collecting data question

[masterpeg]

Having plenty of pp's to sift through I have come across this question:

I want to find out what percentage of maidens win next out. How should I go about it?

If I scour each horses past races for maiden wins and log the outcome of their next race I would then have the percentage of maidens that won next out (there is a risk of duplication though).

however, if I just looked at the outcome of each non maiden race that I have I would have the percentage of races won by maiden winners (with 100 percent accuracy) .

My question is; is either way the better way?

[Jeff P]

Winner of a MClm or Splwt race, ran back in a non MClm or Splwt race...

Here's what I have for calendar year 2009:
Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE YEAR = 2009
AND POSFINCALL = 1
AND INSTR('M-S', CLASSDESCRLAST) > 0
AND INSTR('M-S', CLASSDESCRIPTOR) = 0


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 22231.50 22321.90 23110.80
Bet -31004.00 -31004.00 -31004.00
Gain -8772.50 -8682.10 -7893.20

Wins 1984 3916 5729
Plays 15502 15502 15502
PCT .1280 .2526 .3696

ROI 0.7171 0.7200 0.7454
Avg Mut 11.21 5.70 4.03
Broken out by the odds:
By: Odds Range

>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.00 0.50 -26.80 206.00 0.8699 68 103 .6602 5.1584
0.50 1.00 -164.90 744.00 0.7784 169 372 .4543 3.5497
1.00 1.50 -189.40 1058.00 0.8210 198 529 .3743 2.9245
1.50 2.00 -40.80 1318.00 0.9690 238 659 .3612 2.8219
2.00 2.50 -203.20 1442.00 0.8591 193 721 .2677 2.0915
2.50 3.00 -370.80 1378.00 0.7309 137 689 .1988 1.5536
3.00 3.50 -107.80 1370.00 0.9213 151 685 .2204 1.7224
3.50 4.00 -186.60 1308.00 0.8573 119 654 .1820 1.4217
4.00 4.50 -300.60 1196.00 0.7487 86 598 .1438 1.1237
4.50 5.00 -251.80 1066.00 0.7638 72 533 .1351 1.0555
5.00 5.50 -222.50 994.00 0.7762 63 497 .1268 0.9904
5.50 6.00 -84.60 944.00 0.9104 64 472 .1356 1.0595
6.00 6.50 -235.80 870.00 0.7290 44 435 .1011 0.7903
6.50 7.00 -182.40 802.00 0.7726 41 401 .1022 0.7989
7.00 7.50 -177.60 702.00 0.7470 32 351 .0912 0.7123
7.50 8.00 -232.20 694.00 0.6654 27 347 .0778 0.6080
8.00 8.50 -185.40 644.00 0.7121 25 322 .0776 0.6066
8.50 9.00 -316.00 664.00 0.5241 18 332 .0542 0.4236
9.00 999999.00 -5293.30 13604.00 0.6109 239 6802 .0351 0.2745

Win rate for the entire sample isn't substantially different than the win rate for all starters everywhere. Roi for the entire sample is a little lower than roi for all starters everywhere. Interesting that Roi for those that are bet down a little indicates an area where some further R&D might be in order.



-jp

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