeanT]

In this day and age this is a hard question, imo. Horses are stoked for the TC, then retired. In addition some horses run through some tweaks to accomplish that, and are raced tough early when possibly not at their best.

In the absence of the Triple Crown, or being rushed or pushed for stud money - i.e. just letting a horse run when he wants - I think between start 10 and 20 he/she is best. Sometime in their 4 year old season maybe(?)

[John]

late in their 3 yo season.

Thanks for answering Bob, Why would you say " LATE in their 3yr season " when the Ky Derby is run in early May. Also who peaks better at 3 yr Male or female. [ so many questions. ] :bang:

[lamboguy]

i would say the horses that run at 5 are at their peaks. lots of great horses got better with age like FOREGO, he was better at 7 than he was at 5. if horses are not abused they can run a long long time. there was a horse that won in new york that was 13. every single horse is precious, it is life.

[kenwoodallpromos]

When their heart and respiratory system matures.

[LottaKash]

From the "Harness" side of things I can only speak on this, but I do believe that, most Harness-horses will peak and take his "personal" final-time record, most likely at the age of "4", this is especially true for the ones who may, for whatever reason, have been late to the dance....Also, many others, will take will take a record at 5 yo.... And 6-yo's could be more true than uncommon....

In my search for winners, I am always on the alert for the 4's & 5's, especially the ones who have changed barns recently and are starting to get good...Perhaps, protracted sickness/lameness, mishandling or mis-management of the horse may have prevented him from showing his peak-stuff, earlier on..

Currently, at the Meadowlands, there is a horse named "Pilgrims Toner" that is on a six race winning streak vs. the best horses on the grounds, and he took his record this year at the age of 6, by
over 3-seconds...(New barn)...I see this all the time...

The trouble with racing, on both sides of the breeds, thanks to greed, we usually never get to see what a True-Champion 3yo would be able to do at 4 & 5...

best,

[Robert Goren]

Thanks for answering Bob, Why would you say " LATE in their 3yr season " when the Ky Derby is run in early May. Also who peaks better at 3 yr Male or female. [ so many questions. ] :bang: It is just an opinion by someone who puts his money where his mouth is. By the end of their 4 yo year most are in decline. I also think 3 yo mature a lot sooner than most people think. I have no problem betting 3 yo right now against older horses. I also think that there no reason not run fillies and mares against the males ever. I have no studies to prove this, just years of trying to pick winners. JMO

[WinterTriangle]

if horses are not abused they can run a long long time.

One of my favorite oldsters to wager on, King of Speed, 105-24-15-15. He just won again at Lone Star on turf, before that he won at 1-1/16 at FG on dirt, lost 2 after he won at 1-1/8 at FG. Wins at Arlington, whereever. :) Put his feet down on the track in 2001, and in 2010 is still winning.

I think he just turned 11 this year. :) Foaled in 1999 in KY. Calhoun has him.

[ManeMediaMogul]

It has been stated many times that a Thoroughbred horse is at its best at ages four, five and six.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

A good two year old usually peaks at 2 or 3. A horse who wasn't rushed and had a mediocre beginning generally peaks at 5. Of course, there a loads of exceptions to the rule.

[PhantomOnTour]

Take the top 20 Beyers in sprints, routes & turf since 1992 (i think that's when DRF began printing them) and see what age the horses were that earned them. That may settle the question, and would be a very interesting study, imo.....anyone wanna take on the assignment?

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Take the top 20 Beyers in sprints, routes & turf since 1992 (i think that's when DRF began printing them) and see what age the horses were that earned them. That may settle the question, and would be a very interesting study, imo.....anyone wanna take on the assignment?
A better way to go is just take 200 horses or more and figure out what year they did their lifetime Beyer (I would stick with dirt only, and distances of 6 furlongs or up).
I guess you need to stipulate that the horse ran at least once as a 6 year old or older too.
That would eliminate a lot of Triple Crown horses :)

[John]

Take the top 20 Beyers in sprints, routes & turf since 1992 (i think that's when DRF began printing them) and see what age the horses were that earned them. That may settle the question, and would be a very interesting study, imo.....anyone wanna take on the assignment?

Good thought Phantom, I wonder if any handicapping author ever porduced a paper method or a software that could lead you to a horse ready to peak. You might have to follow a horse for several races before it wins. Some horses [ all ages ] run a very high Beyer and then run poorly next few starts.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Of course, some horses who didn't run on turf very often at a younger age perk up and have what seems like a rebirth on turf for a spell, when given a later chance and in good enough physical form to do their best at that time. No stats, just observations.

[FenceBored]

Take the top 20 Beyers in sprints, routes & turf since 1992 (i think that's when DRF began printing them) and see what age the horses were that earned them. That may settle the question, and would be a very interesting study, imo.....anyone wanna take on the assignment?

I actually did something like that a little while ago, but looking at the fastest raw times listed in the ARM for various distances. It worked out to be the fastest 54 (one table only had 53) times for each major distance 1991-2008. If that would interest you, I'll dig it up.

[thespaah]

It has been stated many times that a Thoroughbred horse is at its best at ages four, five and six.I'm with ya on that..
Too often we see talented horses at two and three burned out by rigorous training and racing shecdules.
If I were a trainer or better still an owner, I would take a pass on the glamor and glitz of three year old campagins and groom my horses for the biggest grade one's for older horses and of course the Breeder's Cup.
I'd rather be able to race a horse for three or four solid seasons, give the fans a chance to enjoy them for more than one or two grueling pressure packed years.
But that's just me.

[Dave Schwartz]

An experienced Sheets player would certainly have a strong opinion on this.

[ronsmac]

I'd say late in the 4 yr old season is the absolute peak.

[therussmeister]

It seems most people are thinking only about the best horses. Claimers may peak at a different age than stakes horses.

[ranchwest]

I'm amazed nobody has mentioned John Henry. He was still a G1'er at 9. At 11, they considered bringing him back to the track, but after a setback they didn't have confidence in maintaining his health.

I've seen a 14 yo win. I don't know, maybe older. The funny thing about horses 12 and over, not many folks want to claim them.

So, I don't know what the peak for a horse is, but there are horses that do well at an older age.

[Hanover1]

Good thought Phantom, I wonder if any handicapping author ever porduced a paper method or a software that could lead you to a horse ready to peak. You might have to follow a horse for several races before it wins. Some horses [ all ages ] run a very high Beyer and then run poorly next few starts.
If you find this software and it works, send me a copy... :rolleyes:

[John]

If you find this software and it works, send me a copy... :rolleyes:

We all have software that will crunch numbers and rank the best on top, But how many of us will look at the ranked horse's age and say, he is a 10 year old, is that too old or he just turned 3, is that too young to be running with older horses. It makes you think what a tough game this really is.

[46zilzal]

I'm amazed nobody has mentioned John Henry. He was still a G1'er at 9. At 11, they considered bringing him back to the track, but after a setback they didn't have confidence in maintaining his health.

I've seen a 14 yo win. I don't know, maybe older. The funny thing about horses 12 and over, not many folks want to claim them.

So, I don't know what the peak for a horse is, but there are horses that do well at an older age.
Our harness track used to hold a stakes race limited to 14 year olds on December 31 to honor those no longer able to race the next day in a special race.....CLASSY move.

[FenceBored]

Sifting the numbers in the tables of Fastest Times at Common Distances (1991-2008) pp 917-924 of the 2009 American Racing Manual:

Dirt


Age 6f 7f 8f 8.5f 9f 10f Total PCT
2 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 0.9%
3 7 9 11 10 12 8 57 17.9%
4 18 27 21 18 21 27 132 41.4%
5 14 9 13 18 16 14 84 26.3%
6+ 12 5 9 7 5 5 43 13.5%
Total 53 51 54 53 54 54 319





Turf



Age 8f 9f 10f 12f Total PCT
2 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%
3 1 5 3 1 10 4.6%
4 24 21 18 18 81 37.5%
5 13 19 21 22 75 34.7%
6+ 16 9 12 13 50 23.1%
Total 54 54 54 54 216 100.0%




AWS



Age 6f 7f 8f 8.5f 9f 10f Total PCT
2 3 2 2 5 0 0 12 4.1%
3 21 21 17 21 17 3 100 34.5%
4 16 19 26 15 19 9 104 35.9%
5 8 10 4 9 15 5 51 17.6%
6+ 5 2 5 4 3 4 23 7.9%
Total 53 54 54 54 54 21 290

[Johnny V]

Peak years

I was asked, what year in a horse’s career is a horse at the peak of his game. I had no answer because I can think of great 3 year olds, and great 4 year olds. Also some good 5 and 6 years.

The question then “the average horse is at his peak at what age??? Tough question
IMO, I would say for the "average horse", give me a 5 yr. old gelding day in and day out anytime.

[46zilzal]

these numbers are skewed in that very few horses ever run at 5 and over.....Don't give them the opportunity, and no wonder they don't show up in the statistics!

[Robert Goren]

these numbers are skewed in that very few horses ever run at 5 and over.....Don't give them the opportunity, and no wonder they don't show up in the statistics!Don't you suppose there is reason for that?

[46zilzal]

Don't you suppose there is reason for that?
yes, drugs huge purses for babies.....

In Europe there are entire fields of horses 6 and up all the time.

[castaway01]

We all have software that will crunch numbers and rank the best on top, But how many of us will look at the ranked horse's age and say, he is a 10 year old, is that too old or he just turned 3, is that too young to be running with older horses. It makes you think what a tough game this really is.

The sarcasm was probably because you asked if anyone has ever come up with software that determined when a horse will run a peak effort, when essentially what anyone handicapping any race is trying to determine is who will run their best (at their peak) that day. So, yes, everyone is trying...obviously it can't be age-based.

As far as the original question, I'd say 4 years old would be the average peak, but there's a wide variation and we've all seen claimers run well into their "advanced" years.

[John]

Interesting discussion, All posts made a point Thanks to all who posted.

:) :) :)

[HollywoodParkStwd]

Peak years

I was asked, what year in a horse’s career is a horse at the peak of his game. I had no answer because I can think of great 3 year olds, and great 4 year olds. Also some good 5 and 6 years.

The question then “the average horse is at his peak at what age??? Tough question

It depends on the horse! No two horses are the same. First Landing was one of the greatest two year olds in the history of the sport, but the average racing fan on this board would say 'First Who-What?'. He was his best at 2.

Cigar never ran at 2, lost MANY times at 3- he only won 2 out of 9 if I remember right- then at 4 Mott got him and he became a legend.

There are tons of examples-it depends on the horse.