did sidney's candy get an assist from track bias

[bisket]

santa anita has had a pronounced inside bias for a few months now. any horse with some stamina and early speed has had a pronounced edge going a route of ground at santa anita. did it seem odd to you that smith came up the rail in the santa margerita with zenyatta as apposed to circling the field like he usually does. this is why gomez was trying to move through on the rail with lucky in the santa anita derby. it was the place to be if you planned on winning. all this brings us to sidney's candy the flavor of the month in the derby spotlight. i give him good grades for winning the sa derby, but look at him warily when it comes to the kentucky derby. did sidney show us that he's a legitimate threat to win the derby? or is he the product of track bias?

[GaryG]

He will not win the derby on the front end, no way no how. To be a contender he will need to rate in the second flight. Maybe he can. I have been looking closer at Esky's races and he looks to me like he will be able to rate 6-8 lengths off the pace. Lots of questions to be sure.

[bisket]

he was allowed a comfortable lead, and was running on the best ground. he's a nice horse and will win again in graded company, i'm crossing him out when it comes to the derby though.

[kid4rilla]

Agreed, no shot.

[Stevie Belmont]

Sidney's Candy is a very talented horse that has a high cruising speed. He has another gear when asked for more.

A very relaxed running style. I am convinced he can rate if he needs to. I think he is the speed of the speed anyway.

I can't wait till he runs on the dirt seeing how all of these other horses have improved, and he is better than all of them.

Can he win the Derby—Absolutley

[Greyfox]

Lone speed coupled with good stamina can be dangerous in any race.
I'll wait and see how the race shapes up before tossing.

[bisket]

Sidney's Candy is a very talented horse that has a high cruising speed. He has another gear when asked for more.

A very relaxed running style. I am convinced he can rate if he needs to. I think he is the speed of the speed anyway.

I can't wait till he runs on the dirt seeing how all of these other horses have improved, and he is better than all of them.

Can he win the Derby—Absolutley
he does seem to be the class of the front runners. i'd like him more in the belmont or the preakness. he did have a nice closing time in the sa derby, but he also got the dream trip. there's quality in this horse though.

[Stevie Belmont]

The biggest key will be his ability to relax. Even if he does not make the front, or go for the front, he can relax off the pace. He was able to do that in his first two career races.

I am hoping for a clean break and that he settles. Post Position will be key here as well. I would like to see him break anywhere from post 12 and out.

22/1 in pool 3 still looks good to me right now.

[Market Mover]

The biggest key will be his ability to relax. Even if he does not make the front, or go for the front, he can relax off the pace. He was able to do that in his first two career races.

I am hoping for a clean break and that he settles. Post Position will be key here as well. I would like to see him break anywhere from post 12 and out.

22/1 in pool 3 still looks good to me right now.


Sidney's Candy Fair Exchange by Storm Cat is the only offspring of multiple G1 winner Exchange, who died after producing her foal.

Jenny Craig named the horse after her late husband. I remember last year they came with Chocolate Candy, another Candy Ride who actually had Slew blood on the damside. His granddam was the product of bringing Alydar to Affirmed's mother (that's so messed up!)...

Has a Storm Cat damside influenced breeding ever been successful in the Derby?

[PhantomOnTour]

If the inside has been good for so long then isn't Setsuko, who rallied widest of all, a serious one to watch if he gets in the Derby?
That race and the Sun Derby are the only 2 preps I don't have good figs on.

[bisket]

If the inside has been good for so long then isn't Setsuko, who rallied widest of all, a serious one to watch if he gets in the Derby?
That race and the Sun Derby are the only 2 preps I don't have good figs on.
YES!!!!!! i hope he gets in!!!!!

[boogazie]

Not that I doubt you but do you have numbers proving that there is a track bias for the inside runners at a route distance at Santa Anita?

I remember reading somewhere than speed horses win less often on the synthetic track there.

[Cadillakin]

Not that I doubt you but do you have numbers proving that there is a track bias for the inside runners at a route distance at Santa Anita?

I remember reading somewhere than speed horses win less often on the synthetic track there.
I don't think he is correct. I examined the data about a month ago. Speed horses routing had a poor win percentage. I use Turfday SuperStats for that kind of thing.. and I can't get the data right now...

But the link below is to Brisnet data. It too confirms the wire-to-wire percentage is lower for "routes on synthetic", than any other category.. slightly over 21%

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=104

And that ain't no favorable bias..

[bisket]

i am confident my analysis is correct.

[Bobby Seller]

santa anita has had a pronounced inside bias for a few months now. any horse with some stamina and early speed has had a pronounced edge going a route of ground at santa anita. did it seem odd to you that smith came up the rail in the santa margerita with zenyatta as apposed to circling the field like he usually does. this is why gomez was trying to move through on the rail with lucky in the santa anita derby. it was the place to be if you planned on winning. all this brings us to sidney's candy the flavor of the month in the derby spotlight. i give him good grades for winning the sa derby, but look at him warily when it comes to the kentucky derby. did sidney show us that he's a legitimate threat to win the derby? or is he the product of track bias?

sidney's candy did absolutely nothing toward being a derby prospect. It was pretty clear that he would win the SA Derby unless an unforseen setback occured or if Gomez and Lucky happened to have an extremely quick start that put them also on the lead out of the gate. Yes, there was a significant bias with the track.
Sadler? is very happy with the prep schedule and how it happened to favor a nimble horse with gate quickness. He gets to bring the owner along an exciting journey and it is great for business.

[Hanover1]

My biggest question would be the time between starts vs others......

[Vinnie]

Sidney's Candy is without question a very talented horse. However, I believe that he will have far too much company on or near the front end because I truly believe a horse such as Rule will be pressuring him from the get go and won't stand for him being all by himself on the front end. He may be a very quick horse but it isn't the type of reminiscent quickness of a horse the likes of say a War Emblem who was like a Black Jet out there with that incredibly high cruising speed where others simply had to fight to stay in his wake. If Sidney's Candy gets to the Derby and wins my hat is off to he and his connections. But, as long as a horse like Rule is also in the contest he will be a toss for me. :)

[Stevie Belmont]

I am somewhat familiar Storm Cat's dam side. I don't know the exact stats. I know the success rate has not been spectacular. I can only go on what I see a horse do.

And I think this one can get a mile and a quarter.


Sidney's Candy Fair Exchange by Storm Cat is the only offspring of multiple G1 winner Exchange, who died after producing her foal.

Jenny Craig named the horse after her late husband. I remember last year they came with Chocolate Candy, another Candy Ride who actually had Slew blood on the damside. His granddam was the product of bringing Alydar to Affirmed's mother (that's so messed up!)...

Has a Storm Cat damside influenced breeding ever been successful in the Derby?

[PaceAdvantage]

i am confident my analysis is correct.Using what metric? A fair question, don't you think?

[bisket]

Using what metric? A fair question, don't you think?
knowledge

[PaceAdvantage]

knowledgeThat's what I'm trying to discover...what are you basing this knowledge on...what metric or measuring tool led you to believe there was a speed bias in place? What are you basing this on?

The few others who have responded are saying you are wrong. So, I would like to hear why you think you are correct.

[bisket]

honestly all anyone nees to do is look at the charts from the past few weeks, and look at some replays of races that fit the bill. i'm not a statistic type of handicapper. i know alot of people here rely heavily on them, but my feelings are: when something becomes a statistic you've already missed the boat.

[cj]

Here is a very crude but quick metric. These are the winner's lengths back of the leader after 6f of the last 25 routes (8-10f) at SA.

0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0
3.3, 0.0, 0.0, 4.1, 4.6
4.5, 5.2, 0.0, 5.1, 7.0
6.6, 9.5, 3.5, 0.0, 8.1
6.5, 6.2, 7.6, 8.1, 3.0

7 of 25 were wire jobs (28%) and the average lengths back at the 6f mark for the winner was a hair over 4 lengths. This is certainly not a speed bias. I'll look up the inside vs outside later when I have more time.

[bisket]

my suggestion for both of you is to disregard every thing i said as hog wash.

[Cadillakin]

honestly all anyone nees to do is look at the charts from the past few weeks, and look at some replays of races that fit the bill. i'm not a statistic type of handicapper. i know alot of people here rely heavily on them, but my feelings are: when something becomes a statistic you've already missed the boat.
If you're going to accurately substantiate a bias, you need to back it up with data. Besides CJ's post above, I have data right before me that at 8.5 furlongs thru yesterday, on ProRide, wire to wire winners are winning at a less than 20% rate. 14 for 75. You can see from the chart below.. from Turfday Stats, that stalkers and mid-pack horses are much more suited to the Pro Ride Surface, in routes.

http://i44.tinypic.com/flfqpy.jpg

[PaceAdvantage]

my suggestion for both of you is to disregard every thing i said as hog wash.Seems like good advice based on the facts presented thus far. I wish you would have made your case as well...perhaps we all could have learned something.

Then again, it's also quite valuable to know who around here might be a costly fountain of misinformation

[WinterTriangle]

I dunno about fountain of misinformation, Pace? People give their opinions here, and it looks like bisket phrased it as a possible question:

is he the product of track bias?

I do disagree in this case, but we all handicap a different way, some hard math, others intuitive, etc. bisket has come up with a few doosie killer picks that won at long odds.

I don't play SA much but SC wired the field at 9F...which is against the bias, since SA isn't kind to early speed. Not to mention the stumbled start. He's won 3 times (?) there so I don't think he's getting an assist from track bias. ( That BSF of 100 is a bit odd though...I would put it higher....though admittedly, I don't understand the figures for synth.)

I have no idea if SC can win the derby. I do believe he can get 1-1/4 miles with no problem. He's a bit of a freak.


Vinnie...Rule is a toss for me. He's never gotten ahead of any horse at any point of call, went too fast early in the Fl derby where he also proved he can't sustain his speed for 9F. If Sidney's Candy is 5th, Rule will be 12th. :) I put SC at no worse than 5th.

[Vinnie]

Winter Triangle:

I hope that you are well? :) I am very much in agreement with your post. I don't believe that Rule has much of a chance either due to the fact that he simply insists on being in front. At least that is what he has shown thus far in his early racing career. He is a total throw out for me for the win. He runs with a tremendous amount of heart and determination, but clearly his running style could be an extreme detriment to his chances in the Derby.

Sidney's Candy may just shock me and some how manage to wire them in the Derby. I for one don't believe that is going to happen. I believe that he will have too much company quite frankly to be allowed to get too comfortable on the front. I just can't see him being all by himself up there. I do like the horse, the trainer John Sadler and the idea that this wonderful colt is named after Jenny Craig's late husband Sidney. It is a very nice story. :)

Have a super day WT!

[hazzardm]

I think there is a lot more than Rule that is going to be pressing SC. SuperSaver, Line of David, Rule, and Conveyance all want to pressure.

Oh yea, and American Lion posted 46 and change work yesterday.

[bisket]

i'm still up in the air about sid, but i'm leaning towards leaving him out of the tri. i won't make a final decision until i see his works prior to the derby. personally i think he already ran his derby last week. as far as rule is concerned he's definately someone that won't be in my trifecta.

[GaryG]

Will have to see the makeup of the field of course, but I plan to toss all of the early and close-up presser types. Esky can be rated (I think). Will definitely use Awesome Act.

[1GCFAN]

I think it is SC, Esky, and a shot for the top three. While SC has had his own way so has Esky. The latter has been outside of horses or on the lead since beign bounced around in the Breeders Cup. There is no way either gets their usual trips in the KD but I look for them to have the ability to overcome and be there at the finish.

I would like to think Awsome Act has the ability to get on the ticket but all those lines showing him rank and even the last start he was rank in my opinion but had the shoe problem as well.

[bisket]

so uh pace and cj lets get in writing. the inside is not favorable at santa anita?

[WinterTriangle]

i'm still up in the air about sid, but i'm leaning towards leaving him out of the tri. i won't make a final decision until i see his works prior to the derby. personally i think he already ran his derby last week. as far as rule is concerned he's definately someone that won't be in my trifecta.

Set aside some time to read this, it's very good. Pedigree analysis of all the contenders in the KY Derby. For anyone interested in the pedigree stuff, this is very good:
http://i.bloodhorse.com/downloads/special-reports/pdfs/kentucky-derby-136-contenders-pedigree-profiles-415019585.pdf

One of the reasons I study this stuff is because there is no way, when almost every horse in the race has only run ONE 1-1/8 mile race, to know if they can do 1-1/4 or the Belmont no less! You have to be able to see the whole pedigree, and not just the sire. Many of these have very deep influences, stamina, further in their pedigree.

[bisket]

sid has to much speed influence and not enough stamina. which explains his style of running. this doesn't make a good case that he's going to thrive even more going 1 1/4 mile.

[WinterTriangle]

sid has to much speed influence and not enough stamina. which explains his style of running. this doesn't make a good case that he's going to thrive even more going 1 1/4 mile.

Well I can't speak to him thriving.

I can speak to the fact that if you did a complete work-up of his pedigree, his speed to stamina index is very good 8/11= .79 (speed is 8, stamina is 11. (The Avg. stamina index of a horse who can win the KY Derby is 0.75) What you don't want is a horse in the derby with more speed than stamina in their index......and Sid doesn't show that. Just because a horse is fast, or a frontrunner, doesn't mean they have no stamina.

I don't know what *enough* stamina is. I can tell you that he is capable theoretically of 1-1/4 and that his stamina index is absolutely fine. Better than many others like Aikenite, Connemara, Noble's Promise, etc.

Also, bisket, you have to allow for *freaks*. Many outrun their pedigrees.

The KY Derby is a chaos race anyway. It's fun playing around with this, but truth is, in a 20 horse field, the ability to run into problems on the turn, have mountains of dirt thrown into your eyes, get into traffic and have to check, going wide, getting bumped (some of these horses, and even jockeys, will be scared shitless believe me).....90% of the field has only run ONE 1-1/8 race, and never in a field of 20 horses!

It's all about playing a huge pool where there will be lots of stupid $$$, and a chance for hitting some very good values in exotics by playing some well thought out tickets. It's also all about RISK. Because the best horse may not win......the horse with the best trip will win.

That's it for me....the analyzing part is just.........fun. Because the best horse on May 1st, not the best horse yesterday, will win this.......and it might just be because they got lucky and their jockey weaved 'em right to overcome stuff. Lower exotics horses will be at 20-1+ odds. Great betting race in one way, terrible in another sense. LOL.

[PaceAdvantage]

I dunno about fountain of misinformation, Pace? People give their opinions here, and it looks like bisket phrased it as a possible question:No he didn't. The first line of his post is the following:

santa anita has had a pronounced inside bias for a few months now.That looks like a statement of fact to me. And that is what a few people here have taken issue with.

[bisket]

No he didn't. The first line of his post is the following:

That looks like a statement of fact to me. And that is what a few people here have taken issue with.
because they can't statistically see why there's a bias.
woooooooohoooo!!!!
i'm loving every minute of it!!!

[GaryG]

because they can't statistically see why there's a bias.
woooooooohoooo!!!!
i'm loving every minute of it!!!You are saying that there has been a pronounced inside bias but the figures don't show it? That's one that I don't understand.

[bisket]

You are saying that there has been a pronounced inside bias but the figures don't show it? That's one that I don't understand.
did you bother to even look past the stats?

[joanied]

Set aside some time to read this, it's very good. Pedigree analysis of all the contenders in the KY Derby. For anyone interested in the pedigree stuff, this is very good:
http://i.bloodhorse.com/downloads/special-reports/pdfs/kentucky-derby-136-contenders-pedigree-profiles-415019585.pdf

One of the reasons I study this stuff is because there is no way, when almost every horse in the race has only run ONE 1-1/8 mile race, to know if they can do 1-1/4 or the Belmont no less! You have to be able to see the whole pedigree, and not just the sire. Many of these have very deep influences, stamina, further in their pedigree.

Thanks for the link, Winter T... great reading and insight to the Derby horse's bloodlines...and IMO, one must take every pedigree into deep consideration. I agree, a lot of folks look to the sire, and the broodmare sire and kinda stop there...but we know that looking back past the 3rd or 4th generation produces a much cleaer picture as to what horses have it in their blood to get the distance...and if in winning the first two legs, would have a legit shot at the Belmont too.

[GaryG]

did you bother to even look past the stats?I simply asked how you determine that there has been a pronounced bias....but forget it.

[bisket]

I simply asked how you determine that there has been a pronounced bias....but forget it.
i will talk about that after the derby. i'm sorry i'm a little defensive.

[Dahoss9698]

You certainly need some pretty big boots to wade through these threads.

[PaceAdvantage]

i will talk about that after the derby. i'm sorry i'm a little defensive.You should apologize for being annoying as well. You're playing games, but something tells me this is intentional.

[bisket]

You should apologize for being annoying as well. You're playing games, but something tells me this is intentional.
no its not intentional. anyone quoting that 20% of the time horses are going wire to wire at santa anita (most breaking from the inside by the way) in the past few months. SHOULD BE GENUINE ENOUGH TO SAY THIS IN ITSELF IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THIS HAPPENING ALMOST NEVER BEFORE JANUARY. hmm and it rained alot this year just like in 2008.

[bisket]

Here is a very crude but quick metric. These are the winner's lengths back of the leader after 6f of the last 25 routes (8-10f) at SA.

0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0
3.3, 0.0, 0.0, 4.1, 4.6
4.5, 5.2, 0.0, 5.1, 7.0
6.6, 9.5, 3.5, 0.0, 8.1
6.5, 6.2, 7.6, 8.1, 3.0

7 of 25 were wire jobs (28%) and the average lengths back at the 6f mark for the winner was a hair over 4 lengths. This is certainly not a speed bias. I'll look up the inside vs outside later when I have more time.
THIS IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE!!!!!!!!

[cj]

There is a big difference between "moving from extremely closer biased to less closer biased" and "biased towards speed and the inside".

[bisket]

winter. with candy ride as the sire, i'd be more comfrotable with more stamina from the mare.

[bisket]

There is a big difference between "moving from extremely closer biased to less closer biased" and "biased towards speed and the inside".
so we're essentially arguing over a matter of semantics. the idea behind the thread is basically: don't hold a front running winning performance going a route of ground in such high regard at santa anita as you may have before january of this year. the track is playing quite different this year. now this doesn't mean that sid can't or won't win the derby. its just a word of caution to those getting really excited over the horse performance in the santa anita derby. i do feel although, if a horse runs a certain type of race at santa anita this year, the track is very biased to their style!!

[Stevie Belmont]

Sidney's Candy Dazzles In First Churchill Work (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/2010/04/17/santa-anita-derby-winner-sidneys-candy-has-first-churchill-work-makers-derby-oaks-du)

[Audioslavery]

Just heard that Sidney ran 6f at Churchill this morning,

1:11.60 in the slop! That sounds pretty damn solid to me.

[joanied]

Just heard that Sidney ran 6f at Churchill this morning,

1:11.60 in the slop! That sounds pretty damn solid to me.

IMO, if there is a horse in the Derby that can go wire to wire...it's Sidney's Candy.

[Audioslavery]

I think he'll be inside the pace, probably hit traffic and fade.

But I'm rooting for him over anyone else, then maybe the baffert duo after that.

[NTamm1215]

IMO, if there is a horse in the Derby that can go wire to wire...it's Sidney's Candy.

It was the lightning quick pace that he set in the San Felipe and SA Derby that makes you feel that way, right?

I've yet to figure out how many people knock Eskendereya for pace-aided wins then speak glowingly about Sidney's Candy. I can't come up with any plausible scenario where Sidney's Candy wins. Anyone betting him hoping that he's going to rate when he's passed one horse in his entire career pre-Derby is taking a gigantic leap of faith.

NT

[Audioslavery]

I've yet to figure out how many people knock Eskendereya for pace-aided wins then speak glowingly about Sidney's Candy. I can't come up with any plausible scenario where Sidney's Candy wins. Anyone betting him hoping that he's going to rate when he's passed one horse in his entire career pre-Derby is taking a gigantic leap of faith.

NT

You obviously forgot the fact that half of this thread is about... synthetic surface is extremely difficult to go wire to wire on, let alone do it in a manner like Sid did during the SA Derby. That alone sets him in a class of his own, he is only going to be quicker and more responsive on dirt.

[RXB]

But how is he going to get the lead? Or, more specifically, how is he going to get the lead without running significantly faster early than he has in his recent races?

The way things are shaping up, it really looks difficult to make a case for a frontrunner, in my view. And Sidney's Candy doesn't even appear to the "speed of the speed."

[miesque]

My goal this weekend is to sort out the Derby picture in my mind, watch all the preps at least two more times and come up with what hopefully are the right three longshots to couple with the more logicals and then make adjustments as far as post position and defections next Fri evening/Sat morning. As I see it right now there are three logicals, Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy and I would be surprised if those were not the top three favorites in that order. Sidney's Candy will be the much longer price of those three because I know there are those who are automatically tossing him because of his unpressured front running victories. I am taking the view that Sidney's Candy will be the only front runner that I will be using in my wagers and the reason. In the Derby there are often one or two upfront runners who on Derby day are not as forwardly placed as usual and as such are able to have a better pace situation then initially thought when looking at the race and conversely there are also one or two of those whom one would think would be midpack or so which end up much, much closer to the salty pace as they round that first turn. There is no way to know with certainty which horses will adapt the best, but I think Sidney's Candy not only has the best chance of those early speed horses in the Derby to adapt to the hotter pace and sit in a strategic stalking spot but is also tremendously talented and I expect him to move forward in Derby. Sidney's Candy has what I consider to be a more mature, confident, "cool as a cucumber" demeanor and if you watched the post parade for the Santa Anita Derby it was on display. Santa Anita had a crowd of over 40K for Santa Anita Derby day and almost all the hroses in the post parade were at least a little warm, a few somewhat unsettled and even Lookin at Lucky looked a little wet and slightly on edge. Sidney's Candy did not have a hair out of place and had a confident walk of a kid too cool for school and was not in the least bothered by the crowd or warmer temp. The fact that his come home times have been pretty solid even though he was on the lead (albeit with moderate fractions) make him more palatable then some of the other front runner for whom even there works are pour it on early and lack the necessary strength towards the end. Watching the works and how the various contenders finish up and gallop out can be quite useful.

Now I will have to admit that Sidney's Candy has very much been on my radar since his debut and I always thought he had a tremendous amount of talent and potential and my faith in him so far has been well rewarded and if he is horse that would be the most personally gratifying if they won the Derby (also Lookin at Lucky, but to a lesser extent). That said, the cruel,cold hearted horseplayer in me is well aware that I am bending some rules to fit Sidney's Candy into my Derby wagering schema and that he has a much tougher task ahead of him then Lookin at Lucky whom is the horse I would chose if I had to pick just one horse for the Derby (and thankfully I don't and am willing to spend the money doing six deep)

[Audioslavery]

But how is he going to get the lead? Or, more specifically, how is he going to get the lead without running significantly faster early than he has in his recent races?

The way things are shaping up, it really looks difficult to make a case for a frontrunner, in my view. And Sidney's Candy doesn't even appear to the "speed of the speed."

I just wrote my theory a few posts above you, I think the skepticism is pretty universal for the horse but I think he's a sentimental favority as opposed to LaL and Esky.

He will hit traffic and the distance is iffy for him, but we'll see.

[Stevie Belmont]

Sidney's Candy Impressive in Six Furlong Work

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56631/sidneys-candy-impressive-in-six-furlong-work?source=rss

This horse cruises—won't be on the lead. Confident he can sit off the expected pace setters. The speed of the speed early on is Conveyance. I have little doubts that he will rocket out there and go as far as he can. I'm sure he will have some company—WinStar is loaded and I think some of their horses will be out there as well.

Bottom line—could be a real fast pace. And if 85ina50 wins today and they decide to run—look out—pace could be insane and being to close to that could spell doom for anyone.

I have a pretty good grip on what I think will happen. Think SC and a few others are the main players next Saturday.

Watched the Wood again—was there that day as well. I will say this about Eskendereya—he looks tha part.

Looks like an exciting Derby on tap.

[bisket]

You obviously forgot the fact that half of this thread is about... synthetic surface is extremely difficult to go wire to wire on, let alone do it in a manner like Sid did during the SA Derby. That alone sets him in a class of his own, he is only going to be quicker and more responsive on dirt.
i think you may have missed my point. fact is your statement that going wire to wire is very difficult at santa WAS in fact the case before january of this year. in some cases this is still correct. in sid's case he had some things working in his FAVOR as far as the track surface was concerned in the sa derby. i guess all i'm trying to say is don't give sid extra credit for going wire to wire at santa anita. the track has been playing differently this year.

[RXB]

Sidney's Candy Impressive in Six Furlong Work


Welsch's report not so encouraging; last furlong in 13 2/5, weak gallop out.

[joanied]

Welsch's report not so encouraging; last furlong in 13 2/5, weak gallop out.

huh...too fast ealry...not enough to finish...not a good omen for the Derby...I am actually taking all these works with a grain of sand...they're all working well...but some are not galloping out very strong...

[Market Mover]

Welsch's report not so encouraging; last furlong in 13 2/5, weak gallop out.


weak gallop out for a weak horse. Listen to John Sadler in his postrace comments and you'll kick yourself for even thinking this guy's worthy of a Derby win..

[Riley]

weak gallop out for a weak horse. Listen to John Sadler in his postrace comments and you'll kick yourself for even thinking this guy's worthy of a Derby win..

Calling this horse weak is laughable. He's the fastest horse in the Derby. He's run faster than Lookin At Lucky and Eskendereya going 1 1/16 and 1 1/8. I've seen a lot of people mention he's never won on the dirt but he broke his maiden on the dirt and set a track record. Candy Ride got the 10 furlongs so there's no reason why Sidney can't. So he slowed a little on a sloppy tack, he still got the 6 furlongs in 1:11 and change. That's nothing to pooh-pooh at.

He has a very good chance to win.

[jbrown007]

Calling this horse weak is laughable. He's the fastest horse in the Derby. He's run faster than Lookin At Lucky and Eskendereya going 1 1/16 and 1 1/8. I've seen a lot of people mention he's never won on the dirt but he broke his maiden on the dirt and set a track record. Candy Ride got the 10 furlongs so there's no reason why Sidney can't. So he slowed a little on a sloppy tack, he still got the 6 furlongs in 1:11 and change. That's nothing to pooh-pooh at.

He has a very good chance to win.

Um where did he break his maiden on dirt? The racing form shows he broke his maiden at delmar on a synthetic surface. I guess they are lying. I agree you have to be very cautious evaluating sloppy works but I still want to see a strong gallop out. I hope he doesn't slow after going 1:11 in the derby because I am pretty sure they will be going a few ticks faster then that this year. Toss for me.

[Riley]

http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Sidneys_Candy has him listed as running on dirt. Should have looked a little closer.

I still think it's ridiculous to call this horse weak. ;)

[joanied]

I got to see his work on the Pursuit of the Crown show...and while Seigle was saying SC was galloping out strong...I saw a horse that looked rather tired...like he was struggeling...I don't know, but I think this horse will fizzle in the Derby.

[Audioslavery]

I got to see his work on the Pursuit of the Crown show...and while Seigle was saying SC was galloping out strong...I saw a horse that looked rather tired...like he was struggeling...I don't know, but I think this horse will fizzle in the Derby.

I saw that last night, and dang, ICE BOX looked insane!

[joanied]

I saw that last night, and dang, ICE BOX looked insane!

Sidney's Candy looked tired to you also? good, my eyes do not decieve me:faint:
Agree...Ice Box did look awesome...great gallop out...IMO, he shouldn't be left out of anyones wager.

[joanied]

weak gallop out for a weak horse. Listen to John Sadler in his postrace comments and you'll kick yourself for even thinking this guy's worthy of a Derby win..

Could you post what Sadler said...I missed it, and now I am curious. Thanks.

[GaryG]

I saw that last night, and dang, ICE BOX looked insane!By my figures Ice Box earned the same speed fig as Pletcher's filly that day. I believe Beyer had the filly a point or two higher.

[1GCFAN]

I have been on the SC bandwagon since January and the weak gallop out is alarming given how this horse carries himself so well. Could it be that he might not like the surface?

I will be watching Sadlers comments very closely.

[joanied]

I have been on the SC bandwagon since January and the weak gallop out is alarming given how this horse carries himself so well. Could it be that he might not like the surface?

I will be watching Sadlers comments very closely.

I never was on SC...but did figure he might run well...but after that gallop out...fuhgetaboutit!! Won't matter what Sadler says, because like all the rainers leading up to the Derby, unless something obvious hsows up...they all say the same things :bang:

[Stevie Belmont]

Is this work anywhere I can watch it.

I never heard a word about the gallop out...

[miesque]

Yesterday was Sidney's Candy first time working or even galloping over a sloppy track. He was a little more eager around the turn then I would have liked but he did respond well when asked that final furlong putting a fair amount of separation between himself and the stable mate when he passed under the wire. Since it was a sloppy track and he was not ridden out like some others past the wire I am not as concerned about his gallop out (although obviously you like to see a strong gallop out). Watching the work a few times I don't think he relished the slop and certainly did not move up on it, rather did what he needed to do. Henceforth it will be a concern is the track comes up sloppy/muddy on Derby Day but much less so if the track is fast.

[joanied]

You didn't think he looked as if he was tired in the gallop out? I agree, maybe he wasn't ridden out, but still, his stride shortened up quickly...maybe it was the slop and he decided to pull himself up?

[Riley]

Yesterday was Sidney's Candy first time working or even galloping over a sloppy track. He was a little more eager around the turn then I would have liked but he did respond well when asked that final furlong putting a fair amount of separation between himself and the stable mate when he passed under the wire. Since it was a sloppy track and he was not ridden out like some others past the wire I am not as concerned about his gallop out (although obviously you like to see a strong gallop out). Watching the work a few times I don't think he relished the slop and certainly did not move up on it, rather did what he needed to do. Henceforth it will be a concern is the track comes up sloppy/muddy on Derby Day but much less so if the track is fast.

I think this sums it up well. I really like him and he's still one of my picks but I definitely won't be as confident if the track is muddy.

[joanied]

Is this work anywhere I can watch it.

I never heard a word about the gallop out...

Stevie...I was at the HRTV site yesterday and clicked on the Kentucky Derby site on the HRTV home page...I am almost certain I saw that they have alll the Derby works...I don't have time to go back...until maybe later today...so give it a shot.
If you can't find the works...let me know and I'll go look.
:)

[Stevie Belmont]

I saw the works. Is Sadler saying he is not as confident in his colt's chances on a sloppy track? Talamo said he loved the slop...

This is killin me...


Stevie...I was at the HRTV site yesterday and clicked on the Kentucky Derby site on the HRTV home page...I am almost certain I saw that they have alll the Derby works...I don't have time to go back...until maybe later today...so give it a shot.
If you can't find the works...let me know and I'll go look.
:)

[MNslappy]

the thing I just can't get past right now, after my first look at the PPs following the draw is, the two bad starts, which if happened Sat would destroy his chances breaking from 20) and all those 1s in his lines. He's going to have to pass at least 3 or 4 horses to win. And on a wet, muddy, or sloppy dirt track no less. A week ago he was a candidate for the top of my ticket; looking at it more closely, I think he might be off the board.

[bisket]

Seems like good advice based on the facts presented thus far. I wish you would have made your case as well...perhaps we all could have learned something.

Then again, it's also quite valuable to know who around here might be a costly fountain of misinformation
any chance there was some good info in this thread? :p

[PaceAdvantage]

any chance there was some good info in this thread? :pNot to me. Sidney's Candy was a non-contender in my book, and it had nothing to do with whether or not there was a track bias that day.

Plus, more than one person in this thread provided hard evidence that your theory was not valid.

[bisket]

Not to me. Sidney's Candy was a non-contender in my book, and it had nothing to do with whether or not there was a track bias that day.

Plus, more than one person in this thread provided hard evidence that your theory was not valid.
here is what was going on at santa anita the last 4 months. i didn't your picks anywhere on the board pa. anyone looking at replays and analyzing the charts will surely see it is accurate. post #9 in this thread.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=69751

[PaceAdvantage]

here is what was going on at santa anita the last 4 months. i didn't your picks anywhere on the board pa. anyone looking at replays and analyzing the charts will surely see it is accurate. post #9 in this thread.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=69751I most certainly did post my picks...right on the home page:

http://www.paceadvantage.com

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=69703

I'm about to take it down off the front page, so you better hurry and read my words of wisdom... :lol:

[bisket]

well pa you did as well as i did.

[bisket]

lest see... sid loses to skipshot in the swaps..... wooooohoooo!!!!!!!! da bisket is always one step ahead of the damater can club. can't wait until zen zipps on past the rest in the classic....
i'm really enjoying myself tooday :kiss: :p

a bias at santa anita last winter???

[PaceAdvantage]

lest see... sid loses to skipshot in the swaps..... wooooohoooo!!!!!!!! da bisket is always one step ahead of the damater can club. can't wait until zen zipps on past the rest in the classic....
i'm really enjoying myself tooday :kiss: :p

a bias at santa anita last winter???I'm curious whose face you think you're rubbing something in? You can see right in this thread that I thought SC wasn't a contender back then and not because of any track bias.

And why would you point to this thread as proof you didn't like SC yesterday?

Do you ever post picks before the race?

I kind of wish you were the one taking on Dahoss in that contest thread...

[Hedevar]

I'm curious whose face you think you're rubbing something in? You can see right in this thread that I thought SC wasn't a contender back then and not because of any track bias.

And why would you point to this thread as proof you didn't like SC yesterday?

Do you ever post picks before the race?

I kind of wish you were the one taking on Dahoss in that contest thread...

I'm afraid that match would not draw much interest. Nobody pays any attention to those squash matches.

[WinterTriangle]

I'm afraid that match would not draw much interest.

The contest that is running now is predicated on bad sportsmanship.

It started out negative (taunting, personal attacks, gloating)..........and it will end that way.
Why is win/win a foreign concept? What is wrong with a friendly respectful contest, perhaps even with teams, with the end result being positive (a nice donation to a worthy charity) and everyone in the contest is respected for their hard work?

I myself don't follow competitions that start out with bad sportmanship, where the "loser" is asked to leave the board, and other people poke their nose in to register sarcastic remarks during it...like a high school popularity contest.

In tennis, people hop over the net and shakes hands afterward, and live on to play another day. :shakes head:
Sportmanship is not about pitting individuals against each other when you already know they don't respect or even like each other. This is not about sportsmanship, handicapping, or anything having to do with our sport.

I'm disheartened to see this kind of "competition" hosted here, but I guess that's what the participants wanted. :confused:

Even if the conditions weren't that one would leave the board, somebody would probably leave. It's a great way to lose forum members.

[Dahoss9698]

The contest that is running now is predicated on bad sportsmanship.

It started out negative (taunting, personal attacks, gloating)..........and it will end that way.
Why is win/win a foreign concept? What is wrong with a friendly respectful contest, perhaps even with teams, with the end result being positive (a nice donation to a worthy charity) and everyone in the contest is respected for their hard work?

I myself don't follow competitions that start out with bad sportmanship, where the "loser" is asked to leave the board, and other people poke their nose in to register sarcastic remarks during it...like a high school popularity contest.

In tennis, people hop over the net and shakes hands afterward, and live on to play another day. :shakes head:
Sportmanship is not about pitting individuals against each other when you already know they don't respect or even like each other. This is not about sportsmanship, handicapping, or anything having to do with our sport.

I'm disheartened to see this kind of "competition" hosted here, but I guess that's what the participants wanted. :confused:

Even if the conditions weren't that one would leave the board, somebody would probably leave. It's a great way to lose forum members.


Frankly your holier than thou bullshit is tiresome. We get it already. You think you know what is best for everyone and you love telling everyone about it. No one cares. For someone not following it though, you seem to know an awful lot about this competition that is going on.

Here's an idea....start your own horse racing message board. That way you won't have to be "disheartened" by a competition that has absolutely nothing to do with you.

[WinterTriangle]

Frankly your holier than thou bullshit is tiresome. We get it already.

No, you don't get it.


Don't pretend these are "my" rules. Good sportsmanship is a golden rule and I didn't invent it. It's predicated on respect, not dislike, ultimatums, and personal insults.

I put this out to a group of coaches in children's athletic programs on my regional forum. They don't consider it holier-than-thou. They consider it stuff they live by and pass on.

Pitting people against each other in a contest that started out with trash talking is a formula to create more bad blood. Wasn't GM10 supposed to be in one of them? Again, that was a contest designed to include people who have personality conflicts.



I did read thru some of it tonight. There was a comment about your popularity. Some other stuff about the other player's baseball background. (Personal stuff).

Only11 based the contest on you leaving the forum if you lost. :eek: I don't know of many friendly handicapping contests with those "rules". It's like saying "this town ain't big enough for both of us".

Sorry but i think it's absurd. Nobody wins.

[Hedevar]

No, you don't get it.


Don't pretend these are "my" rules. Good sportsmanship is a golden rule and I didn't invent it. It's predicated on respect, not dislike, ultimatums, and personal insults.

I put this out to a group of coaches in children's athletic programs on my regional forum. They don't consider it holier-than-thou. They consider it stuff they live by and pass on.

Pitting people against each other in a contest that started out with trash talking is a formula to create more bad blood. Wasn't GM10 supposed to be in one of them? Again, that was a contest designed to include people who have personality conflicts.



I did read thru some of it tonight. There was a comment about your popularity. Some other stuff about the other player's baseball background. (Personal stuff).

Only11 based the contest on you leaving the forum if you lost. :eek: I don't know of many friendly handicapping contests with those "rules". It's like saying "this town ain't big enough for both of us".

Sorry but i think it's absurd. Nobody wins.


No matter what you think of the contest, it has nothing to do with you. Nobody is being hurt. Someone may have to leave the board and someone may have to donate to a charity. Both participants are adults. Instead of trying to impose your moral values, let other people live and leave it alone! By the way someone will win.

[Dahoss9698]

No, you don't get it.


Don't pretend these are "my" rules. Good sportsmanship is a golden rule and I didn't invent it. It's predicated on respect, not dislike, ultimatums, and personal insults.

I put this out to a group of coaches in children's athletic programs on my regional forum. They don't consider it holier-than-thou. They consider it stuff they live by and pass on.

Pitting people against each other in a contest that started out with trash talking is a formula to create more bad blood. Wasn't GM10 supposed to be in one of them? Again, that was a contest designed to include people who have personality conflicts.



I did read thru some of it tonight. There was a comment about your popularity. Some other stuff about the other player's baseball background. (Personal stuff).

Only11 based the contest on you leaving the forum if you lost. :eek: I don't know of many friendly handicapping contests with those "rules". It's like saying "this town ain't big enough for both of us".

Sorry but i think it's absurd. Nobody wins.

Look, what you are missing is not every competition is friendly. You think two boxers are friendly before a fight? They want to kill each other before and during the fight and afterwards will shake hands. Have you ever seen a pre fight press conference?

Do you think football teams are interested in sportsmanship during a game? Afterwards they shake hands, but during the competition it's not all about puppy dogs and flowers. Sportsmanship is great for kids athletics. Everyone plays and everyone gets a trophy, whether you win your league or come in last place.

Great....but not all competitions are like this. This is especially true as we get older. There is a winner and a loser. The competitors sometimes don't like each other and we don't have to.

But most importantly, who cares what you think? Why do you feel the need to impose your set of values on everybody? I don't remember anyone asking for them or wanting them. We all get it, you're the female version of that guy in the Dos Equis commercials. You're the worlds most interesting female. All of your life experiences and antecdotes really hammer that point across.

You don't agree with the competition? Who cares? Don't follow it then. But we both know you will. And we both know you'll have the pm train rolling along talking about it.