2 Weeks to go: Lets start it, Kentucky Derby Picks, who and why!

[Igeteven]

What do you like now or are you going to hold off to the last minute before you post your picks

[46zilzal]

How can one evaluate a field that has not even been finalized?......PURE speculation without a shred of logic at this point.

[Deepsix]

I suppose we could simply ask Igeteven for his picks/rationale at this premature point in time. Seems he didn't offer zip.

[breezing]

i'll take "any california horse" for the win, Alex.

[Deepsix]

Derby Graded Earnings List..... this would be a good starting point thou a tiny bit outdated;

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/kentucky-derby-136-graded-earnings

[sandpit]

Derby Graded Earnings List..... this would be a good starting point thou a tiny bit outdated;

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/kentucky-derby-136-graded-earnings

You would think that the official site for the Kentucky Derby would take the time to update the list that is almost 2 weeks old...I guess that's what you get when you care more about which celebrities are gonna show up or selling paraphenalia instead of the horses themselves...

[46zilzal]

Until the field is assembled there is no way to even guess the pace interactions.

When Spend A Buck won there was a suggestion another colt, Eternal Prince was the name???, might give him some trouble....
That did not happen, he was alone on the lead and the rest is history.....

[Igeteven]

Until the field is assembled there is no way to even guess the pace interactions.

When Spend A Buck won there was a suggestion another colt, Eternal Prince was the name???, might give him some trouble....
That did not happen, he was alone on the lead and the rest is history.....

Hell, have some fun and pick a horse for the heck of it.

:) :) :) :)

[Tom]

I have a couple I am looking at, but first things first.
Or should I say, thirst things thirst. I commence the mint juleps tonight.:p

[Igeteven]

I have a couple I am looking at, but first things first.
Or should I say, thirst things thirst. I commence the mint juleps tonight.:p

;)

[WinterTriangle]

What do you like now

See what Pace thinks. He created a Triple Crown forum area.

Not playing housekeeper (well, actually, I am:D ) , but I think we discusssed earlier to keep TC Forum topics under the forum for that. Most years there end up being 30 topics about the Derby, all over the place on most forums. I personally am not going to read 30 topics spammed all over a general racing board to see what people think or talk about the derby. My clicking finger is lazy I guess. LOL

I am not going to pick until jockey assignments, post positions, and final field.

I'm in the "thinking out loud" stage, and there are already some good topics like that down in the Triple Crown forum...would love to hear your thoughts

[Deepsix]

Back in the 70's I was traveling through Oklahoma City and at a local honky-tonk I met this pretty young gal. Well, we spend a few days together and I learned that she worked as a "Hostess" on a regional bus (not a Greyhound nor a Trailways but a smaller regional bus line), she was kinda like a Stew on an airplane except a few steps down the ladder. She described her job as assisting folks when she could and acting as the "social director" to keep folks entertained as the bus drove the highways/byways through Ok, Mo, Tx. I never knew they had such hostesses on busses, before.

I think that's what Igeteven does.... he's like a 'social director' trying to think up topics to keep us entertained/involved.

[lamboguy]

i am going to pick this kentucky derby against every single way that i have never handicapped any race. i am going to go with whichever horse rajiv marag is riding. he is riding as good as a rider can ride. he also has a great agent and a good friend richie dupass, who also is one of the better agents around. he came close to winning the derby a few years ago with a 90-1 shot for kiran mcglaughlin on closing arguement with corneilio valasquez aboard.

[nijinski]

i am going to pick this kentucky derby against every single way that i have never handicapped any race. i am going to go with whichever horse rajiv marag is riding. he is riding as good as a rider can ride. he also has a great agent and a good friend richie dupass, who also is one of the better agents around. he came close to winning the derby a few years ago with a 90-1 shot for kiran mcglaughlin on closing arguement with corneilio valasquez aboard.
Is he staying with Mission Impazible?

[PhantomOnTour]

If there's one thing I've learned, it is to wait and see how the horses working at CD handle the track and how they are moving. Not all will work at CD but the large majority will, and any definitive conclusions before seeing them work will be premature. Works and Gary Stevens excitement put me on Bluegrass Cat, a nice 2nd at ~30-1. There are obviously some that I favor, but I have no bets designed.

[lamboguy]

Is he staying with Mission Impazible?
i don't think he got anything else to ride! if you look at it the way i look at it, i don't think that any horse that ran in gulfsteam or or tampa has a chance this year. the tampa race the best horse couldn't handle the blinkers on the first time, he will probably be pretty tough in keeneland tomorrow, and even if he wins he probably won't have enough earnings to get in. then you look at the california horses who they say should improve this year coming off the synthetic, and their races were pretty good. but there are to many of them to pick from that can win this thing. the best horses to run in the rebel and arkansas derby went back to california. the winner of the sunland derby came from california. that leaves fair grounds. it looked like a pretty good race to me. so i see mission impazzable as the horse that has the most upside to him. naturaly you can't play him strickly off the last race numbers vs. lucky and esky and the rest of the california horses. you got to think that he improved in a big way.

[PaceAdvantage]

I suppose we could simply ask Igeteven for his picks/rationale at this premature point in time. Seems he didn't offer zip.Like clockwork you are.

[Deepsix]

Yeah, clockwise I am, in this regard. You see those horses/connections who have the cash to draw-in (my subsiquent post shows who's eligible) , now I'll await the early PPs, then the post position draw, and THEN I'll do some figure'n.

Meanwhile its just like you fighting over RA/Z and greatness.

[PaceAdvantage]

Meanwhile its just like you fighting over RA/Z and greatness.Nope, not like that at all. And if you still think so, then you didn't get what I was saying.

[098poi]

Link to DRF which has stats for past winners, contenders for this year etc.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/past-derby-winners.html

[Igeteven]

Like clockwork you are.

:( :( :(

[Sunday Silence]

If there's one thing I've learned, it is to wait and see how the horses working at CD handle the track and how they are moving. Not all will work at CD but the large majority will, and any definitive conclusions before seeing them work will be premature. Works and Gary Stevens excitement put me on Bluegrass Cat, a nice 2nd at ~30-1. There are obviously some that I favor, but I have no bets designed.

I always watched The Works, and somehow I missed BC, and my largest score ever. I made a big score early on the Derby Card, so took some chances I wouldn't normally. I felt really strongly about Barbaro, but even more strongly that Steppenwolfer and Jazil would be the closers in the super. I had $10 tri's Barbaro to the 5 freakin' California horses to Steppenwolfer and Jazil in the 3rd spots, and $5 supers Barbaro/5 california horses/Steppenwolfer/Jilzal. The California horses did nothing, BC gets second, and the payouts were MASSIVE, even with Brother Derek deadheating for 4th. I had a rule of not betting horses who backed up in their final Derby prep, only reason I left BC out. Would have been a life changing score. (like a half million)

Time: :223, :46,1:104, 1:37, 2:011 (:22.63,:46.07, 1:10.88, 1:37.02, 2:01.36). Track Fast. OFF at 6:15 EDT. Start good for all but BARBARO. Won driving.
Program # Win Place Show $2 Exacta (8-13) $2 Trifecta (8-13-2) $1 Superfecta (8-13-2-1)
8 Barbaro $14.20 $8.00 $6.00 $587.00 $11,418.40 $84,860.40
13 Bluegrass Cat $28.40 $15.40 $1 Superfecta (8-13-2-18)
2 Steppenwolfer $7.80 $59,839.00

[PhantomOnTour]

Don't feel so bad. Invisible Ink nosed, and I mean NOSED, me out of a big Derby score. It's a hairball race.

But back to 'The Works' on TVG. This is the only show on that network that I really like. I generally don't like horsemen's opinions on races, but boy can they assess the way these colts move. Listening to Amoss and Gary Stevens evaluate Derby works is a school lesson for me.

[SmartyLane]

Don't feel so bad. Invisible Ink nosed, and I mean NOSED, me out of a big Derby score. It's a hairball race.

But back to 'The Works' on TVG. This is the only show on that network that I really like. I generally don't like horsemen's opinions on races, but boy can they assess the way these colts move. Listening to Amoss and Gary Stevens evaluate Derby works is a school lesson for me.


Speaking of Gary Stevens- on HRTV the other day I heard him talking about LAL at Churchill and apparently Stevens was not impressed at all. Said he was breathing hard and didn't seem to be moving well over the dirt. Who knows, I am not claiming anything here just telling what I heard him say.

[overthehill]

There are a million ways to lose money betting and one way to win it. Ive even lost money by dropping the winning ticket somehow. not to worry someone found it and cashed it. my favorite story thought was about some guy who was a live in a pick six going into the last race at some latin track and there was a riot when some long shot won, which he had and they never paid out on the pick six. my friend had the winner that was taken down in the phantom dq at saratoga years back. we watched the replay of the dq together trying to figure out how they took down the winner. I had arcangues 99-1 winner of the breeders cup with 5 or six horses in box triples and failed to collect.

[Sunday Silence]

Speaking of Gary Stevens- on HRTV the other day I heard him talking about LAL at Churchill and apparently Stevens was not impressed at all. Said he was breathing hard and didn't seem to be moving well over the dirt. Who knows, I am not claiming anything here just telling what I heard him say.
Might be something to that - not a fast work for a Baffert horse at all. On the other hand, sounds like Sidney's Candy just loved the surface. LAL's been my horse but I'm not liking the vibe. Trouble, blinkers off, iffy first work at CD. He'll need a phenomenal next work to get my back on his bandwagon. The Works show is just great. I remember they said Rachel was outworking everyone, including the boys, last year. Picked up some good longshots by listening to them..

[SmartyLane]

I also just heard him on HRTV a few minutes ago on Pursuit of the Crown, and one of my favorite horses this year Paddy o'Prado, is who Stevens thinks looked the best over the track. I just love Paddy, and I am so happy to hear this!!!! I will definitely be keeping a close eye on what is said about him up to the derby.