Jockey Changes

[Robert Goren]

After getting no run out a horse at AQU , I was wonder how everyone feels about jockey changes announced the day of race. At first glance it doesn't appear to be a good sign, but I have no numbers to back that up.

[46zilzal]

After getting no run out a horse at AQU , I was wonder how everyone feels about jockey changes announced the day of race. At first glance it doesn't appear to be a good sign, but I have no numbers to back that up.
My goodness if you do not know WHY it makes no sense to even consider it. You have no first hand notion as to what happens to many of these guys who exercise in the AM. They could be simply sore from being thrown (one of the most common late jock changes I have seen over the years) flu, head ache.....all having NOTHING to do with any clandestine or nefarious manipulation.

You guys have seen too many movies and need to come to the racing office and see what really goes on there.

[Robert Goren]

I know all that. But still they don't seem to win very often.

[Brogan]

zilzal has it right. Unless you know the specific reason for the change, it doesn't mean a thing. Even when you know the specific reason, most of the time it still doesn't mean a thing.

[tzipi]

I used to make a nice buck couple years back because R.Dutrow used to have a top name jock on his horses and he would call a jockey change and put Rudy Rodriquez on them and everybody used to grumble and toss the horse. I figured Dutrow did it to get the better price because they won so many times. Horse would be like 3-1 with top jock and then jockey change would be annouced during the day with Rudy Rod on and you got 5-1 or 6-1 and the horses would win so many times. Even with 9-5 ML you'd get like 3-1.

By the way R. Rodriquez is 2-2 at the outter track Aqueduct meet as a trainer now. :ThmbUp:

[acorn54]

my research shows that with few exceptions jockeys are pretty much the same. the horse is the thing. a jockey of inferior talent doesn't stay very long as a jockey.

[Greyfox]

my research shows that with few exceptions jockeys are pretty much the same. the horse is the thing. a jockey of inferior talent doesn't stay very long as a jockey.

Jockeys are pretty much the same?
Where are you researching? Venus or Mars?
Obviously the horse is the most important component.
But a negative jockey switch is a must consideration in my handicapping.
There are inferior riders at every major oval who have been there for years.

[Relwob Owner]

my research shows that with few exceptions jockeys are pretty much the same. the horse is the thing. a jockey of inferior talent doesn't stay very long as a jockey.


I would be interested to see the research you are referring to....I think there is a huge difference from jockey to jockey and that they make a big difference on horses for a variety of reasons....as far as inferior jockeys not lasting long, I can mention quite a few who arent any good but still ride.

[acorn54]

yes your belief is what most bettors believe, as is proven by my research
it is true that the top jockeys win more frequently, but the catch is that they are overbet. whereas the less popular jockeys win less often but are underbet.

[Greyfox]

yes your belief is what most bettors believe, as is proven by my research
it is true that the top jockeys win more frequently, but the catch is that they are overbet. whereas the less popular jockeys win less often but are underbet.

That's a huge side step from saying "they're pretty much the same."

We're not talking betting, or betting odds, we're talking jockeys.

[acorn54]

well i don't really think it is a side step. the minor jockeys are competent enough to bring home the horses that look inferior on paper, thats all. i think if the minor jockeys got there fair share of the live mounts they would move up in the jockey standings at a meet. the trainers are not stupid, they are not going to let an inferior rider ride there horse in a race where it has a good shot to win the race.

[46zilzal]

my research shows that with few exceptions jockeys are pretty much the same. the horse is the thing. a jockey of inferior talent doesn't stay very long as a jockey.
Agreed...Only a very very few can move up a horse much as I see Ramon Dominguez do about every 5th time....The rest of the overbet times, the horse was much the best anyway

[Relwob Owner]

yes your belief is what most bettors believe, as is proven by my research
it is true that the top jockeys win more frequently, but the catch is that they are overbet. whereas the less popular jockeys win less often but are underbet.


Actually, I was talking from a betting and ownership perspective....your initial post didnt make any reference to betting, just a general thought that jocks are the same and that bad ones dont last, which I believe are both not true....

[lamboguy]

my guess on this subject would be if the jockey is in the building and decides to get off the horse, then the change tends to be a negetive. if he was in the place and the race in one of the last ones that would still be a negetive but not as bad as if it was in the middle of the card. in charlestown and mountaineer you have riders that get off the horses at the gate. out of about 500 incidents like that i think i might have seen 1 horse win out of the 500

[racefinder2]

I was wondering if the Rodriguez jockey youre talking about(for Dutrow)is the same one who was the listed trainer - I believe as 'Juan R Rodriguez' - when Dutrow was on suspension in the past?

T.I.A.

[Overlay]

For me, jockeys aren't a make-or-break factor from a betting standpoint, but merely one element in determining the odds that constitute an acceptable risk on any given horse. However, I think it's just playing the percentages to give more credit to horses mounted by a top rider at a given meeting, or by a jockey who has ridden the horse well previously, than to horses with a rider who fits neither of those descriptions.

[dartman51]

A GOOD jockey cannot make a BAD horse win, but a BAD jockey CAN make a GOOD horse lose. JMHO

[upset]

Handicappers are more concerned with the horses but spend some time with the trainers and all they talk about are the riders

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

It's amazing how many times a top two or three jockey on a circuit rides a horse for the first time with questionable form and wins or just gets beat at prices that are overlooked by the public.

The exceptions are the riders that are under contract, or regular riders for a certain trainer (Velazquez- Pletcher etc). Do these jocks know something about the horse that the betting public is not privy to based on the poor form on paper.

If you follow this angle you will see these top jockeys really have a 'live run' and you'll be amazed that a top jockey can score at such a high price. Yes, not all of them win but the percentage would surprise you especially in the wide open races including the full field grass races. Food for thought.

[shouldacoulda]

:
By the way R. Rodriquez is 2-2 at the outter track Aqueduct meet as a trainer now. :ThmbUp:

He (Rudy Rodriguez) was hit or miss as a jockey but seems to be much better as a trainer. I caught the second one but missed the first. Both had nice prices too. And there are only 2 weeks to Belmont.

[46zilzal]

A GOOD jockey cannot make a BAD horse win, but a BAD jockey CAN make a GOOD horse lose. JMHO
Agreed as one cannot make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.....

Julie Krone WORST ride I can recall when she strangled Forty Niner back to the DEAD rail in the Churchill Breeder's Cup Classic won by Alysheba where the colt he beat in the Travers and Haskell, allowed the free running style he was used to, was right there second, while Ms Krone was no where..

[Trotman]

46 here it is 12:27 :lol: eastern and I haven't checked all the threads but I'm thinking before dinner hour you are 1-9 to piss half of the posters off.

[46zilzal]

46 here it is 12:27 :lol: eastern and I haven't checked all the threads but I'm thinking before dinner hour you are 1-9 to piss half of the posters off.
Isnt this me and my shadow posting a bit dumb

let me tell all of your vendetta.

This clown, via private messages vowed the following threat:`Someone like me or anyone else sends you a PM and you dismiss them like their garbage without a reply. Don't ever jump into a thread about what is right or wrong with racing because I'll be on you like white on rice and so will many others.`

all about my not `jumping`when he wanted an old Sartin program.....

Takes all kinds of goons.

[ranchwest]

Everyone seems to leave out the importance of the jock's agent.

For eliminations, you have to know which jocks are not getting mounts because they are lousy riders as opposed to those who just aren't getting good mounts.

There's always the exception. I once saw a jock who had lost about 700 races in a row, never won. She had a mount that should have been 1/9 but because she was up the horse was about 3/1 IIRC. I bet the horse for one reason. It was on the outside in a one-turn race. She kept the horse way wide the whole trip and won easily. She almost blew it when she tried to whip the horse, but when she got up on its mane the horse took off like a rocket.

[point given]

I read this article at DRF with trainer Tony Dutrow lambasting Edgar Prado for his ride on his filly when a hole closed up on the rail and Prado had to severely check his mount/ Jara who came over on him got 7 days for careless riding, but Dutrow claims Prado willnot ride for him again. Jus a couple of years ago Prado was considered a premier rider. :confused:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112126.html

[46zilzal]

One of the things I've noticed that occasionally a good rider gets personal distractions in the way of their work.

One of our perennial leaders here was in a terrible slump making rookie errors in getting almost all his mounts into one type of trouble or another.

Only later did we find out that he was going through a nasty divorce and child custody battle and should have taken a break.

Also at the other end, you have the "too big for your britches" types: usually young riders who do well for a bit and get the "I can walk on water" syndrome and are only riding hard in the big money contests....We now have one like that here who is the contract rider for a leading owner.

[Robert Goren]

A lot of good jockeys sit on the rail waiting for a hole. If they think they have the best horse by quite a bit they go outside. Watch RD at AQU and you will see him on the rail a lot. Sometimes the hole doesn't open up or a horse comes over and fills it, But it is there 9 times out of ten. The jockey just have to brave enough go through it. If watch enough races you can tell who the scared jockeys are. They are the ones on the outside of the pack hoping they enough horse to make up for the ground they lost. JMO

[Robert Goren]

Only later did we find out that he was going through a nasty divorce and child custody battle and should have taken a break.No one going through a nasty divorce and child custody battle can afford to take a break. The lawyers want their money. JMO

[Trotman]

Robert your correct there,how can you take a break you just got to get through it like the hole on the rail. But as Timmy started to blow, one of our perennial riders that sums it all up for me. These jockeys from Hastings Park are THE bottom of the barrel and from now on Timmy's post's are nothing but HOT AIR for me and will not post any negativity behind his posts because I truly feel sorry for him.

[Greyfox]

from now on Timmy's post's are nothing but HOT AIR for me and will not post any negativity behind his posts because I truly feel sorry for him.

Hopefully, you'll stick to that decision.

[Trotman]

Greyfox I never promise anything and not keep it. If you want to soak up his BS it has nothing to do with me. :ThmbUp:

[completebill]

As a bit of trivia, I believe that no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby with a jock change from it's previous race.

[gm10]

After getting no run out a horse at AQU , I was wonder how everyone feels about jockey changes announced the day of race. At first glance it doesn't appear to be a good sign, but I have no numbers to back that up.

I know a nice story. It took place in England but you will appreciate it anyway, I'm sure.

Some years ago, a horse was making its debut for a quite well-known trainer. You have to understand that in the UK there aren't any published workouts, so you have to look at other signs to judge how good a newcomer is. On this particular occasion, the trainer who didn't specialize in first-time winners had booked a very low % jockey, which led the tipsters, analysts and general betting public to assume that the horse had no chance of winning, so the horse was a big price on the day.

The horse was running in the first race of the day. The jockey was being driven to the track by a female assistant of the trainer (they all live in Newmarket, anyway). However, she been instructed by the trainer to get lost and make sure that the jockey would be too late for the first race. She carried out her task to perfection. The jockey was late.

So here we are. A big longshot making his debut and the jockey doesn't even show up. How does it end, you ask? Top jockey Kieren Fallon (who knew about the scheme all along) 'accepted' to ride as a substitute, and the horse duly hacked up. Touch landed.

[Trotman]

gm10 good story, as EASTIE would say
NOW WE"RE ALL IN

[46zilzal]

Greyfox I never promise anything and not keep it. If you want to soak up his BS it has nothing to do with me.
Another grandstander talks but knows very little it seems.

Riders from the West coast who do quite well at Woodbine: Gerry Olguin and Justin Stein and past apprentice of the year in North American and rider of the Canadian Triple Crown winner Izvestia, Mickey Walls...In 1991 he became the first apprentice jockey to be voted the Sovereign Award and the United States' Eclipse Award in the same year.

Where did George Wolfe begin his career? Vancouver along with Seabiscuit's regular rider Red Pollard.....Colwood Park, on Vancouver Island.
It was probably here that Red won his first race in 1926......Russel Baze was born there. Prominent rider from Alberta the little known Johnny Longden happened to have his tack here.

The Avelino Gomez award winners from 2005 Sam Krasner and 2001 Chris Loseth. The Canadian equivalent to the Wolfe award given out at Anita each year.

I would hardly call any of these riders BOTTOM of the barrel.

[Greyfox]

Prominent rider from Alberta the little known Johnny Longden happened to have his tack here.

.

Johnny Longden little known??? I think anyone who's ever studied the history of horse racing knows of Johnny Longden.

[therussmeister]

Johnny Longden little known??? I think anyone who's ever studied the history of horse racing knows of Johnny Longden.

I'm about 98.6% sure he meant that as sarcasm.

[Brogan]

Johnny Longden little known??? I think anyone who's ever studied the history of horse racing knows of Johnny Longden.
IRONY...look it up.

[Greyfox]

I'm about 98.6% sure he meant that as sarcasm.

I'd like to think you were right. But he wouldn't have combined "little known" + "prominent" if that was the intent. Humor and wit are not part of his "schtick."