could esky get swallowed by the herd in the derby

[bisket]

randy moss makes an excellent point about esky's early pace numbers in all his preps
http://mossblog.typepad.com/randy-moss-blog/

moss says:
"Ever noticed that no matter how fast horses run, they always have something left to prove?

So it is with Eskendereya.

He has run by far the fastest of these 3-year-olds, although Lookin At Lucky is no slouch. A mile and a quarter should be a piece of cake. Professionalism appears to be no problem. Todd Pletcher’s 0-for-24 in the Kentucky Derby is meaningless, because he’ll have multiple Derby trophies before you know it.

No, the biggest question Eskendereya must answer is how he will react to what might be a trickier pace scenario in the Derby........."



esky's preps remind me of curlin's preps leading to the derby in 2007. each race had moderate pace that curlin dominated. when it came to derby day those fractions left him in rush hour traffic, and all he was accustomed to was a nice easy gallop on a country road. it was his undoing in the derby. this in my opinion is exactly what makes esky a bad bet derby day. especially being favored in the race. he may beat me, but if he does i'll just tip my cap to him.

[sandpit]

As talented as Curlin was, he was very lightly raced and faced a quality group, so maybe Esky has a little edge there. That being said, the rough n tumble he is likely to face in the Derby could easily upset the apple cart...many a handicapper likes to choose a horse that has overcome adversity in his preps.

That is unless the talent is superior, like Seattle Slew, who dominated his preps, then got the adversity in the Derby.

[Robert Fischer]

Curlin had to deal with a hesitant Albarado(who dubiously turned down the "sedgefield pocket"), Esky will be well placed early by a Velazquez who much prefers forward position, the only danger with placement is an ultra hot pace comprised of the big contenders and one that would heat up sooner than all would prefer.

[Robert Fischer]

...many a handicapper likes to choose a horse that has overcome adversity in his preps.

:ThmbUp: we happen to be on the same page here.
I've spoken with some players intent on "taking on" Eskendereya, - and their first words are about "what adversity has he faced??"

[WinterTriangle]

"what adversity has he faced??"

Agree, but the adversity may come in the Derby. :)

His last Q numbers are very good, etc. and may get a post position that is very complimentary

[SmartyLane]

esky's preps remind me of curlin's preps leading to the derby in 2007. each race had moderate pace that curlin dominated. when it came to derby day those fractions left him in rush hour traffic, and all he was accustomed to was a nice easy gallop on a country road. it was his undoing in the derby. this in my opinion is exactly what makes esky a bad bet derby day. especially being favored in the race. he may beat me, but if he does i'll just tip my cap to him.

For some reason I just can't get excited about this horse. Maybe it is the ease at which he wins, at moderate fractions. That in no way is saying this horse can't win the Derby or taking credit from him AT ALL. But the paragraph you wrote above makes sense to me and I tend to agree.

[Hanover1]

For some reason I just can't get excited about this horse. Maybe it is the ease at which he wins, at moderate fractions. That in no way is saying this horse can't win the Derby or taking credit from him AT ALL. But the paragraph you wrote above makes sense to me and I tend to agree.
This "tricky" pace scenario is nonsense....They either go a tad more, or they go a tad less, nothing tricky there.....Getting settled by the first turn seems to be the biggest issue year after year. Cannot be considered settled when hung 7 wide......or boxed by 9 horses, with 7 in front of you. Its about a clean trip, with room to move when asked. Not tricky at all.....

[bisket]

the derby is probably the toughest race to trip handicap. in my opinion post position for esky is a big thing. who runs what early pace inside of him and outside of him? i'd like to see esky 2-3 wide in 4th or 5th on the first turn. any further back he's more of a question mark imhop. he needs a trip similar to barbaro's a few years back.

[GaryG]

His fractions in those two big wins would have him many lengths off a pace that seems sure to be balls to the wall. Same with Sidneys Candy,,,,where will he be early? Lookin At Lucky can rate within striking distance of strong fractions and still finish. This could be another scramble with a longshot winner a la Giacomo. Would not eliminate Endorsement who will be a big longshot.

[SmartyLane]

His fractions in those two big wins would have him many lengths off a pace that seems sure to be balls to the wall. Same with Sidneys Candy,,,,where will he be early? Lookin At Lucky can rate within striking distance of strong fractions and still finish. This could be another scramble with a longshot winner a la Giacomo. Would not eliminate Endorsement who will be a big longshot.

That is my thoughts pretty much. There is going to be some fast fractions early you can bet on that. Line of David, Paddy, Rule, Sidneys are all front runners. They have never met others that want the lead like they do. What are going to do when there is 4-6 horses vying for the lead. A few may rate and a few may get rank and refuse to rate. Which ones that will be is the question????? What a derby we are going to have this year!!!!

I sure hope Sidney can rate, I really think he is something special. If he can get a breather going down the backside he is going to be really tough to beat.

Can't WAIT!!!

[Stevie Belmont]

There is no doubt it's the best field Eskendereya will have been in. His Wood memorial win was a public workout.

Maybe it was too easy? Sometimes a horse can get more out of a tougher race.

So he will have to deal with a much stiffer pace for the first time and higher caliber horses.

I don't want to compare him to Bellamy Road, but there may be a similarity or 2 there as far as conditioning.

Bellamy Road was put into a tough spot after winning the Wood Memorial in a hand ride over a speed favoring strip that day.

On Derby day he was sucked into that brutal pace and faltered.

[bisket]

His fractions in those two big wins would have him many lengths off a pace that seems sure to be balls to the wall. Same with Sidneys Candy,,,,where will he be early? Lookin At Lucky can rate within striking distance of strong fractions and still finish. This could be another scramble with a longshot winner a la Giacomo. Would not eliminate Endorsement who will be a big longshot.
see this is the scenerio i'm playing with also. now if this is the scenario your going to have sid and eksy not even in eyesight of the front. how are they going to react to being in a position like this? dirt flying in their face etc. horses win when they are comfortable. the only horses that overcome this are champions. so if esky or sid win they probably are champs in the making, but is this where i wager my money? 9 times out of 10 a horse put into this situation will fold up and wait til next time. thats how i'll probably wager my money. now lucky has been in this situation more than once in a race, and has overcome it. there is some history to base this hypothesis on so i'll wager money on this!!

[bisket]

closers: endorsement and ice box :ThmbUp:

[Market Mover]

As talented as Curlin was, he was very lightly raced and faced a quality group, so maybe Esky has a little edge there. That being said, the rough n tumble he is likely to face in the Derby could easily upset the apple cart...many a handicapper likes to choose a horse that has overcome adversity in his preps.

That is unless the talent is superior, like Seattle Slew, who dominated his preps, then got the adversity in the Derby.


But Sandpit, my friend, Esky is NO Seattle Slew...

[Market Mover]

If Esky draws an inside post, take him off all your exotics tickets...

[Market Mover]

That is my thoughts pretty much. There is going to be some fast fractions early you can bet on that. Line of David, Paddy, Rule, Sidneys are all front runners. They have never met others that want the lead like they do. What are going to do when there is 4-6 horses vying for the lead. A few may rate and a few may get rank and refuse to rate. Which ones that will be is the question????? What a derby we are going to have this year!!!!

I sure hope Sidney can rate, I really think he is something special. If he can get a breather going down the backside he is going to be really tough to beat.

Can't WAIT!!!


Paddy can rate. He does not need the lead. Kent D. tried to go with Odysseus early down the backstretch and blow the race apart a la Ashland style with Elusive Jewel. But Paddy can rate, and he can effectively rate inside horses too (see last turf win). He is dangerous in this spot. Tactical speed is always dangerous.

[Market Mover]

see this is the scenerio i'm playing with also. now if this is the scenario your going to have sid and eksy not even in eyesight of the front. how are they going to react to being in a position like this? dirt flying in their face etc. horses win when they are comfortable. the only horses that overcome this are champions. so if esky or sid win they probably are champs in the making, but is this where i wager my money? 9 times out of 10 a horse put into this situation will fold up and wait til next time. thats how i'll probably wager my money. now lucky has been in this situation more than once in a race, and has overcome it. there is some history to base this hypothesis on so i'll wager money on this!!


Lucky has a distinct advantage being battle tested. We know he likes dirt. We know he is not one-dimensional. And we know his trainer knows how to get a horse to peak for TC performances. In fact, I am glad he got in so much trouble in the SA Derby. Baffert was using this G1 as a workout. They already had enough money to get in. And they did not want the horse to peak. Lucky's biggest test will be the Belmont, if he gets that far. Belong to Me on the bottom side won't help. And topside might have distance limitations too.

[Market Mover]

closers: endorsement and ice box :ThmbUp:

Deep deep closers rarely win the Derby. In fact, look at Dan Illman's blog notes on drf. Last 20 years there's only a few that have been further than a few lengths off the lead come middle of stretch...

This is a tactical speed race, and winner will hit the lead and hang on. Not fly from the clouds and just get up.

[JPinMaryland]

Nobody defines closers by their position in the middle of the stretch. Well maybe Dan Ilman does; I have no idea why people constantly point this out (that nearly all winners are w/in one length in mid stretch or whatever). This has little to do with who is a closer.

The definition that I see that makes the most sense is a closer is >4 lengths out at at least one of the calls, the 3/4 or the mile call. Usually at both and sometimes they move up before the turn so it makes it hard. But anyhow I count at least 10 closers in the last 20 years who won this race:

Street Sense; Giacomo, Grindstone, Fu Peg, Monarchos, Real Quiet; Sea Hero; Lil E Tee; Strike the Gold, Unbridled (I think he is 6 back at 3/4 call not sure if this was typical position for him).

Charismatic is another horse that might fit that def'n although he was moving quickly on the backstretch and I think his career running style was more of a stalker and most people dont think of him as a closer. So I didnt include him.

Many of these surveys that say no one has won from >1 length back in mid stretch fail to include Alysheba who had sort of stumbled in between calls andn I believe was >1 back at some pt in the stretch. I think this might be true for Street Sense but in any event you had better be coming fast in the stretch if you are to win this.

Also it's fair to note that lots of horse that might otherwise be stalkers in a normal field get pushed back further in the crowded 19 or 20 horse field that is the Ky derby. I did not make the list based on career running styles but maybe Fu Peg or Real Quiet or some other might have been in a different position.

But anyhow, I dont what the hell people are talking about when they say "Deep closer." If someone wants to post a definition for that that might be interesting. I dont think so called deep closers win many but then again how many Silky Sullivans are there?

[dccprez]

Does anyone agree that post position will have a BIG impact on this year's Derby - moreso than in most recent runnings?

Said another way; in the past, say, 4-6 years (maybe more), there was either a real standout runner that, barring any catastrophic event, was most likely to win (Big Brown, Barbaro, even to some extent Street Sense) REAGRDLESS of their post position...
...OR there was absolutely NO standout so any result was plausible regardless of which runner got which post...

This year we have a few genuine "standouts" - I'd say Lookin, Esk, Sid - and a few that might be 'thisclose' - say, Endorsement, Dublin (?), Noble (?)...

So if one of the "standouts" gets hung out to dry in 17-20 and another gets a "garden spot" in 6-9, doesn't this sway opinions if it comes down to JUST those "standouts"? Whereas if there were only Esk and no Lol or Sid (or any of the "thisclose-ers") it wouldn't matter all that much where Esk drew - he'd be much the best anyway so...he'd likely win.

By extension, if all of the "SO's" get hung out to dry then one of the "TC'er's" suddenly jumps up the chart...

It's hard to explain - and, No, it isn't as simple as "well, PP matters in every KD". It just seems more important this year as opposed to many recent runnings...

I realize that I'm not "saying" this very well - I'm finding it difficult to express this intelligently in writing...but I'm hoping that some of you get what I'm trying to say and I welcome all feedback...

[JPinMaryland]

But if you like you say, this year there is no one standout, then doesnt that make this years derby more like those years where there is no standout. Not sure I understand the bit about no standouts at all. If that is the case wouldnt PP more than ever?

But you say "any result is plausible" in that case. Maybe but you are talking about somethign else now. PP could still be important but it's hard to tell how much because there is so much "random noise" associated with a herd of anmials with no standouts. So to say there is no standout, does not mean that pp doesnt matter, it just makes it harder to use in handicapping I guess.

SO I guess I dont see it. PP is always going to matter and sure more so when there is no standout. But that would be true of any track factor: weather, bias, crowd noise, more of it would matter when there is no standout because that is the nature of being a standout horse..

[dccprez]

Ugh. I knew it wouldn't translate well...

What I'm saying (I THINK);

In years without a "SO" then yes, you're absolutely correct, PP would make factor in picking the "best" of a mediocre bunch...

But this year, the race (seems) to come down to Esk, Lol and Sid (just for sake of this argument) and there is very little separating them on paper. So given those three choices, the MOST likely three choices in this race, which ever of the three gets the garden spot in the gate seems to be the best choice.

There's no "Big Brown" scenario where one runner really seems to tower over the rest - to the extent that PP really had no impact; BB was going to win regardless of where he started from...

But with the "big three" as the choices, PP looks to play a very significant role in determinng which of those guys will win.

Basically, I'm "throwing out" the other 17 contestants (metaphorically) and saying that W-P-S comes down to those three - and that the difference between Win vs. Place or Show will most likely come down to PP...

Arrrghhhh....brain hurts....

[bisket]

jp i usually figure horses that are stalkers in just about any other race as either early speed or look warily at their chances in the derby.

[joanied]

Deep deep closers rarely win the Derby. In fact, look at Dan Illman's blog notes on drf. Last 20 years there's only a few that have been further than a few lengths off the lead come middle of stretch...

This is a tactical speed race, and winner will hit the lead and hang on. Not fly from the clouds and just get up.

Mine that Bird...he flew outta the clouds:)

[WinterTriangle]

As of this point, I doubt very much Eskendereya will win the KY Derby.

Unless I'm seeing misinformation. Look him up on equibase under horse search, look over the info, and tell me if anything jumps out at you.......

There's an actual answer here, let's see what you see. It should be real obvious very quickly, at least, something looked very *odd* to me.

[SmartyLane]

As of this point, I doubt very much Eskendereya will win the KY Derby.

Unless I'm seeing misinformation. Look him up on equibase under horse search, look over the info, and tell me if anything jumps out at you.......

There's an actual answer here, let's see what you see. It should be real obvious very quickly, at least, something looked very *odd* to me.


He hasn't ran since the Fountain of Youth. Would he not have a workout already or something?? I am not very knowledgeable in the timing of these such things, especially coming up to the Kentucky Derby......is that what you were referring to WT??

[eastie]

he just won the Wood :blush:

[WinterTriangle]

he just won the Wood :blush:

I just wrote out a long reply and it got eaten.

Yes, I know, 4/03 he won the wood, but there are other horses who ran derby preps that weekend who have worked. Just wanna see a work in next few days is all.


Right now I like: Esky, Ice Box and Jackson Bend, LAL, with Sidney and Super Saver for my speedies.

Looking at some others like Paddy, Endorsement, American Lion, Mission Impaz and Dean's.

[joanied]

I looked him up, Winter T... and he hasn't worked since the Wood...which I also find strange. He sure didn't excert himself in the Wood...it was an easy win and Johhny V never asked him, so he had plenty left...it's nearly 2 weeks since that race, and that makes me wonder what is going on? Surely Pletcher would have worked him, even a slow breeze, early this week. I assume he's been out galloping...guess they feel that's enough for him until early next week...

[boogazie]

slewis posted the following in another thread regarding the wood memorial:

" I'm also convinced from my observations that Eskendereya has issues, maybe much more serious issues then bad feet, but I won't elaborate and have no proof other than what I visually see.

But I will say this...Pletcher may get this horse to the gate on Derby day and maybe even the winners circle....But if what I "think" is an issue actually IS an issue, it will be quite a "training" job to compete in all triple crown races. "

If you're reading this slewis, can you elaborate now please :)

[OTM Al]

With the way things stand right now, there is going to be a lot of speed in this race and I expect it will be ratched up another notch if Eightyfiveandafifty wins the Derby Trial and gets in. I think Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky have enough experience (and good enough jocks) that they should be able to sit off of what looks to be a wild duel on the front end and get a good first jump when the front waive tires. They are the top 2 on most lists and I see no reason why they shouldn't be. The question for me if I play into the vertical exotics is, can one of the frontrunners hold on enough to hit the board or will the deep closers clunk up into those slots. Of course too much info is still missing, but at least this part of it seems as clear as possible right now to me.

[WinterTriangle]

If you're reading this slewis, can you elaborate now please :)

I don't understand the request. he made observations, as did I when I started that part of the thread in this topic.

Not sure what else is needed?


Watch the post parade, look at photos, watch races, workouts, and make observations. Decide what you think about the workout spacing, and all the stuff in the post parade photos.

"Visually, it sure looked like the race wouldn't have taken anything out of him" Pletcher said after the Wood.

[bisket]

one thing to keep in mind is since esky will be going longer pletcher could be galloping him strongly instead of working him. thats the only thing i could think of for him not working since the race if he's not having problems. although esky having issues is a legitimate question mark right now.

[boogazie]

You made an observation about Eskendereya's lack of training.

He made an observation that there was an "issue" based on how Eskendereya looked in the post parade of the Wood Memorial but that he wouldn't discuss it because he did not have proof.

Well it seems that now we have some sort of proof and that the two are related and I was simply wondering if he would shared his full thoughts now that it looks like what he saw was correct.

ls the horse injured? Does he have a soundness issue?

I can analyze races but I do not know a lot about horse anatomy so I would not be able to pick out what he saw in person just by looking at some pictures of the post parade.

[WinterTriangle]

how Eskendereya looked in the post parade


Well I'll help things along and post photo of post parade.

Looks pretty good to me. However, conspiracy theorists will say he has front wraps (but so did all of trainers stakes horses that day, based on reports that some horses were getting burnt.) Some will say no big deal, others will say he put wraps on all the horses so Eskie's wouldn't stand out. Other visuals of note, shaved legs, up to knees. Some will say oh oh, injections or ultrasound, others will say a sale might be taking place and that was part of pre sale vet examination, people wanna know what they're buying. Others say the horse was in FL why would he need his legs shaved all the way up to knees since it's hot there and they don't get big coats.

So, you see where I'm going with this, I hope. ;)

People are doing this with LAL blinkers on blinkers off, and maybe Baffert doesn't know what he's doing .(LOL yeah, sure :rolleyes: ) because his blinkers on experiment failed

The *only* thing I thought of when I read trainer's quote that it looked like wood didn't take much out of him, but then why such a big *rest* and workout not until 15 days+? Well, could just be the horse was tired which they didn't think at first, or they are just trying to take it easy on him to conserve his energy for the big one. :)

Okay, I think I've covered all the conspiracy theory bases and the opposite here. This gets into wierd territory and I guess it's just fun to gossip about horses. LOL

http://i103.photobucket.com/albums/m147/Xctrygirl/DSC_4989.jpg

[WinterTriangle]

Oh, the other conspiracy is that legs are clipped for linaments, and/or to put on the wraps tight, or to discover leg nicks after racing. Same reason I clip my dogs. However, it was also pointed out that if it was for leg wraps, Munnings and the others weren't shaved.

Eh. I believe with the intense media scrutiny on the favorite for the Derby, this would be all over the place if there was any concern. I guess we'll find out soon ..... I doubt this trainer is going to send an unsound horse to the Ky Derby .... can you imagine what the fallout would be?

[Dahoss9698]

I doubt this trainer is going to send an unsound horse to the Ky Derby .... can you imagine what the fallout would be?

Sort of like the fallout if a trainer sent a horse into the BC Classic that was "noticeably limping" during his workouts?

Who was suggesting that, I can't seem to remember?

[bisket]

winter you need to delete some of your pms

what we need is a clocker's report on morning excercises at the training center esky is at. although from what some posters have said the reports from there aren't actually reliable.

[joanied]

I'll say this about Esky's shaved legs...you do not shave legs to apply a liniment...you do need to shave them if you are injecting a joint medication...injecting joints requires great care to avoid any infection...it could very well be for a pre sale inspection...bottom line is, IMO, it's very strange.
I think once they get Esky to Churchill, we'll know more...until then, we are speculating, fun yeah...but still just all speculation.

[bisket]

it struck me as strange that they returned to palm meadows after the wood. i thought why ship all the way back to fla for a few weeks and then go to kentucky a few weeks later.

[joanied]

it struck me as strange that they returned to palm meadows after the wood. i thought why ship all the way back to fla for a few weeks and then go to kentucky a few weeks later.

My thoughts, exactly.

[WinterTriangle]

Sort of like the fallout if a trainer sent a horse into the BC Classic that was "noticeably limping" during his workouts?

First let me say that I'm flattered by your persistence and loyalty, remembering and quoting my every word......from 2009 no less.:D




BTW, this was how the winner looked in morning warmups before the BCC:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/11/06/article-0-071A558B000005DC-881_468x350.jpg


Too bad some didn't notice how QR wasn't liking the track---maybe could have avoided the traumatic gate incident(fallout, as you mention). Instead, the horse took matters into his own hands. :)

What looked like limping on a small laptop screen was probabaly more about how he was putting his feet down. Outcome: he would've got the biggest a$$ whoopin of his career from Zen and Gio anyway. elusive quals have about a 10% success rate on poly.

[Dahoss9698]

So he wasn't "noticeably limping" now? My how a few months change everything. A simple "yeah, I had no idea what I was talking about at the time" would have sufficed. Instead I got a picture of Zenyatta and more speculation (wasn't liking the track). It is pretty amazing though that from your small laptop screen you were able to see he wasn't liking the track. But his trainer missed it. With an eye like that you might have missed your calling. :rolleyes:

Oh and Santa Anita isn't poly. It's pro ride. But I'm sure you knew that. :)

[Charlie D]

Outcome: he would've got the biggest a$$ whoopin of his career from Zen and Gio anyway.elusive quals have about a 10% success rate on poly.


2008 Classic winner was Sired By Elusive Quality. So it may be an error to suggest a horse would get " the biggest ass whooping of his career"

[Tom]

Esky worked 5 in 1.02:25 today.


Other visuals of note, shaved legs, up to knees.


I think he knows Rachael will be at Churchill on Derby day and he is just
gussing up a bit!;)

[PaceAdvantage]

it struck me as strange that they returned to palm meadows after the wood. i thought why ship all the way back to fla for a few weeks and then go to kentucky a few weeks later.When does Pletcher usually move back up north to NY? His base is in Florida in the winter. He doesn't stay in NY for the winter.

So...unless Pletcher is down there longer this year than usual, nothing is all that unusual with Esky going back down to Florida after the Wood Memorial. If I owned Esky, I'd be damned sure the horse was wherever Pletcher was every single working minute.

[WinterTriangle]

2008 Classic winner was Sired By Elusive Quality. So it may be an error to suggest a horse would get " the biggest ass whooping of his career"

No error. I believed QR would get the biggest a$$ whoopin of his career running against Zen and I wagered that way before he scratched. The elusive qual % was just in addition. Raven's Pass wasn't exactly the favorite in 2008, was he? I had Go Between. If I had to do it over again, I'd still have Go Between. ;)


As for surfaces, naming them isn't important. Handicapping them successfully is. :D Where I live we just call it poly, aws, synth.

Many people have wanted Beyer to come up with 3 distinct ratings for the 3 racing surfaces. But I've never seen anything suggesting he should split them up into 5 surfaces? If it's an important enough distinction, by name and otherwise, Dahoss may want to broach that subject with him.

[Charlie D]

Raven's Pass wasn't exactly the favorite in 2008, was he?



No and thats because a decent percentage of the public misrinterpreted the information as they do on a regular basis.

[joanied]

Esky worked 5 in 1.02:25 today.





I think he knows Rachael will be at Churchill on Derby day and he is just
gussing up a bit!;)

Nice work, then...now he'll ship in to Churchill... and just for Rachel...shave and a haircut :jump: whoo-woo!!

[Dahoss9698]

No and thats because a decent percentage of the public misrinterpreted the information as they do on a regular basis.

Charlie, don't waste your time. That one knows it all and is never wrong.

Some people go with the appraoch that if you fling enough crap at the wall, some will stick. Should be interesting to see how Eskendereya runs May 1st. I have my doubts about him winning, but he's been far and away the most impressive 3 year old so far.

[joanied]

When does Pletcher usually move back up north to NY? His base is in Florida in the winter. He doesn't stay in NY for the winter.

So...unless Pletcher is down there longer this year than usual, nothing is all that unusual with Esky going back down to Florida after the Wood Memorial. If I owned Esky, I'd be damned sure the horse was wherever Pletcher was every single working minute.

Pace, I think some of us just thought that it was strange to ship Esky twice, when they could have gone directly to Churchill from NY. Also, Pletcher has incredible assistants...he would not have to be near to Esky every minute...the colt's owner knows this...at least, I would hope so.
Ah, sometimes is tough to figure how trainers do things ;)

[joanied]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/breaking-news/56514

They gotta sell the horse...maybe the shaved legs did have to do with this...pre sale exam.

[PaceAdvantage]

Also, Pletcher has incredible assistants...he would not have to be near to Esky every minute...the colt's owner knows thisUmmmm...I"m not so sure about that.

If I owned the favorite for the Ky. Derby, you best be damned sure my horse is wherever the BOSS MAN is at any given time....what other higher business priority could Pletcher have at this time?

[bisket]

pletcher doesn't usually stay in florida this late in the season. although this year he does have a number of horses that will probably make the field so maybe he thought it was better to keep them all at the training facility so he could monitor them himself. most years the big money stables abandon ship on florida after the fla derby. i just thought it was unusual to ship a horse twice within a short amount of time before a big race. this practice is usually frowned upon. although i think many of these questions that have been posed about esky has been answered by the fact it has come out that zayat is selling him to pay his creditors. myself i don't usually take much of the whispering thats done about horses before a big race into consideration when handicapping because who knows whats really going on. i just try to stick to what i know about the horse and base my decisions on that.

[joanied]

Ummmm...I"m not so sure about that.

If I owned the favorite for the Ky. Derby, you best be damned sure my horse is wherever the BOSS MAN is at any given time....what other higher business priority could Pletcher have at this time?

No doubt Pletcher trusts his assistants 110%...but in truth, Pace...I'd be sleeping in Esky's stall :D

[BobD]

Hate to break up all this discussion of the 2008 and 2009 classics but we are not going to make any money there.

When I define a KD pace meltdown I use the 2000, 2001 and 2005 editions as my recent benchmarks. In each of these Derbies the half went in sub :46, the 3/4 in sub 1:10 and the superfecta contained at one and more likely two or more runners from the second half of the field at the six furlong mark.

From all the references on this board and others about early speed, is there a consenus that we will have those type of fractions in 2010?

[WinterTriangle]

Esky does jump off the page. IF the race was at GP or AQ. At CDX, he's not a lock. On pedigree, he's definitely not a lock.

And, I will be playing as such.

I usually do good on the undercard, so playing the favorite to win in the KY Derby isn't at the top of my list of things to do, esp. if I think they are beatable.

[jognlope]

Insight Post means gotta gun out of the gait. I'm just scared to bet on it at all, but keep thinking of that couple in NY who got the $500,000 superfecta when Giacama won...

[NTamm1215]

Esky does jump off the page. IF the race was at GP or AQ. At CDX, he's not a lock. On pedigree, he's definitely not a lock.

And, I will be playing as such.

I usually do good on the undercard, so playing the favorite to win in the KY Derby isn't at the top of my list of things to do, esp. if I think they are beatable.

I've heard many reasons for betting against Eskendereya but you are definitely the first to say his pedigree might not be perfect for 10 furlongs. I can't wait to hear about his Conduit Mare Classification.

NT

[joanied]

I've heard many reasons for betting against Eskendereya but you are definitely the first to say his pedigree might not be perfect for 10 furlongs. I can't wait to hear about his Conduit Mare Classification.

NT

Winter Triangle is very very good at the pedigree stuff...I would not dismiss what she says.
:)

[Cat Thief]

If Esk is that good as alot say and as he appearw to be post 20 will not matter. Big Brownie was that good and he didn't mind post 20.

[Dahoss9698]

Winter Triangle is very very good at the pedigree stuff...I would not dismiss what she says.
:)

Excellent :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[NTamm1215]

Winter Triangle is very very good at the pedigree stuff...I would not dismiss what she says.
:)

I appreciate the tip but with regards to saying Eskendereya's pedigree isn't geared towards classic distances, dismissing her opinion is exactly what I'm going to do.

NT

[toussaud]

I appreciate the tip but with regards to saying Eskendereya's pedigree isn't geared towards classic distances, dismissing her opinion is exactly what I'm going to do.

NT
it isn't.

most giants causeways peak at between 8 and 9F with the occupational G1 win against week company (heatseeker in big cap for instance). hell GC really wasn't a 10F horse. his best distance was about a mile.


horses outrun pedigress all the time, but that is not a pedigree that screams distance horse to me.

also his his grade 1 winning half brother was a bonified sprinter.

[gm10]

I use some late speed criterion which usually reduces the full field to a set of about 4-5 horses that normally holds the winner in it (not last year though). This year the contenders are:

Eskendereya
Ice Box
Stately Victor

Lookin At Lucky and Devil May Care are borderline.

I personally like Rule as well.

[WinterTriangle]

I've heard many reasons for betting against Eskendereya but you are definitely the first to say his pedigree might not be perfect for 10 furlongs.
NT

Well, I did not say that. :D

My post says that based on his pedigree he's not a LOCK.:)


That means there are other horses I think can win this.

Actually, the "10F thing" may not be entirely important....when you think about it, whatever 4-5 horses are *there* across the track right at 9F will probably make up the superfecta. This year, I don't see anyone coming out of nowhere once they are all at 9F....that's just the scenario I have for the race in my mind.

I think Esky can get the distance, the question is, can he get it before everyone else.

I'm not that good at pedigree, it's just that I do give it more weight than a lot of people on the board, I think.

[joanied]

Well, I did not say that. :D

My post says that based on his pedigree he's not a LOCK.:)


That means there are other horses I think can win this.

Actually, the "10F thing" may not be entirely important....when you think about it, whatever 4-5 horses are *there* across the track right at 9F will probably make up the superfecta. This year, I don't see anyone coming out of nowhere once they are all at 9F....that's just the scenario I have for the race in my mind.

I think Esky can get the distance, the question is, can he get it before everyone else.

I'm not that good at pedigree, it's just that I do give it more weight than a lot of people on the board, I think.

You are being modest, WT...your not an expert...being that with bloodlines takes a long time, incredible research and all that...but you know your stuff and study the pedigree maybe more than most here do...and IMO, pedigree should play a big part in handicapping. In the case of Esky, and I've studied up on him too...I think you are right...he can get the 1 1/4 miles...but IMO, things would have to set up just about perfect for him to pull it off...

[bisket]

anyone discounting pedigree for horses going 1 1/4 mile for the first time is ignoring some important information. visually watching the races with pedigree in mind is an important aspect of handicapping the derby. the eyes have to back up what the pedigree says though.

[NTamm1215]

anyone discounting pedigree for horses going 1 1/4 mile for the first time is ignoring some important information. visually watching the races with pedigree in mind is an important aspect of handicapping the derby. the eyes have to back up what the pedigree says though.

Anyone putting any significant amount of weight into pedigree when dealing with horses who have experience is ignoring reason. I'll argue with anyone right now about whether Eskendereya can handle 10 furlongs and anyone who believes he can't because of his pedigree hasn't watched him run.

NT

[Dahoss9698]

Anyone putting any significant amount of weight into pedigree when dealing with horses who have experience is ignoring reason. I'll argue with anyone right now about whether Eskendereya can handle 10 furlongs and anyone who believes he can't because of his pedigree hasn't watched him run.

NT

Totally agree. Pedigree is important with firsters, turf, horses trying two turns for the first time. After we have all seen them run a few times, I think it's clear who will or won't "get" 10 furlongs.

[sally]

Hate to break up all this discussion of the 2008 and 2009 classics but we are not going to make any money there.

When I define a KD pace meltdown I use the 2000, 2001 and 2005 editions as my recent benchmarks. In each of these Derbies the half went in sub :46, the 3/4 in sub 1:10 and the superfecta contained at one and more likely two or more runners from the second half of the field at the six furlong mark.

From all the references on this board and others about early speed, is there a consenus that we will have those type of fractions in 2010?


So what about this pace question Bob has asked...will we have those fractions this year?

[Dahoss9698]

So what about this pace question Bob has asked...will we have those fractions this year?

I think we'll know more after this weekend. If Eightfiveinafifty wins on Saturday and is wheeled back in the Derby, yes. Even if he doesn't, it would appear there are a number of horses who will want to be on the lead.

I think we'll get a better idea when the field is set.

[WinterTriangle]

Anyone putting any significant amount of weight into pedigree when dealing with horses who have experience is ignoring reason. I'll argue with anyone right now about whether Eskendereya can handle 10 furlongs NT

NT, I still don't see where anyone said he couldn't get 10F. (not me).


As for "dealing with horses who have experience" ----which ones have experience going 10F (in a 20-horse field)---on dirt? :) What *experience* can we use to evaluate horses who may move up on sandy loam/clay mix from other dirt tracks..... or synth?

The KY Derby is about projection. Pedigree is just another tool in the box.

It was useful to me, for instance, when evaluating Odysseus for 10F, that it would be utterly atypical for his breeding. Yet many handicappers thought, and still think, he could have won the derby. Other than Devil May Care, no Malibu Moon progeny, inbred to Mr. Prospector the way he was, has won a major stakes beyond 8.5 furlongs. (DMC's inbreeding to Mr. P and sire line is totally different than Odysseus.) I take something like this as a *strong indicator*, thus Odysseus didn't make my top derby list.

Was reading tonight about how Zarkava was a direct product of the Vuillier dosage system used by the Aga Khan’s breeding program.


GL to everyone, whatever method they use. :ThmbUp:

[RXB]

I think Eskendereya's pedigree-- by the cheap speed standards of the 21st century, at least-- is fine for 10f.

It's not the distance of the Derby, but rather the fact that Eskendereya has never seen a legit pace that I believe will be his probable undoing.

[RXB]

hell GC really wasn't a 10F horse. his best distance was about a mile.


Giant's Causeway ran four times at the 10f distance. Three Group 1 wins and a close second in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

[WinterTriangle]

Giant's Causeway ran four times at the 10f distance.

and then we have Nobles Causeway, Cowboy Cal, Hold Me Back's accomplishments in the derby. ;)


people want to believe their horse will run the way they normally run..... except that won't happen. :)

Just to remind everybody what the race ends up looking like, read the chart from last year (or any year): bumped, hit gate, squeezed (that word about 5 times), steadied, lost footing, stumbled, bumped, bumped, brushed, tight, wide, drifted, etc.:)

[joanied]

NT, I still don't see where anyone said he couldn't get 10F. (not me).


As for "dealing with horses who have experience" ----which ones have experience going 10F (in a 20-horse field)---on dirt? :) What *experience* can we use to evaluate horses who may move up on sandy loam/clay mix from other dirt tracks..... or synth?

The KY Derby is about projection. Pedigree is just another tool in the box.

It was useful to me, for instance, when evaluating Odysseus for 10F, that it would be utterly atypical for his breeding. Yet many handicappers thought, and still think, he could have won the derby. Other than Devil May Care, no Malibu Moon progeny, inbred to Mr. Prospector the way he was, has won a major stakes beyond 8.5 furlongs. (DMC's inbreeding to Mr. P and sire line is totally different than Odysseus.) I take something like this as a *strong indicator*, thus Odysseus didn't make my top derby list.

Was reading tonight about how Zarkava was a direct product of the Vuillier dosage system used by the Aga Khan’s breeding program.


GL to everyone, whatever method they use. :ThmbUp:

Right...you never said he could not get the 10f...just that he wasn't a lock at the distance...
I also second the notion that in dealing with horses that have not gone that distance before...pedigree has to play a part in one's wagering.
Anything can happen...and usually does...but I can't see how anyone can deny pedigree isn't a factor.
And, again...I said this before, I beleive Esky cab get the 10f...but the race would have to set up pretty well for him...and chances of that happeneing aren't all that good...he'd need a clean trip and the proper pace up front.
Just my opinion.

[Stevie Belmont]

Distance is absolutley no concern at all with Eskendereya—will he get to the wire first is the question? He has all the tools physically.

He will get a class test in the Kentucky Derby. He was able to put away Jackson Bend twice—he will see a little better in the Derby.

He will be the odds on choice when they go off. If you are happy with that—go for it.

[joanied]

I'm glad Esky will go off the odds on favorite...I cannot pick him to win the Derby...so his odds are fine with me:)

[RXB]

and then we have Nobles Causeway, Cowboy Cal, Hold Me Back's accomplishments in the derby. ;)


Not sure what your point is. I never said anything about Giant's Causeway progeny doing well in the Derby. I merely pointed out that, contrary to what had been posted earlier, Giant's Causeway himself excelled at 10f.

[RXB]

He will be the odds on choice when they go off. If you are happy with that—go for it.

He won't be odds-on.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

He won't be odds-on.

Agreed... he will go off as the favorite but will not be less than even money.

[Stevie Belmont]

I think he will be around 2/1 - 5/2

[GaryG]

There is no other race in which so many normally sharp players grasp at straws. Assuming a decent post draw and no further negative developments I would be happy to get 5-2 on him. Even though he is by the dreaded Giant's Causeway.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

There is no other race in which so many normally sharp players grasp at straws. Assuming a decent post draw and no further negative developments I would be happy to get 5-2 on him. Even though he is by the dreaded Giant's Causeway.

I am with you...It will be near impossible for me to dismiss him at 5-2 for sure.

[miesque]

I have to admit that I am a little surprised there is so much negative commentary on Eskendereya going 10 furlongs (especially considering there are other Derby contenders far more suspect from a pedigree perspective), but I guess different people analyze pedigree in different manners. As far as I am concerned, if Eskendereya gets beat on May 1, its not going to be because he lacked the breeding to go that far but other reasons like racing luck, potential undisclosed "issues", one or more horses that are just plain better on that day and/or not successfully dealing with Derby adversity.

[Cat Thief]

Perhaps Esk will get a class test but that Jackson Bend is no slouch and probably better than 3/4 of the derby field ... he trys. I expect to see him in the money. I know he is small and not bred for distance, but he is a trier

[46zilzal]

There is no reason this one would HAVE to be up front.

[bisket]

i don't agree that you can make a decisive decision on whether esky can win at 1 1/4 mile against the best horses by his preps. he's never been pushed early in a race, and still had someone threatening him at the end. jackson bend looks like a horse that would be more comfortable with a mile distance. lets see what happens when he has a legitimate pace in front of him, and also other legitimate horses coming on late. he may very well prove to be a champion, but anyone jumping to the conclusion that he's a legitimate classic distance winner off his preps is dreaming. he has proved to be a nice horse this far.