speed duels

[46zilzal]

I constantly hear the theoretical about two pacestters going at one another that BOTH are going to run themselves ragged ,,,,,,,That is not reality and more than often ONE comes out the victor and runs away...

Each race with two earlier horses has to be evaluated independently.

[bisket]

we're not going to get another discussion going about class are we? why? because classy speed always leaves cheap speed in its wake? now if cheap speed suddenly jumps up and looks like classy speed after 2 years of being a cheapy. how would you try to reconcile this. track bias? magic shoes? something a little extra in the oats every day?

[46zilzal]

we're not going to get another discussion going about class are we? why? because classy speed always leaves cheap speed in its wake? now if cheap speed suddenly jumps up and looks like classy speed after 2 years of being a cheapy. how would you try to reconcile this. track bias? magic shoes? something a little extra in the oats every day?
Strange that word does not appear once in my post...Sure you are responding to the correct one?

[HUSKER55]

WOULDN'T the difference be noticed in the final time or pace time? The one that can carry the speed farther will have the better numbers, won't they?

JMHO

[46zilzal]

WOULDN'T the difference be noticed in the final time or pace time? The one that can carry the speed farther will have the better numbers, won't they?

JMHO
No often the difference does not show until 3 or 4 furlongs into a race...and unless you consider pace of the race the line came from. POSITION alone will not elucidate which one will triumph from there on.

[Tom]

I always look at the margins of the two I expect to be on the lead. A horse that can overcome margins of a hd or nk area better bets, generally, than one who needs to be clear by 1,2 lengths or he folds. This has been working for me since the 70's. To be going at it, they have to be next to each other.

[fmolf]

one of the two speed horses will usually have run consistently faster and further than the other and usually gets my money if the odds are not too low.

[bisket]

a horse that needs to be clear is the cheapy imop. class overcomes tough situations during a race. a cheapy looks great when things go his way, but when it doesn't they fold.

[Valuist]

I constantly hear the theoretical about two pacestters going at one another that BOTH are going to run themselves ragged ,,,,,,,That is not reality and more than often ONE comes out the victor and runs away...

Each race with two earlier horses has to be evaluated independently.

I agree 100%. When there's 3 definitive early speed types, then you may see a duel, but it seems like with 2, one of them either rates, or breaks a step or two slow, allowing the other to clear.

[markgoldie]

I constantly hear the theoretical about two pacestters going at one another that BOTH are going to run themselves ragged ,,,,,,,That is not reality and more than often ONE comes out the victor and runs away...

Each race with two earlier horses has to be evaluated independently.
How many times do we go over the exact same territory here? Not picking on you in particular, but I see this all the time. The discussions seem to recycle themselves with an alarming regularity.

The answer to the question is that horses run better when they can relax and it's very difficult for a competitive animal to relax when another horse is running right next to him. This is the definition of "duelling," or as you put it, "two pacesetters going at one another."

Some on the forum have taken the position that it has no impact whatsoever; that the animal who is superior will put away the inferior one without any harmful effect to his performance whatsoever. On the other hand, we might take a poll of the most accomplished and experienced jockies in racing and ask them the following: You are on a speed-type animal who likes to race near or preferably, on the front. In the early go, another horse duels with you, head and head for the lead. Which of the following best describes your opinion of the effects of this scenario versus running without such duelling competition: (a) Helps my horse's chances to eventually win the race; (b) Has absolutely no effect on where my horse will finish in the race; or (c) Will hurt my horse's chances to finish well in the event.

Were such an unbiased, fair, and above-board poll to be taken, I would bet $50,000 right this minute at even odds that answer "C" will out-poll both of the other two answers.

PS. I mean both of the other two answers COMBINED>

[Greyfox]

Were such an unbiased, fair, and above-board poll to be taken, I would bet $50,000 right this minute at even odds that answer "C" will out-poll both of the other two answers.

>

I'll take that bet....but we have to use the jockeys I've lined up. :lol:

[Robert Goren]

The predicting of speed duels is a very hard thing to do. They often don't materialize or happen when they are not suppose to. JMO

[markgoldie]

I'll take that bet....but we have to use the jockeys I've lined up. :lol:
Reminds me of the old joke which goes something like this: Research scientists in a major conference have decided to replace all their laboratory rats with jockies... Seems there are some things that rat simply WON'T do.

[bisket]

How many times do we go over the exact same territory here? Not picking on you in particular, but I see this all the time. The discussions seem to recycle themselves with an alarming regularity.

The answer to the question is that horses run better when they can relax and it's very difficult for a competitive animal to relax when another horse is running right next to him. This is the definition of "duelling," or as you put it, "two pacesetters going at one another."

Some on the forum have taken the position that it has no impact whatsoever; that the animal who is superior will put away the inferior one without any harmful effect to his performance whatsoever. On the other hand, we might take a poll of the most accomplished and experienced jockies in racing and ask them the following: You are on a speed-type animal who likes to race near or preferably, on the front. In the early go, another horse duels with you, head and head for the lead. Which of the following best describes your opinion of the effects of this scenario versus running without such duelling competition: (a) Helps my horse's chances to eventually win the race; (b) Has absolutely no effect on where my horse will finish in the race; or (c) Will hurt my horse's chances to finish well in the event.

Were such an unbiased, fair, and above-board poll to be taken, I would bet $50,000 right this minute at even odds that answer "C" will out-poll both of the other two answers.

PS. I mean both of the other two answers COMBINED>
well of course the winner of the dual will be weakened, but i thought this example basically meant that the two pacesetters were the only two to battle for the lead the entire race.

[46zilzal]

There is no situation that repeats all the time only the perception that it does.

[Tom]

Then why did you start this thread?

[Greyfox]

Then why did you start this thread?

So he could play the Zen card that "change is an eternal constant."

[upset]

Reminds me of the old joke which goes something like this: Research scientists in a major conference have decided to replace all their laboratory rats with jockies... Seems there are some things that rat simply WON'T do.
thats why we've never had a four foot president

[Passthehat]

I constantly hear the theoretical about two pacestters going at one another that BOTH are going to run themselves ragged ,,,,,,,That is not reality and more than often ONE comes out the victor and runs away...

Each race with two earlier horses has to be evaluated independently.

True, as long as they are evenly classed. So often the outclassed horse gives way, or if lasting to the wire, it loses.

When I am faced with no speed in a race but for two horses -- I go to their backclass. Of course, if one of the speeds is outclassed, even slightly, it's time for me to look for a closer or off the pace horse. If I find one that is a constant loser, but classes in or outclasses the #2 speed in the race, well, he is the one I put on my exacta.

[Passthehat]

The predicting of speed duels is a very hard thing to do. They often don't materialize or happen when they are not suppose to. JMO

hmm thats funny. I find speed duels relatively easy to predict. Every race I cap, I check out the running line at the second call, and the overwhelming majority of the time, the 2-3-4 horses I have pegged for speed, will be fighting for the lead.

Am I doing something right or do you need some work on identifying speed horses and accompanying duels?

[Passthehat]

I particularly enjoy the races where the higher classed off the pace horse will find himself fighting in a speed duel due to his comrades are just going to damn slow.

I, for one, watch for that, and will throw the overclassed P or S horse in the speed mix.

[BlueShoe]

This is not a rule but rather a guideline in sizing up situations in which an early pace duel is likely that has proven to be helpful. When two runners engage in an early duel, one of them very often will win the race. However, when three or more engage early, then meltdown is more likely, and off the pace runners chances to get all the money improve.

[bobphilo]

I always look at the margins of the two I expect to be on the lead. A horse that can overcome margins of a hd or nk area better bets, generally, than one who needs to be clear by 1,2 lengths or he folds. This has been working for me since the 70's. To be going at it, they have to be next to each other.

Why does the fact that 2 horses that happen to be running next to each other dictate that they are "going at it", even when the pace is slow? Do all horses become uncontrollable when next to another horse? Maybe so, maybe not. Why make this assumption when you can just look at the fractions and pace figures to see how hard they are really going at it?

Bob