Bounce?????

[Hanover1]

Humor me here guys....I am fully aware of the term "bounce", and have heard it a million times. I am sure this thread has been bandied about numerous times, but for my 2 cents, I just never got it.... "Bounce" seems like a generic term for a selection that a handicapper cannot quite get a handle on. They use poor arguments such as "won last 2 on the improve" to toss the bounce theory out, or "coming off best lifetime performance" to justify a "bounce". Help me on this......horses run in cycles, it is true, however some run in cycles that can last all year, so "bounce"?

[Show Me the Wire]

Actually bounce is a very technical term related to sheet speed figure patterns based on statistical probabilty. The term is actually misused often.

[46zilzal]

I used to not believe in it, BUT have seen it often...MORE often with the distaff set, particularly after an "all out" move.

When Affirmed started his four year old season, Barrera scolded himself with pushing him too much too quickly and it showed. In retrospect he often mentioned how body sore he was as the result and would have changed things if he had to do it over again.

Geldings rarely bounce as they are gritty as hell.

[thaskalos]

Horseplayers have noticed a curious phenomenon that seems to occur with a great deal of regularity and which has been substanciated by analytical research. When a horse runs an unusually quick race, it often follows it up with a race worse than any race in its recent history. You can't attribute it to declining form, because the horse often reverts to its previous sharp form in the very next start. The "decline" often lasts for only one race.

To make sense of this occurrence, the horseplayer theorizes that the unusually sharp effort has temporarily exhausted the horse, which explains the uncharacteristically bad race that follows. In theory, the horse's "bad" race replenishes the horse's energy reserves, and the horse is quickly back to its previous sharp form, sometimes in the very next start.

[Hanover1]

Horseplayers have noticed a curious phenomenon that seems to occur with a great deal of regularity and which has been substanciated by analytical research. When a horse runs an unusually quick race, it often follows it up with a race worse than any race in its recent history. You can't attribute it to declining form, because the horse often reverts to its previous sharp form in the very next start. The "decline" often lasts for only one race.

To make sense of this occurrence, the horseplayer theorizes that the unusually sharp effort has temporarily exhausted the horse, which explains the uncharacteristically bad race that follows. In theory, the horse's "bad" race replenishes the horse's energy reserves, and the horse is quickly back to its previous sharp form, sometimes in the very next start.
I understand this concept, but remain puzzled by the fact that I have witnessed many a horse make the bounce theory seem silly.

[thaskalos]

I understand this concept, but remain puzzled by the fact that I have witnessed many a horse make the bounce theory seem silly.Well...that's true...but then again, nothing is for sure in this game...

[LottaKash]

I can only respond to the nature of a bounce, from a harness racing side of things....The bounce is a reality....It is also called "sore"....I believe there are many degrees to the bounce....The most severe ones are the "real-bounces" that most refer to...

In human terms, ever had a bounce when overdoing a run, workout or even an lowly overbrisk walk or perhaps from a work project, that required an effort that was unusual ?...I would have said, you could be sore from your physical labors, or I could say that you "bounced"...

In harness-racing (where I reside), 99% of all races are run at a distance of 1-mile, and the races are so symetrical, so, after years of handicapping and making the 4-quarters for each race, I have found that there is a threshold for each horse, depending on his class of competition, age, and fitness level, and
the speed of each 1/4 can be quantified by using whole numbers....These numbers, can often detect an impending "bounce", be it a minor or a major one....Even the very best horses in training can experience a bounce, I see it all the time....The trick of it is, is to know what the "bouncing threshold is for each class and each horse....Usually it is a 1/4, that is unusually freaky for the class/horse, especially when too "freaky" 1/4's occur back to back, or back to back to back....With the trotting horse (who is more susceptible to breaking stride than the pacing-horse, because of the gait)..Certain numbered 1/4's will generally point to a break in the very next start or a trotter, and pacers sometimes....And, I keep getting better at prediciting this as time goes on...

There are "mini-bounces", that usually result in a horse getting a week or two off (after racing weekly on a regular basis, which harness horses are trained to race) or they will often be given an EZ-Race ( a no try shot, a suckalong race with a 1/8mile brush at the end) or the trainer will move the horse to a lesser track for an E-Zier race with some softer fractions to contend with, to ease the soreness somewhat (racing out of it), or they could be out of commission for some time...Depends on the severity of the bounce....My numbers tell me much in that regard...Knowing this has taken my handicapping to a higher level as a result...

I suppose that both being equines, the same holds true for the T-bred side of things as well...

best,

[GARY Z]

let's make it simple:

I'm your trainer, and in three months I have you conditioned you
to run at various distances and times, with goal of getting you to run a mile
at a time of seven minutes.

Your average time is 8 minutes, but you are really feeling good today
and today you run the mile in 6 minutes and 50 seconds.


Along comes Mr. Wiseguy who makes you a bet: Equal or run faster
than 6 minutes and 50 seconds right now, and you'll get $ 5,000 ,
and run slower you'll pay Mr W 500.00.

Temperature is 90 degrees, you are muscle sore, winded and the
chances of you equalling this time that quickly is virtually
impossible as you have never run that quickly before.

That said ,you are a brave person, take the bet,and run the mile in
8 minutes. That is a bounce #/time.

However, you may now be stronger and actually may run faster
t'm'w or next week which is what sheet players look for when
comparing patterns of horses.

PS: This rule does not apply to two year old who can sometimes
run "explosive" numbers..

.

[Robert Goren]

The bounce theory is used by a trainer to explain to an owner on why his horse didn't run a lick when the trainer had guaranteed a win.;)

[Dave Schwartz]

Actually bounce is a very technical term related to sheet speed figure patterns based on statistical probabilty. The term is actually misused often.

SMTW,

Could you please offer a definition?


Dave

[Hanover1]

The bounce theory is used by a trainer to explain to an owner on why his horse didn't run a lick when the trainer had guaranteed a win.;)
I knew it was just a handy excuse.....

[lamboguy]

i remember sitting with len freedman, partner in the ragazin sheet, i had a horse running in chicago that won coming off a layoff and back the second time. he told me that the horse was a strong bounce candidate. after he won the race by 5 lengths i saw the horse bouncing up and down while getting his picture taken in the winners circle. to this day i wonder if he meant it that way!

[JeremyJet]

[QUOTE=46zilzal]When Affirmed started his four year old season, Barrera scolded himself with pushing him too much too quickly and it showed. In retrospect he often mentioned how body sore he was as the result and would have changed things if he had to do it over again.QUOTE]

What does AFFIRMED have to do with the bounce theory? You can't call it a bounce if you're coming off a layoff.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[JeremyJet]

i remember sitting with len freedman, partner in the ragazin sheet, i had a horse running in chicago that won coming off a layoff and back the second time. he told me that the horse was a strong bounce candidate. after he won the race by 5 lengths i saw the horse bouncing up and down while getting his picture taken in the winners circle. to this day i wonder if he meant it that way!

How did your horse run 3rd time out?

Regards,

JeremyJet

[Dan Montilion]

The bounce theory is used by a trainer to explain to an owner on why his horse didn't run a lick when the trainer had guaranteed a win.;) Followed by "the track was too cuppy".

[Deepsix]

Here is a link to Thoro-graph and an illustration of "Bounce". Make of it what you will. Note the items to consider listed on the right of the number sequence.

http://www.thorograph.com/flash/bounce.html

[Deepsix]

.... additionally, IF you go to thesheets.com you'll find a tutorial on "the bounce".....

[Lasix67]

I am a believer in the Bounce after a abnormally high effort last time out. My wife is a coach and I even see it with her students after having a huge effort above the norm there typically is a bounce off the effort. It doesn't happen 100% of the time but it is quite normal in all sports even when it includes an animal like horse racing.

[lamboguy]

How did your horse run 3rd time out?

Regards,

JeremyJet
the horse was claimed from me after the 2nd race, the new guy stepped the horse way up to a 1x allowance and got dusted by good horses.

[LottaKash]

[QUOTE=46zilzal]
In retrospect he often mentioned how body sore he was as the result and would have changed things if he had to do it over again.QUOTE]

What does AFFIRMED have to do with the bounce theory? You can't call it a bounce if you're coming off a layoff.

Regards,

JeremyJet

Imo, a bounce = soreness, it is just a label that I use to describe the soreness.....

And a horse sure could "bounce" coming from a layoff (especially the older ones)....Why was the horse layed off ?...If it was from soreness, lameness, or a bounce or whatever you would like to call it, and if a horse wasn't 100%, and was pushed too hard in his comeback race, sure he could come up sore, lame or had bounced...I see it all the time...The horse wasn't ready enough, or he is "The Chronic-Bouncer"...

The sheets players (as well as myself, but not a sheets user), I think, have just found a way of quantifying and explaining the the soreness..er, bounce....It is often predictable...And, they just label it as a "bounce"...

I don't quite understand why people take such exception to using the word Bounce... There are some who will just get right in your face, and declare that there is no such thing as a bounce, and would fight with you as if they are protecting their inheritance or something....

Say a horse is so "sore" that, he is unable to compete for a lengthy period of time, what would you call it ?....So, So Sore ? or a Bounce ? Lame ? Otherwise just semantics, I think....When the soreness alters the training and racing pattern of a horse, it bounced away from his form-cycle....:cool:

best,