markgoldie
04-16-2010, 11:16 AM
While I like longshots as much as the next guy, sometimes, like today, the horses that figure happen to carry lowish odds. At any rate, we try to take what's given.
Race 1: #3 Gia. This mare is in absolute career form. He last was a real eye-opener with two powerful moves, the second of which saw her first over raw into a :57.2 last half. Should handle the class bump with ease.
Race 2: This event is all inside numbers. #1 Lessons Learned, a Burke trainee, was a good second to Zach E Fresh in last. The latter horse moved up to 8 claimers yesterday and raced a big second in a swift mile. #2 Mysterious Luck is fresh off the claim for Mike Palone. This in and of itself is not a great recommendation because Mike's horses have raced poorly since his return from suspension. However, she is in good form and brother Dave has the lines. #3 Dr. Lon is by far the classiest of the bunch. Two back he was boxed and raging against better and in his last may have been choked off when the brakes were applied in front of him. Drops and must be considered a huge factor. Let's box the 1,2,3 in the exacta and trifecta.
Race 4: #5 Wen Mars Chip. Made an uncharacteristic break in last and still beat the same class. #4 Neptune T did not race last week but is the main nemesis of Wen Mars Chip, having traded victories in the past. Let's box the two in the exacta. 4,5 exacta box.
Race 10: #6 Linebriated scored right off the claim and remains in the same class. Also, even though the overall track variant that day was listed as -6 by Trackmaster, there was a powerful change in the actual speed of the track during the course of the card as the track slowed noticeably. For example, the next class up, the $20,000 claimer for trotters went in 1:59.2 with no fast internal fractions just two races later. Hence, Linebriated's 1:58.3 clocking was actually more like a 1:57 mile on a faster oval. #7 Columbia County was a tremendous fair performer last year as he won 14 heats from 28 starts. He was a bit slow to round to form this year but has come on strongly now. Two back he made an eye-popping first over move against straight condition horses and was second on the outside through a very swift 1:26 three-quarter clocking before losing stride. His strong second to Linebriated in last confirms his good form, though there is no reason to believe he can reverse the decision over that horse today. Let's play #6 Linebriated straight and one cold exacta punch 6-7.
Race 11: #7 Keystone Swinger remains in fine form and is able to drop in class because he was claimed for cheaper two back. Palone picks up the drive and excels on these types of horses. He will use his reputation and the respect he gets from other drivers to move this horse directly to the front and is very unlikely to be beaten by anything in here. #7 to win.
Race 13: Is a classic matchup of a horse in great current form against the classier animal making his first start back as a sophmore. #2 She's An American is the mare in career form (and adding lasix) and #4 Sand Savage is the returning colt. History would indicate that the colt prevails, but since nothing in the field appears capable of separating them, let's box the two in the exacta. 2,4 exacta box.
That's it. GLA
Race 1: #3 Gia. This mare is in absolute career form. He last was a real eye-opener with two powerful moves, the second of which saw her first over raw into a :57.2 last half. Should handle the class bump with ease.
Race 2: This event is all inside numbers. #1 Lessons Learned, a Burke trainee, was a good second to Zach E Fresh in last. The latter horse moved up to 8 claimers yesterday and raced a big second in a swift mile. #2 Mysterious Luck is fresh off the claim for Mike Palone. This in and of itself is not a great recommendation because Mike's horses have raced poorly since his return from suspension. However, she is in good form and brother Dave has the lines. #3 Dr. Lon is by far the classiest of the bunch. Two back he was boxed and raging against better and in his last may have been choked off when the brakes were applied in front of him. Drops and must be considered a huge factor. Let's box the 1,2,3 in the exacta and trifecta.
Race 4: #5 Wen Mars Chip. Made an uncharacteristic break in last and still beat the same class. #4 Neptune T did not race last week but is the main nemesis of Wen Mars Chip, having traded victories in the past. Let's box the two in the exacta. 4,5 exacta box.
Race 10: #6 Linebriated scored right off the claim and remains in the same class. Also, even though the overall track variant that day was listed as -6 by Trackmaster, there was a powerful change in the actual speed of the track during the course of the card as the track slowed noticeably. For example, the next class up, the $20,000 claimer for trotters went in 1:59.2 with no fast internal fractions just two races later. Hence, Linebriated's 1:58.3 clocking was actually more like a 1:57 mile on a faster oval. #7 Columbia County was a tremendous fair performer last year as he won 14 heats from 28 starts. He was a bit slow to round to form this year but has come on strongly now. Two back he made an eye-popping first over move against straight condition horses and was second on the outside through a very swift 1:26 three-quarter clocking before losing stride. His strong second to Linebriated in last confirms his good form, though there is no reason to believe he can reverse the decision over that horse today. Let's play #6 Linebriated straight and one cold exacta punch 6-7.
Race 11: #7 Keystone Swinger remains in fine form and is able to drop in class because he was claimed for cheaper two back. Palone picks up the drive and excels on these types of horses. He will use his reputation and the respect he gets from other drivers to move this horse directly to the front and is very unlikely to be beaten by anything in here. #7 to win.
Race 13: Is a classic matchup of a horse in great current form against the classier animal making his first start back as a sophmore. #2 She's An American is the mare in career form (and adding lasix) and #4 Sand Savage is the returning colt. History would indicate that the colt prevails, but since nothing in the field appears capable of separating them, let's box the two in the exacta. 2,4 exacta box.
That's it. GLA