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mhrussell
08-20-2001, 09:12 PM
All-

I've recently noticed that the BRIS and ITS (Handicappers Daily) pace figures (second call and late pace; E2 and LP BRIS numbers) often vary by a huge amount for the same horse in the same race; particularly the late pace figure. I expected differences but thought the trend would be the same and consistent.. but they are not! Obviously, the rating systems used by the two companies are different. Any insights as to the causes of the differences? Which one is better and why?

I am using pace figures in my home grown "handicapping magic" method software so I am very interested in what may be going on here. I know Bob Harris out there has been using the ITS data for some time; any thoughts from you on their pace figures would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance for any comments..

Regards,

andicap
08-20-2001, 09:27 PM
My problem with ITS is the lack of an E1, a first call. The race can be won or lost in the 1st fraction -- and there's no turn time!
I do very well with BRIS pace figures using my own formulas.

Tom
08-20-2001, 09:34 PM
BRIS numbers are linear-based strictly on the times of the fractions. I do believe ITS numbers are something more than that-the early and late pace numbers do not add up to the third pace muber-total pace, but a different total pace than originally used. ITS calculates thier own speed figures since DRF pulled the plug on them, so they may using some more esoteric formulae
for the pace figs. I know Mike Pizzolla was invovled in Sartin's Energy program, so there may be a link. I just remember something along those lines from Mike, but several years ago at a seminar.
Question-when you see the big swing in numbers, whose are usually correct? Or is it a wash?
Tom

Longshot
08-20-2001, 11:33 PM
I did a study of ITS pace figures a few years back.Their
total pace figure is based on the percent of the race that makes up the E2 + the percent that makes up the LP.
It is easy to see in 6f races ( 4f + 2F) or 2(E2) + (LP).
Example E2 of 85 and LP of 80. 2(85) + 80 = 250.
For 6.5f 1.845(E2) + 1.155(LP)
For 7f 1.71(E2) + 1.29(LP)

Hope this helps.

Longshot

mhrussell
08-21-2001, 01:30 AM
Tom-
It seems to be pretty random but I would not say at this point a total "wash". I did a 35 race sample study prior to the Handicapping Magician Seminar last April and found the BRIS pace ratings did very well in discriminating between contenders; much better than the standard Magician technique.
It's been only very recently that I've been getting Handicappers Daily files to see their pace figs. compared to the BRIS figs that I currently use so this facet is new territory for me. Some of yesterday's Del Mar races had some turf horses that showed big differences in E2 and late pace between ITS and BRIS (10th race; Dahlberg's race line for 4/22/01 had LP=98 BRIS and 87 for ITS) and were not consistent (eg. ITS had E2 larger than LP and BRIS was vice versa).

andicap- I echo your complaint that ITS does not have an E1 call. I too think the first fraction very important and I have to have that fig. for my calcs/handicapping too. (I also have been doing well with the BRIS figures and plan to stay with them.)

Longshot- Thanks for the insight into the weighting of the E2 and late pace ratings for ITS. I was wondering how they computed the total pace number. But I am more interested in how ITS calculates the E2 and late pace figs themselves.