Arkansas Derby ... Weakest Million-Bucker Ever ?

[toetoe]

Purse of one million and Grade I status ? Pee-yew. (:Holding nose.)



Going with Northern Giant. Tell no one.

[Robert Fischer]

agreed. awful million dollar race, awful G1

Borel probably controls this race with Super Saver

[OTM Al]

Noble's Promise over Uh Oh Bango and Dublin. Don't like Super Saver one bit. And it's not that bad a field. 9 horses and 6 have been players.

[toetoe]

I liked Uh Oh Bango that time versus Rule, but he's a player here, and he's not a clasic type by any stretch, is he ?

[Sekrah]

If Super Saver gets out in front with the lucky fractions Esky has gotten in his races, he will absolutely ANNIHILATE this field... 6+ length victory. NP and Uh Oh Bango, Dublin will be fighting for 2nd.

If he gets unlucky and catches another hot pace, a closer will grab it. Maybe Pulsion if you like a longshot.

[toetoe]

Two esses in classic. Definitely :2: (two). :blush:

[Watcher]

Why are people put off on Super Saver here?

[only11]

pulsion

[RockHardTen1985]

If Super Saver gets out in front with the lucky fractions Esky has gotten in his races, he will absolutely ANNIHILATE this field... 6+ length victory. NP and Uh Oh Bango, Dublin will be fighting for 2nd.

If he gets unlucky and catches another hot pace, a closer will grab it. Maybe Pulsion if you like a longshot.

Is this a joke? Esky LOL has not been in front either of his last 2 races.

[Sekrah]

What the hell are you talking about?

Eskendereya 2nd calls, 6 furlong times
Wood - 1/2 length back of 1:13.2 time
FOY - 1 length ahead of 1:12.2 time


Super Saver 2nd calls, 6 furlong times
TAM - Hd back of 1:11.3
KYJC - Hd ahead of 1:11.2


Esky has been up near the front of the pace in snoozers! If Super Saver is up front in the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:13, he steam rolls that field by 10 lengths.

If Esky catches a 1:11.2 in the Wood, he's not winning by 8 lengths, or perhaps at all.

Super Saver's BRIS E2's last 3 races: 103, 102, 106,
Eskendereya's BRIS E2's last 3 races: 90, 89, 91,

Both were up near the front in all 3 races and in all 3 races Super Saver had to run faster fractions early.

[Charlie D]

What the hell are you talking about?

Eskendereya 2nd calls, 6 furlong times
Wood - 1/2 length back of 1:13.2 time
FOY - 1 length ahead of 1:12.2 time


Super Saver 2nd calls, 6 furlong times
TAM - Hd back of 1:11.3
KYJC - Hd ahead of 1:11.2


Esky has been up near the front of the pace in snoozers! If Super Saver is up front in the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:13, he steam rolls that field by 10 lengths.

If Esky catches a 1:11.2 in the Wood, he's not winning by 8 lengths, or perhaps at all.

Super Saver's BRIS E2's last 3 races: 103, 102, 106,
Eskendereya's BRIS E2's last 3 races: 90, 89, 91,

Both were up near the front in all 3 races and in all 3 races Super Saver had to run faster fractions early.


Slow old boat that Eskendereya isn't it.

[Robert Goren]

As with all early three year old races, it is too early to tell how good this race is. It doesn't look great now, but by Labor Day we might think it was a barn burner. JMO

[Valuist]

The irony is that for years the Arkansas Derby was very strong for a Grade 2 and many felt it deserved Grade 1 status. So it gets Grade 1 status and it gets this field......pretty funny.

But I won't predict it will be the weakest Grade 1 of the year. Almost every year, that award goes to the Prioress. I guess I'll leave out the year Indian Blessing ran in it but other than that, somebody at NYRA must have blackmail pics on some of the grading committee.

[foregoforever]

The irony is that for years the Arkansas Derby was very strong for a Grade 2 and many felt it deserved Grade 1 status. So it gets Grade 1 status and it gets this field......pretty funny.

With FIVE mutually exclusive, Grade 1 final preps, plus several Grade 2's, they're all going to be thin. There aren't enough accomplished horses to fill that many races.

The solution, of course, is to elevate the grades on all the earlier preps, plus the 2-year-old races. Then we'd have stronger fields for the late preps. :rolleyes:

[LottaKash]

With Noble's Promise's "nemesis" Lookin at Lucky out of the way, I reall like Noble's chances in this one.....

Last year in the Breeders "baby-classic", I thought I was a winner at the top of the lane only to get caught deep in the drive by LAL....Then a few weeks ago, the same thing, a loss to LAL again, but this time a little closer, at that....I though I was gonna score in both of those contests....

Noble's Promise is a very game racehorse and he takes a whole of beating to get by him....For his pace/speed range, he is as game as they come, imo...LAL was all out to overtake him...

Perhaps a change in racing tactics might be in order, as he is always nearby throughout, and starts his run just before they turn the last corner....I am not sure how they could change his style, but by maybe starting his bid a little later might help, or sumpin

best,...

[Robert Fischer]

Why are people put off on Super Saver here?

probably some who bet on him in Tampa and others who didn't realize that Rose fouled him with Schoolyard Dreams and didn't allow him to change leads in Tampa.

Saver wasn't best in that race but still figured to win with the expected trip. However many thought SS was actually best going in and then not seeing the foul and resulting footwork problems would be likely to dismiss or downgrade.

[shouldacoulda]

Pulsion may be a contender if Nakatani left some fuel in the tank last out. He's also 1 of 2 that have ever run this distance. What I don't like is he finished out of the money both times. I don't know if this is worth a wager but definitely a watch.

[nijinski]

Pulsion may be a contender if Nakatani left some fuel in the tank last out. He's also 1 of 2 that have ever run this distance. What I don't like is he finished out of the money both times. I don't know if this is worth a wager but definitely a watch.
Biancone takes the blinkers off , I always consider his runners when he changes the equipment.

[PhantomOnTour]

I can't get behind those touting Noble's Promise or Northern Giant. Noble is a game runner, but loses ground in the lane almost every time when going long (3 outta 4 times), and is by Cuvee. How much further does he wanna go? Methinks he gets weary from keeping up with Super Saver and gets passed by a few in here. Northern Giant has 3 fast track dirt races and has yet to do better than 3rd...no thanks.

Dublin will have no excuse today. Nice post, positive jock switch (imo), and a darn near ideal pace set up.

Pulsion is interesting. I love his Beyer fig pattern for his Lay3 race today. Another poster made mention of the equipment change, blinks off, and I agree that it will help him. Was Nakatani told to gun him last time? Did they use that as a speed prep to sharpen him up? My question about him is if he needs bute to run well. At Dmr and OSA he ran on bute and did well. The 3 times he's run without it he's been beaten at least 7 lengths. I'm trying to make a case for him, but will need a very good price before using him in the top spot....12-1 or so and that's not likely.

Final analysis is that Super Saver shakes loose with Dublin breathing hard on him in the lane and maybe Pulsion comes a runnin'. Gut feeling is that Dublin sits and rolls home today. Don't the good Lukas KyDerby horses fire big time in their final prep?

[Sekrah]

I'll say this about Noble, and I'm certaintly not betting him in this race, but those 3 races he lost ground in the stretch he was simply outkicked by LAL and in the BCJuv, VOY. Those were slow fractions. He was coming home fast, but not faster than the others.

But I generally agree.. I don't think he'll like the extra distance. He's definently not bred for it being a Cuvee baby.

[GaryG]

I like Dublin, but it is very hard to bet on a horse trained by Dead Duck Darnell.

[hazzardm]

If Super Saver gets out in front with the lucky fractions Esky has gotten in his races, he will absolutely ANNIHILATE this field... 6+ length victory. .

I would love to see a big (enough) effort. Loaded up on all three future offerings. :cool:

[toetoe]

Don't the good Lukas KyDerby horses fire big time in their final prep?


Such as Northern Giant, maybe ? I know you said good horses, but ... :D .