NY Stabbing.

[Suff]

BIG STAB in race 1

Race 1

#11 Dr. Manfred. HUGE-1

Notice his ligetime high in last was 59 on the grass.... Now here's the angle (s)

DRF says he has a 60 high. He does'nt. DRf says he has run twice on grass...he has'nt. He has run once on turf. His last effort. he exits the same race as the 2-1 FAV. Matter of fact I could easily make a case that it was a Pretty Good effort

But heres the other Kick. Here's the running line from one source(NYRA CHARTS)

6 Sir Manfred
(Espinoza, Jose L. ) 118 L B 6 ..1 -5-1- 5-Hd -8-Hd -9-2 1/2 -9-11 1/2 73.75

But if you look at DRF's Rnning line... It looks nothing like this one. This shows him on or near the lead....But DRF shows he never got within 4 lengths. I got curious,,,and Here I go..

Mask, cap, scapel......Surgery time.

I watched the race a bunch. Sure enough he did have the lead as you might expect going to dirt to turf....But he almost seemed startled that he went out first. He was Fighting espanoza and took a BIG bump in the first turn. Was in a pretty good spot rating the pace setters and appeared to me...to really like the surface and wanted to run.

The thing that makes me get a lil more enthused is the fact that he ran ODD race....a GREEN race. He broke with the leaders,,,ran with the Pace for 4 furlongs,,,Dropped back 15 lengths and then closed again in the stretch to lose by 10. Well Beatan at 73-1

This is where his POOR record works in my Favor, He's run 15 times,,,he should'nt have a bounce back off that 59 like many first turfers going 2nd time. Matter of fact...Its his third race of his FORM CYCLE and should run his best here. 3rd race of cycle can be a BLIND angle... Meaning,,,yes you have to look at current form and the field....But many times a Horses TOP efforts are'nt conspicous..so I will occasionally just bet the ANGLE and discard current form and field. And I may just do that here.

But still... I see enough angles with a TINY bit of meat on the bone to help oil my wallet open for a horse like this.

If you have the PP's. Look at the 5 Horse 99Mack. He ran the EXACT SAME race that Sir Manfred ran. almost stride for stride and he's installed here at 6-1. And was 4.90 in that effort. and BTW I did see the Bump that they are mentioning and it was a 6/7 on a scale of 1-10. a good bump and pinched later,,,and he's a sneaky contender here too at a fair price. But I'm hunting KILLER WHALE in this race. But will use with the 11.

The Horse is ugly....I have to really stretch to see this horse. But I see it....juuuuuuuuuuust enough to kee going.

Cheap Horse with some Good Turf on the wrong side...But its not the first time I've bet SIRE Turf breeding when the horse has gotten a nibble at the surface and shows a Liking to it.


. Fortunate Lady Bred 5 turf winners from 8 starters. and on the sire side..50% of .Nuryevs Progeny have won on grass.. and he's once removed by Romanov (ire) Her Mare , fortunate Faith won the GRD2 demoiselle going mile and 1/8th at 2YO. Horse has some run in him. Also Fortunate Faith was Fortunate Propects 2nd best performer...winning 5 times ($250K)

This Horse wants to be race horse....it may be he'll be running clm4000n1y at Penn National twice a Month,,,,,or he may have a race in him Today.

as far as the musical Jockeys.. Look at the card. Everybody is up in Saratoga. 5%'rs will be on FAVS this week. Esponiza Just got his FIRST win....this week. This is when the 2nd , 3rd, 4th tier Jocks get their wins so they can eat.

As far as the favorite ...the 12 (2-1) He was'nt getting to that wiinner Seaquest...sequest was drawing away.

It appears he is READY to Blast off a 2nd time out improvement and win this race. But I'm not sure.

LAST EFFORT

It was a 3 horse wide TOUGH stretch run...Horse was ALL out. He might and I THINK,,,,that race took alot out of him.

I'll invest a wee bit in a STAB like this.

I'll bet him in all 3 spots(not show, 3rd hole in tri's)...under and around a few others plus a WP STAB..and some cheap doubles. I'll throw down between 50 and 75 bucks on a wild stab like this to start the card......

[Suff]

now on one Other subject... ODDS...

Lets assume this horse does run 1st , 2nd or 3rd....or just for the hell of it lets say he runs a 4th beatan less than 2 lengths and i get STUGATZZZ..

Prior to the race

I beleive that I could print this Post. Make 1000 copies. Put a HUGE sign on me that says "I like the 11, he's 65-1".

I could walk around the Belmont clubhouse with MY SIGN ON... and pass out my 1000 copies of this post. and STILL he would be 65-1.

The idea that a single software or a single (or group) PICK seller can influence this Horse or any OTHER horse at NY is a HUGE stretch.......Maybe in a slim downed 5 horse field.....

But this post coulda been on the evening news last night and this horse will STILL be 65-1.

Probably BECAUSE I am wrong and the horse has NO SHOT and anyone can see that.

But also....Because even if people think I make a good case. They aint got the Hangers to make this bet.


This is why I Like posting selections. Because as a Horse player and fan. I'm equally as interested in winning Money on this horse. But as a Handicapper and Fan I want to see the horse run well... Because I've laid him out. I'm invested Mentally and emotionally in how this horse runs. In a way I feel like a mad scientist that wants to prove that my theories work.

If he runs very poorly.....I'll feel as if My ship might be a little of course and I'm testing methods that are proven Failures.

I like to be invested in ALL ways when I play the races. Thats why Proffessional playing is never for me. I'm to emotional. I'm to prideful, and I'm to stupid to know better...that I should probably stay away from this horse.

But I'm not.

[Suff]

great news.

My 2 hour investment and theory will be Tested.

He aint scratched. And that thought crossed my mind as I was watching races at racereplays.com at 9:30 am.

[Suff]

still pouring over him. I saw another thing that helped me make my mind up...another angle I use.

This horse cannot compete on dirt at this level,,,, That much we know. Still he's on two tickets from 15 trys... Very poor I know..

But take each race on face? His 2nd BEST liftime beyer was at the distance. Good point.

and he has about 8 Multiple winners coming outof those races he got trounced in

New York Rudy
PackinGlackin
Cap Pogue
Cabo Wabo

Couple of those Cabo Wabo races where he lost by Football fields

Cabo Wabo is a 4/5 -8/5 horse at this level on dirt. I'm discounting those thrashings....and I'm UPGRADING his HIGH beyer at the distance where he was 5th to MR. Stone. Jerry Bailey up at $0.peanuts.

[JustRalph]

I follow you on this one...I love some of your angles and you have seen the tape. I haven't. I will look hard at it. I looked at the race real quick this morning and I kind of Like the 9 for some of the same reasons, at a good price. If he takes to the turf.....might be tough.

[Suff]

Can't toss this theory. Almost had a lil sumthin sumthin.

Trust me...he won;t be 85-1 next time.

[Suff]

Tell me I was'nt the only one who stood up when he made that move halfway into the turn? H AHAHA

[Suff]

one final note. the only other Horse I touted. the 5. The $22.00 horse . 2nd underneath $155.00 EX.

[Suff]

PLus I took the 1-1 out of the winners circle.
Trying to make myself feel better. I miss that $62.00 already

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

Originally posted by Sufferindowns
Tell me I was'nt the only one who stood up when he made that move halfway into the turn? H AHAHA

MIKE ,

WE WERE ON THE SAME PAGE . I DID THE RACE ON
FORMULATOR . THE TOP THREE HORSES WERE

FIRST YOU DREAM
LIFE AT SEA
SIR MANFRED

GOT A LITTLE EXCITED MYSELF

JIMMY

[Suff]

OK... Lets use this as an example to talk about Manual Handicapping and Handicapping In general. Quickly before PA puts us in General Handicapping forum.

Will you agree with me that the 11 Ran a Very inspiring race and is Clearly a different animal on Grass.? I assume everyone would agree..

I think if you stopped that race 3/4s of the way through the FAR turn and RE-BET the race.. The 11 would be 9-2 on the board.

And I belive depending on where he spots next , will likley be near there at this level next out? And he might win and pay anywhere from 9 dollasr to 19 dollars. Will you agree with that Jim?

Ok here's we're I go off the "MAINSTREAM" in betting theology.

I believe that if you bet this horse next time out and he wins and pays $15.00. You've insured yourself as a "HIGH POTENTIAL" loser at the business of Handicapping. Why?

Thats not Handicapping. Thats betting Current form. Betting Current form is a FOOLPROOF way to lose money at Handicapping.

Profitable Handicapping requires that you sniff BETTER form from a horse with little or no form to compete with the field he's spotted in. If you cannot do that. I don;t care how many $15.00 winners you have. You will lose overall betting current form.

I had something here.. More than a run-n-gun HOPE FOR THE BEST... That horse rated nicely ,,, took to the surface , made a classic move that wins alot of races and was semi-badly overrun in the stretch. But he was racing...and he was in with a HUGE shot at one point if he shook clear.

I'm suggesting that if you cannot find these horses with your naked eye.... you need to use software.....because you'll never be profitable.

Strong Point.

[Suff]

so.. To all you SOFTWARE WRITERS....and to ALL YOU TIP SELLERS

I am saying quite Boldly...... That when I see your posts and I see your WWW sites and your touting

"2nd Choice $16.80 WINNER in the 1st".

Your touting how to lose at handicapping.

And I don't mean ALL SOFTWARE writers...and I don't mean ALL TIP SELLERS... I think we have excellent programs avalailable. from Excellent sources right here on this Board.....

and I further said that if you cannot EYEBALL horses like this...YOU NEED SOFTWARE...

But I am saying 75% of the software and TIP sheets are

"HOW TO LOSE MONEY AT HORSE RACING SLOWER"

[Suff]

btw. Doctor says it helps when i type to myself.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Sufferindowns
so.. To all you SOFTWARE WRITERS....and to ALL YOU TIP SELLERS
I am saying quite Boldly...... That when I see your posts and I see your WWW sites and your touting
Your touting how to lose at handicapping.

Hey....Suff

Your 11 beat my 9. But had I listened to my software (ES) I would have had the tri. It had 6-5-7

I played 10 across on the 9 and 11 just for the fun of it. I was standing up with you.......

[Suff]

ahhh... Point is. the 5. I said the 5 was a Logical and sneaky contender at a fair price....and I said next that I was whale hunting. So I "HAD" the 5 as well.... But Your ES had the 7 3rd.

I guess your saying that the "Software" suggested you play thier 3rd choice over thier first and 2nd? And suggested a Tri Box? and ex box? I have no reason to think it did'nt.. I'm just saying...

I was'nt really after a Piece of that $155.00 exacta... I was after BIG GAME.... I set out into the race thinking the Favorites a big phony and will be had....I suppose I coulda and shoulda stopped on the 5 and used him in the way I used the 11 and Made a score there....6 was obvious contender at 2-1 and was your softwares TOP selection. So if the Software said bet the 6 STRONG...You woulda been beat there....

But thats not my point really...

My point is.... WHO had it? me? Because I gave you 2 horses and my 2nd was 11-1 and ran 2nd in a $155.00 ex and 400 dollar tri. the 6 was obvious and did'nt need pointing out...and was 2-1...

But again.....It sounds like your software saw that race very nicely...and it goes to my point. If You can't CAP 20.00 horses first and 2nd,,,you need software.

[JustRalph]

I am liking the 5 horse here in the fifth on the stretch out..? if he gets the right pace.....should be there late.

Probably making a fool of myself but....what the hell, I am in a good mood. I usually don't play maiden winners next time out.... though....

[JustRalph]

Got it handed to me.....5 went last and my software picked the winner.......and yet again I ignored it. ...... at 7-1

why buy it if I am not gonna use it , huh?

[Speed Figure]

Ralph, Your one of the top ES user's. What are you doing?

[JustRalph]

Tell me about it...... just having fun...you know.....waiting on HoL

[Suff]

Must get this factored into the Software contest if it ever gets going. A Little Tougher than it looks huh....

Anyway.... Buyers (users) NEVER play like Robots and use the selections religously like ES would have liked in this case.

If the contest gets going....we should take ONE moderately priced winner down because we KNOW...users don't play that way. If its going to be a realistic contest.

[SAL]

Damn Suff, I aspire to be the "surgeon" that you are. I will be the first to admit that I am a "current form" handicapper. I don't scope out the triple digit bombs like you do. But I'm tryin' to learn.

Hope you post some more "whale hunts", even if they don't win I like seeing the reasoning behind your picks.

[Suff]

Sal... Thanks


Heres the thing.... I've been posting Double digiit winners in here at a rate of two a month for over a year now.....sometimes more... had times where I had a few in ONE week.

Its hard to get people to come in and seriously talk about how I came up with it and why... People think I'm trying to draw attention to my score..... but i'm not..


I've Posted many scores.... That thrill has worn off.

here was a good example....A horse that ran very well... BuT did'nt win. I thought I could get a Little banter about Manual Handicapping going.... Because I have some odd views of handicapping and wagering, and I'd like to air them out and see what they look like in the middle of the room...

I'd like to get others to kick my ideas around and Throw them back at me with thier own inetrpratation....

For some reason... Either people don't want to talk about how to do it... Or they don't want to talk about it here..


I can pick horses... what I'm trying to do is to get better at it and to get better at how to USE these horse, and what amount I shoud risk and how...

I know why software is successful... on top of the fact that it works of course

Because..not only do people NOT want to do the work to come up with horses... The don't even want to talk about it. Even thats to much. They don't want to hear about the selections..they just want the selection.

I have alot more to say about Manual Handicapping but I can't right now.

I'm stepping into surgery.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Sufferindowns
[B]OK... Lets use this as an example to talk about Manual Handicapping and Handicapping In general. Quickly before PA puts us in General Handicapping forum.

Will you agree with me that the 11 Ran a Very inspiring race and is Clearly a different animal on Grass.? I assume everyone would agree..

I think if you stopped that race 3/4s of the way through the FAR turn and RE-BET the race.. The 11 would be 9-2 on the board.

And I belive depending on where he spots next , will likley be near there at this level next out? And he might win and pay anywhere from 9 dollasr to 19 dollars. Will you agree with that Jim?

MICHAEL,
I AGREE WITH WHAT YOU ARE SAYING TO A POINT .
LIKE YOU I SIT AND TRY TO SNIFF OUT THOSE LONGSHOTS.
SITTING DOWN WITH THE FORM IS BETTER THEN, WELL ALLMOST BETTER THEN SEX. LIKE YOU I LIKE TO MAKE MONEY THE OLD FASHION WAY ( SMITH BARNEY DAYS ) WE EARN IT.
I WOULD THINK BY NOW YOU KNOW BE BETTER THEN THAT .
JUST BECAUSE I'M CURIOUS ABOUT A PARTICULAR PROGRAM DOESN'T MEAN I CHANGED MY APPROACH TO HANICAPPING .
I SAT DOWN AND DID THE CARD LIKE I ALLWAYS DO.
I SEPARTED THE CONTENERS FROM THE PRETENDERS .
AFTER I DID THE CARD MANUALLY , I RAN THE FORMULAR PROGRAM.
I LIKED THE HORSE AFTER I DID THE RACE MANUALLY , WHEN THE PROGRAM SPIT THE HORSE OUT I JUST LIKED IT BETTTER .
WHEN WE GET TO SARATOGA WE CAN ALL SIT AROUND THE CAMPFIRE ONE NIGHT AND DISCUSS THIS A LENGHT .

HAVE A NICE DAY SEE YOU IN THE WAR ROOM LATER ?

JIMMY

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Sufferindowns
Because..not only do people NOT want to do the work to come up with horses...

Suff:
Some of us do both. I always manually handicap the horses from the form before I run the software. I won't kid you, if I find an extra hour or so and decide to cap a race by just dropping in and it is very close to post time, I will go to the software's picks and cap the card backwards. Per se. But if you know your software and agree with what it finds and it only takes a few minutes (just for action style bets) it can be a fun hour or so. I have found some nice ones this way. I dropped one in your email box a while back that I found with 6 minutes to post. It was such an opportunity that I graduated from action bet to dropping 20 across on the horse. Without the software and working backwards, I would have never scored on a $44 horse. There are caveats to this approach. You begin to lean on the software too much. Some of the worse days I have ever had were because I relied on the software to make more of the decisions for me. These tend to happen when I try to play when I really don't have time. I usually do it with exotics and just have some fun watching the races. If you are not careful you can run through $200 worth of little exotic bets playing around throughout the day. You must realize your own personal strengths and weaknesses and then access the software. I can still show up to any track and buy the form and probably do ok. But my particular software makes me better, all things considered. All things considered I would rather have it. Especially the new version. It looks like it is going to really be nice. But....the same caveats abound. If you can do it manually, and use your software in an effective manner, I think you have the best of both worlds. The guys who I have capped with via our software board are all pretty damn good cappers without the software. The discussions we have all relate to manually capping the card and then we turn to what the software shows us. The combining of the two is an art all its own in my opine. But I can tell you that it adds a different dimension to the game. For a guy like me who lives and breathes computers for a living it allows me to use a computer for something that is fun. As opposed to trying to figure out why one is broken. Or in my case helping my techs help users who have a gazillion problems. If it were not for horse racing and being a news junkie I probably wouldn't use the computer at home. Kind of like an auto mechanic who does his best not to work on the neighbors car. It is work for him. The shade tree mechanic thing doesn't appeal to him. There was a time where I didn't use a computer at home. I had one for email and that was about it. That was before the ponies........:cool:

[Suff]

Originally posted by JustRalph
Suff:
. The discussions we have all relate to manually capping the card and then we turn to what the software shows us. The combining of the two is an art all its own in my opine. But I can tell you that it adds a different dimension to the game. about it. That was before the ponies........:cool:

yes I see,,,and I know...you use the software as an ehancement. For time reasons and also...I'm sure it points you to a horse that you or I might otherwise skip right past...and thats all good... i;m not suggesting that isn't. I know your group and it is a solid goup...and I would'nt even attempt to compromise thier ability,,, a talented group over at ES no doubt.

my points are not in contradiction with software.. they are in support of it.

[John]

"Sufferin" He is something else,isn't he. Most people that read his post won't answer because they don't know what he talking about.They cannot understand his philosophy of Handicapping.nether do I and I talk with him all the time.Sufferin's has a mind-set that is second to none.He is very informative about the whole picture of New York racing. While I will study a horse that Frankel trains and Jerry Baily rides. Sufferin is articulate enough to know that that combination is 3/5 at post time and looks at others in the race. I believe that the longer I look at a horse the better he looks to win.Sufferin, Has a knack to bypass these horses and He is very good at picking good price winners.That is why in the long run I lose and he wins.

Sufferin is right when he says, that no software will give that insight that brings it right down to your guts.Most of us want to use our software, punch up a number and go with it.

You know, Suff, I did not say this ,but it is true
" NO GUTS NO GLORY "