did looking at lucky show he's fast enough to win the derby

[bisket]

as everyone is aware of speed figs don't seem to do justice to an effort on poly track. when a horse switches from poly to dirt their beyers seem to improve. this brings us to looking at lucky. who arguably has the most complete resume of all the entries in the derby, but his speed figs seem lacking when compared to others. i guess having some familiarity with the aspects of poly track may be helpful in determining if lucky cuts the mustard for your derby wagers. one thing that i've noticed from my own experience with poly is horses really only have one run on the surface, and its tough on horses that have the ability to accelerate on more than one occassion inside a race. lucky has shown to have the ability to accelerate multiple times and win on poly track. which in my opinion really shows his class. his one dirt race showed his grit, but i don't think we've seen his real ability yet on the surface. in my opinion lucky probably has the best chance to win this race.

[PaceAdvantage]

when a horse switches from poly to dirt their beyers seem to improve.Not in Zenyatta's case.

[lamboguy]

Not in Zenyatta's case.
great point, she only runs to the level of her competition to beat them. her natural dirt fields have not been that stellar.

[MNslappy]

as everyone is aware of speed figs don't seem to do justice to an effort on poly track. when a horse switches from poly to dirt their beyers seem to improve. this brings us to looking at lucky. who arguably has the most complete resume of all the entries in the derby, but his speed figs seem lacking when compared to others. i guess having some familiarity with the aspects of poly track may be helpful in determining if lucky cuts the mustard for your derby wagers.

This paragraph reminds me of the debate that went on regarding POTN last year, who ran mostly (exclusivey?) on poly and who's speed figs topped out in the mid-90s if I remember right.

[bisket]

i liked pon last year, but i just didn't like his lead into the derby. i actually thought pon had the chance to maybe be the best 3 year old last year. zayat left baffert in the summer of 2007 over the poly track issue. pon was given to baffert after the juvie cup at the end of 2008. it was baffert's chance to get some more horses from an owner that was spending lots of dough at the sales. so baffert didn't have the luxury of bringing pon into the derby the best way he would have liked. baffert had the pressure in december through april to win with pon to impress the owner to give him some more horses. yes this is a similar situation, but i think many more handicappers are more excepting of the premise that some horses will improve when moving from poly to dirt. although some of this "improvement" may be in the eye of the beholder. it may be that a horse runs just as well on both surfaces, but figures are just higher on dirt overall than they are on poly.

[joanied]

Like many, I'm not ready to put down my picks...but I've had Lucky at #1 since last year, and so far, I haven't seen anything to change my mind. I also stuck with Pioneer last year...but a little birdie screwed that up:D

[gm10]

This paragraph reminds me of the debate that went on regarding POTN last year, who ran mostly (exclusivey?) on poly and who's speed figs topped out in the mid-90s if I remember right.

I remember writing last year that his BSF were completely wrong. His top 3 finish was completely logical imo. He was a good horse on dirt and poly who fell apart after the KD.

[bisket]

I remember writing last year that his BSF were completely wrong. His top 3 finish was completely logical imo. He was a good horse on dirt and poly who fell apart after the KD.
they went to the well to often in my opinion, but i think circumstance may have contributed to that. seeing as how zayat's money problems were brought to light after pon was retired. pon was probably zayat's most valuable asset. he was a homebred so he not only raised his value by winning all those races last winter and spring, but he raised the value of his moms future foals. going to the preakness was the straw that broke the camel's back imop

[bisket]

i'm feeling even better about lucky's chances after his nice work ysterday morning.

[joanied]

i'm feeling even better about lucky's chances after his nice work ysterday morning.

He's gonna have too much weight to carry, bisket...we're both ridin' him...I've been on him since last year, and I plan on staying in the saddle:) :jump:

[Relwob Owner]

I remember writing last year that his BSF were completely wrong. His top 3 finish was completely logical imo. He was a good horse on dirt and poly who fell apart after the KD.


You say you remember writing that his BSF's were wrong....what proof do you have that they were wrong? He led up to the Derby with Beyers of 95, 90, and 96 and then ran a 95 in the Derby, showing that his Beyers were not "completely wrong" as you say and were actually right on target........

[Tom]

I think LAL is a major player here.

PON - I adjusted his Beyers using CJs formula nd he was better than he appeared in the Form, and he was actually my major bet.

[Cadillakin]

Not in Zenyatta's case.
That's odd. I'm looking at her first few races on synthetics. She got an 87, an 88, then a 94 Beyer number. Then she shipped to the Oaklawn dirt and crushed champion Ginger Punch and got a 104 Beyer number.

Isn't 104 higher than 94?

[PhantomOnTour]

To answer the original question: yes, I think Lucky has proven he's fast enough to win the Derby. Outside of Eskendereya, his 98 Beyer in the Rebel is right there with the other top figs: Endorsement-101 and Sidney-100. Other than Jackson Bend's 100 last year he is just as 'fast' as everyone but the big guy. He improves a few lengths and Esky regresses a few lengths and he's right there. No question. Outside of a secret angle or bad works at CD or just a hunch, there is no reason to leave him out of any slot in your Derby exotics, imo.
My question is: despite a top Beyer of 94 is Mission Impazible fast enough to win this?

[WinterTriangle]

LAL has been training for this the longest, kinda a foregone conclusion if there is bumping, squeezing, and shuffling, he can take the heat.

[/quote]when a horse switches from poly to dirt their beyers seem to improve.[/quote]

Not even gonna touch this one. :D


Phantom, Mission Impazible if he can get past that 9F mark could be on the ticket. He improved going from OP to FG and I remember liking him in the paddock on inspection at OP. He's had 4 races on dirt. If I play a superfecta I might put him on. I have to finish my excel chart over the weekend to decide about him. Having Maragh doesn't hurt, IMHO. There are things to like....

The only one that is giving me apoplexy right now is Awesome Act because I can't judge him based on that ride in the Wood.:mad:

[PaceAdvantage]

That's odd. I'm looking at her first few races on synthetics. She got an 87, an 88, then a 94 Beyer number. Then she shipped to the Oaklawn dirt and crushed champion Ginger Punch and got a 104 Beyer number.

Isn't 104 higher than 94?I love how you guys never fail to use the "crushed champion Ginger Punch" line, even though it's over two years old now, and even though Brownie Points also crushed Ginger Punch in that same 2008 Apple Blossom. (Brownie who?)

In any event, 2010 seems to have cancelled out Zenyatta's 2008 synth to dirt speed fig improvement, wouldn't you say?

[Bignick63]

With Eskendereya getting higher Beyers than everyone else in his last 2 starts he became a "double top fig" on the Beyer scale - meaning he's not supposed to lose. I'd like to hear what Beyer himself things about that.

[bisket]

With Eskendereya getting higher Beyers than everyone else in his last 2 starts he became a "double top fig" on the Beyer scale - meaning he's not supposed to lose. I'd like to hear what Beyer himself things about that.
i'm with you on this, but this is the derby. let me put it to you this way. pick any 10 of these colts for the preakness, and esky would definately be in my exacta box. in this race with his preps being so easy, and odds so short i'm going to go in another direction. it will beinteresting what beyer does, but i'm sure he's gonna go with his figs. this race reminds very much like the situation in 2007 with street sense and curlin. i went with street sense for the exact same reasons i'm going for lucky. in 2007 i left curlin out of the trifecta, and didn't hit the exotic. esky will be in the tri box.

[WinterTriangle]

what proof do you have that they were wrong?


PON - I adjusted his Beyers


In any event, 2010 seems to have cancelled out Zenyatta's 2008 synth to dirt speed fig improvement, wouldn't you say?

I guess it depends

[bisket]

if everyone is not aware. we have a daschund named lucky. he's quick little bugger. i wonder if lucky the horse eats his poop like lucky the dog? ;) i wonder if thats part of baffert's "program" :D

[PhantomOnTour]

I love how you guys never fail to use the "crushed champion Ginger Punch" line, even though it's over two years old now, and even though Brownie Points also crushed Ginger Punch in that same 2008 Apple Blossom. (Brownie who?)

In any event, 2010 seems to have cancelled out Zenyatta's 2008 synth to dirt speed fig improvement, wouldn't you say?

Huh? Was Mike supposed to drive her hard to the wire so she won the Apple Blossom by a 'Rachel-like' 12 lengths? Winning is enough. Her foes were woefully overmatched and she did what she needed to do to beat them. You think she's regressed because she didn't equal her 2008 fig? If her opponents had pushed to that level I am sure she would have responded.
EX: Why would a top notch sprinter beat a mid level Stks field in 1:08 when 1:09 and 3/5 will do?

[jbrown007]

i'm with you on this, but this is the derby. let me put it to you this way. pick any 10 of these colts for the preakness, and esky would definately be in my exacta box. in this race with his preps being so easy, and odds so short i'm going to go in another direction. it will beinteresting what beyer does, but i'm sure he's gonna go with his figs. this race reminds very much like the situation in 2007 with street sense and curlin. i went with street sense for the exact same reasons i'm going for lucky. in 2007 i left curlin out of the trifecta, and didn't hit the exotic. esky will be in the tri box.

I understand where are you going with on this because I loved Curlin but had to take Street Sense in that derby, however, there is absolutely no comparison between street sense and Lookin. Where should i begin. Street sense did not like the poly but loved the dirt(you usually do not find horses that run big on both surfaces). He had experience at churchill and LOVED the track. Street sense had a very SHORT explosive stride. Lookin has a longer stride(still explosive), Lookin has proven he is not a fan of the inside/rail which is where street sense stole the derby. I can guarantee you that Lookin will be wide the entire race, no where near the rail. Lookin still may end up being my win bet but strictly because ESKY's odds could drop below 5-2.

Comparing Curlin and Esky is another big mistake. Esky has run bigger numbers then Curlin. Esky has 2yo experience and a lot of races under his belt. I do agree the horses are similiar but Esky has a bit more tactical speed.

[joanied]

Amazing...a thread about Looking at Lucky...now another thread about rachel & Zenny :bang:

According to the thread title...yes, IMO, Lucky is fast enough to win the Derby:) :) :)