Yonkers Fifth ML Fav Fri. 4/16

[SchagFactorToWin]

So I like Yankee Vigilante last night in Yonker's fifth race. He's the 3:1 morning line favorite, but that doesn't bother me because I'm playing him in some exactas and looking for some value there. I'm watching the tote because I have minimum payouts for my combos. Yankee's win line at 0MTP is 16:1. At 0+9MTP (remember, this is Yonkers- where 0MTP means 10MTP) it's at 6:1. I'm figuring I missed something but can't see anything. Was some change announced late that I didn't hear?

[LottaKash]

Scag, I believe that I can give you a "fair" evaluation of the situation....But, please keep in mind, that it requires a lotta-words to say what my brain can surmise in 30-seconds or so....

I didn't play YR last nite, so I went to the program/race, and to the charts of that race, to get the skinny on that event..

Yankee Vigilante, would've caught my attention in that affair also...He seemed to have all the ingredients of a worthy contender in that race...The only horse that showed a win in the last 5-races was the eventual winner of last nites race, the #1-at 6/5, and the others were just out of shape field fillers, imo...

Now, YV, had been claimed for $20K in his 4th start back, from a winning trainer to a fair-trainer, and in his 3d start back of this one ,he was thought enough of by the connections to boost him into the $30K's, where he raced evenly in both of those races, suggesting that he was either overmatched or that he had only mediocre good form...I would've said that because of the post position disadvantages in those two races, that he was overmatched...And then, in his last race, he was dropped back into a conditioned race (nw500L6) with a much lesser purse value and to the $30K-clm's, imo, and now he was a much better fit....So, in that race, he did what I "label" an "A/W" race (A is for Angle and W is for changing his racing style from a closer type, to a Wire-to-Wire try)...He took an ez lead to the 1/4, in that race, and was involved in a BB (Big Battle) from the half-mile right into the lane, where he began to lose ground, fading to 4th in a very slow last 1/4 of 30:1....His closing 1/4's in his previous races to that one were 28:1, 28:4 & 29:3....

When a horse changes his racing style in his most previous race to an A/W, many things can happen the following week, The horse will improve, and will go on and do well or at least better, as this sharpening race was just what the horse needed, or often times the horse will "bounce" from that most taxing effort....The clincher in this post-mortem, I believe that the race was over for him early on in that A/W race, because of the 1st-1/4, which was 27:2, which for him was "way-out" of his comfort zone and his usual style of running....And when you combine this with the BB that took place soon after that big 1st-1/4, well it becomes obvious that it tooks it toll on him...

I believe that with all my heart, as this horse was further dropped into a NW400L6, and that should have spelled "Go-Time" to me....But as it turned out, the horse did "bounce" and it was quite evident at the finish line, as well as YV's attempt at trying to win....YV in last nite's race, from the 2-hole could only manage a 4-hole at the 1/4, (from the 2-hole at YR after an A/W try,not good), and then he was a very weak 1st-over at the 1/4 (4o/3) and still weakly first-over (3o/2), while the rest of the field was pinned to the pylons by the winner...YV finished a tired and fading 7th by 10-1/2 lengths, and his last 1/4 was 30:2 while the winner's was 28:4....A dismal performance to be sure, as the horse was definitely going backwards big time, off of the A/W...A no excuse race for him....Well there is an excuse, he "bounced" from his strenouous effort in his last race...

So, the payoff here is that this horse was "DOB" (Dead on the Board) right from the get go, and thruout the wagering cycle, and an alert handicapper can quickly size up the reason why this may have been so...Now Yonkers doesn't have the handles as they once did, once upon a time, but there is still a lot of smart and informed money at that place, and because of the lower handles, it is much easier to spot a "DOB" than it used to be....So, for me, YV was a logical contender for a win in this bottom of the barrel conditioned class, and yet his 16/1 opening odds told the story, and I would have definitely backed off on that one, and just skip the race, as there was nothing to win with a 6/5 shot winner...sure he went off at 4.40/1, but that was just dumb (people who didn't have or get the clues) late-money coming from the ADWs, imo....

Sometimes, when you get a good price, it will be for other reasons, (post-position, many contenders, or people unwilling to believe what they see), but in this case, it was apparent to me that the horse surely did "bounce", and DOB-early, was the KOD (kiss of death) in this situation...

That was me, "dumb money", many, many times before I started respecting a DOB for the right reasons....

best,

[SchagFactorToWin]

Thanks for the great response, even with the insult ;)

This is actually the first DOB I've had since I got back into racing 13 months ago.

[LottaKash]

Thanks for the great response, even with the insult ;)

This is actually the first DOB I've had since I got back into racing 13 months ago.

Hey Schag, that implied insult, that wasn't intended for you, that is for "all" of us.....I don't know any good handicapper that hasn't had to grapple with that situation (DOB) a time or two...We must be vigilant to appraising those situations, always...Even now I still get tempted even tho I know better.... "Our Greed" keeps driving us, but, it is easier to just sit the race out in the long run....

Mark Cramer reminds us, that winning has more to do with eliminating "bad-bets" than it does with making "good plays"...Trying to bet a logicial contender that is decidedly "DOB" has it's dire consequences...I have learned that many times the hard way....Hey, the more you know !

best,

[Cubbymac26]

lotta cash,

that was a great rundown of that race and i am i young horse player that was brought up on the theory in racing if it looks to good to be true then it probably is...

at yr im huge on the dob factor as very very rarely u see a horse dob and win for example cessna flight was taking huge action and ran huge..

the worst feeling in the world is having a huge pick4 live into the final and ur horse comes up dob.....it sucks cuz u no your dead in the water :bang:

u can x horses early on when see dob but it gets tricky in picks

one last thing i noticed at yr is in the late double when they hammer a number down to 5 or 6 dollars when the first part goes down the next part seens to go down.. almost like the drivers have to do something to get that double money back :lol: :lol: :lol:

[SchagFactorToWin]

LottaKash- Sometimes it's easy to take postings too personally. That's why I try to stay away from the Off-Topics board!

I'll have to collect some data for DOBs. But I don't think I can let that change my bets. If I start questioning my pick's validity (as opposed to how much to bet) based on tote action, I think I would wind up a nervous wreck. Since it doesn't happen often, I'll stand behind my system and look for the higher occasional prices.

[LottaKash]

lotta cash,

that was a great rundown of that race and i am i young horse player that was brought up on the theory in racing if it looks to good to be true then it probably is...

at yr im huge on the dob factor as very very rarely u see a horse dob and win for example cessna flight was taking huge action and ran huge..

the worst feeling in the world is having a huge pick4 live into the final and ur horse comes up dob.....it sucks cuz u no your dead in the water :bang:

u can x horses early on when see dob but it gets tricky in picks

one last thing i noticed at yr is in the late double when they hammer a number down to 5 or 6 dollars when the first part goes down the next part seens to go down.. almost like the drivers have to do something to get that double money back :lol: :lol: :lol:

Yeah Cubby, it does "suck" when you are live in the horizontal exotics, only to find that your good-pick is "DOB" in the later races...I hate that, and that is one of the chief reasons that I don't get too involved in the horizontals at some tracks....I hate to lose !!!

best,