MY BIGGEST HANDICAPPING QUESTION...

[thaskalos]

I am somewhat ashamed to admit, that in almost 30 years of serious handicapping and betting, I have been unable to answer the following question, to my complete satisfaction.

Why do the majority of race horses fail to duplicate their speed and pace figures when they move up in class? I sometimes see horses rising in class, who figure to just dominate their field! They enjoy every possible advantage a horse could have over its competition. Superior early speed AND higher speed figures. And yet, the vast majority of the time, not only do they lose badly...they cannot even take the early lead! Some other, seemingly slower horse hooks them into a speed duel, and runs them into the ground.

What is it that makes even a small rise in class have such a negative impact on a horse's performance? What is it that prevents the cheaper horse from taking the lead and running the same early fractions that it does when it faces slightly inferior competition?

Is it a case of the higher class horses having the ability to intimidate the cheaper one "with a glance", like noted handicapping author Mark Cramer indicated in his book FORM CYCLES, or does it have more to do with trainer intent?

Is it that the trainer, thinking that his horse is outclassed today, and, having found a more suitable race for the horse in the near future, has told the jockey not to push the horse to the limits of its ability, and to save its best effort for the better race "next time"?

Could it be that class exists most prominently...in the trainer's head??

[LRL Racing]

Horses sense the superior athlete and the ones that may kick their butt. Unfortunately I read about jockeys pulling horses, trainers intentions, etc. but the truth is that alot of horses won't let you pull them and when you do pull one they learn to stop which backfires on the plan to run in a later race. I believe the class angle you speak of is 100% horses knowing who the class is on the track based on a herd mentality.

[Charlie D]

An example or examples would help thaskalos i think. Post some PP's of where you think the scenario took place.

[lamboguy]

not a stupid question at all. when you step up you face tougher horses than you faced prior. the horse can have trouble hold off a horse from passing him, or have a problem passing another horse. when a horse is a winner, he has proven heart, it just depends how big that heart is.

[Show Me the Wire]

thaskalos:

I vote for Cramer's theory.

[JustRalph]

I used to grapple with this same problem. Mostly when it came to Maiden winners last out.......... now facing winners for the first time. I solved with my database pretty easily actually. The numbers for non maidens moving up is about the same.

Info from a generic Database I have for 2008
It's not a huge database, but I find these numbers are about the same
no matter the size of the database. I used this one because it doesn't take forever to get the info.

Horses that were coming off maiden scores moving into races first time
against winners. No filters, just all Last out maiden winners.

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 1261.40 1307.80 1453.30
Bet -1852.00 -1852.00 -1852.00
Gain -590.60 -544.20 -398.70

Wins 116 230 341
Plays 926 926 926
PCT .1253 .2484 .3683

ROI 0.6811 0.7062 0.7847
Avg Mut 10.87 5.69 4.26

The Numbers below are for the same scenario except that it only flags horses who have a trainer that is rated above 85 in the Jcapper ratings. This is only about ten percent of trainers in this database. You can see that it makes a huge difference who is placing/training the horse.

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 309.90 284.80 247.20
Bet -264.00 -264.00 -264.00
Gain 45.90 20.80 -16.80

Wins 37 62 75
Plays 132 132 132
PCT .2803 .4697 .5682

ROI 1.1739 1.0788 0.9364
Avg Mut 8.38 4.59 3.30

The numbers below are if those same horses are rated 1st or 2nd in the Jcapper JPR rating. Short prices abound.....but these horses have top trainers, along with top figures. I see a difference in the connections as the difference. Is that placement ? Training methods? Better stock? ....personally I don't care. As long as I can point at the trainer or such to solve this puzzle. It works pretty damn well.

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 126.70 144.60 120.00
Bet -106.00 -106.00 -106.00
Gain 20.70 38.60 14.00

Wins 19 34 38
Plays 53 53 53
PCT .3585 .6415 .7170

ROI 1.1953 1.3642 1.1321
Avg Mut 6.67 4.25 3.16

I think when it comes to moving them up in class and spotting or placing horses, the trainer is everything.............and it works for me in the long run.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Classier TBreds have superior legs and lungs.

[Robert Goren]

Classier horses are able to move faster when they are asked. Pain is the great equalizer.These two rules apply to anything racing whether it be horses or camels or dogs or humans. Class can vary as distances changes. JMO

[Greyfox]

Classier TBreds have superior legs and lungs.
Probably true.
Nutty as I am, I believe "Horse's Talk."

[Sekrah]

I am somewhat ashamed to admit, that in almost 30 years of serious handicapping and betting, I have been unable to answer the following question, to my complete satisfaction.

Why do the majority of race horses fail to duplicate their speed and pace figures when they move up in class? I sometimes see horses rising in class, who figure to just dominate their field! They enjoy every possible advantage a horse could have over its competition. Superior early speed AND higher speed figures. And yet, the vast majority of the time, not only do they lose badly...they cannot even take the early lead! Some other, seemingly slower horse hooks them into a speed duel, and runs them into the ground.

What is it that makes even a small rise in class have such a negative impact on a horse's performance? What is it that prevents the cheaper horse from taking the lead and running the same early fractions that it does when it faces slightly inferior competition?

Is it a case of the higher class horses having the ability to intimidate the cheaper one "with a glance", like noted handicapping author Mark Cramer indicated in his book FORM CYCLES, or does it have more to do with trainer intent?

Is it that the trainer, thinking that his horse is outclassed today, and, having found a more suitable race for the horse in the near future, has told the jockey not to push the horse to the limits of its ability, and to save its best effort for the better race "next time"?

Could it be that class exists most prominently...in the trainer's head??


The correct answer hasn't been posted yet. It's the bounce.

Here's the scenario:

1. Horse runs big race to win $20,000 Claimer.
2. Trainer moves horse up to $30,000 Claimer 3 or 4 weeks later.
3. Horse stinks up the track in 7th place. He must have been outclassed? No. He bounced.

The above-average effort it took to win $20k claimer took a toll on the horse and he was unable to repeat it 3 weeks later. That he was running against tougher horses doesn't matter. Although there are certaintly plenty of cases where a front-running speed horse who can't rate will be negatively affected by big class moves. Most of the time it's a bounce.

Here's a PP from Mountaineer's 4th race tonight:

http://img63.imageshack.us/img63/3733/hootentownhill.png



The 87 speed fig on Aug 29th in the MC30000 looks solid enough for Hooten Town Hill. But the career top put the horse out of action for nearly 2 months and when he returned he still wasn't right. The trainer actually started dropping him in class. He started rebuilding his form, getting back into shape and about 3 1/2 months after that 87, boom! On Dec 14th he ran a nice 76 to win a Mdn 20k at Mountaineer. I watched the video of that race, out of the 6-hole he was 3 or 4 wide around the turn which makes that 76 look like an even bigger effort. (Here's where the value of ground-loss figures like Thorograph come into hand)

They tried to bring him back in an Allowance race 2 weeks later.. Pfft.. Ran a 64. Gets dropped to a Claiming $20k. 53? Stiff again, Drop him. Claiming $10k? Nope ran a 62. Drop him again to $5k. Boom.. It's 3 months after the last big effort and he runs a 79 to win a Claiming $5k. Alright, we'll leave him in down here, he should do well now the trainer has found this horses class? Wrong.






http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/7471/mountaineer4th.png



It wouldn't have mattered if they moved him up or down, based on this horses pattern and form cycle he was going back into the tank. Yet there were still suckers in the public that bet him down to 8/5 and watched him fail to respond.

Albert Dodge (19% trainer) brings Chobe in 2nd off a layoff to score at 23-1. Chobe had a win and and two 2nds at Claiming 8k in Tampa last year which is significantly tougher than the Claiming $5ks at Mountaineer.

Just one of many examples that can be found where the favorite can be tossed and value searched elsewhere.


But remember not all horses bounce/react the same way. You have to observe the horses patterns/form cycles. Fillie & Mares will succumb to the bounce more than most colts, but there are certaintly unsound colts like the one I just exampled. Horses also tend to bounce less off turf and synthetics.

[Robert Goren]

The speed figure guys always say that a horse "bounced" when ever a horse moves up in claiming price and get beat. It has been my experence that horse "bounces" a lot less often when it is running back for the same tag. JMO

[Sekrah]

The speed figure guys always say that a horse "bounced" when ever a horse moves up in claiming price and get beat. It has been my experence that horse "bounces" a lot less often when it is running back for the same tag. JMO


Well my example perfectly shows an 8/5 horse, very predictably bouncing at the same tag.

I could dredge up another 1000 of them if I had the time. If you'd like, I can show you the PPs from 6 of the 10 horses in Mountaineer's 1st race, a Maiden Claiming $5k for older Fillies & Mares. They run 2nd, 3rd or a big figure, come back at the same tag and finished up the track.

[Robert Goren]

Hooten Town Hill was moving from a NW 2L to NW 3L. This a big jump in class in my book even though the claiming price remained the same. I almost never bet a horse doing that. I figure that a drop of at least 2 levels in claiming price to make up for that change in conditions. That is not to say he didn't bounced, he may have, but there is no way to know. It is highly unlikely that he will ever find another field of 5K claimers that he can beat. Heres the way I look at him. 2 starts on the turf which he might not like. Runs a nice 2nd for M30K. He is off 2 months, but Kentucky circuit is changing tracks so I don't read too much into that. He runs a clunker on the synthetic at Kee. Maybe he doesn't like that stuff. Run a nice 2nd at Haw for M25K. Slips into Mdn at mnr and wins. Mdn at Mnr is probably about same as M25K at Haw and step down from M30k at Elp. They try him an AlwNW2l is way out classed. They try him again TP on the Synthetic at 20KNw2l and he shows nothing. He beats half the field at 10Knw2l. He is getting closer to a field he can beat. They cut his tag in half again in Nw2l and he romps. Then goes to the 5knw3l which is about equal to the 10knw2l that he had run 5th in. He get beat like he should. JMO

[Sekrah]

Your opinion is wrong sir. Hate to put it bluntly like that but there's really not another way to say it. The NW2 to NW3 is a class jump but in this class its not nearly as pronounced as you'd like to think. This race will get a BRIS race rating of 108. A 2 point jump from his last race.. Only 1 pt stronger than the Maiden Claimer 30k he ran the 87 on Aug 09. If he were in the same condition as he was last time out, he wouldn't finish nearly dead last. It is an indisputable fact that he was in a weaker condition Sunday Night because of his previous performance.

Hooten Town Hill won on March 27th in 1:12.2 on a Mountaineer fast track.
Hooten Town Hill finished 20 lengths back last night in a race the winner took in 1:13.

If Hooten Town Hill is in the same condition as he was March 27th, he wins tonight. Regardless of who the other horses are. The other horses didn't stare him down and say "Hey Buddy, we are non-winners of 3, know your place and get to the back of the field and finish 5 seconds slow than you did last time."

You are simply confusing yourself and the issue with alot of irrelevant information. You are making the mistake alot of people make by confusing poor condition/form with not liking a surface. HTH has two wins over the Mountaineer surface. He won a 5 1/2 furlong race in 1:07.1, 13 days later ran 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:10. He won a 6 furlong race in 1:12.2, 15 days later ran it in 1:18+.

The times are not a coincidence. The class rise is the coincidence. Here's oen of the horses from the 1st race.


http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/5206/wyd.png



I got 5 more horses from that race if you want to see them. If Will You Dance wins that Nov 16th race, you'll call her next performance a poor one because of the class jump. She didn't win so she didn't jump class. She reacted poorly to the effort and her condition regressed.


http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/9249/mdc.png

Ran a 62 on turf, June 21st, 2009.. a month later a 42. Because of the slop right? You'll always have an excuse.

Ran a 65 on Feb 3rd, 2010.. month later a 30 despite the class drop. Stretching out couldn't handle the distance right? Oops ran 49,49,54 at 6f, 6.5f, and 8.. Destroyed that one. I'm sure you'll find another excuse though.

[Charlie D]

This is not a coincidence and has absolutely nothing to do with class.


Your right and it probably has nothing to do with "bounce" either


Was the tongue tie on or off, was he compromised by race dynamics, did he have his shot of pain killing meds , was he even wanted today.


There are numerous reasons why horses don't run good races back to back

[Sekrah]

Your right and it probably has nothing to do with "bounce" either


Was the tongue tie on or off, was he compromised by race dynamics, did he have his shot of pain killing meds , was he even wanted today.


There are numerous reasons why horses don't run good races back to back

Of course there are others but the vast majority are from the bounce. I've been FAR too successful to turn my back on this handicapping style.

[Charlie D]

The vast majority hve nothing to do with "bounce"

The jockey name on Hooten rings a bell, google it.

[Charlie D]

Is it same Dean Mernagh as this one.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/39708/two-british-jockeys-banned-for-providing-inside-information


The number of jockeys banned or warned off in Britain within the past two years rose to 12 as Dean Mernagh, 28, was suspended for nine months after admitting passing on inside information for reward.

[Robert Goren]

This serves me right. I know better than to argue "bounce theory." It is like arguing religion with Boxcar. Everything is the eye of the beholder. JMO

[Granite]

I don't see any bounces here either. However, that's what makes this game so interesting. If Sekrah were to actually produce one of these examples before a race, and show a horse about to bounce, then my hat would be off to him.
Provided the horse actually does bounce.

[46zilzal]

Each race, no matter if it is a maiden claimer to a grade on stake is the result of the interaction of horses, those in form, on ONE specific circumstance and a single point in their careers. Often the pace pressures of one contest do not repeat ever again.

A race is the result of that day's pace pressures and is mutually exclusive of all others. pure and simple.

Find out how the HORSE handles the pace pressure(s) and you understand how to evaluate it when the next match up confronts him/her. Each race is made of pressures that may or may not ever happen the same way again.

[markgoldie]

The general question of the effects of a class rise has always been one of my interests and I have written about it extensively on this forum.

The poster who proposes that all inferior performances as the class rises are due to bounces or even form-cycle fluctuations is wrong IMO. However, interestingly enough, his opinion would coincide with Beyer. Beyer has never publicly changed his original statement that class has no effect on figs whatsoever, except in an oblique way. He HAS said that when handicapping graded stakes, figs produced in other graded stakes are more significant than those produced in non-graded events. If this is true (and I'm sure it is), there would seem to be little explanation other than the class difference in which the figs were earned.

(As an aside, this is the only remaining issue I have with Beyer involving the theoretical underpinnings of his work. The other issue, which was his early belief that pace had no effect on figs, was later corrected by Beyer himself.)

The question posed by the original poster here was WHY? While the answer is not nearly important as the acceptance of the basic principle, I do have a theory. It involves the internal speed dynamics of races. Another way of putting it might be that all 1:10 clockings for 6f are not created equal. The better the horse, the greater likelihood that he will be able to speed up and slow down during the course of the event as tactical concerns of the jockey dictate. And so an animal who can go 1:10 while loose on the lead and in his preferred stride pattern may be buried in a 1:10 event by horses who out-sprint him early and never allow him to get into a comfort zone. A middle-move horse who can blow by weaker competition when he's in a lower class, may be totally thwarted when he meets stiff resistance when attempting such move. Is this a description of the greater GAMENESS of better-classed animals? Yes and no. Gameness is clearly a genuine phenomenon. However, without physical capability, it means little. And so a very in-form animal may appear to be game, while the same animal when out of form may appear a coward or a quitter.

[Sekrah]

you're all wrong,

[GameTheory]

Now entering the winner's circle...Itch.

Ooohh... cheater... caught.

Sekrah just posted that he wouldn't touch the probable favorite Itch in the PHA R1 with a ten-foot pole because of the impending bounce. Then the horse wins in a stretch duel and *poof* the post is mysteriously gone.

[46zilzal]

Horses have NO idea what level of competition they are facing until that gate opens and then THEIR abilities to confront the projected fractions capable from the pace setters and pressers (not those too far back who are passive to his process) is what is tested TODAY.

Class structure is a man made subjective evaluation system left over from selling race days...

[Tom]

Now that was a bounce~right off the board! :lol:

[Granite]

Now that was a bounce~right off the board! :lol:

Now that is funny!

[Light]

Sekrah missed an important aspect of Itch's last race. The horse was 2nd by 5 in an 8 horse field. You don't second guess those kinds of horses.

[Tom]

Class structure is a man made subjective evaluation system left over from selling race days...

I know Hastings has no jockeys, but don't they still have claimers? Class is NOT man made - classes pretty much define themselves. Overall, horses progress like a MSW-NW!,NW2......better ones can jump past a lever, slower ones drop into claimers. Generally speaking, you can bet a NW2 is better than a NW1 race and a $20k race is better than a $10K race.

[46zilzal]

I know Hastings has no jockeys, but don't they still have claimers? Class is NOT man made - classes pretty much define themselves. Overall, horses progress like a MSW-NW!,NW2......better ones can jump past a lever, slower ones drop into claimers. Generally speaking, you can bet a NW2 is better than a NW1 race and a $20k race is better than a $10K race.
I love talking to those COMPLETELY void of knowledge of the history of the game, don't read condition books nor have hung out in the race office in the morning to really see how races are put together.

GRANDSTANDERS of the world. keep living at arms length from what is going on!

[Market Mover]

The correct answer hasn't been posted yet. It's the bounce.

Here's the scenario:

1. Horse runs big race to win $20,000 Claimer.
2. Trainer moves horse up to $30,000 Claimer 3 or 4 weeks later.
3. Horse stinks up the track in 7th place. He must have been outclassed? No. He bounced.

The above-average effort it took to win $20k claimer took a toll on the horse and he was unable to repeat it 3 weeks later. That he was running against tougher horses doesn't matter. Although there are certaintly plenty of cases where a front-running speed horse who can't rate will be negatively affected by big class moves. Most of the time it's a bounce.

Here's a PP from Mountaineer's 4th race tonight:

http://img63.imageshack.us/img63/3733/hootentownhill.png



The 87 speed fig on Aug 29th in the MC30000 looks solid enough for Hooten Town Hill. But the career top put the horse out of action for nearly 2 months and when he returned he still wasn't right. The trainer actually started dropping him in class. He started rebuilding his form, getting back into shape and about 3 1/2 months after that 87, boom! On Dec 14th he ran a nice 76 to win a Mdn 20k at Mountaineer. I watched the video of that race, out of the 6-hole he was 3 or 4 wide around the turn which makes that 76 look like an even bigger effort. (Here's where the value of ground-loss figures like Thorograph come into hand)

They tried to bring him back in an Allowance race 2 weeks later.. Pfft.. Ran a 64. Gets dropped to a Claiming $20k. 53? Stiff again, Drop him. Claiming $10k? Nope ran a 62. Drop him again to $5k. Boom.. It's 3 months after the last big effort and he runs a 79 to win a Claiming $5k. Alright, we'll leave him in down here, he should do well now the trainer has found this horses class? Wrong.






http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/7471/mountaineer4th.png



It wouldn't have mattered if they moved him up or down, based on this horses pattern and form cycle he was going back into the tank. Yet there were still suckers in the public that bet him down to 8/5 and watched him fail to respond.

Albert Dodge (19% trainer) brings Chobe in 2nd off a layoff to score at 23-1. Chobe had a win and and two 2nds at Claiming 8k in Tampa last year which is significantly tougher than the Claiming $5ks at Mountaineer.

Just one of many examples that can be found where the favorite can be tossed and value searched elsewhere.


But remember not all horses bounce/react the same way. You have to observe the horses patterns/form cycles. Fillie & Mares will succumb to the bounce more than most colts, but there are certaintly unsound colts like the one I just exampled. Horses also tend to bounce less off turf and synthetics.


Some great handicapping analysis here...if you have any more examples of this, from one of the bigger tracks like Kee or Aqu, please post...

[46zilzal]

Horses listed as ALL OUT, particularly females, run sub par races next up.

[Market Mover]

I don't see any bounces here either. However, that's what makes this game so interesting. If Sekrah were to actually produce one of these examples before a race, and show a horse about to bounce, then my hat would be off to him.
Provided the horse actually does bounce.


Best of the race could be this year's Kentucky Derby. If the horse's PP could be posted, and a predicted "bounce" could be analyzed...

[Robert Goren]

Horses have NO idea what level of competition they are facing until that gate opens and then THEIR abilities to confront the projected fractions capable from the pace setters and pressers (not those too far back who are passive to his process) is what is tested TODAY.

Class structure is a man made subjective evaluation system left over from selling race days... so are daily variants, but they work to some degree. I have no problem with pace handicappers other than the accuracy of the fractional race times that they use, especially that of those horses who are not on the lead. If we had more accurate data, it could be of a lot more use. JMO

[Market Mover]

The general question of the effects of a class rise has always been one of my interests and I have written about it extensively on this forum.

The poster who proposes that all inferior performances as the class rises are due to bounces or even form-cycle fluctuations is wrong IMO. However, interestingly enough, his opinion would coincide with Beyer. Beyer has never publicly changed his original statement that class has no effect on figs whatsoever, except in an oblique way. He HAS said that when handicapping graded stakes, figs produced in other graded stakes are more significant than those produced in non-graded events. If this is true (and I'm sure it is), there would seem to be little explanation other than the class difference in which the figs were earned.

(As an aside, this is the only remaining issue I have with Beyer involving the theoretical underpinnings of his work. The other issue, which was his early belief that pace had no effect on figs, was later corrected by Beyer himself.)

The question posed by the original poster here was WHY? While the answer is not nearly important as the acceptance of the basic principle, I do have a theory. It involves the internal speed dynamics of races. Another way of putting it might be that all 1:10 clockings for 6f are not created equal. The better the horse, the greater likelihood that he will be able to speed up and slow down during the course of the event as tactical concerns of the jockey dictate. And so an animal who can go 1:10 while loose on the lead and in his preferred stride pattern may be buried in a 1:10 event by horses who out-sprint him early and never allow him to get into a comfort zone. A middle-move horse who can blow by weaker competition when he's in a lower class, may be totally thwarted when he meets stiff resistance when attempting such move. Is this a description of the greater GAMENESS of better-classed animals? Yes and no. Gameness is clearly a genuine phenomenon. However, without physical capability, it means little. And so a very in-form animal may appear to be game, while the same animal when out of form may appear a coward or a quitter.


Could you post some tangible examples of the scenarios you indicated in the last paragraph?

[Light]

Hooten Town Hill did not bounce after his win for 5K. He "bottomed" out in class.There was nowhere else to put him and he proved he needed weaker and weaker competition. His 5k win probably had more to do with adding blinkers and going w-w than the class drop.

His next start was what I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole. These type of horse's who bottom out in class,win, and make their next start have got to be the poorest bets on the planet. They are usually chalk and rarely repeat.

[Market Mover]

Hooten Town Hill did not bounce after his win for 5K. He "bottomed" out in class.There was nowhere else to put him and he proved he needed weaker and weaker competition. His 5k win probably had more to do with adding blinkers and going w-w than the class drop.

His next start was what I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole. These type of horse's who bottom out in class,win, and make their next start have got to be the poorest bets on the planet. They are usually chalk and rarely repeat.


Maybe it was the "first time DeShawn Parker" angle...

[46zilzal]

Best of the race could be this year's Kentucky Derby. If the horse's PP could be posted, and a predicted "bounce" could be analyzed...
LOTS of Derby colts tell you they cannot handle 10 furlongs on May 1st (Holy Bull Chiefs Crown) by the way they distribute their energy in the final 9 furlong preps.......then others NEVER win past 9, i.e Hard Spun, and others.

[RXB]

I love talking to those COMPLETELY void of knowledge of the history of the game, don't read condition books nor have hung out in the race office in the morning to really see how races are put together.

GRANDSTANDERS of the world. keep living at arms length from what is going on!

Congratulations on attaining a new level of unwarranted egotism.

[46zilzal]

Congratulations on attaining a new level of unwarranted egotism.
Simple truth as I was a grandstander for years until I began WORKING with horse men.

When you observe from arms length there are thousands and thousands of holes in your understanding.

It would be like my learning anatomy by watching at a distance from the cadaver and never touching a patient..

[RXB]

I'll bet there are "grandstanders" who've never spent time around the barns who do better at turning a profit than you do.

While you're out at the barns, ask some of those trainers if a horse's pure running ability is the sole influence in terms of whether it wins races or not.

[RXB]

Now entering the winner's circle...Itch.

Ooohh... cheater... caught.

Sekrah just posted that he wouldn't touch the probable favorite Itch in the PHA R1 with a ten-foot pole because of the impending bounce. Then the horse wins in a stretch duel and *poof* the post is mysteriously gone.

That's one for the PA Hall of Fame.

I think horses "bounce" sometimes off of a peak performance, but it's now become an overused term that frequently misses the point.

[46zilzal]

I'll bet there are "grandstanders" who've never spent time around the barns who do better at turning a profit than you do.

While you're out at the barns, ask some of those trainers if a horse's pure running ability is the sole influence in terms of whether it wins races or not.
Just where do you think I became enlightened to that conclusion?

I worked for a long time under the tutelage of a very patient honest trainer.

[RXB]

I say that because you constantly ridicule people who use the class line as an additional source of information to evaluate the quality of a race, or of a horse's pattern of improvement/condition.

I find it interesting that someone who claims to be a great handicapper, knowledgeable horseman, condition book expert and race historian hasn't noticed that thoroughbreds are entered, or made ineligible for entry, not according to times but rather according to races won (sometimes, races won under specific conditions only), and that the entire game in that regard is based on purses, claiming prices, stakes grades, conditions, etc.

I also notice that you didn't respond to the first sentence of my post. How do you explain that there are some "grandstanders" who make profits at racing who are not connected on the backstretch?

[markgoldie]

Could you post some tangible examples of the scenarios you indicated in the last paragraph?
The last paragraph is speculation and opinion and labeled as such. I doubt there is any scientific way to either prove or disprove my belief. Certainly, anecdotal examples which might purport to "prove" my opinion would be totally meaningless.

As I say, the key question is whether or not class affects performance, and while there are many ways to assess performance, two would seem more viable than others: (1) finish versus odds' performance in a given class and (2) the comparison of the horse's fig to previous efforts.

Although I am not a data-base guy (regrettably), I do have over twenty-years' experience in adjusting figs to class. I am satisfied in this regards that class does affect fig performance with, of course, the higher the class producing (in general) a lower fig. Is this scientific proof? No. It isn't, because even though we are talking about an observation made on many thousands of races, it is still just an observation. It is based on a collection of individual anecdotes. Hence, the opinion is still "anecdotal" in nature.

I would love to see a long-term study done on this question, taking many thousands of examples of class rise vs. fig performance. For want of a better yardstick, the Bris class rating (RR) could be used as the independent variable and the Bris fig (final speed number) as the dependent (resultant) variable. Enough examples would control for potential inaccuracies in the Bris RR and their fig number. It would also control for bounces or form-cycle variations. On the other hand, surface, jockey, and trainer changes might be weeded from the sample, although enough examples might well be expected to control for these variables as well. Anyone out there who has done such a study or is capable and willing to do so??

[46zilzal]

I also notice that you didn't respond to the first sentence of my post. How do you explain that there are some "grandstanders" who make profits at racing who are not connected on the backstretch?

I have met several but they are few and far between. Two of the best were real estate agents who KNEW gambling a lot more than they knew horses...Rare birds as they usually slide into cards.

To DISAGREE is not to ridicule, never was. Once one procures the reasons behind many of the stupid emotionally based irrational truisms from the grandstander crowd, it becomes quite clear that those dogmatic points were constructed in a factual vacuum.

[Robert Goren]

I have race written for almost anything imaginable (including color), but I have yet to see one written for Beyers numbers. Given enough time someone probably will.;)

[46zilzal]

I have race written for almost anything imaginable (including color), but I have yet to see one written for Beyers numbers. Given enough time someone probably will.;)
That would be an interesting yardstick

[RXB]

I have met several but they are few and far between. Two of the best were real estate agents who KNEW gambling a lot more than they knew horses...Rare birds as they usually slide into cards.

To DISAGREE is not to ridicule, never was. Once one procures the reasons behind many of the stupid emotionally based irrational truisms from the grandstander crowd, it becomes quite clear that those dogmatic points were constructed in a factual vacuum.

:lol: "irrational truisms" "dogmatic points" "factual vacuum"

Are you trying to impress with your phraseology? The fact is, you've said zero of substance; nothing to refute what I said regarding race conditions and classes. Because, of course, you can't-- at least, not logically. Which might not stop you from trying. But beware of entering a dreaded "factual vacuum."

[johnhannibalsmith]

To DISAGREE is not to ridicule, never was. Once one procures the reasons behind many of the stupid emotionally based irrational truisms from the grandstander crowd, it becomes quite clear that those dogmatic points were constructed in a factual vacuum.

This pointless drivel does not enhance your argument simply because you turned a seven word answer into a thirty-five word answer full of contrived phrases like "stupid emotionally based irrational truisms". How can a truism be anything but self-evident or overly obvious? Too many pretentious words, not enough logic.

[46zilzal]

This pointless drivel does not enhance your argument simply because you turned a seven word answer into a thirty-five word answer full of contrived phrases like "stupid emotionally based irrational truisms". How can a truism be anything but self-evident or overly obvious? Too many pretentious words, not enough logic.
No matter what venue, the goons from OFF TOPIC cannot wait to strike whenever and wherever they can....

Look at racing from the inside, if you can, as it opens up a whole new world.

[Robert Goren]

Look at racing from the inside, if you can, as it opens up a whole new world. I have and I saw and smelled a lot of horse manure Literally. I shoved enough of that stuff when I was growing up on the farm. I think I will stick to grandstand in my old age. Thank you very much.;)

[johnhannibalsmith]

No matter what venue, the goons from OFF TOPIC cannot wait to strike whenever and wherever they can....

Look at racing from the inside, if you can, as it opens up a whole new world.

#1 - I participate in all of the "venues" and since you do also, striking against posts like the several recent ones authored by you are far too tempting and easy.

#2 - I guarantee you I have held MANY more racing licenses than you have, so I'm pretty sure I can look at racing from the inside. Instead, I choose to be objective as opposed to being a condescending blowhard that likes to pontificate about all of the "truisms" gleaned by all of my self-indulgent claims of expertise.

[Tom]

Sheeeeeet, 46, it's only a danged hoss race! :lol:

[thaskalos]

Simple truth as I was a grandstander for years until I began WORKING with horse men.

When you observe from arms length there are thousands and thousands of holes in your understanding.

It would be like my learning anatomy by watching at a distance from the cadaver and never touching a patient.. Since you have worked with horse men after being an outsider for years, how far-fetched is my suggestion that, perhaps, these subpar performances at the higher levels are a result of trainer intent?

It makes sense that a horse would run an inferior race, in a class higher than it is used to. At some point during the race, a greater amount of pace pressure is likely to be placed on the horse, thus adversely effecting his finish position and corresponding speed figure.

But shouldn't a front runner be able to display the same early speed in a $15,000 claiming race as he repeatedly does in a $10,000 claiming race? If the seemingly outclassed horse is the "main" speed in today's higher race, shouldn't he at least have command of the race in the early going?

From what I have seen, the "outclassed" horses, even though they seem to have the early speed advantage in today's "better" race, often fail to take an outright lead at all. Even when they take the outright lead, they set a slower pace than they are capable of, which allows the "classier" stalkers to be uncomfortably close behind. At the top of the turn, our front runner is noticeably struggling, slower pace notwithstanding. Why?? No REAL pressure has been placed on him to this point!! He has been allowed to run a slower pace than he usually displays in the past. He should have plenty left to finish strong to the wire!! If it's not trainer intent, then what could it be?? Could the horse possibly "sense" that "classier" horses are chasing him this time?

[46zilzal]

Since you have worked with horse men after being an outsider for years, how far-fetched is my suggestion that, perhaps, these subpar performances at the higher levels are a result of trainer intent?


Look, many, or should I say most, of the trainers below the top group of five are not wealthy in the least and to suggest that THEY, the ones who have NOTHING to do when the animal is running, are trying to cloud the form is more Hollywood based hooey.

They often place a horse in a race to test an equipment change, to see how the animal reacts to slower fractions in a route, giving an out of shape animal a much needed race etc etc, but INTENT? You have been watching too many Sam Spade type movies.....

The horse simply runs to its condition, form and ability that is it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Now entering the winner's circle...Itch.

Ooohh... cheater... caught.

Sekrah just posted that he wouldn't touch the probable favorite Itch in the PHA R1 with a ten-foot pole because of the impending bounce. Then the horse wins in a stretch duel and *poof* the post is mysteriously gone.Actually, I can bring the post back...but it looks like he replaced it with a different message...have a look... :lol:

[GameTheory]

Actually, I can bring the post back...but it looks like he replaced it with a different message...have a look... :lol:The original said "I'm not scared" [of taking the challenge of identifying a bounce before the race] along with the PPs of Itch, who not only did not bounce, but held on gamely to win.

[Robert Goren]

If you try to out guess a trainer, you will go broke quickly rather than slowly. There is no such thing as an average horse. Some can fire on their first start after a layoff others need to be raced into shape. Still others have only a race or two in them before they start to sore up. Then there all stuff that the better can't know like whether not the horse was sick between starts. Then there is drugs. I am sure that we all use form, time, pace and class in our handicapping, but we put different values on them. That is why they allow betting on outcome of a race. JMO

[DeanT]

A couple good posts by Mark G here, imo.

As for class risers with the best figs here is a snapshot from 2010. What strikes me is the favorite win percentage of 37.7% and the resulting ROI. For the entire database of 2010, the chalk wins at about 39% for top fig with an 0.88 ROI. The crowd seems to handicap class risers with top figs pretty well, considering they are facing tougher stock. For this limited data run, there appears to be no magic "bounce" if the horse is well meant and well bet.

Adding some credence to bounce is the fact that horses who have worked in this situation have a higher win percentage and ROI than those who do not. This might mean that a horse who runs a big fig and is tweaked and jammed back in soon, is infirm, whereas a horse who works is probably not entered if he/she works bad and is unsound. Sound horses win races.

Interesting topic that I have always been somewhat interested, being a fan of learning more about horse behavior in stressful situations, such as a class rise often provides.


SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE RANKF12 = 1
AND CLSHIFT = 1


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 3487.50 3578.20 3514.80
Bet -3914.00 -3914.00 -3914.00
Gain -426.50 -335.80 -399.20

Wins 432 787 1040
Plays 1957 1957 1957
PCT .2207 .4021 .5314

ROI 0.8910 0.9142 0.8980
Avg Mut 8.07 4.55 3.38


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -176.10 1186.00 0.8515 224 593 .3777 1.7112
2 -107.90 814.00 0.8674 95 407 .2334 1.0574
3 -85.50 578.00 0.8521 47 289 .1626 0.7367
4 1.80 450.00 1.0040 31 225 .1378 0.6241
5 -43.00 386.00 0.8886 20 193 .1036 0.4694
6 -57.00 230.00 0.7522 7 115 .0609 0.2757
7 14.00 128.00 1.1094 5 64 .0781 0.3539
8 -1.20 60.00 0.9800 1 30 .0333 0.1510
9 64.40 46.00 2.4000 2 23 .0870 0.3939
10 -20.00 20.00 0.0000 0 10 .0000 0.0000
11 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000
12 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000



Ending BankRoll: $683.90
Starting BankRoll: $10,000.00
High BankRoll: $12,951.95
Low BankRoll: $662.90
Bet Percentage: 0.0100
Max Bet: 500.00

[jonnielu]

Each race, no matter if it is a maiden claimer to a grade on stake is the result of the interaction of horses, those in form, on ONE specific circumstance and a single point in their careers. Often the pace pressures of one contest do not repeat ever again.

A race is the result of that day's pace pressures and is mutually exclusive of all others. pure and simple.

Find out how the HORSE handles the pace pressure(s) and you understand how to evaluate it when the next match up confronts him/her. Each race is made of pressures that may or may not ever happen the same way again.

I'm afraid that it is just too simple to be grasped. Each result is a product of that gathering. There just isn't anything to add and subtract there.

jdl

[Charlie D]

I know Hastings has no jockeys, but don't they still have claimers? Class is NOT man made - classes pretty much define themselves. Overall, horses progress like a MSW-NW!,NW2......better ones can jump past a lever, slower ones drop into claimers. Generally speaking, you can bet a NW2 is better than a NW1 race and a $20k race is better than a $10K race.



Is this speed determining where horse fit in the Class structure Tom???

[upset]

The question posed by the original poster here was WHY? While the answer is not nearly important as the acceptance of the basic principle, I do have a theory. It involves the internal speed dynamics of races. Another way of putting it might be that all 1:10 clockings for 6f are not created equal. The better the horse, the greater likelihood that he will be able to speed up and slow down during the course of the event as tactical concerns of the jockey dictate. And so an animal who can go 1:10 while loose on the lead and in his preferred stride pattern may be buried in a 1:10 event by horses who out-sprint him early and never allow him to get into a comfort zone. A middle-move horse who can blow by weaker competition when he's in a lower class, may be totally thwarted when he meets stiff resistance when attempting such move. Is this a description of the greater GAMENESS of better-classed animals? Yes and no. Gameness is clearly a genuine phenomenon. However, without physical capability, it means little. And so a very in-form animal may appear to be game, while the same animal when out of form may appear a coward or a quitter. I vote for this answer :ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

DeanT

good stuff. pretty much what I find too.

I think the human connection, i.e. placing the horse in the right race speaks volumes when it comes to horses moving up in class.........enough said.

[upset]

That whole bounce theory has some merit but not as much as some delude themselves to believe. You can tell how much a race took out of the horse by how long it takes to cool out and by how much water it drinks(sometimes). A good horseman knows when to race back. It gets tough when the race you're looking for isn't in the book where you you want it to be. Once you have the horse fit its less likely to be sore after a race. First couple after a layoff or first couple of the season, yeah your horse is gonna be sore for 3-4 days maybe a week. Whenever I hear those "Ragozen Bounce Lovers" i think of Conquistador Cielo winning the Met in track record time than Woody brings him back 6 days later to win 12 furlong Belmont. I guess those Mr.Prospector colts don't bounce

[ranchwest]

That whole bounce theory has some merit but not as much as some delude themselves to believe. You can tell how much a race took out of the horse by how long it takes to cool out and by how much water it drinks(sometimes). A good horseman knows when to race back. It gets tough when the race you're looking for isn't in the book where you you want it to be. Once you have the horse fit its less likely to be sore after a race. First couple after a layoff or first couple of the season, yeah your horse is gonna be sore for 3-4 days maybe a week. Whenever I hear those "Ragozen Bounce Lovers" i think of Conquistador Cielo winning the Met in track record time than Woody brings him back 6 days later to win 12 furlong Belmont. I guess those Mr.Prospector colts don't bounce

Sorry for going OT, but I thought it was interesting that Jimmy the Greek guaranteed CC would win the Belmont.

[Tom]

Is this speed determining where horse fit in the Class structure Tom???

That is part of it, but not the whole story.

[Cratos]

I am somewhat ashamed to admit, that in almost 30 years of serious handicapping and betting, I have been unable to answer the following question, to my complete satisfaction.

Why do the majority of race horses fail to duplicate their speed and pace figures when they move up in class? I sometimes see horses rising in class, who figure to just dominate their field! They enjoy every possible advantage a horse could have over its competition. Superior early speed AND higher speed figures. And yet, the vast majority of the time, not only do they lose badly...they cannot even take the early lead! Some other, seemingly slower horse hooks them into a speed duel, and runs them into the ground.

What is it that makes even a small rise in class have such a negative impact on a horse's performance? What is it that prevents the cheaper horse from taking the lead and running the same early fractions that it does when it faces slightly inferior competition?

Is it a case of the higher class horses having the ability to intimidate the cheaper one "with a glance", like noted handicapping author Mark Cramer indicated in his book FORM CYCLES, or does it have more to do with trainer intent?

Is it that the trainer, thinking that his horse is outclassed today, and, having found a more suitable race for the horse in the near future, has told the jockey not to push the horse to the limits of its ability, and to save its best effort for the better race "next time"?

Could it be that class exists most prominently...in the trainer's head??

Not a bad question and the answer is as I stated in another post: “Class is a function of speed/pace, weight, distance, and style. As a horse moves up in class, the inherent ability of those factors from the competition gets better.

[shouldacoulda]

I recommend you read the handicappers condition book by James Quinn. Part of the phenomenon with the horse from mountaineer is the jockey. Deshawn Parker is the top jockey at mountaineer. He could get a mount on a goat and probably still get bet down to even money. For a while it seemed every horse Ramone Dominguez was on at aqueduct was starting below even money.

It has been my observation that winners in the last race tend to bounce more so at the lower class levels. How hard the horse was ridden has a lot to do with it also. How many times do you see a jockey whip the living daylights out of a horse when it's obvious he won't/can't win. It's like they think they are stepping on a gas pedal. That's where replays come in very handy. Did he win on a hand ride or was he beaten into winning? Was he backed off on to finish 3rd or 4th or did he fail despite the whipping? You could have this argument forever over which is more important class or speed. My answer is it depends. It depends on the competition and race shape. There is no clear cut answer and usually isn't when it comes to horse racing.