What I would like to see in a public handicappers win pool performance

[formula_2002]

What I would like to see in a public handicappers win pool performance.
It seems many public handicappers publish 3 picks for all races.
I’d like to see their roi’s for a proportional odds bet

Subtotal Sum 1/ (odds+1) for each race and grand total sum for all daily races and total sum for meet performance.
They should be published in the format:
Actual wins / expected wins = pb roi, where expected wins = 1/ ((odds) +1).
The expect wins will be affected by track takeout, so they should include a note about the win pool track take out.

It’s not that I expect them to show a profit but it seems a fair way to judge one handicapper’s performance to the general public and within their own community.
To compare their performance to the public, it would be a good idea to sum the public’s top three choices in the same fashion as the public handicappers and publish in the same format.

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Of course a reader’s interest would be to find those handicappers that best beat the tracks win pool takeout.

[Robert Goren]

Why? Nobody bets them anyway. It is part of the show.;)

[Light]

Nobody bets them anyway.

Not from my experience. At my local west coast racetrack,many people use the local newspapers and/or tip sheets sold at racetracks. Until they went computerized,Larry Stumes used to publish his picks in the SF Chronicle and was very popular,even though he had a negative ROI. I visted Hawthorne a few years back and was shocked at the much higher number of people using public handicappers and tip sheets than the bay area. My uncle who still lives in Brooklyn,used to go everyday to the OTB and play according to the picks in the NY Daily News and still does when his health allows him to play.He had a system he used that he felt was successful. For example if only 1 of the newspaper handicappers selected a horse in his top 3,he keyed that horse,usually at good odds. At one point I used the "dot system". On this website,we know people who use a certain public handicapper's picks. You are vastly underestimating their use. I think alot of people especially old timers are old school and not sophisticated enough or dont care to be so complicated in selecting horses. So they rely on others to do the dirty work. There is still a strong market for it.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Racing keeps some things as secret as the US Govt keeps the location of the outer space aliens who crashed at Rosilyn NM and their offspring!
Do you really think racing wants to reveal the ROI of its best handicapping experts?
Racing needs to convince the old horseplayers that profiting is easy with monter favorites, and convince the potential newbies that there are enough longshots coming in first to profit from betting wildly!!

[46zilzal]

I know several public handicappers who have to make their choices QUICKLY without knowing track conditions or late scratches.......THEY often tell me that the next day, after having looked again at the races closer to race time when more is known, the choice would have been different.

They work under time limits that we don't have.

[DeanT]

I don't know why there is such a focus from some quarters on "picks". No one gets rich off picks because catching winners is almost irrelevant. If a public handicapper's picks are ROI positive for a time, he/she is sure to go lower over the next period.

I think it does more for the game to have cappers like Mark P and Andy C explaining rationale based on the tote, like they do on television, unlike many other handicappers. Yesterday's talked about race on another thread (AQU 4th) was a prime example. The one horse was overbet based on negatives. it does not mean she can not win, or will not win, just that the odds do not reflect the horses chances. That is not news to us here, but to folks who are newer to the game it is a good lesson learned and I think helps them understand the pari-mutuel game.

Give me a public capper with a 0.92ROI and a 28% hit rate, over a 40% hit rate and 0.84ROI guy or gal any day of the week. 0.92 is pretty balls out, imo, and a lower hit rate guy shows me he is price shopping, which is what we all need to do to get a shot at beating the egregious take.

[formula_2002]

thanks for the commnets.

It seems to me that in this high tech, data based orientated horse racing world, something is missing in public handicapping.

Top three pick format w/ some comentray goes back as far as I can remember (and that is saying a lot)..I woud think there is better ( or atleast different) to be had...

[46zilzal]

NONE of the public handicappers I know uses any computer....Our DRF columnist makes great use of it but he is the exception.

[Robert Goren]

If some wants to this more power to them. It just seems that there are some people who want someone else to do all the work. JMO

[therussmeister]

If I were to become a public handicapper, or for that matter post picks here, all my picks would be accompanied by minimum acceptable odds. That's the only way to go.

[CBedo]

Top three pick format w/ some comentray goes back as far as I can remember (and that is saying a lot)..I woud think there is better ( or atleast different) to be had...I thiink the top 3 format is more marketing than anything. If you post three horses per race for every race, you have a decent chance of one of your picks winning. It's not about value (unfortunately) to most of the betting public.

[kid4rilla]

No good to post the ROI to the public since it would all look bad. Probably a good idea to show hot streaks or recent bomb selections to encourage wagering.

If Mark Johnson is 10 for 10 with his best bet of the day. Everyone will use his best bet today, especially in exotics. Those who might not have squeeked out a couple bucks would feel more compelled to do so.

[Johnny V]

I really don't think the public handicappers are as relevant today as they once were. Years ago you would see guys walking around with the racing section of the newspapers, I really do not see that very much anymore, many papers do not even have a racing section any longer.
I think a couple of racing papers and magazines (the old Turf and Sport Digest ?) used to track the public handicappers and they were pretty low in the ROI department. They stopped doing it maybe because they didn't want to embarrass them any longer.
I had a friend of mine years back who was a sportswriter and one day he was told to fill in for awhile and make the racing picks. He had no idea what to do. I would think that goes on every now and then, like who is making the morning line when the ML oddsmaker is sick or on vacation.
Anyone who relies on a public handicapper IMO is making an error. I can do just as well and better by picking my own losers.

[jamey1977]

Most are a joke. The Daily Racing Form handicappers are damn good. They were not hired for nothing. I pick a crazy overlay and it's always good to check and see if they have it in their Top 3. If they don't. I won't bet. I hate betting an 8 to 1. That gets the hell beat out of him. The newspaper handicappers, all one should do, is just bet their highest overlay under 8 to 1. Works better than any underlayed favorite. Most people just play exactas. Everytime I'm at the track, in person. They're all saying what was it. 6, 2 ? 6, 4.? I say ,"I bet to win. I don't care who comes in second." People have to bet to win. Exactas are dummy money. A 20 to 1 proposition.