View Full Version : Software Contest Part II

07-18-2003, 07:36 PM
I thought I would start a new thread about the software contest because that other thread is turning into a frenzy about everything BUT the software contest.

I was thinking about the contest and the fact that there are people out there who are FORCED to handicap EVERY race whether they like it or not. Yes, they are the Morning Line Makers, a thankless job at that. Let's take a look at their numbers:

6488/20770 (31.2%) winners
$33,775.90 revenue = $5.21 avg payoff per winners
ROI = - $7,764.10 (-18.7%)

The betting public also selects winners. Here are the numbers for the betting favorite:

7873/22540 (34.9%) winners
$37752.00 revenue = $4.80 ave payoff per winner.
ROI = - $7,328.00 (-16.3%)

Wow! The betting public has a better winning percentage AND ROI percentage.

These numbers represent all thoroughbred races from all tracks DRF offers since February 2003.

Can your software produce better numbers then this? Mine can.

07-19-2003, 12:08 AM
Your post suggests an interesting concept and contest possibility.

Your figures are year to date (excluding January). Betting public favorites lost $.163 on every $1.00, which is about the national takeout average in the wake of fairly recent takeout reductions at major tracks (AQU, BEL, GP).

Isn't this the minimum baseline performance that users should expect from handicapping software. If a product doesn't equal or exceed the performance of the public favorite, adding user expertise will be an uphill battle. For the money, users should get at least what is freely available to anyone who looks at a toteboard.

So why wouldn't the exact type of statistics that you presented be the best yardstick for measuring baseline software performance?

If you entered your software, which beats the performance of public favorites, a user would see that something of value was offered without having to rely on marketing hype.

07-19-2003, 02:20 AM

Do you have software you're planning on entering in the contest?

07-19-2003, 03:38 AM
Nope, so I will bow out of this thread.

07-19-2003, 04:16 AM
good ? PA