Arkansas Derby

[Bruddah]

Super Saver and Calvin BoRail $250 win & place :ThmbUp:

[picojim]

NORTHERN GIANT wins by 5

[JustRalph]

Congrats to John Court! Nice to seem him win a big one...........

[GaryG]

Dublin hung like a.....well, like a Lukas horse. Great ride by JC but I don't see any of these or those exiting the Blue Grass going anywhere.

[Watcher]

cl0rH75Rnbo

[joanied]

I was disappointed with Noble's promise...but I am very happy for Jon Court...indeed, he deserves this one...gutsy colt to hang on like he did after those fractions...
me thinks that throat surgery they did for Dublin hasn't helped him much...I think what this colt lacks is courage, and IMO, he'll get swallowed up in the Derby.

I have to agree with GaryG here...none of the frist 3 or 4 finishers in either the AR derby or the Bluegrass will be ITM on Derby Day. Super Saver could help set things up for Esky, though.

[JustRalph]

That was a gutsy win. After those fractions I thought he was done at the top of the stretch.......I actually think he got headed and dug in.........Valiant effort!

[Bruddah]

Don't discount Super Saver in the Ky Derby. This horse is still improving and hasn't hit his best race yet. I thought he would win today and he just missed. However, his run out after the race impressed me. I didn't win but, I still fattened my on line account today.

[Marshall Bennett]

Good for Jon Court . A super nice guy and a good jockey . He's in .

[Joey D]

Good for Jon Court . A super nice guy and a good jockey . He's in .

I agree!! Good for Jon, he deserves it.

[tribecaagent]

Dublin hung like a.....well, like a Lukas horse. Great ride by JC but I don't see any of these or those exiting the Blue Grass going anywhere.

You said it GaryG.

I've seen enough of Dublin. I coulda swore Noble's Promise was entered in this race but perhaps it was just me.

Too bad the historic Bluegrass is now run on polytrack. It's just not an accurate barometer of talent.

[bisket]

i didn't think either dublin or noble's promise would finish in the top two. i just thought they were distance questions. they were moving backwards in every race at 1 1/16 miles. i thought super saver would be there, but i didn't have line of david figured at all. i went with pulsion in my exacta with super, and addded uh oh bango and northern giant for the tri. uh oh didn't dissapoint, giantt and pulsion stunk the track up.

[tribecaagent]

Where did uh oh bango finish?

[SmartyLane]

I called Winter Triangle before the race and said to take a look at the 8. I liked him and then once at the track I thought how could it really be??? So I only put 10 to show. Talked about being pissed off after that race.

Reason I liked him was his last race as a front runner at a route he was still running late.

Still mad at myself right now. Did bad for the weekend and my chance to make it up.

[Sekrah]

There must have been an absurd speed bias on that track today.. I thought for sure the late closers would gobble both of them horses up after those fractions.

[tribecaagent]

I sure didn't notice a bias and even if there was one, that still doesn't explain Dublin not running down those other two with 140 yards to the wire.

[bisket]

there wasn't a bias on that track today. closers won just as many as frontrunners. i played it today. line of david ran an above average race plain and simple.

[SmartyLane]

Not much of a bias I would say, except for the stakes races. Decelerator wired the field, and even the 1-3/4 mile race was wired.

[bisket]

that only means the best horse in those races were the speed. you grade the races the way you choose, but i didn't see a bias.

[rrbauer]

I need the money more than Jon Court does!

Wager Details
EXACTA
Combo Ticket Wagered Returned Bonus Profit/Loss

ALL-8 16696026974953 8.00 0.00 0.16 (7.84)
(1,2,3,4,5,9)-8 41337120877245 6.00 0.00 0.12 (5.88)
(1,2,3,9)-8 78805889264567 4.00 0.00 0.08 (3.92)
[8]-[ALL] 03609588955646 16.00 126.20 0.32 110.52


Wager Details
WIN
Combo Ticket Wagered Returned Bonus Profit/Loss

8 27673848950212 10.00 183.00 0.20 173.20

[Charlie D]

2009 Arkansas

22.65 - 46.19 - 71.15 - 96.75 - 109.1


Old Fashioned led and just caught by Papa Clem with Summer Bird back in third.

2010 Arkansas

22.65 - 46.26 - 70.75 - 96.52 - 109.37




Interesting i think.

[JustRalph]

I need the money more than Jon Court does!

Wager Details
EXACTA
Combo Ticket Wagered Returned Bonus Profit/Loss

ALL-8 16696026974953 8.00 0.00 0.16 (7.84)
(1,2,3,4,5,9)-8 41337120877245 6.00 0.00 0.12 (5.88)
(1,2,3,9)-8 78805889264567 4.00 0.00 0.08 (3.92)
[8]-[ALL] 03609588955646 16.00 126.20 0.32 110.52


Wager Details
WIN
Combo Ticket Wagered Returned Bonus Profit/Loss

8 27673848950212 10.00 183.00 0.20 173.20

You trying to say you had it? Good for you.........nice "get out" race

[RockHardTen1985]

I sure didn't notice a bias and even if there was one, that still doesn't explain Dublin not running down those other two with 140 yards to the wire.


I did not like Dublins trip at all. The jock never attempts to get to the rail and cover up, he had that wide press trip that IMO never wins.

[tribecaagent]

C'mon man. Dublin sucked. We both know it.

[WinterTriangle]

I called Winter Triangle before the race and said to take a look at the 8. I liked him and then once at the track I thought how could it really be??? So I only put 10 to show. Talked about being pissed off after that race.


Yeah, the phone rings in my hotel this morning as I'm trying to handicap the Oaklawn card. SmartyLane says: "Line of David."

:ThmbUp:


Funny, looking at it now, the trifecta turned out to be the 3 horses who can get that distance based on the broodmare sire side.....and his broodmare sire had the most DIRT wins of any horse on the track. Northern Giant was the only other one that I could see.

Complete pedigree play.

Track stats would have helped things along

I thought for sure the late closers would gobble both of them horses up.

then you haven't looked at the track stats at OP for the 1-1/8 mile races this meet.

4 wins. Inside posts and 8+. 2 wired it, 1 was a presser, 1 midpack. I saw no closers win 1-1/8 mile races at OP this meet.

[PhantomOnTour]

Dublin is one paced. No excuse today; he had dead aim for a 1/4m and never looked like he wanted it. Down the backstretch Court had a real tight hold of the winner, and he just looked dangerous at that point. I was correct about Noble's Promise, but was also convinced that this was a Super Saver-Dublin box all the way.

Lukas will probably send Dublin to the Derby anyway. Super Saver? Who knows...these results today have got to kill some horses on the fringes of the earnings cutoff as we now have two horses that leapfrogged a whole bunch and are now in the big race.

[JustRalph]

Line of David was a form play in my book. Obviously on the upswing. The workouts and the last few races showed he was ready to peak, at least to me anyway. I also like Sadler shipping the horse to run on dirt in Arkansas after running on Turf. I think he knew the horse was ready for a big one........why not go for the big bucks?

After watching the replay a couple times....that was one hell of a performance

[WinterTriangle]

[QUOTE=JustRalph]Line of David was a form play in my book. Obviously on the upswing. The workouts and the last few races showed he was ready to peak, at least to me anyway. [\QUOTE]

well ralph, this is one of those times when I feel I could really benefit from a tutor......when I specifically don't *see* something. As I said, from a pedigree standpoint, it's now real *obvious* in retrospect. I still didn't see it in the PPs.

I know some people get annoyed when posters handicap a race *after the race*, but I don't. To me, that is such a learning opportunity! Because if I don't know what I missed seeing, then I'm likely to miss it next time, too.

And, I imagine a lot of people did not have the 8. :D I know I'm not the *only* one. :D

Between you and SmartyLane, and others who had it, I should be able to understand what I missed.

[Edward DeVere]

For the Dublin naysayers: Toss him from your Derby superfectas with great fear and trepidation. If he gets a clean trip, he WILL finish in the top five, and could finish as high as first.

I'm just sayin'. . . .

[JustRalph]

I won't bore everybody else with my ramblings.......... on how I saw the race. This is just my kind of play though...... don't get me wrong. I sit back and wait on these kinds of plays for days sometime. Just a little flyer here and there pays off sometimes. I didn't have a whole lot invested....less than fifty bucks......on a play like this. But I got out for the losing week I was having. The exacta paid well , but I was hoping for more :lol:

I will send you a PM with how I saw the race, more importantly why I thought this horse was ready.......



[QUOTE=JustRalph]Line of David was a form play in my book. Obviously on the upswing. The workouts and the last few races showed he was ready to peak, at least to me anyway. [\QUOTE]

well ralph, this is one of those times when I feel I could really benefit from a tutor......when I specifically don't *see* something. As I said, from a pedigree standpoint, it's now real *obvious* in retrospect. I still didn't see it in the PPs.

I know some people get annoyed when posters handicap a race *after the race*, but I don't. To me, that is such a learning opportunity! Because if I don't know what I missed seeing, then I'm likely to miss it next time, too.

And, I imagine a lot of people did not have the 8. :D I know I'm not the *only* one. :D

Between you and SmartyLane, and others who had it, I should be able to understand what I missed.

[Sekrah]

Line of David shows what a fraud surface synthetics is.. It completely masked this horses speed, Sadler gets him on the turf and he starts showing it off and developing into a nice horse. Then explodes first time out on the dirt. It's why many of us can't give a synth-freak like Zenyatta her due until she regularly beats the best on dirt.

[point given]

I was disappointed with Noble's promise...but I am very happy for Jon Court...indeed, he deserves this one...gutsy colt to hang on like he did after those fractions...
me thinks that throat surgery they did for Dublin hasn't helped him much...I think what this colt lacks is courage, and IMO, he'll get swallowed up in the Derby.

I have to agree with GaryG here...none of the frist 3 or 4 finishers in either the AR derby or the Bluegrass will be ITM on Derby Day. Super Saver could help set things up for Esky, though.

Me too, he got banged around out of the gate and then trailed the field. I'd toss the race and bet him back,not in the derby though.

[JustRalph]

Line of David shows what a fraud surface synthetics is.. It completely masked this horses speed, Sadler gets him on the turf and he starts showing it off and developing into a nice horse. Then explodes first time out on the dirt. It's why many of us can't give a synth-freak like Zenyatta her due until she regularly beats the best on dirt.


I don't know if that was it. I think he was a fast improving horse. He showed marked improvement every race except one and that was the one that Gomez rode him. He came back 8 days later and ran like a champ with a much improved effort with a different rider. I just think he peaked and hit a new top. It's that time of year. Sadler put him in the right spot at the right time. Don't forget his Daddy ran 2nd in the Derby in much the same fashion. 2nd behind Smarty Jones by about 3-4 lengths if memory serves me right.

[joanied]

Me too, he got banged around out of the gate and then trailed the field. I'd toss the race and bet him back,not in the derby though.

Yep...maybe the Preakness...in the derby you can expect he'd get banged around again...probably half the field will get banged around coming out of the gate:D

[joanied]

I don't know if that was it. I think he was a fast improving horse. He showed marked improvement every race except one and that was the one that Gomez rode him. He came back 8 days later and ran like a champ with a much improved effort with a different rider. I just think he peaked and hit a new top. It's that time of year. Sadler put him in the right spot at the right time. Don't forget his Daddy ran 2nd in the Derby in much the same fashion. 2nd behind Smarty Jones by about 3-4 lengths if memory serves me right.

Just checked out his pedigree...interesting mix...and when was the last time I saw Prince John as close up as this one...4th gen. back on the bottom...lots of stamina there, along with Slew...not bad:ThmbUp:
I also like Sadler...smart, savy and honest...I am beginning to like this colt to at least run very well in the Derby.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/line+of+david

[bisket]

[QUOTE=JustRalph]Line of David was a form play in my book. Obviously on the upswing. The workouts and the last few races showed he was ready to peak, at least to me anyway. [\QUOTE]

well ralph, this is one of those times when I feel I could really benefit from a tutor......when I specifically don't *see* something. As I said, from a pedigree standpoint, it's now real *obvious* in retrospect. I still didn't see it in the PPs.

I know some people get annoyed when posters handicap a race *after the race*, but I don't. To me, that is such a learning opportunity! Because if I don't know what I missed seeing, then I'm likely to miss it next time, too.

And, I imagine a lot of people did not have the 8. :D I know I'm not the *only* one. :D

Between you and SmartyLane, and others who had it, I should be able to understand what I missed.
i think there many players saying after the race, "why didn't i see that". you first have to have the opinion that many of the odds on horses were showing in the pps or their pedigree, that they weren't up to the distance. that got you 1/2 way there. i was searching for a good angle on this race, and just ignored david :bang: . hey thats why he was 15-1 or whatever, because it was hard to see. a hearty congratulations to any that had the winner. david and super were good plays in retrospect. i did see super, but went in the wrong direction after that.

[Trotman]

Outside of the 4,5,10 ,11 races and forget the 12 race there was an early bias to the track and in the end I have the day at -23 variant. For Dublin to move on the turn into a slow pace and not get there he's not one of mine for the Derby. The race was a +6 pace rating so I think Line of David wire to wire shows he has something but anything in behind we're the frauds.

[bisket]

just found out noble promise exited the the race with scratches and bruises, and i slight lung infection. he's questionable for the derby.

[Bettowin]

[QUOTE=WinterTriangle]
i think there many players saying after the race, "why didn't i see that". you first have to have the opinion that many of the odds on horses were showing in the pps or their pedigree, that they weren't up to the distance. that got you 1/2 way there. i was searching for a good angle on this race, and just ignored david :bang: . hey thats why he was 15-1 or whatever, because it was hard to see. a hearty congratulations to any that had the winner. david and super were good plays in retrospect. i did see super, but went in the wrong direction after that.


Very nice to meet everyone from PA who were at Oaklawn this weekend. I took a look at the race and thought Noble's Promise would have trouble with the extra distacne over the Rebel but with the bad start he never even got a sniff. I expected Dublin to improve but didn't think he was good enough to win so that left me with the invaders. I played trifectas with Super Saver and Line of David on top. When I got to the rail to take some photos I was really impressed with how Line of David looked. At 16-1 he had great value so I ran back in and took a $20WPS show ticket back to the rail:)

Overall I bet quite a bit on the race and ended up with the $1 tri twice and the WPS on LOD:)

The sucky part is my super ticket read 1,3/1,3,8/1,2,3,8,/ 1,2,3,4,5,8,9. Figured if I was wrong about Noble's Promise I would hopefully cash the super.

[hazzardm]

Attaboy. Now get that photo album up promptly!

[WinterTriangle]

Where did uh oh bango finish?

4th. And, if Nobles doesn't run the KY Derby, he's next on the graded earnings list.

Uh Oh Bango is a live longshot, IMHO.


:bang: I'm sitting here looking at an email from SmartyLane to me on April 7th-----picking Stately Victor/Paddy Prado for the Bluegrass.

If I had followed that, plus his Line of David pick for the AR Derby, I'd have some $$ today. :lol: I'm very stubborn I guess.

[Shelby]

Was anyone by the paddock watching the works on either morning? I was the short girl in black cowboy boots lol. I looked for you, bettowin, inside where the tv's and chairs are....were you there?

[SmartyLane]

4th. And, if Nobles doesn't run the KY Derby, he's next on the graded earnings list.

Uh Oh Bango is a live longshot, IMHO.


:bang: I'm sitting here looking at an email from SmartyLane to me on April 7th-----picking Stately Victor/Paddy Prado for the Bluegrass.

If I had followed that, plus his Line of David pick for the AR Derby, I'd have some $$ today. :lol: I'm very stubborn I guess.


And if I had only listened to you on Friday, "don't second guess yourself" I would have much more today as well!!!

:) :jump:

[Bettowin]

Was anyone by the paddock watching the works on either morning? I was the short girl in black cowboy boots lol. I looked for you, bettowin, inside where the tv's and chairs are....were you there?

Unfortunately I didn't make it to the morning workouts either morning:( Saturday we made our base in the Sports Tavern which was jam packed but I wandered around toward the end of the day. Friday we started in our seats on the Terrace level and halfway through the card spent our time in the infield and on the rail for Zenyatta. If I knew you were going to be there I would have made sure to find you.

[bisket]

4th. And, if Nobles doesn't run the KY Derby, he's next on the graded earnings list.

Uh Oh Bango is a live longshot, IMHO.


:bang: I'm sitting here looking at an email from SmartyLane to me on April 7th-----picking Stately Victor/Paddy Prado for the Bluegrass.

If I had followed that, plus his Line of David pick for the AR Derby, I'd have some $$ today. :lol: I'm very stubborn I guess.
i had bango in my exacta and tri. he'll get a good look derby day as maybe a horse for a piece. excellant handicapping bettowin :ThmbUp:
the only race i hit was the 6th. i had 20 to win on king snake. a pure class play. he looked terrible in stakes but every time he was in maiden and allowance company he won. i just missed the exacta in this race by a head. hey smarty closed to nip vigilante law for place. it was a 5$ ex ticket. boy that woulda made my month :bang: it sounds like everyone had a good time, and i long to see zenyatta in person myself.

[Shelby]

Unfortunately I didn't make it to the morning workouts either morning:( Saturday we made our base in the Sports Tavern which was jam packed but I wandered around toward the end of the day. Friday we started in our seats on the Terrace level and halfway through the card spent our time in the infield and on the rail for Zenyatta. If I knew you were going to be there I would have made sure to find you.

I was late telling you guys--and then I posted on the wrong thread :lol: I look different than I did when we met--about 45 lbs lighter and long hair--so I don't think you would have recognized the new, smaller version of myself :lol:

I was in the paddock area until around 8:30 both mornings and then I was in the general admission line--almost first in line both days . It was a long wait, but worth it.

Gah, I still get goosebumps when I think that we got to see Zenyatta in person. She truly is one of a kind. Such a personality in that horse! Total kudos to the owners for letting her come.

Now, if I can only get lucky and get some good seats for next year--seems like if you're not local when they go on sale, then you're outta luck.

Oh, and one other thing--did you guys see Hey Smarty? If I could have, I would have claimed that horse....someone else snatched him up. When we move to Hot Springs and I'm a horse owner, I'll get us a box so that we don't have to worry about tickets :cool:

[Stevie Belmont]

Dublin will make his 4th start of his current form cycle in the Kentucky Derby. I think of the top three finishers in the Arkansas Derby, he has the best chance to move forward off this race.

Certainly not totally out the question he can get in the top 5 with a solid effort.

[WinterTriangle]

move forward off this race.

That's what they said after his Southwest and his Rebel.

He certainly has a fantastic apearance, everyone always ooohs and ahhhs when they see him in the paddock.

I don't think he has the courage of his dad. He didn't win the Champagne, the Iroquois, the Southwest, the Rebel or the Ark Derby. He did win the 7F Three Chimneys.

Uh Oh Bango would beat him at over a mile, but he's off the trail now.:(

did you guys see Hey Smarty? If I could have, I would have claimed that horse....someone else snatched him up.

Yes! We were all saying that as Brad Cox was claiming him.

[Bettowin]

I was late telling you guys--and then I posted on the wrong thread :lol: I look different than I did when we met--about 45 lbs lighter and long hair--so I don't think you would have recognized the new, smaller version of myself :lol:

I was in the paddock area until around 8:30 both mornings and then I was in the general admission line--almost first in line both days . It was a long wait, but worth it.

Gah, I still get goosebumps when I think that we got to see Zenyatta in person. She truly is one of a kind. Such a personality in that horse! Total kudos to the owners for letting her come.

Now, if I can only get lucky and get some good seats for next year--seems like if you're not local when they go on sale, then you're outta luck.

Oh, and one other thing--did you guys see Hey Smarty? If I could have, I would have claimed that horse....someone else snatched him up. When we move to Hot Springs and I'm a horse owner, I'll get us a box so that we don't have to worry about tickets :cool:

Darn, I had extra terrace level seats both days. A long way to go up and down to the ground level but very good views and short lines for betting.

[Thomas Roulston]

Noble's Promise was a huge disappointment - as were Make Music For Me and Interactif in the Blue Grass.

Now I really don't know what to do in the Derby.

[Shelby]

Darn, I had extra terrace level seats both days. A long way to go up and down to the ground level but very good views and short lines for betting.

Did you really???

Did you call in November to get them?

[Bettowin]

Did you really???

Did you call in November to get them?

January.

[NTamm1215]

Uh Oh Bango would beat him at over a mile, but he's off the trail now.:(



Despite Dublin beating him rather easily twice in a row?

NT

[WinterTriangle]

Despite Dublin beating him rather easily twice in a row?

NT

Yes. Dublin didn't beat him at 1-1/4. :)

Lots of reasons I said that, conduit mare classification, how they ran the last Q and last 3/8, ability to get 10-12F (Dublin comes in about 15th there) etc.